全球流动性紧张格局待解！ 美联储议息透露，明确要QE。但近期的流动性紧张格局并未结束，反而有强化的迹象。据FT最新报道，摩根 大通正将3500亿美元（折合人民币超2.4万亿元）储备从美联储账户转投美债，旨在降息前锁定收益。 值得注意的是，根据《Discovery Alert》网站发布的研报，63万亿美元影子银行体系，正逐渐成为全球金融市 场潜在的不稳定来源。私人信贷市场则被视为另一个潜在风险来源，该市场目前规模约1.8万亿美元。 摩根大通冲击流动性 自2023年以来，摩根大通已从其在美联储的账户中提取了近3500亿美元的现金，并将其中大部分投入美国政府 债券，因为该银行试图抵御可能侵蚀其利润的降息。 根据行业数据追踪机构BankRegData汇编的数据，资产超过4万亿美元的摩根大通已将其在美联储的存款余额 从2023年底的4090亿美元大幅削减至今年第三季度的630亿美元。同期，该银行将其持有的美国国债从2310亿 美元增加到4500亿美元，此举使其能够锁定更高的收益率，来应对美联储降息。 危机隐现 另据《Discovery Alert》网站发布的研报指出，规模高达63万亿美元的影子银行体系，正逐渐成为全球金 ...

FSB官员们表示，他们试图收集加拿大、德国、意大利、卢森堡、荷兰、日本、瑞士和中国香港这八个 主要司法管辖区的信息，但发现现有数据存在重大缺口。这些司法管辖区报告的私人信贷活动仅为0.5 万亿美元，FSB称这一数字"远低于其他使用商业数据计算出的估计值"。 报告指出，"并非所有参与的司法管辖区都能提供数据"。有些司法管辖区仅提供了部分行业的数据，例 如只收集私人信贷基金的信息，而不收集保险公司贷款的信息。 （原标题：FSB报告：全球影子银行资产首破250万亿美元，监管真空引发系统性风险担忧） FSB工作人员还指出，目前缺乏私人信贷和金融的全球标准定义，"导致难以在统计和监管报告中识别 私人信贷实体"。FSB的 2026 年工作计划包括解决私人信贷方面的数据缺口。 智通财经APP获悉，金融稳定委员会(FSB)最新数据显示，全球影子银行体系的资产首次突破 250 万亿 美元大关，加剧了人们对金融领域监管灰色地带可能带来的系统性风险日益加剧的担忧。FSB的年度全 球金融监测报告显示，截至2024年底，非银行金融机构(涵盖对冲基金、保险公司、投资基金等)的资产 总额达到创纪录的256.8万亿美元，同比增长9.4%。该 ...

金融稳定委员会（FSB）的最新数据显示，庞大的影子银行体系的全球资产规模已首次突破250万亿美 元大关，从而加剧了金融体系中监管较少的领域可能带来的系统性风险日益增大之忧。 FSB的年度全球金融监测报告显示，截至2024年底，非银行金融机构（涵盖对冲基金、保险公司、投资 基金等）资产总额达到创纪录的256.8万亿美元，同比增长9.4%。它们目前占到金融总资产的51%，与 疫情前的份额基本持平。 在非银行金融机构中，增长最快的是信托公司、对冲基金、货币市场基金和其他投资基金，增长率均达 到两位数。根据FSB，与此同时，银行业资产增长了4.7%。FSB由24个司法管辖区的财经官员组成。 FSB对于数以万亿美元计的私募信贷行业的增长数据缺乏表示遗憾。目前，监管机构正在密切关注这一 领域的危险迹象。包括摩根大通首席执行官Jamie Dimon和瑞银董事长Colm Kelleher在内，一些银行高 管已就该行业的潜在问题发出了警告。 FSB对于数以万亿美元计的私募信贷行业的增长数据缺乏表示遗憾。目前，监管机构正在密切关注这一 领域的危险迹象。包括摩根大通首席执行官Jamie Dimon和瑞银董事长Colm Kelleh ...

