碳酸锂期货早报 2025年9月30日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为20516吨，环比增长0.75%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为98286吨，环比增加2.15%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为 17896吨，环比增加2.00%。 供给端，2025年8月碳酸锂产量为85240实物吨，预测下月产量为86730实物吨，环比增加1.75%,2025 年8月碳酸锂进口量为21847实物吨，预测下月进口量为19500实物吨，环比减少10.74%。需求端，预 计下月需求有所强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度环比有所增长，低于历史同 期平均水平，供需格局转向 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - On September 29, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures opened low and moved high. The spot market trading was weak, and the basis changed from premium to discount. Currently, both supply and demand are strong, with little inventory pressure upstream. The expectation of lithium ore supply contraction has weakened, downstream inventory has peaked, and the demand peak may be approaching. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate at a low level. The report suggests a wait - and - see approach [1]. Summary by Relevant Information Futures Market - **Prices**: On September 29, the closing prices of the near - month contract, consecutive first - month contract, consecutive second - month contract, and consecutive third - month contract of lithium carbonate futures were 73,760 yuan/ton, 73,920 yuan/ton, 73,900 yuan/ton, and 73,900 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 1,080 yuan/ton, 1,040 yuan/ton, 1,080 yuan/ton, and 1,080 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [1]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume was 465,591 lots (-15,429), and the open interest was 251,749 lots (+3,109) [1]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse inventory was 41,119 tons (+790) [1]. - **Spreads**: The spread between the near - month and consecutive first - month contracts was - 160 yuan/ton (+40), the spread between the consecutive first - and second - month contracts was 20 yuan/ton (-40), and the spread between the consecutive second - and third - month contracts was 0 yuan/ton (0). The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) was - 370 yuan/ton (-1,090) [1]. Spot Market - **Lithium Ore**: The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 858 US dollars/ton (+1), the average prices of different grades of lithium mica remained unchanged, and the average prices of different grades of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone remained unchanged [1]. - **Lithium Compounds**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 73,550 yuan/ton (-50), the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) was 71,300 yuan/ton (-50), and the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% domestic, different types) decreased by 150 yuan/ton. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate (99.95% domestic) increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 60,250 yuan/ton [1]. - **Battery Materials**: The average prices of various ternary precursors and materials increased, the average prices of different types of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 10 yuan/ton, the average price of cobalt acid lithium (60%, 4.35V/ domestic) increased by 16,000 yuan/ton to 276,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of electrolytic cobalt (≥99.8%/metal, ingot) increased by 13,500 yuan/ton to 323,500 yuan/ton [1]. Supply and Demand - **Supply**: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased, and Core Lithium terminated its off - take agreement with Ganfeng Lithium, which will release the full production capacity of its Finniss lithium project [1]. - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In September, the production schedules of cobalt acid lithium and lithium manganate increased. The production of power batteries was basically flat last week. In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, the 3C shipments were average, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in September [1]. Inventory - The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory was 136,825 tons, with smelters and other sectors reducing inventory and downstream sectors accumulating inventory [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report Core View - On September 26, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated within a range. With both supply and demand strong, upstream inventory pressure is not significant, the expectation of supply contraction in lithium mines is weakening, downstream inventories have reached their peaks, and the peak demand may be approaching. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will oscillate at a low level. A wait - and - see approach is recommended [1] Summary by Relevant Content Futures Market - On September 26, the closing prices of the near - month, consecutive - two, consecutive - three, and consecutive - one contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 72,680 yuan/ton, 72,820 yuan/ton, 72,820 yuan/ton, and 72,880 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a downward trend compared to the previous day. The trading volume of the active contract was 481,020 hands (+138,301), and the open interest was 248,460 hands (-12,501) [1] Spot Market - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,400 yuan/ton, with a basis of 720 yuan/ton, rising from a discount. The prices of some lithium - related products such as lithium spodumene concentrate increased, while the prices of mica remained stable [1] Supply and Demand - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production increased. Demand side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased; in September, the production schedules of lithium cobaltate and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries was basically flat last week. Terminal demand: In August, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down; 3C shipments were average; in September, the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased [1] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 40,329 tons (+20), and social inventory decreased. Inventories of smelters and other sectors decreased, while downstream inventory tightened [1] Company News - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. announced that its 40,000 - ton/year basic lithium salt integration project has entered the commissioning stage and produced qualified battery - grade lithium carbonate products. Anson Resources signed a battery - grade lithium carbonate purchase agreement with LG Energy Solution, and its stock price rose nearly 25%. Longpan Times, a joint - venture company of CATL and Longpan Technology, stopped production on September 25 due to the suspension of raw material supply from CATL's Yichun mine [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures contracts showed a range-bound trend. The 2511 contract closed at 72,880 yuan/ton, down 1,080 yuan/ton week-on-week, and the 2601 contract closed at 72,820 yuan/ton, down 1,220 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spot price increased by 100 yuan/ton to 73,600 yuan/ton [1]. - The supply of lithium ore increased, with the weekly output reaching a new high of 20,516 tons. The demand from the domestic energy storage market exceeded expectations, but the cathode materials maintained inventory accumulation. The weekly lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 136,800 tons, and the de-stocking speed slowed down for three consecutive weeks [2]. - In the future, it is expected that the price will maintain a range-bound trend. The de-stocking speed of lithium carbonate has slowed down, and the downstream inventory preparation for the National Day is almost over. However, the demand on the consumer electronics and energy storage sides is expected to remain strong [3]. - For single - sided trading, the price of the futures main contract is expected to run in the range of 70,000 - 76,000 yuan/ton. For cross - period trading, due to strong demand but increasing warehouse receipts, arbitrage is not recommended. For hedging, considering the significant price fluctuations caused by the change of lithium ore mining rights, it is recommended to increase the hedging ratio and use options for hedging [4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - The report presents various price data of lithium - related products, including the prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, electrolytes, positive electrode materials, and lithium batteries, as well as their week - on - week changes [9]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Upstream Supply - Side (Lithium Ore) - The shipment volume of Australian lithium ore increased significantly, with 230,000/441,000 tons shipped in the first four weeks of August and September respectively. The price of lithium ore was firm but not significantly stronger [2]. - The weekly production of lithium carbonate reached a new high of 20,516 tons. The disk profit and spot profit weakened, but the spot price remained strong. The shipment volume of lithium salts from Chile was 25,600/27,400 tons in August and September [2]. 3.3 Lithium Salt Mid - stream Consumption - Side (Lithium Salt Products) - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, production, inventory, and import - export volume of lithium carbonate, including battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, as well as the price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate [10][11][12]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Downstream Consumption - Side (Lithium Batteries and Materials) - The report shows the apparent consumption, inventory available days, monthly production, and monthly operating rates of lithium - battery - related products such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and various types of lithium batteries through multiple charts [15][16][17].

