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东吴证券晨会纪要-20250623
Soochow Securities· 2025-06-23 02:32
Macro Strategy - The Federal Reserve did not lower interest rates in June and removed the judgment of higher unemployment and inflation from its statement, indicating a more stagflationary economic outlook [1][11] - The Fed revised down the US GDP growth forecast for Q4 2025 from 1.7% to 1.4% and raised the unemployment rate forecast from 4.4% to 4.5% [11] - The PCE inflation forecast for Q4 2025 was increased from 2.7% to 3.0%, with core PCE rising from 2.8% to 3.1% [11] Industry Analysis - In April 2025, the domestic installed capacity of new energy increased by 214.7%, with 45.22 GW added, marking the highest monthly increase for solar power in the first half of the year [5][17] - The global solar market is expected to grow, with a forecasted 10% increase in new installations in 2025 under neutral conditions, and up to 30% under optimistic scenarios [17] - The wind power sector is experiencing growth, with a 20% increase in land wind turbine bidding in the first five months of 2025 [17] Company Recommendations - BaiRun Co., Ltd. is expected to achieve revenues of 3.5 billion, 4 billion, and 4.7 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 810 million, 970 million, and 1.18 billion yuan respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [6][19] - YaSheng Pharmaceutical is projected to see rapid revenue growth, with forecasts of 519 million yuan and 3.215 billion yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, also maintaining a "buy" rating [7] - Top Cloud Agriculture is expected to benefit from the development of smart agriculture, with projected revenues of 659 million, 875 million, and 1.136 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, receiving a "buy" rating [8]