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农林牧渔行业点评报告:需求渐入旺季肉鸡价格有支撑,蛋价下行蛋鸡淘汰或加速
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-11-17 03:42
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for meat chickens is entering a peak season, providing price support, while egg prices are declining, leading to accelerated culling of laying hens [8] - The report highlights the performance of various poultry segments, including white feathered chickens, yellow feathered chickens, and laying hens, with specific price trends and inventory changes [13][23][31] Summary by Sections 1. White Feathered Chickens - The average sales price for white feathered meat chickens in October 2025 was 6.93 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.06 yuan/kg month-on-month. The breeding loss was 1.78 yuan per bird, continuing a trend of losses [13] - The price of white feathered chicken seedlings rose to 3.39 yuan each, an increase of 0.58 yuan month-on-month, indicating positive stocking activity ahead of the peak demand season [14] - The total inventory of white feathered grandparent stock was 2.0209 million sets, down 1.30% month-on-month, with a decrease in both breeding and backup stock [14] 2. Yellow Feathered Chickens - The average sales price for medium-speed yellow feathered chickens in October was 12.86 yuan/kg, with a slight decrease of 0.03% month-on-month. The demand is supporting price stability [23] - The sales volume of parent yellow feathered chicken seedlings increased by 8.87% month-on-month, while the total inventory of yellow feathered grandparent stock decreased by 2.65% [23] 3. Laying Hens - The average price of laying hen seedlings was 2.80 yuan each, up 7.69% month-on-month, while the wholesale price of eggs dropped to 5.72 yuan/kg, down 20.11% month-on-month [31] - The profit from laying hen farming was -24.44 yuan per bird, a decrease of 26.56 yuan month-on-month, indicating pressure on profitability due to high inventory levels and low egg prices [31] 4. Sales and Revenue Trends - In October, the sales volume of chicken products showed mixed results, with some companies experiencing declines in sales volume but increases in revenue due to higher average prices [43][49] - For example, Xiantan Co. reported a chicken sales volume of 52,900 tons, down 1.37% month-on-month, but an increase in sales revenue to 456 million yuan, up 4.05% month-on-month [43]