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赣锋锂业(002460) - 2026年3月31日投资者关系活动记录表
2026-03-31 11:30
Financial Performance - In 2025, Ganfeng Lithium achieved a revenue of CNY 23.082 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.08% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was CNY 3.41 billion, an increase of 16.13% compared to the previous year [2] - The company turned profitable in Q4 2025 after a period of losses, indicating an overall positive development trend [2] Revenue Breakdown - The lithium chemical segment accounted for approximately 56% of total revenue in 2025 [2] - The lithium battery segment saw growth, contributing around 36% to total revenue [2] - Other segments, including recycling and potassium fertilizer, made up about 8% of revenue [2] Production and Capacity - The Cauchari-Olaroz project produced 3.41 million tons of lithium carbonate in 2025, with an expected output of 35,000 to 40,000 tons in 2026 [2] - The Goulamina lithium spodumene project produced 336,600 tons of concentrate in 2025, with plans to reach full production capacity in 2026 [3] - The Sichuan Ganfeng lithium salt project completed production line debugging in the first half of 2025, achieving full capacity for lithium carbonate production [3] Market Outlook - Demand for lithium is expected to remain strong, driven by growth in energy storage and electric vehicle sectors [5] - Supply-side challenges include geopolitical issues and environmental regulations affecting resource projects [5] - The company is optimistic about lithium prices, which are supported by strong demand and limited supply growth [5] Strategic Initiatives - Ganfeng Lithium is enhancing its integrated operations across the lithium supply chain, including mining, chemical processing, battery production, and recycling [2] - The company is establishing a comprehensive recycling network in eight major cities to ensure a stable supply of raw materials [3] - Ganfeng is focusing on green energy initiatives, integrating wind, solar, and storage solutions to support sustainable production [3]
短期供给扰动加剧,碳酸锂价格强势运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 06:09
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The lithium carbonate price is running strongly due to short - term supply disturbances and good downstream demand, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Future attention should be paid to supply changes, downstream stocking rhythms, and the commodity market atmosphere. Short - term interval operations are recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 30, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 169,440 yuan/ton and closed at 171,620 yuan/ton, with a 4.53% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 199,887 lots, and the open interest was 237,761 lots (the previous day's open interest was 247,637 lots). The current basis was - 5,440 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 31,064 lots, a change of 953 lots from the previous trading day [1]. - According to SMM data, the battery - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 160,000 - 169,000 yuan/ton, a change of 6,500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate was quoted at 157,000 - 165,000 yuan/ton, a change of 6,000 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate was 2,335 US dollars/ton, a change of 100 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM statistics, most lithium salt plants have resumed production, and the domestic supply is generally stable, with an increase in supply this week. The weekly total output of lithium carbonate was 24,814 tons, including 15,314 tons of lithium carbonate produced from pyroxene, 3,227 tons from mica, 3,715 tons from salt lakes, and 2,558 tons from recycling [1]. Inventory - According to the latest SMM statistics, the spot inventory was 99,489 tons, a month - on - month increase of 616 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory was 17,332 tons, a month - on - month increase of 724 tons; the downstream inventory was 46,657 tons, a month - on - month increase of 552 tons; other inventories were 35,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 660 tons. The downstream and smelter inventories increased, while other inventories decreased, and the lithium carbonate inventory showed an inflection point this week [2]. Comprehensive Review - The recent rise in the market is mainly due to supply - side disturbances: 1) The export ban in Zimbabwe has lasted for one month, and the impact has not ended. According to the annual expected volume of 220,000 tons, the monthly impact volume is about 15,000 tons; 2) The resumption time of lithium mica mines in Yichun is to be determined, which affects the short - term market sentiment; 3) The Middle East war has pushed up oil prices. The diesel inventory in Australia can only last for 15 - 30 days. High oil prices affect the mining industry, causing market concerns about Australian ore supply. If the Middle East war lasts for a long time, the supply gap of lithium carbonate may exceed the initial expectation [2]. Strategy - The lithium carbonate price is strong. Among the non - ferrous sectors, lithium carbonate is the variety with the smoothest logic and the best fundamentals. Short - term supply disturbances are strong, downstream demand is good, and the long - term logic of energy security is smooth. Lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Future attention should be paid to supply changes, downstream stocking rhythms, and the commodity market atmosphere. Short - term interval operations are recommended [3]. - Unilateral: Short - term operations are the main focus. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None.