声明：本文内容均是根据权威材料，结合个人观点撰写的原创内容，辛苦各位看官支持，请 知悉。 文丨球球 编辑丨竹林阁楼 最近西方媒体都在吵一个事：特朗普搞的关税政策，到底是不是在"瞎折腾"？ 不光可能让美国自己的经济出问题，连全球都开始怀疑美元那套金融体系还靠不靠谱了。 《纽约时报》记者从伦敦发回的报道，看得我有点慌，现在美国的情况，跟2008年金融危机前那股 子"风险堆一堆"的劲儿，太像了。 微观风险扎堆：美股靠"左手倒右手"涨，加密货币偷偷钻进银行 更有意思的是加密货币，以前摩根大通的CEO还喊着要禁它，结果今年自己发了个加密代币存款，规 模都到80亿美元了，这就是"嘴上说不要，身体很诚实"。 但加密货币这东西波动太大，上个月比特币一下子跌了25%，要是持有这些代币的客户慌了要取钱，银 行拿什么兜底？ 这风险可不是小事，跟2008年次贷危机时，那些没人要的房贷资产差不多，都在偷偷钻进传统金融体系 里。 先说美股，现在涨得挺热闹，但底下的门道有点"虚"。 就拿英伟达来说，本来想觉得它股价涨是因为芯片卖得好，后来发现不对，它给OpenAI借钱，OpenAI 拿着这钱又去买它的芯片。 这不就是"左手倒右手"嘛，硬生 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the stock market, particularly the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs before experiencing a downturn, causing panic among investors [3][31]. - The absence of the U.S. CPI data has led to market fears regarding the Federal Reserve's cautious approach, with concerns that interest rates may not be lowered in December [4][6]. - The article highlights that despite the lack of CPI data, the Federal Reserve has other data to consider, and the current economic situation in the U.S. is not as strong as it appears, masked by the tech boom [9][10]. Group 2 - There has been a significant increase in non-bank loans in the U.S., with $550 billion in new loans in the first ten months of the year, marking a 40% growth rate [18][19]. - Non-bank loans have surpassed the total of real estate, industrial, and consumer loans combined, indicating a shift in credit dynamics [19][21]. - The article outlines the main areas where non-bank loans are directed, including commercial real estate, residential mortgages, corporate credit, and consumer finance, driven by tighter bank regulations and the need for flexible financing [22][23]. Group 3 - The article notes a style shift in the market, with a general decline influenced by overseas factors, while certain sectors like finance and small-cap stocks have shown resilience [31][33]. - The Hong Kong stock market is more affected by overseas influences, and there have been recommendations to increase positions in insurance and Hong Kong dividend stocks during corrections [34][39]. - The article emphasizes that despite internal style rotations, the overall index is still on a slow upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs [43][44]. Group 4 - Recent economic data shows a decline in M1 and M2 growth rates, with M1 decreasing to 6.2% and M2 to 8.2%, indicating potential challenges in the stock market [53][59]. - Retail sales growth has slowed to 2.93%, suggesting a sluggish recovery in consumer spending, with restaurant revenues showing some improvement [62][66]. - Real estate investment has dropped by 14.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector, but the article suggests that funds from the real estate market may flow into the stock market [67][68]. Group 5 - The article mentions a rebound in soybean meal prices, with potential for further increases if supply issues arise towards the end of the year [69]. - It highlights the cyclical nature of the market, emphasizing that returns are not linear and that investors should be prepared for periods of volatility [71][73]. - The article advises against certain mindsets during bull markets, such as chasing highs or being overly sensitive to account fluctuations, suggesting a focus on long-term investment strategies [76][77].

