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云天化(600096):2024年业绩稳中有增,磷矿资源优势领先
Guohai Securities· 2025-03-25 14:01
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 61.54 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 10.89%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 17.93% to 5.33 billion yuan [7][9] - The company continues to leverage its phosphate resource advantages, with a focus on cost control and stable supply of raw materials [9][15] - The forecast for 2025-2027 indicates revenues of 64 billion, 65 billion, and 65.8 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 5.48 billion, 5.76 billion, and 6.05 billion yuan, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [18][64] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 14.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.00%, but a net profit of 909 million yuan, up 11.15% year-on-year [8][13] - The average sales price for phosphate fertilizer was 3,388 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.28% year-on-year, while urea prices fell by 12.02% to 2,043 yuan/ton [9][10] - The company’s return on equity (ROE) was 26.21%, a slight increase from the previous year [7][12] Segment Analysis - The phosphate fertilizer segment generated revenue of 15.73 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 37.93%, while urea revenue was 5.63 billion yuan with a gross margin of 23.01% [10][12] - The company’s operational efficiency is highlighted by a decrease in financial expenses due to reduced interest-bearing debt, leading to a net cash flow from operating activities of 10.75 billion yuan, up 13.93% year-on-year [12][18] Resource and Development - The company holds phosphate reserves of nearly 800 million tons, with an annual mining capacity of 14.5 million tons, ensuring self-sufficiency [15][16] - The company has successfully obtained exploration rights for the Zhenxiong phosphate mine, enhancing its resource security [15][16] Shareholder Returns - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 14 yuan per 10 shares, amounting to approximately 2.55 billion yuan, which is 47.86% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [17]