大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20260330
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 05:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 24,814 tons, a 2.59% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In February 2026, production was 83,090 physical tons, and next month's production is forecasted to be 106,390 tons, a 28.04% increase. February's import volume was 21,800 physical tons, and next month's is predicted to be 26,000 tons, a 19.27% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 107,734 tons, a 0.95% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 18,992 tons, a 3.08% increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - Cost side: The CIF price of 6% concentrate increased daily, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate was 159,158 yuan/ton, a 0.89% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 3,183 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica was 151,428 yuan/ton, a 3.96% daily increase, with a profit of 1,295 yuan/ton. The production cost on the recycling end is generally higher than that on the ore end, with negative production income. The quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end [9][10]. - Market outlook: Lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 164,220 - 174,540. The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance. The main risk points are the impact of shutdown, production reduction, or maintenance plans and the start time of industry clearance [9][13][14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply and demand: Supply is increasing, and demand shows a certain upward trend in inventory. The overall supply - demand relationship is in a state of tight balance [8][9]. - Cost and profit: The cost of lithium spodumene has increased, resulting in a loss, while the cost of lithium mica has also increased, but there is still a profit. The cost on the salt lake end is low, with sufficient profit margins [10]. - Market sentiment: There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include the production reduction plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in lithium carbonate imports from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply on the ore/salt lake end with limited decline [11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market data**: The closing prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of increase. For example, the closing price of 01 lithium carbonate futures was 169,380 yuan/ton, a 7.00% increase from the previous value. The price of lithium spodumene (6%) was 2,230 US dollars/ton, a 0.90% increase [16]. - **Supply - side data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 0.96% higher than the previous value. The monthly production of lithium carbonate decreased by 15.13%. The production of various sources such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and salt lake all decreased to varying degrees [19]. - **Demand - side data**: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate and other products decreased. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 12.20%. The monthly power battery loading volume decreased by 37.38% [19]. - **Inventory data**: The total inventory of lithium carbonate was 99,489 tons, a 0.62% week - on - week increase, lower than the historical average. The inventory of downstream enterprises was 46,657 tons, a 1.20% increase, higher than the historical average [10][19].
碳酸锂周报:南美供应增加,价格延续震荡-20260309
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2026-03-09 06:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of lithium carbonate shows that the supply side has some uncertainties, such as the non - resumption of the Ningde Jianxiawo mine, the suspension of all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports by the Zimbabwean Ministry of Mines, and the ongoing disturbances in Yichun's mining licenses. The cost of imported lithium spodumene concentrate has increased, and the weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased by 1,850 tons to 23,000 tons last week, with a 17.6% month - on - month decrease in February production. In December 2025, the import of lithium concentrate in China was 789,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%, and the import of lithium carbonate was about 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.4%. The demand side is in a pattern of strong supply and demand, with an overall increase in production scheduling in March. The inventory of lithium carbonate is in a destocking state this week. Considering the above factors, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to fluctuate [5][6][7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint 3.1.1 Supply - side Situation - The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased by 1,850 tons to 23,000 tons last week, and the production in February decreased by 17.6% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, the Zimbabwean Ministry of Mines has suspended all raw ore and lithium concentrate exports, and there are still disturbances in Yichun's mining licenses. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and there is extremely limited room for further cost reduction. In December 2025, the import of lithium concentrate in China was 789,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%. The top three countries in terms of import volume were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. The import of lithium carbonate in December was 23,989 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9%. The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, and the weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate smelting rose to about 55% [5]. 