长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 需求端：8月整体排产环比增加，大型电芯厂排产环比增加7%。7月，我国动力和其他电池合计产量为133.8GWh，环比增长3.6%， 同比增长44.3%。动力和其他电池合计出口23.2GWh，环比下降4.7%，同比增长35.4%。动力和其他电池销量为127.2GWh，环比下 降3.2%，同比增长47.8%。以旧换新政策和政策端新能源车购置税的延期也有望持续支撑中国新能源车市场销量的较快增长。 库存：本周碳酸锂库存呈现去库状态，碳酸锂工厂库存减少1590吨，市场库存减少591吨，期货库存增加1505吨。 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 碳酸锂周报 2025/8/25 l 策略建议： 01 周度观点 l 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，上周碳酸锂产量环比增加345吨至20438吨，7月产量环比增加5.8%至85690吨。宁德枧下窝矿山确认停 产3个月，宜春和青海地区生产企业均收到矿权转让重审的通知，供应受到影响。一季度澳矿实现对成本的管控， ...

2025 年 8 月 25 日 碳酸锂：宽幅震荡 | 邵婉嫕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015722 | shaowanyi@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 刘鸿儒（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03124172 | liuhongru@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 碳酸锂基本面数据 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2509合约（收盘价） | 79,180 | -3,820 | -7,740 | 2,540 | 9,800 | 16,820 | | | | 2509合约（成交量） | 23,175 | -7,397 | -16,759 | -121,959 | -1,310,984 | -13,537 | | | | 2509合约（持仓量） | 51,084 | -5,986 | -38,565 | -98,405 | -310,970 | -40,194 | | | 盘面 | 2511合约（收盘价） | ...

| [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 碳酸锂：看涨 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 月 | 年 | 8 | 24 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★多头减仓触发深度回调，下游采购创年内高点 上周（08/18-08/22）锂盐价格冲高回落。LC2509 收盘价环比-8.9% 至 7.92 万元/吨，LC2511 收盘价环比-9.1%至 7.90 万元/吨；SMM 电池级及工业级碳酸锂现货均价环比+1.5%至 8.39、8.16 万元/ 吨。周内氢氧化锂价格延续上行，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电池级 氢氧化锂均价环比+4.7%、4.4%至 7.75、8.25 万元/吨。电工价差 环比持平于 0.23 万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格 贴水环比收窄 0.23 万元至 0.64 万元/吨。 有 色 金 属 据海关总署，7 月中国进口锂辉石总量约合 6.41 万吨 LCE，环比 +32%，同比+10%，其中，自澳洲进口量环比+67%至 4.27 万吨 LCE，或由价格反弹及企业财年节点共同所致；1-7 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Supply and Demand Improve, but the Actual Magnitude is Limited. Lithium Carbonate is Difficult to Maintain Long - Term and Significant Increases - Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain Weekly Data Report [1] - Report Date: August 20, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine has brought lithium carbonate prices to a new level, and the marginal change from passive inventory accumulation to passive inventory depletion in lithium carbonate supply and demand has significantly improved the market expectations in the first half of the year, with the price center expected to rise. However, the expected annual inventory depletion of 1 - 2 million tons after the shutdown is limited compared to the current market inventory of 14 million tons. If the market continues to rise significantly, it may open the profit window for imported lithium mines such as those from Australia and Africa, quickly making up for the supply reduction caused by the shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine and attracting hedging funds, so it may experience short - term significant increases but is difficult to maintain in the long term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Report Summary 3.1.1 Fundamental Overview - Lithium Ore: The price of spodumene has risen rapidly, leading the increase in ore prices. Affected by administrative orders in Jiangxi and Qinghai, the operating rates of lithium mica and salt lake sectors have significantly declined in July. After the confirmation of the shutdown of Jianxiawo, the market demand for lithium mica has significantly decreased, and the price of spodumene, as an alternative, has led the increase in the lithium ore market. Attention should be paid to the quantity of imported spodumene supplemented due to high prices [3]. - Lithium Salt: It has continued to take advantage of the situation, and the upper integer price levels may be the targets of long - positions. The news of the shutdown of Jianxiawo last week pushed the lithium carbonate LC futures contract to the price range of 80,000 yuan. The marginal reduction may change the domestic lithium carbonate supply - demand from passive inventory accumulation to passive inventory depletion. The market long - positions continue to take advantage of the market rumors of the shutdown of the salt lake sector to drive up prices, with the upper levels of 90,000 and 100,000 yuan being the next targets of long - positions. However, with a high inventory of 14 million tons, it is difficult for lithium carbonate to maintain high prices in the long term [3]. - Cathode Materials and Lithium Batteries: The impact of anti - involution is gradually fading. The impact of anti - involution focused on the new energy vehicle market is gradually fading. Recently, lithium carbonate has been indirectly affected by the sentiment of industries such as photovoltaics, with limited substantial impact [3]. 3.1.2 Market Summary - The shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine has brought lithium carbonate prices to a new level. The marginal change in supply and demand has improved market expectations, but the expected inventory depletion is limited compared to the current inventory. If the market rises significantly, it may attract imported lithium mines and hedging funds, making it difficult to maintain long - term high prices [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Lithium Carbonate Balance Sheet - Slowing Inventory Accumulation - From July 2024 to July 2025, the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, and cumulative balance of lithium carbonate showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the supply was 81,530 tons, demand was 96,275 tons, import was 18,000 tons, export was 573 tons, inventory change was 2,682 tons, and the cumulative balance was 164,565 tons [8]. 