Group 1 - Tianqi Lithium's 30,000-ton battery-grade lithium hydroxide project has been completed, with a ceremony held on September 25 [1] - The project is located in the Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone, specifically in the Jiangsu Yangtze River International Chemical Industrial Park [1] - This facility is Tianqi Lithium's second fully automated battery-grade lithium hydroxide (lithium carbonate) plant in Zhangjiagang [1]

Group 1: Report's Core View - The short - term lithium carbonate market is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with strong price resilience in the context of increasing supply and demand, but lacking a breakthrough driver [3] - The lithium carbonate market in September shows a situation where supply and demand increase simultaneously, but the demand growth rate is faster, and it is expected to experience a period of tight supply [6] Group 2: Daily Market Summary Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Changes - **Main Contract and Basis**: On September 25, the lithium carbonate main contract closed at 74,040 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan from the previous day's 72,880 yuan/ton, and the basis weakened significantly from 620 yuan/ton on September 24 to - 540 yuan/ton [1] - **Position and Trading Volume**: On September 25, the position of the main contract slightly expanded to 261,141 lots, an increase of 487 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume slightly shrank to 342,719 lots, a decrease of 2,502 lots from the previous day [1] Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes in the Industrial Chain - **Supply Side**: On September 19, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate rose to 71.31%, a 4.9 - percentage - point increase from 66.41% on September 12. The price of spodumene concentrate was stable at 6,390 yuan/ton, and that of lepidolite concentrate remained at 3,400 yuan/ton. However, lithium ore imports decreased by 17.5% month - on - month in August, and future supply increments may be restricted by tight raw materials [2] - **Demand Side**: From September 1 to 21, new - energy vehicle retail sales reached 697,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10%. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate rose to 58,000 yuan/ton, and the price of power ternary materials increased to 120,750 yuan/ton. But pre - holiday stockpiling is nearing the end, and demand may decline after October [2] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: On September 19, lithium carbonate inventory decreased to 137,531 physical tons, a reduction of 981 tons from 138,512 physical tons on September 12, indicating a tight balance between supply and demand [2] Group 3: Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On September 25, the lithium carbonate main contract was 74,040 yuan/ton, up 1,160 yuan from the previous day; the basis was - 540 yuan/ton, down 1,160 yuan from the previous day; the main contract position was 261,141 lots, an increase of 487 lots from the previous day; the main contract trading volume was 342,719 lots, a decrease of 2,502 lots from the previous day [5] - From September 19 to September 12, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate increased from 66.41% to 71.31%, and the inventory decreased from 138,512 physical tons to 137,531 physical tons [5] Group 4: Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Spot Market Quotes - On September 25, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,678 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The market is in the peak demand season, pre - holiday stockpiling by downstream material factories is nearing the end, and market sentiment is turning cautious. In September, the market shows a situation where supply and demand increase simultaneously, but the demand growth rate is faster, and there may be a period of tight supply [6] Downstream Consumption - From September 1 to 21, the retail sales of new - energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 697,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10%, and the penetration rate was 58.5%. The wholesale volume was 724,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 10%, and the penetration rate was 55.4% [7] Industry News - On September 11, a "Lithium Belt in Asia" was discovered in China, spanning four provinces and regions [9] - On September 10, news of the potential restart of Ningde Times' Jianxiawo lithium mine spread, and the company planned to restart production in November, but the outcome is uncertain [9]