3.1.2 Demand - side Situation - In March, the overall production scheduling increased month - on - month, and the industrial chain is in a pattern of strong supply and demand. In January, the total production of power and energy - storage batteries in China was 168.0 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 16.7% and a year - on - year increase of 55.9%. The total export of power and energy - storage batteries was 24.1 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 26.0% and a year - on - year increase of 38.3%. The sales volume of power and energy - storage batteries was 148.8 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 25.4% and a year - on - year increase of 85.1%. The new - energy vehicle purchase tax policy is expected to continue to support the rapid growth of China's new - energy vehicle market sales [6]. 3.1.3 Inventory Situation - This week, the inventory of lithium carbonate is in a destocking state. The factory inventory decreased by 4,970 tons, the market inventory increased by 6,002 tons, and the futures inventory decreased by 2,131 tons [6]. 3.1.4 Strategy Suggestions - Considering the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still shut down, there are still risks in Yichun's mining licenses, and the subsequent import of South American lithium salts is expected to supplement the supply. On the demand side, the industrial chain is in a pattern of strong supply and demand. The suspension of exports by Zimbabwe and the risks in Yichun's mining licenses have led to concerns about supply disturbances. With the profit recovery, the production of lithium from ore continues to increase, and the cost center has shifted upwards. The resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo is postponed, the shipment of South American lithium salts increases, and the inventory continues to decline. Attention should be paid to the progress of Zimbabwe's export ban and the disturbances at the Yichun mining end. With both supply and demand increasing, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. 3.2 Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot - price trend of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of lithium carbonate (99.2% industrial - grade), monthly factory inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of imported lithium concentrate, production of power and other batteries, production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials in February 2026, difference between domestic power - battery production and loading volume, production of lithium iron phosphate, production of ternary materials, average production cost of lithium carbonate, average price of lithium iron phosphate (power - type), import volume of lithium spodumene, and market price of ternary materials (8 - series NCA type) [9][10][13][15][19][20][22][25][26][28][32][34][39][40].
碳酸锂周报 2026/3/2:关注资源进口情况-20260303
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is expected to be volatile. The export ban in Zimbabwe may have a phased impact on the transportation of lithium mines. With the expected improvement in demand in March, high lithium prices can still be supported. Future attention should be paid to whether the increase in imported lithium resources is timely and sufficient. If there are no major disturbances in the resource end, lithium prices may maintain a wide - range oscillation [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Lithium Carbonate Price - The futures price of lithium carbonate hit a new high this year. The main LC2605 contract opened at 160,000 yuan/ton, closed at 176,040 yuan/ton, with a high of 187,700 yuan/ton and a low of 157,100 yuan/ton during the week, up 15.33% [10] - The spot price increased week - on - week. The electric carbon spot price rose 28,250 yuan/ton to 172,000 yuan/ton compared with before the holiday. The electric/industrial carbon price difference remained flat week - on - week at 3,500 yuan/ton, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 3,150 yuan/ton to - 9,400 yuan/ton [3][18] 2. Lithium Ore - The spot price of domestic lithium ore and imported lithium ore increased week - on - week. The prices of domestic lithium spodumene concentrates with grades of 3% - 4%, 4% - 5%, and 5% - 5.5% increased by 1,100, 1,575, and 2,475 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of domestic lithium mica concentrates with grades of 1.5% - 2.0% and 2.0% - 2.5% increased by 600 and 960 yuan/ton respectively. The CIF prices of imported lithium spodumene ores with grades of 1.2% - 1.5%, 2% - 2.5%, and 3% - 4% increased by 5, 12.5, and 25 US dollars/ton respectively. The CIF prices of Australian and Brazilian lithium spodumene concentrates increased by 380 and 385 US dollars/ton respectively [25] - The total salable inventory of lithium ore at ports decreased week - on - week. As of February 27, the total inventory of domestic main port traders and warehouses for sale decreased by 11,000 tons to 141,000 tons compared with February 13 [27] 3. Lithium Carbonate - The weekly production increased. Last week, the domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 1,638 tons to 21,822 