全球流动性紧张格局待解！ 美联储议息透露，明确要QE。但近期的流动性紧张格局并未结束，反而有强化的迹象。据FT最新报道，摩根 大通正将3500亿美元（折合人民币超2.4万亿元）储备从美联储账户转投美债，旨在降息前锁定收益。 值得注意的是，根据《Discovery Alert》网站发布的研报，63万亿美元影子银行体系，正逐渐成为全球金融市 场潜在的不稳定来源。私人信贷市场则被视为另一个潜在风险来源，该市场目前规模约1.8万亿美元。 摩根大通冲击流动性 自2023年以来，摩根大通已从其在美联储的账户中提取了近3500亿美元的现金，并将其中大部分投入美国政府 债券，因为该银行试图抵御可能侵蚀其利润的降息。 根据行业数据追踪机构BankRegData汇编的数据，资产超过4万亿美元的摩根大通已将其在美联储的存款余额 从2023年底的4090亿美元大幅削减至今年第三季度的630亿美元。同期，该银行将其持有的美国国债从2310亿 美元增加到4500亿美元，此举使其能够锁定更高的收益率，来应对美联储降息。 危机隐现 另据《Discovery Alert》网站发布的研报指出，规模高达63万亿美元的影子银行体系，正逐渐成为全球金 ...

来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇11月21日｜美联储理事丽莎·库克(Lisa Cook)周四表示，多个市场资产估值相较历史基准已处于 高位，包括股市、公司债券、杠杆贷款市场及房地产市场。她认为资产价格大跌可能性已经上升，但金 融体系整体韧性较强，并未发现类似大萧条期间的脆弱性，潜在的资产价格下跌并不会对金融体系构成 风险。她还称，对冲基金持有美债比例已从2021年第一季约4.6%，升至今年第一季10.3%，高于新冠疫 情前高位的9.4%。意味着若对冲基金因市场环境变化而大幅减持国债，可能引发的清算规模将显著扩 大。她还表示，私人信贷市场复杂性增加，以及与高杠杆金融机构相互连结加深，使私人信贷意外损失 可能传染至更广泛的金融体系。目前不认为私人信贷会像2008年资产担保商业票据市场般，引发意外的 信贷紧缩。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent bankruptcies of "First Brand" and "Three Colors" companies in the U.S. have raised alarms about high-risk lending behaviors in the private credit market, reminiscent of the pre-2008 financial crisis [1][3]. Group 1: Company Bankruptcies - "First Brand" is an American auto parts manufacturer, while "Three Colors" is a subprime auto loan company that declared bankruptcy in September [1]. - The bankruptcies have resulted in losses for credit investors and are under scrutiny by the U.S. Department of Justice [1]. Group 2: Lending Practices - "Three Colors" bundled loans issued to borrowers with little to no credit history and sold them to investors after structuring them into different tranches, some of which received AAA ratings shortly before the company's collapse [3]. - "First Brand" utilized specialized funds to secure credit against its invoices [3]. Group 3: Market Implications - Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, indicated that these bankruptcies might signal deeper issues within the private credit market, similar to the warning signs before the 2008 crisis [3][4]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that European and American banks have a risk exposure of up to $4.5 trillion to private credit groups, hedge funds, and other non-bank financial institutions, which could amplify the effects of any economic downturn [3]. Group 4: Regulatory Considerations - The Bank of England is considering conducting a "system-wide exploratory scenario test" next year to assess the resilience of the private credit market in crisis situations [4].