Core Viewpoint - Donghua Technology announced the signing of an EPC contract and an operation contract for a lithium carbonate project in Tibet, marking a significant step in enhancing its performance in the lithium market [1] Group 1: Project Details - The company signed an EPC contract with Tibet Shigatse Zabuye Lithium Industry Co., Ltd. for the comprehensive development and utilization of a 10,000-ton battery-grade lithium carbonate project [1] - The EPC contract stipulates that the company is responsible for the design, procurement, and construction until the completion of the factory's mechanical commissioning and readiness for production [1] - The operation contract outlines the company's responsibility for daily production operations and safety management during the three-year operational period following the project's readiness for production [1] Group 2: Project Timeline and Milestones - The project is set to complete a 120-hour functional assessment from September 20 to 24, 2025, which will signify the official commencement of production [1] - Successful completion of the functional assessment will further enhance the company's engineering construction achievements in the lithium market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Donghua Technology has signed contracts for a lithium carbonate project in Tibet, marking a significant step in its engineering and operational capabilities in the lithium market [1] Group 1: Project Overview - In September 2021, Donghua Engineering Technology Co., Ltd. signed an EPC contract and an operation contract with Tibet Shigatse Zabuye Lithium Industry High-Tech Co., Ltd. for a lithium carbonate project [1] - The EPC contract stipulates that the company is responsible for the design, procurement, and construction until the factory is ready for production [1] - The operation contract outlines the company's responsibilities for daily production operations and safety management for three years after the project is ready for production [1] Group 2: Project Progress - The project has successfully completed a 120-hour functional assessment from September 20 to 24, 2025, indicating that it is ready for official production [1] - This project is notable for being the world's first large-scale industrial facility to use membrane separation and MVR technology for lithium extraction from salt lakes [1] - The project involves complex technical adjustments, environmental adaptations, and product validations, particularly challenging due to its location in a high-altitude region [1] Group 3: Market Implications - The successful completion of the functional assessment enhances the company's engineering performance in the lithium market [1]

Group 1 - The company has successfully completed the industrialization preparation for lithium sulfide, a core material for the next generation solid-state batteries [1] - The company has developed a new battery-grade lithium sulfide micro-powder, which shows significant improvements in uniformity and activity compared to existing high-purity lithium sulfide products [1] - The development of a recycling purification technology has significantly reduced the production costs of lithium sulfide [1] Group 2 - A pilot project for an annual production of 50 tons of lithium sulfide has been initiated in Meishan, Sichuan, utilizing the company's proprietary high-purity lithium sulfide preparation technology [1] - The new "slurry reduction method" technology allows for the feasibility of lithium sulfide synthesis reactions under medium and low-temperature conditions, offering advantages such as low risk and rapid scalability [1] - The company has provided samples to over ten downstream customers, receiving positive feedback [1]

Group 1 - The company reported total operating revenue of 4.833 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 24.71% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 84 million yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 101.62% [1] - The company achieved a net profit of 132 thousand yuan after deducting non-recurring gains and losses, a year-on-year increase of 100.03% [1] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, the company recorded operating revenue of 2.248 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12.99% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q2 2025 was -20 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 119.05% [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses in Q2 2025 was -43 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 197% [1] Group 3 - Lithium prices have been declining rapidly, increasing the company's profit pressure, with the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate at 65,300 yuan per ton in Q2 2025, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 14% [1] - Greenbush achieved a net profit of 1.742 billion yuan in H1 2025, with Tianqi's attributable net profit of 584 million yuan [1] - In Q2 2025, Greenbush's lithium concentrate production was 340,000 tons, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter, while sales increased by 12% to 412,000 tons [1] Group 4 - SQM reported a net profit of 1.621 billion yuan in H1 2025, with lithium salt sales of 108,100 tons [2] - In Q2 2025, SQM's lithium salt sales were 53,100 tons, with an average selling price of 8,384 USD per ton [2] - SQM's net profit in Q2 2025 was 88.4 million USD, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 36% [2] Group 5 - The lithium salt smelting segment reported a loss of 530 million yuan in H1 2025, with Q2 2025 losses improving to approximately 244 million yuan [2] - The company has established lithium chemical product capacity of approximately 91,600 tons per year, with plans for a total capacity of 122,600 tons per year [2] - Non-recurring gains and losses included a provision for inventory impairment of 185 million yuan in H1 2025, with additional impairment of 164 million yuan in Q2 2025 due to falling lithium salt prices [3]