3.2.2 Lithium Hydroxide Balance Sheet - From August 2024 to July 2025, the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, and cumulative balance of lithium hydroxide also showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the supply was 25,170 tons, demand was 22,969 tons, import was 750 tons, export was 6,100 tons, inventory change was - 3,149 tons, and the cumulative balance was 25,163 tons [12]. 3.3 Upstream Ore Supply, Demand, and Price 3.3.1 Spodumene Import - From December 2023 to June 2025, the import volume and average import price of lithium concentrate from different countries (Australia, Brazil, etc.) showed different trends. For example, in June 2025, the total import volume was 427,626 tons, with 255,506 tons from Australia and 39,811 tons from Brazil, and the average import price was 639 US dollars per ton [19]. 3.3.2 Chinese Lithium Ore - Spodumene Quotation Leading the Increase - From December 2023 to July 2025, the production of sample lithium mica mines and spodumene mines showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production of lithium mica was 16,100 tons with a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%, and the production of spodumene was 6,500 tons with a month - on - month increase of 0.78% [24]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Supply, Demand, and Price 3.4.1 Lithium Salt Spot and Futures Prices - Obvious Impact of Lithium Ore Shutdown - From July 1, 2025, to August 15, 2025, the prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the price differences between them showed different trends. For example, on August 15, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 84,000 yuan, industrial - grade was 83,000 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide was 77,875 yuan, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 1,000 yuan, and the difference between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 6,125 yuan [27]. 3.4.2 Production Cost and Profit - Spodumene Expected to Supplement Market Gap - From July 9, 2025, to August 15, 2025, the production costs and profits of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene, low - grade mica, and high - grade mica showed different trends. For example, on August 15, 2025, the production cost of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 73,053 yuan per ton, with a profit of 10,947 yuan; the production cost from low - grade mica was 91,674 yuan per ton, with a loss of 7,674 yuan; and the production cost from high - grade mica was 53,983 yuan per ton, with a profit of 30,017 yuan [41]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate Production - From July 2023 to July 2025, the weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the total monthly production was 81,530 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month increase of 4% [50]. 3.4.4 Operating Rate - Obvious Decline in Operating Rates of Mica and Salt Lake Sectors in July - From July 2022 to July 2025, the operating rates of lithium salt, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide showed different trends. The operating rates of lithium carbonate production from different raw materials (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake) also showed different trends [52][55]. 3.4.5 Lithium Carbonate Monthly Import Volume - From December 2021 to June 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate and the import volumes from Argentina and Chile showed different trends. For example, in June 2025, the total import volume was 17,698 tons, with 5,094 tons from Argentina and 11,853 tons from Chile [60]. 3.4.6 Lithium Carbonate Inventory - Attention Needed on the Sustainability of Inventory Depletion - From December 2022 to July 2025, the inventory of lithium carbonate in downstream and smelting plants, weekly inventory, and the number of registered futures warehouse receipts showed different trends [62][63][65]. 3.5 Lithium Salt Downstream Production and Demand 3.5.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Slowing Production Growth - From November 2019 to July 2025, the production and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production was 290,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.00% and a month - on - month increase of 1.86%, and the operating rate was 57.00% [70]. 3.5.2 Ternary Materials Production and Operating Rate - From December 2023 to July 2025, the production and operating rate of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production was 68,640 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.70% and a month - on - month increase of 5.80% [75]. 3.5.3 Ternary Materials Import and Export Volume - From December 2021 to June 2025, the import, export, and net import volumes of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, in June 2025, the import volume was 5,349 tons, the export volume was 10,636 tons, and the net import volume was - 5,287 tons [80]. 