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牛市ETF如何布局?历次牛市最强行业盘点
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-08-22 07:33
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market's bull market does not guarantee profits for all industries, as there is significant divergence in performance among sectors, with some industries outperforming the market while others lag behind [1] Historical Bull Market Analysis - Historical data from the last decade indicates that each bull market's leading sectors are closely aligned with the prevailing development trends of the era [1] - In the 2005-2006 bull market, industries such as non-ferrous metals, non-bank financials, and real estate benefited from urbanization and economic reforms [1] - The 2014-2015 bull market saw a rise in TMT sectors due to the emergence of smart manufacturing and new consumption trends, alongside a stimulus-driven infrastructure boom [1] - Post-2019, sectors like liquor and pharmaceuticals thrived due to consumption upgrades, while the "dual carbon" policy led to a surge in carbon-neutral industries [1][2] Industry Performance in Bull Markets - The analysis of the top 10 performing industries in each bull market reveals that machinery, building materials, and defense industries consistently ranked high, with significant gains even in years they did not make the top 10 [3] ETF Investment Strategies - **Machinery Sector**: The machinery sector, particularly in engineering and robotics, has maintained high performance. The Tianhong CSI Robotics ETF (159770) has a significant scale of over 7 billion, indicating strong market interest [4] - **Defense Industry**: The defense sector has shown consistent high performance across all four major bull markets from 2000 to 2021, with ETFs like Guotai CSI Defense ETF (512660) and Fuguo CSI Defense Leaders ETF (512710) exceeding 10 billion in scale [6] - **Building Materials**: The building materials sector is expected to benefit from increased demand and supply adjustments, with ETFs like Guotai CSI All-Index Building Materials ETF (159745) showing scale advantages [7]
兴证张忆东:增量资金的影响下 港股投资“A股化”或将是趋势
智通财经网· 2025-05-19 08:20
智通财经APP获悉,兴业证券张忆东发布研报称,2025年下半年风雨之后见彩虹,港股将震荡向上。第 一阶段,中国经济充分消化关税影响之前,港股或将维持"底部抬升的大箱体震荡"格局。第二阶段,中 国经济充分消化了关税影响之后,随着中国经济政策效果显现,港股行情有望迎来基本面和风险偏好双 改善,走出创新高之旅。 一、国际秩序重构的动荡期来临,资产配置或有三大机遇 以史为鉴,上世纪70年代国际秩序动荡期的资产配置。70年代大国博弈深化,布雷顿森林体系瓦解、越 战失败和石油危机,标志着国际政治经济秩序进入动荡期和重构期。70年代黄金超级大牛市应运而生, 美元陷入十年贬值周期,美欧股市陷入十年滞胀下的"非牛市"震荡,相反,日本股市表现远远超过美 股。 美股方面,兴业证券指出,2025年二三季度美国经济或难逃下行。2025年美国经济可能已经开启下行周 期。美国通胀依然保持较高的粘性,"对等关税"政策将进一步阻碍通胀下行。下半年美债利率或难大幅 下降。美股下半年或将遭遇估值和盈利的双杀,全球资金将流向跟美股低相关度的优质资产。美股的风 险溢价没有充分定价美国资产的长期不确定性。 兴业证券主要观点如下: 当前国际秩序再次进入动 ...