tons. In March 2026, the production is expected to increase by 23,300 tons to 106,390 tons month - on - month [37] - The production cost of purchasing lithium ore increased. The production cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O:6%) increased by 22,804 yuan/ton to 168,303 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 5,163 yuan/ton to 1,457 yuan/ton. Similar cost and profit changes were observed for other raw materials [41] - The total inventory decreased. As of February 26, the total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,839 tons to 100,093 tons. The registered warehouse receipts as of February 27 were 38,461 tons, a decrease of 298 tons compared with February 13 [48] 4. Cathode Materials and Electrolytes - **Ternary Materials**: The price decreased week - on - week. As of February 26, the weekly production decreased by 664 tons to 15,617 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased by 533 tons to 17,234 tons. The production in March is expected to reach 84,360 tons, a 19% increase month - on - month [56] - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The price increased. As of February 26, the weekly production increased by 300 tons to 89,150 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 459 tons to 92,556 tons. The production in March is expected to reach 430,400 tons, a 23.6% increase month - on - month [62] - **Cobalt Acid Lithium and Manganese Acid Lithium**: The production in March is expected to increase significantly. The production of cobalt acid lithium in March is expected to reach 8,480 tons, a 26% increase month - on - month. The production of manganese acid lithium in March is expected to reach 10,310 tons, a 32% increase month - on - month [66] - **Electrolyte**: The price remained flat week - on - week. The production of lithium hexafluorophosphate in February is expected to reach 24,870 tons, an 8% increase month - on - month, and the production of electrolyte in February is expected to reach 190,360 tons, a 10% decrease month - on - month [76] 5. Batteries - The production in March is expected to increase. The total domestic battery production in February was 169.01 GWh, a decrease of 24.99 GWh month - on - month. The total battery production in March 2026 is expected to reach 208.72 GWh, a 23% increase month - on - month [81] - The total inventory of domestic battery cells decreased. As of January 2026, the inventory of domestic power and energy - storage batteries was 143.2 and 34.2 GWh respectively, a decrease of 17.9 and 14.8 GWh respectively [83]
南华期货碳酸锂数据日报-20260212
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2026-02-12 11:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the latest data on lithium carbonate futures and spot markets, including price trends, trading volumes, open interests, and cost - profit analysis, to help investors understand the current situation of the lithium carbonate market [2][20][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range and Volatility**: The price range of the lithium carbonate main contract is expected to be in a wide - range shock between 120,000 and 200,000 yuan. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 115.2%, and the historical percentile of volatility in the past 3 years is 96.3% [2]. - **Contract Data**: The closing price of the main contract is 149,420 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 840 yuan (-0.56%) and a weekly increase of 16,640 yuan (12.53%). The trading volume is 304,798 lots, a daily decrease of 47,079 lots (-13.38%) and a weekly decrease of 226,926 lots (-42.68%). The open interest is 353,975 lots, a daily decrease of 2,556 lots (-0.72%) and a weekly increase of 24,198 lots (7.34%) [4]. - **CME and LME Futures**: CME and LME also have relevant lithium hydroxide futures data, including opening prices, highs, lows, last prices, changes, and settlement prices [14]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore and Salt**: The prices of various lithium ores and salts have shown different degrees of change. For example, the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 4,575 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 160 yuan (3.62%); the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 139,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 4,500 yuan (3.35%) [20]. - **Cell Materials**: The prices of various cell materials also fluctuated. The price of energy - storage lithium iron phosphate (2.5g) is 52,310 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,090 yuan (2.13%) [20]. - **Price Spreads**: The difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 3,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period [23]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main - continuous contract shows certain seasonal fluctuations. The basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands also vary, such as - 800 yuan for Shengxin Lithium Energy and 0 yuan for Tianqi Lithium Industry [29][31]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 37,282 lots, an increase of 1,755 lots from the previous day [34]. 3.4 Cost - Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore and the production profit of lithium hydroxide by causticizing/smelting methods show different trends. The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate and the export profit of lithium hydroxide and import profit of lithium carbonate also fluctuate [39][40].
