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东吴证券晨会纪要-20250722
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-21 23:30
Macro Strategy - The report indicates that the supply and demand for direct financing markets, such as Sci-tech bonds, are expected to continue expanding, supported by structural policy tools [1][9][10] - Recent US economic data shows marginal improvement, with consumer confidence and retail sales exceeding expectations, leading to a rise in US stocks [1][10] - The US 10-year Treasury yield increased by 0.62bps to 4.416% over the week, influenced by mixed economic signals and dovish comments from Fed officials [1][11] Fixed Income - The bond yields slightly decreased this week, recovering from the previous week's rise due to restrictions on bond purchases by rural commercial banks, but the "stock-bond seesaw" effect limits the downward space for yields [2][14] - The report highlights concerns regarding the convertible bond market, including a potential reduction in net supply and the impact of profit-taking by insurance and wealth management products [2][17] Company Analysis - UBTECH Robotics has secured the largest procurement order for humanoid robots, accelerating its commercialization process. Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are set at 2.016 billion, 2.823 billion, and 3.705 billion yuan, respectively, with a "buy" rating maintained [5] - Jingcheng Machinery has laid the foundation for a new production base for 600,000 pieces of 8-inch silicon carbide substrates, enhancing its competitive edge in the market. The company aims to benefit from the transition to 8-inch substrates, which can reduce costs significantly [5][6] - Great Wall Motors reported H1 2025 results that met expectations, with revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 at 219.5 billion, 237.6 billion, and 253.8 billion yuan, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [7] - Tuojing Technology anticipates significant growth in Q2 2025, with revenue expected to be between 1.21 billion and 1.26 billion yuan, driven by new product contributions and improved gross margins [8]