3.5.4 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - From November 2021 to July 2025, the production of pure - electric vehicles, plug - in hybrid vehicles, and the inventory warning index of automobile dealers showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production of pure - electric vehicles was 807,000, the production of plug - in hybrid vehicles was 436,000, and the inventory warning index was 57.2 [81].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On August 8th, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated upwards. The profit has been restored, and the production of lithium carbonate has rebounded. However, disturbances at the mining end in Jiangxi have intensified. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to focus on the progress at the Jiangxi mining end and adopt short - term operations. (View score: +1) [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Futures and Spot Price Information - On August 8th, the closing prices of the near - month contract, consecutive - one contract, consecutive - two contract, and consecutive - three contract of lithium carbonate futures were 75,300 yuan/ton, 76,640 yuan/ton, 76,960 yuan/ton, and 76,960 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 5,300 yuan/ton, 4,720 yuan/ton, 4,660 yuan/ton, and 4,660 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. - The trading volume of the active contract of lithium carbonate futures was 895,609 hands (+128,940), and the open interest was 320,706 hands (+30,874) [3]. - The registered warehouse receipts were 18,829 tons (+2,386), and the social inventory decreased. The smelters and others reduced inventory, while the downstream increased inventory [3]. - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,900 yuan/ton (+800), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,800 yuan/ton (+800) [3]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 8.05 US dollars/kg (unchanged), and the average prices of domestic battery - grade coarse - particle and micro - powder lithium hydroxide increased by 500 yuan/ton [3]. - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 777 US dollars/ton (+20), and the prices of various types of lithium mica and phosphate - lithium - aluminum stone also increased [3]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Information - On the supply side, the production of lithium carbonate increased last week. On the demand side, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. In August, the production plan of lithium cobalt oxide decreased, and the production plan of lithium manganate increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, but the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. The production of energy - storage batteries increased in August [3]. 3.3 Market News - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman supports starting interest rate cuts in September and cutting interest rates three times this year. JPMorgan Chase has changed its expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts this year from once to three times [3]. - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that in July 2025, the national consumer price was flat year - on - year and increased by 0.4% month - on - month; the month - on - month decline of PPI narrowed for the first time since March [3]. - According to the Futures Daily, the mining end under CATL has determined to stop production, and relevant personnel said there is no short - term plan for resumption [3].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that CATL's Jiangxiawo mining area has confirmed a production halt since August 10, with no short-term plans for resumption, impacting lithium carbonate supply significantly [1][3] - The lithium carbonate supply from the Jiangxiawo mining area is approximately 10,000 tons per month, accounting for about 12.5% of the domestic total production [1] - As of the week ending August 7, the social inventory of lithium carbonate was 142,400 tons, an increase of 692 tons week-on-week, indicating a current market condition of inventory accumulation [1] Group 2 - Following the news of the production halt, lithium carbonate futures contracts opened with a limit increase, with the main contract reported at 81,000 yuan per ton, reflecting an 8% increase [1] - Market sentiment and speculative trading are influencing the futures market, with expectations that lithium carbonate prices may challenge the 80,000 yuan per ton mark, although the fundamental market conditions have not changed significantly [3] - Investors are advised to approach the situation with caution, as the actual impact of the production halt remains to be observed, and there may be a risk of overheated market sentiment [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of lithium carbonate futures contracts increased significantly, with the long - term contract basis changing from positive to negative. Due to the suspension of production at Ningde Times' Shixiawo mining area and no short - term resumption plan, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will rise significantly. Before