天齐锂业(09696.HK)完成根据一般性授权同步发行于2027年到期的美元结算零息可换股债券
Ge Long Hui· 2026-02-11 10:26
Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium Industries (09696.HK) has successfully completed the issuance of bonds totaling RMB 2.6 billion, with all conditions of the revised subscription agreement met [1] Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The bonds were issued on February 11, 2026, and can be converted into H-shares under specified terms, with an initial conversion price set at HKD 51.85 per share [1] - If the bonds are fully converted at the initial conversion price, they will convert into approximately 56,481,896 H-shares [1] Group 2: Financial Implications - The total proceeds from the bond issuance amount to approximately HKD 2.929 billion, with the net proceeds (after deducting related commissions) expected to be around HKD 2.907 billion [1] - The net price per converted share, based on the initial conversion price, is approximately HKD 51.46 [1] - The net proceeds from the bond issuance are anticipated to be fully utilized by December 31, 2027 [1]
首创期货:下游低价刚需备货,碳酸锂2605合约早盘盘中一度涨超5%
Jin Rong Jie· 2026-02-11 04:16
Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate main contract opened strong, exceeding 144,500 yuan/ton with an increase of over 5%, driven by cost support and supply expectations [1] Supply Side - Overseas lithium ore prices have decreased, leading to a downward adjustment in cost support [1] - The resumption of production at the Zhangxiawo lithium mine has been delayed, and there are expectations of maintenance at lithium salt plants before and during the Spring Festival, narrowing supply expectations [1] - Exports of lithium carbonate from Chile to China have increased month-on-month, while the resumption of Brazilian lithium mines has somewhat alleviated production cuts [1] Demand Side - Downstream inventory levels are sufficient, and as the Spring Festival approaches, inventory depletion has slowed down, indicating that demand may not provide significant price support [1] - The inventory of domestic lithium salt plants in January was approximately 29,800 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons month-on-month, representing a 24.69% rise and an 8.01% increase year-on-year [1] - Downstream purchasing remains focused on low-priced inventory, with a recent increase in spot prices of lithium carbonate by 500 yuan/ton [1] Market Sentiment - The decline in precious metals last week has dampened market sentiment, leading to a correction in the main contract [1] - The overall supply and demand situation is weak, with inventory depletion slowing down, resulting in a rebound in the main contract today [1] - There are no upward drivers before the holiday, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate [1]
南华期货碳酸锂数据日报-20260210
Nan Hua Qi Huo· 2026-02-10 09:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. The report mainly provides various data related to lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide futures and spot markets. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price Range and Volatility**: The support level of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 120,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 110.1% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 96.0% [3]. - **Contract Performance**: The main contract's closing price is 137,340 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan (0.25%) daily but down 10,760 yuan (-7.27%) weekly. The trading volume is 295,231 lots, down 10,090 lots (-3.30%) daily and 324,311 lots (-52.35%) weekly. The open interest is 345,989 lots, up 1,918 lots (0.56%) daily but down 9,781 lots (-2.75%) weekly [5]. - **Spread Data**: The spreads between different contracts (e.g., LC2605 - LC2607, LC2605 - LC2609) show various daily and weekly changes [5]. - **CME and LME Futures**: CME's February 26th lithium hydroxide futures settlement price is 16.65, with different price and volume data for other months. LME lithium hydroxide futures data is also presented, but specific details are not fully described in the text [15]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore and Salt Prices**: The latest average prices of various lithium ores and salts are provided, such as lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) at 4,375 yuan/ton, battery - grade lithium carbonate at 136,000 yuan/ton (up 500 yuan, 0.37% daily), and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide at 123,200 yuan/ton (up 700 yuan, 0.57% daily) [22]. - **Price Seasonality and Trends**: Seasonal and historical price trends of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other related products are presented through charts, including six - fluoro lithium phosphate, phosphoric (manganese) iron lithium, and ternary materials [23][24]. - **Price Spreads**: The spreads between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in Japan, South Korea, and domestic prices are calculated and analyzed, showing daily and weekly changes [25]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Analysis**: The basis of the lithium carbonate main - continuous contract, the seasonal basis of the Ganglian - lithium carbonate main contract, and the basis of the near - month contract are analyzed through charts and data. The brand - specific basis quotes of different lithium carbonate producers are also provided [30][33][34]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 35,537 lots, up 940 lots (2.72%) daily and 2,453 lots (7.41%) weekly. The warehouse receipt data of different warehouses are detailed [5][37]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profits of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore (lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate) and the production profits of lithium hydroxide by causticization and smelting methods are presented through charts [40]. - **Delivery and Trade Profits**: The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, as well as the export profit of lithium hydroxide and the import profit of lithium carbonate, are shown in the charts [42][43].
