东吴证券主要观点如下： 供给：增量供给为非矿、澳矿、国内盐湖，增量多集中于26H2 中性情况下，26年全球锂矿供给214万吨，新增44万吨，若津巴布韦锂精矿出口恢复低于预期，则实际 新增更低；27年262万吨，新增48万吨；28年303万吨，新增41万吨。其中，26年增量主要来自：国内盐 湖新增8.4万吨(麻米措、察尔汗、拉果措)、国内矿山6.6万吨(枧下窝复产、新疆红柳滩、党坝、加达、 湘源矿)、海外盐湖6.9万吨(3Q、Mariana和CO)、澳矿的7.8万吨(泰利森和皮尔巴拉以及Marion等矿山达 产)、非矿11.5万吨(中企产能打满，同时Manono、Sandawana、海南矿业爬坡，以及尼日利亚等增量)， 并且新增产能多集中26Q3。 供需：26全年偏紧，Q1和Q4最紧缺，Q2-3相对缓解，28年或过剩 智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，中性情况下，26年全球锂矿供给214万吨，新增44万吨，若 津巴布韦锂精矿出口恢复低于预期，则实际新增更低；27年262万吨，新增48万吨。供需端，26Q1和Q4 最为紧缺，Q2-Q3供给紧缺阶段性略微缓解，但26Q4将出现供给短缺。价格端，锂价合理中枢15 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on lithium carbonate, predicting a price upcycle over the next two years, with a reasonable price center at 150,000 CNY/ton, and potential spikes above 200,000 CNY/ton due to supply constraints [2][3]. Core Insights - Demand for lithium carbonate is expected to exceed expectations, driven by robust growth in electric vehicle (EV) and energy storage sectors, with projected global lithium battery demand reaching 2,886 GWh in 2026, a 30% increase [2][3]. - Supply is anticipated to be tight in 2026, particularly in Q1 and Q4, with a forecasted global lithium supply of 2.14 million tons, an increase of 440,000 tons from the previous year [2][3]. - The report highlights significant contributions from domestic salt lakes and various mining projects, with a focus on the production ramp-up in the second half of 2026 [2][3]. Supply Summary - The supply forecast indicates that in a neutral scenario, global lithium supply will reach 2.14 million tons in 2026, with an increase of 440,000 tons, primarily from domestic salt lakes and various mining projects [6][7]. - Key contributors to supply growth include domestic salt lakes, domestic mines, and overseas projects, with significant contributions expected from companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Zijin Mining [7][8]. Demand Summary - The demand for lithium carbonate is projected to grow significantly, with total demand estimates of 210,000 tons in 2026, 250,000 tons in 2027, and 285,000 tons in 2028, driven by the electric vehicle and energy storage markets [2][3]. Price Summary - The report anticipates a two-year price upcycle for lithium carbonate, with a reasonable price center at 150,000 CNY/ton, supported by supply-demand dynamics [2][3]. - Price fluctuations are expected, with potential spikes due to supply constraints, particularly in Q1 and Q4 of each year [2][3]. Stock Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with substantial lithium resources and profit elasticity, highlighting firms such as Ganfeng Lithium, Zhongjin Lingnan, and Yongxing Materials as key investment opportunities [2][3].