Core Viewpoint - A $1.7 trillion "black box market" of private credit is expanding, posing risks potentially greater than those seen during the 2008 Lehman Brothers crisis [1][3]. Group 1: Market Overview - The private credit market is becoming a significant risk hub within the global financial system, characterized by a lack of transparency and regulatory oversight [3][10]. - The market has grown at an alarming rate, exceeding 20% annually, with a current size of approximately $1.6 trillion [7][9]. Group 2: Risk Factors - Rising interest rates are creating a lagging effect, with many companies facing interest burdens that have increased by over 200% due to floating rates [10][11]. - There is a liquidity illusion in the market, where credit products are rarely traded, leading to potential price drops of 40% or more during market stress [11]. - The devaluation of collateral, such as corporate equity or real estate, poses a significant risk, especially if combined with rising rates and liquidity issues [11]. Group 3: Systemic Risk Concerns - The concentration of risk is notable, with the top ten private credit managers controlling over 80% of the market, making the system vulnerable to a domino effect from any single institution's failure [11]. - Commercial banks have deepened their involvement in the private credit market, increasing systemic risk as highlighted by stress tests from the Federal Reserve [11]. - There is a lack of effective resolution mechanisms for shadow banking institutions, which could complicate responses to a potential crisis [11]. Group 4: Warning Signals - The spread on CCC-rated CLOs has widened significantly, indicating growing concerns about default risks [12]. - There has been a historical high in early withdrawals from U.S. retirement accounts, suggesting individuals may be preparing for economic downturns [12]. - Bankruptcy filings among U.S. companies have increased by 61% year-over-year, with many being significant borrowers in the private credit space [12].

Core Insights - Tether is expected to achieve a profit close to $15 billion this year, driven by a remarkable profit margin of 99% and substantial returns from reserve assets in a high-interest-rate environment [1][3][7] - The company is in talks for a financing round that could value it at $500 billion, potentially making it one of the most valuable private companies globally [1][6][8] - Tether's USDT market capitalization accounts for approximately 60% of the stablecoin market, with over 500 million users, reflecting its expanding global footprint [1][4][9] Financial Performance - Tether's unique business model supports its high profitability, with a reserve asset portfolio primarily consisting of cash and short-term U.S. Treasury securities, generating significant interest income [7] - The company reported a profit of about $13 billion last year, benefiting from the high-interest environment [7] - Tether's USDT currently has a circulating value of approximately $183 billion, representing a dominant market share [7] Financing and Valuation - Tether is negotiating to raise up to $20 billion by selling about 3% of its shares, which would elevate its valuation to around $500 billion, surpassing companies like ByteDance and matching OpenAI [6][8] - The company has received significant interest from major investors, including SoftBank and Ark Investment Management, indicating strong external confidence in Tether's business model [8] User Base and Market Expansion - Tether's user base has surpassed 500 million, equating to about 6.25% of the global population, showcasing its extensive reach [4][9] - The company plans to re-enter the U.S. market later this year with a new stablecoin project named USAT, aiming to leverage favorable regulatory conditions [9] - Tether is diversifying its investment portfolio, including a notable investment in Juventus Football Club, where it holds 11.5% of shares and is seeking to influence the board [9]

Core Insights - Tether Holdings Ltd. is attracting global capital due to its impressive profitability and market dominance, with an expected profit nearing $15 billion this year and potential financing discussions that could value the company at $500 billion [1][3][5] Financial Performance - Tether's profit margin is an astonishing 99%, driven by high-interest income from its substantial reserve assets, primarily consisting of cash and short-term U.S. Treasury securities [5][6] - The company reported a profit of approximately $13 billion last year, benefiting from the high-interest rate environment [5][6] Market Position and User Base - Tether's USDT currently has a market circulation value of about $183 billion, holding approximately 60% of the entire stablecoin market [5] - The number of "real users" of Tether has surpassed 500 million, representing about 6.25% of the global population, indicating its extensive global influence [1][7] Financing and Valuation - Tether is in negotiations to raise up to $20 billion by selling about 3% of its shares, which could elevate its valuation to around $500 billion, placing it among the world's top unicorn companies [3][6] - Major investment firms, including SoftBank and Ark Investment Management, have shown interest in participating in this financing round, which could enhance Tether's mainstream applications in technology and finance [6][7] Business Expansion - Tether plans to re-enter the U.S. market later this year with a new stablecoin project named USAT, aiming to leverage favorable policies towards cryptocurrencies [7] - The company is diversifying its investment portfolio, including a notable investment in Juventus Football Club, where it holds 11.5% of the shares and has proposed two board candidates to represent fans [7]