overseas mines, lithium carbonate, and lithium sulfate significantly increase to make up for the gap, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to maintain an upward trend. Conversely, the resumption of the project needs to be closely monitored, and after resumption, the price will quickly fall to the price center with increased costs [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Price Trends - The price of lithium carbonate futures contracts increased significantly. The 2509 contract closed at 76,640 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 7,720 yuan/ton; the 2511 contract closed at 76,960 yuan/ton, also a weekly increase of 7,720 yuan/ton. The spot price increased by 550 yuan/ton to 71,900 yuan/ton. The SMM spot - futures basis (2509 contract) decreased by 7,170 yuan/ton to - 4,740 yuan/ton, and the Fubao trader's premium/discount quote was - 170 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The spread between the 2509 - 2511 contracts was - 320 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month [1] 3.2 Supply and Demand Fundamentals 3.2.1 Macro - On August 9, it was learned from multiple market sources that the mining end of Ningde Times' Shixiawo mining area will stop production at 12 o'clock tonight. Starting from August 10, the mining end of this mine will stop working, and there is no short - term resumption plan [2] 3.2.2 Supply - From July 28 to August 3, 2025, the total shipment of Australian lithium concentrate to China was 129,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 tons. In July, the export volume of lithium carbonate from Chile was 20,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43%, of which 13,600 tons were exported to China, a month - on - month increase of 33% [2] 3.2.3 Demand - This week, the new energy passenger vehicle market continued to recover, with sales of 245,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 3.81% and a year - on - year increase of 9.38%. The new energy penetration rate slightly declined to 53% but still remained at a high level. The winning bid scale of energy storage continued to increase month - on - month. In July, the domestic energy storage market completed a total of 9.0GW/25.8GWh of tendering work, a month - on - month increase of 10% and a year - on - year increase of 34.24% [2] 3.2.4 Inventory - The total social inventory of lithium carbonate increased, with upstream destocking and downstream inventory accumulation. The lithium carbonate inventory was 142,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 692 tons, and the number of futures warehouse receipts increased to 18,800 tons [2] 3.3 Future Market Views - Due to the suspension of production at Ningde Times' Shixiawo mining area and no short - term resumption plan, it is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will rise significantly. Before overseas mines, lithium carbonate, and lithium sulfate significantly increase to make up for the gap, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to maintain an upward trend. Conversely, the resumption of the project needs to be closely monitored, and after resumption, the price will quickly fall to the price center with increased costs [3] 3.4 Trading Strategies 3.4.1 Single - sided - The price of the futures main contract is expected to range from 75,000 to 100,000 yuan/ton [4] 3.4.2 Inter - period - It is recommended to wait for the structure to strengthen, then consider the upward movement of the single - sided price. With a negative long - term contract basis, the number of warehouse receipts will increase significantly, which is suitable for reverse arbitrage [4] 3.4.3 Hedging - It is recommended to conduct sell - hedging after the price rebounds to a high level, and the hedging ratio should consider the annual output in the second half of the year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in lithium carbonate prices is primarily driven by expectations of production cuts at a major mine in Jiangxi, which has led to market speculation about supply stability [1][2][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate is currently relatively stable, but concerns about supply disruptions from the Jiangxi mine are pushing prices higher [2][3]. - As of August 7, weekly lithium carbonate production increased by over 13% to 19,600 tons, while weekly inventory only rose by 692 tons, indicating a slight improvement in downstream demand [2]. - Despite the price increase, some downstream companies are adopting a cautious approach to inventory replenishment due to the rising costs [2][4]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - Historical data suggests that even if the Jiangxi mine were to stop production, prices might stabilize in the range of 75,000 to 80,000 yuan per ton, supported by strong demand expectations [3]. - The market is currently experiencing upward price pressure due to fears of prolonged production halts and potential regulatory issues at the Jiangxi mine [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the market's reaction to supply fluctuations may be overblown, and the potential for further price increases could be limited [4]. Future Outlook - The focus will be on the production changes from mica-derived lithium, with