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宁王:港股溢价超20%,锂电龙头要来价值重估了?
海豚投研· 2025-07-05 08:13
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance and market dynamics of CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited) following its listing on the Hong Kong stock exchange, highlighting its stock price increase and potential for value reassessment in the context of domestic and international battery markets [1][2]. Domestic Battery Market - The overall demand and supply in the domestic battery market remain stable, with a sales/production ratio of over 70%. The introduction of a new tax on new energy vehicle purchases in 2025 is expected to support terminal demand [3]. - CATL's market share in China is declining, primarily due to the increasing market share of LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) batteries, which are favored for their cost-effectiveness amid intense competition [5]. - Despite the decline in market share, CATL's position is expected to stabilize in 2025 due to policy controls on price wars and a balanced supply-demand relationship [5]. International Battery Market - In Europe, CATL is anticipated to see significant growth, with the market share increasing from 35% in 2024 to 44% in early 2025, driven by rising demand for electric vehicles and favorable regulatory changes [10][13]. - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in Europe is projected to rise, with expectations of reaching 28%-30% by 2025, which will further boost CATL's sales [13]. - CATL is expanding its manufacturing presence in Europe to enhance competitiveness and meet the growing demand for electric vehicles, with expected contributions of 40-50 GWh in battery output [14][15]. Valuation Perspective - CATL's valuation is influenced by its stable domestic market position and potential growth in Europe, with a projected P/E ratio of around 22 based on expected sales volumes [16]. - The company is seen as a core asset in the Hong Kong market due to its scarcity and the anticipated influx of passive investment following its inclusion in major indices [18][20].