Core Viewpoint - The bankruptcy of First Brands has triggered a significant decline in the stock prices of major private equity (PE) firms, despite the overall stability of the U.S. stock market, indicating a deep-rooted concern about the financial health of the private credit market and its potential systemic risks [2][3][19]. Group 1: Impact of First Brands Bankruptcy - First Brands filed for bankruptcy on September 28, with liabilities estimated between $10 billion and $50 billion and assets between $1 billion and $10 billion [18]. - The bankruptcy has affected numerous lenders, including traditional financial institutions and private credit funds, leading to concerns about broader implications for the financial system [18][19]. - The incident has raised fears that First Brands' collapse could be the first in a series of failures, potentially leading to a wider financial crisis, reminiscent of the subprime mortgage crisis [18][19]. Group 2: First Brands Company Overview - First Brands was a rapidly expanding automotive parts manufacturer, focusing on the aftermarket with a wide range of products [4][8]. - The company was founded in 2013 and grew through aggressive acquisitions, becoming a major player in the automotive aftermarket by 2024, with net sales reaching $5 billion [8][10]. - The company employed a "paired acquisition" strategy, acquiring brands with strong market presence and those with local manufacturing capabilities to enhance production efficiency [7][10]. Group 3: Financial Practices and Risks - First Brands' expansion was heavily financed through unconventional means, including private credit and complex off-balance-sheet financing, leading to a significant accumulation of hidden debt [11][12]. - The lack of regulatory oversight allowed First Brands to avoid disclosing the full extent of its off-balance-sheet liabilities, creating a misleading picture of its financial health [11][12]. - The company's financial troubles became apparent when it attempted to refinance $6.2 billion in debt, leading to a collapse in bond prices and a downgrade to junk status by rating agencies [12][13]. Group 4: Broader Industry Implications - The rapid growth of the private credit market, which has expanded tenfold over the past decade, has created a new "shadow banking" system, raising concerns about the quality of assets held by investors [19]. - Major PE firms, despite not being directly linked to First Brands, have seen their stock prices decline due to fears surrounding their own private credit operations, which have become crucial revenue sources [19].

Economic Development - The core argument suggests that China's economic growth targets should not be based solely on estimates of "potential economic growth rates" due to considerable uncertainty in these estimates [4][5][6] - The estimation of China's potential economic growth rate varies widely among scholars, ranging from 5% to 8%, and there is a lack of official estimates from authoritative government bodies [5][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of using a trial-and-error approach in setting economic growth targets, advocating for expansionary fiscal policies when indicators such as inflation and employment are low [7] - Long-term factors influencing economic performance should not be used to explain short-term economic changes, as many intermediate factors affect current economic growth [8][9] - Macroeconomic regulation and structural reform are not mutually exclusive; both are necessary to address complex economic issues [10][11] - The article discusses the significance of the "Four Trillion Yuan Stimulus Plan" and its long-term effects on China's economic growth and financial stability [17][18] - It highlights the relationship between monetary policy and real estate regulation, noting that fluctuations in monetary policy often correlate with changes in housing prices [29][31] - The article critiques the belief that inflation is always a monetary phenomenon, presenting evidence of instances where inflation rates did not align with monetary supply growth [22][23][24] - It concludes that the lessons learned from over 20 years of macroeconomic regulation in China emphasize the importance of maintaining growth as a fundamental objective [33]