碳酸锂周报:淡季排产减少,价格偏弱震荡-20260209
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 07:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that the production of lithium carbonate decreased by 375 tons to 23,685 tons last week, and the January production decreased by 3% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, and mines in Yichun and Qinghai are facing permit review. Overseas imports in December 2025 showed an 8.1% month - on - month increase in lithium concentrate imports, and a 9% increase in lithium carbonate imports. Some lithium ore - purchasing manufacturers face cost inversion, while self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises have profit support, and lithium hydroxide manufacturers face high cost pressure [5]. - On the demand side, the overall production schedule in February decreased month - on - month, while that of large battery cell factories increased in December. In December, the combined production of power and energy - storage batteries was 201.7GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. Exports were 32.6GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 49.2%, accounting for 16.4% of the monthly sales. The new energy vehicle market is expected to grow due to policies [6]. - In terms of inventory, lithium carbonate inventory is in a destocking state. Factory inventory increased by 1,010 tons, market inventory decreased by 6,575 tons, and futures inventory increased by 3,146 tons [6]. - It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate and adjust. Although the demand for exports is strong and the destocking trend continues, the supply is expected to be supplemented by South American lithium salt imports. Entering the off - season of power demand with increasing supply, the price will likely remain volatile [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Viewpoint Supply - Last week's lithium carbonate production decreased by 375 tons to 23,685 tons, and January production decreased by 3% month - on - month. The Ningde Jianxiawo mine has not resumed production, and Yichun and Qinghai production enterprises received mine permit review notices. Some mines in Jiangxi may face shutdown. In the third quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, with limited further cost - reduction space. In December 2025, China imported 789,000 tons of lithium concentrate, an 8.1% month - on - month increase. The top three importing countries were Australia, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria. Lithium carbonate imports in December were 23,989 tons, a 9% month - on - month increase [5]. - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate decreased week - on - week. Some manufacturers purchasing lithium ore face cost inversion, while self - owned ore and salt lake enterprises have profit support, and lithium hydroxide manufacturers face high cost pressure [5]. Demand - The overall production schedule in February decreased month - on - month, while that of large battery cell factories increased in December. In December, the combined production of power and energy - storage batteries was 201.7GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 14.4% and a year - on - year increase of 62.1%. Exports were 32.6GWh, with a month - on - month increase of 1.3% and a year - on - year increase of 49.2%, accounting for 16.4% of the monthly sales. The new energy vehicle market is expected to grow due to policies [6]. Inventory - This week, lithium carbonate inventory is in a destocking state. Factory inventory increased by 1,010 tons, market inventory decreased by 6,575 tons, and futures inventory increased by 3,146 tons [6]. Strategy Suggestion - From the supply side, the Ningde Jianxiawo mine is still shut down, and there are risks in Yichun's mine permits. January's domestic lithium carbonate production decreased by 3% month - on - month. December's lithium concentrate imports were 789,000 tons, an 8.1% month - on - month increase, and lithium carbonate imports were about 24,000 tons, an 8.7% month - on - month increase and a 14.4% year - on - year decrease. Strong downstream demand for exports and the destocking trend continue. It is expected that South American lithium salt imports will supplement the supply. - From the demand side, the production schedule in February decreased month - on - month, while it increased significantly in January due to export rush. The cathode production schedule in November increased by 2% month - on - month. There are continuous risks in Yichun's mine permits. With profit restoration, lithium production from ore continues to increase, and the cost center shifts upward. The resumption of production at Ningde Jianxiawo is postponed, and the pre - demand for battery exports drives downstream production increase. Inventory continues to decline, and South American lithium salt shipments increase. Attention should be paid to the disturbances at Yichun's mine end. Entering the off - season of power demand with increasing supply, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to fluctuate and adjust [6]. 3.2. Key Data Tracking - The document provides multiple data charts, including the spot含税均价 of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate, weekly inventory of lithium carbonate, average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, average price of imported lithium concentrate, monthly factory inventory, production of power and other batteries, production of lithium iron phosphate, average production cost of lithium carbonate, production of ternary materials, average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate, import volume of lithium spodumene, market price of ternary materials, and import volume of lithium carbonate [8][9][11][12][16][18][20][27][29][30][33][34]. - In 2026 January, the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials accounted for 18.06% from salt lakes, 24.55% from lithium mica, and 45.37% from lithium spodumene [21][22].