concerns about supply shortages potentially leading to increased raw material replenishment by downstream companies [4]. - If lithium carbonate prices remain high, there may be a resurgence in non-mainstream production capabilities, particularly from overseas sources [4]. - Investors are advised to approach market news with caution, as the potential for price increases may be constrained, and excessive speculation could pose risks [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that lithium carbonate futures prices have fallen below 70,000 yuan/ton, with a closing price of 68,900 yuan/ton on August 1, reflecting a weekly decline of 5.85% [1] - The domestic lithium carbonate production in July exceeded 80,000 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 4%, primarily due to significant recovery in spodumene production and the release of recycling capacity [3] - Demand for lithium carbonate is under pressure, with retail sales of new energy vehicles in July declining by 17% month-on-month, and the prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials showing slight decreases [3] Group 2 - The market outlook suggests that lithium carbonate prices are likely to remain weak in the short term, with a focus on the production changes of mica and salt lake resources, which could influence price movements [3] - Current market conditions indicate high supply and inventory levels for lithium carbonate, with limited support for prices due to declining demand growth [4] - The potential for price increases in the future may depend on the implementation of anti-involution policies, resource clearing in the upstream sector, and the resolution of price wars within the industry [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be stable, with South American imports likely to supplement supply, and the demand from the energy storage terminal is good, with the production schedule of large battery cell manufacturers increasing in July. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be supported in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the short - term and continue to monitor the production cuts of upstream enterprises and the production schedule of cathode material manufacturers [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Weekly View Supply - side - Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased by 235 tons to 18,548 tons, and the output in June increased by 10.9% to 80,962 tons. Recently, many lithium mine projects have restarted production, but the production enterprises in Yichun and Qinghai have received notices of re - review of mining rights transfer, affecting supply. In the first quarter, Australian mines achieved cost control, and the room for further cost reduction is extremely limited. In June 2025, the import volume of lithium ore in China was 576,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.8%. The import volume of lithium carbonate was 18,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16% [4] Cost - The CIF price of imported lithium spodumene concentrate increased week - on - week, causing cost inversion for some manufacturers using purchased lithium ore. Enterprises with their own ore and salt lakes have certain profit support, while lithium hydroxide manufacturers face greater cost pressure [4] Demand - side - The overall production schedule in July increased month - on - month, with large battery cell manufacturers' production schedule increasing by 10%. In June, the total production of power and other batteries in China was 129.2 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 4.6% and a year - on - year increase of 51.4%. The total export was 24.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 27.9% and a year - on - year increase of 22.5%. The sales volume was 131.4 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 6.3% and a year - on - year increase of 41.7%. The new car replacement policy and the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax are expected to support the sales growth of the new energy vehicle market [5] Inventory - This week, the inventory of lithium carbonate showed a cumulative state, with the factory inventory decreasing by 850 tons, the market inventory decreasing by 524 tons, and the futures inventory increasing by 1,757 tons [5] Strategy Suggestion - It is expected that the import volume of South American lithium salts will supplement the supply. The overall supply is stable, and the price of lithium carbonate is expected to be supported in the short - term. It is recommended to hold long positions in the short - term and continue to monitor the production cuts of upstream enterprises and the production schedule of cathode material manufacturers [5] 2. Key Data Tracking - The report presents multiple data charts, including the spot price of lithium carbonate, weekly and monthly production, weekly and monthly inventory, average production cost, production and import volume of related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and battery materials, and the price of battery materials. However, specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text, only the data trends over different time periods are shown [8][10][13][15][17][23][25][27][31][33][35][37]