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碳酸锂周报:减产预期发酵,价格强劲反弹-20250728
Changjiang Securities· 2025-07-28 02:56
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be stable, with South American imports likely to supplement supply, and the demand from the energy storage terminal is good, with the production schedule of large battery cell manufacturers increasing in July. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be supported in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the short - term and continue to monitor the production cuts of upstream enterprises and the production schedule of cathode material manufacturers [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Weekly View Supply - side - Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased by 235 tons to 18,548 tons, and the output in June increased by 10.9% to 80,962 tons. Recently, many lithium mine projects have restarted production, but the production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices of re - review of mining rights transfer, affecting supply. In the first quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the room for further cost reduction is extremely limited. In June 2025, the import volume of lithium ore in China was 576,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.8%. The import volume of lithium carbonate was 18,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16% [4] Cost - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some manufacturers using purchased lithium ore. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes have certain profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure [4] Demand - side - The overall production schedule in July increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedule increasing by 10%. In June, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 129.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 51.4%. The total export was 24.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 27.9% and a year - on - year increase of 22.5%. The sales volume was 131.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 6.3% and a year - on - year increase of 41.7%. The new car replacement policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support the sales growth of the new energy vehicle market [5] Inventory - This week, the inventory of lithium carbonate showed a cumulative state, with the factory inventory decreasing by 850 tons, the market inventory decreasing by 524 tons, and the futures inventory increasing by 1,757 tons [5] Strategy Suggestion - It is expected that the import volume of South American lithium salts will supplement the supply. The overall supply is stable, and the price of lithium carbonate is expected to be supported in the short - term. It is recommended to hold long positions in the short - term and continue to monitor the production cuts of upstream enterprises and the production schedule of cathode material manufacturers [5] 2. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production, weekly and monthly inventory, average production cost, production and import volume of related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and battery materials, and the price of battery materials. However, specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only the data trends over different time periods are shown [8][10][13][15][17][23][25][27][31][33][35][37]