Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Bearish; Polysilicon: Sideways [4] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production plan of large Xinjiang factories will have a significant impact on the industrial silicon fundamentals. The polysilicon market is facing issues such as high inventory and difficulty in spot transactions, and its price increase depends on production cuts and downstream price trends. The prices of organic silicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are all under pressure, and their price rebounds may rely on administrative measures [11][12][15] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2509 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 7980 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price of East China oxygenated 553 increased by 450 yuan/ton to 8750 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 350 yuan/ton to 8050 yuan/ton. The PS2508 contract of polysilicon increased by 2195 yuan/ton to 35510 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of N-type re-feeding material increased by 300 yuan/ton to 34700 yuan/ton [9][10] 2. Polysilicon Policy Game, Pay Attention to Shorting Opportunities on Industrial Silicon Rebounds - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon futures fluctuated this week. Yunnan and Sichuan increased their furnace openings, while Xinjiang reduced production. The weekly output was 72,000 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 3.92%. The social inventory increased by 10,000 tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 23,000 tons. If the large factory maintains 48 furnaces in operation, the industrial silicon may see a monthly inventory reduction of 60,000 tons; if it resumes full production at the eastern base, it may see a monthly inventory increase of 30,000 tons [11] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of organic silicon remained stable this week. Some factories carried out maintenance or reduced production, and some resumed work. The overall enterprise operating rate was 70.44%, the weekly output was 46,600 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 0.21%, and the inventory was 49,500 tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.39%. It is expected that the price will mainly operate stably [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon futures rose significantly this week. The N-type re-feeding material price increased to 36 yuan/kg on July 2. However, the downstream silicon wafers are in a cash loss state, and the spot is difficult to trade. In July, the polysilicon production schedule will increase to 107,000 tons, leading to a monthly surplus. As of July 3, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 272,000 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2,000 tons [12] - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of silicon wafers continued to decline this week. The inventory of silicon wafer factories was 19.22GW as of July 3, a week-on-week decrease of 0.89GW. It is expected that the production schedule in July will be adjusted down to about 52GW, and the price has a sign of stopping falling [13] - **Battery Cells**: The price of battery cells continued to decline this week. The inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 11.53GW as of June 30, a week-on-week decrease of 4.8GW. It is expected that the production schedule in July will be adjusted down to about 50GW, but the production reduction may be insufficient, and the inventory will still accumulate. The price may continue to decline [13] - **Components**: The price of components continued to decline this week. The initial production schedule of component factories in July is about 45GW, and the price is difficult to be supported fundamentally. The price rebound may rely on administrative measures [14] 3. Investment Recommendations - **Industrial Silicon**: It is recommended to pay attention to shorting opportunities on industrial silicon rebounds, and pay attention to position management when building positions on the left side [15] - **Polysilicon**: It is recommended to wait and see. Consider taking profit on the PS2508 - 2509 positive spread at an appropriate time [15] 4. Hot News Summary - In May 2025, the utilization rate of national photovoltaic power generation was 94.2%, and that of wind power was 93.2% [16] - The first - phase 25GW monocrystalline silicon wafer project of Trina Solar's Huai'an base was completed and put into operation, and the second - phase project is under construction. The total planned investment of the project is 30 billion yuan [16] - On July 3, Tongwei Co., Ltd.'s subsidiary completed a strategic capital increase of 4.916 billion yuan and introduced 11 strategic investors [17]