Core Viewpoint - The current gold bull market is driven by geopolitical uncertainties and a shift in the global monetary system, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][10][11]. Group 1: Historical Context and Performance - From 1971 to 1980, the price of gold surged from $35 to $850 per ounce, equivalent to $3,493 today, maintaining its purchasing power over time [1]. - The annualized return on gold from 1971 to 2023 is approximately 8%, with the past 20 years at 10.2% and the past 10 years at 13.6%, while 2024 has seen a remarkable increase of 28.2% [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The relationship between gold prices and real interest rates has changed since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, with gold prices rising despite increasing real interest rates [2]. - The decline in trust towards the US dollar and the traditional bond market is prompting investors to seek alternative safe-haven assets, including gold [3][10]. Group 3: Institutional and Retail Investment Trends - Major credit rating agencies have downgraded the US's AAA sovereign credit rating, which is influencing investor behavior towards gold as a safer investment [3]. - The "gold+" investment strategy is gaining traction, with many multi-asset portfolios allocating 5% to 10% of their assets to gold, and some reaching as high as 30% [6][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the restructuring of the global capital system are expected to sustain the demand for gold, as it is viewed as a hedge against uncertainty [10][11]. - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are increasingly adding gold to their reserves, with China's gold reserves reported at 73.96 million ounces, marking a continuous increase [10].

Core Viewpoint - The former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir emphasizes that China's development is unstoppable and that the U.S. tariff policies will ultimately backfire [1][3]. Group 1: U.S.-China Relations - Mahathir argues that the U.S.-China competition is not merely a power struggle but a clash of two development models and international order perspectives [1]. - The U.S. attempts to contain China's rise through tariffs, but historical evidence suggests that such actions often lead to unintended consequences [1][3]. - The trade competition initiated during Trump's administration has accelerated China's technological self-sufficiency, particularly in the semiconductor industry [1]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Impact - Trump's tariff policies have led to increased costs for American businesses, with the U.S. import price index expected to rise by 8.3% year-on-year in 2024, resulting in an average additional expenditure of $1,200 per household [3]. - The U.S. faces a structural shift in the international landscape, with declining trust in U.S. policies among European allies and a collective refusal from ASEAN countries to take sides in the U.S.-China rivalry [3][5]. Group 3: Global Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The deep integration of global supply chains means that forced decoupling would harm both the U.S. and China, as evidenced by Apple's supply chain reliance on China, which remains at 90% [5]. - Emerging market countries prioritize development opportunities over ideological alignments, as indicated by Indonesia's stance on not choosing between the U.S. and China [5]. Group 4: China's Governance and Technological Edge - China's governance model allows for efficient long-term planning and execution, exemplified by its rapid development of the world's largest commercial 5G network in just five years [3][5]. - In key technological fields like artificial intelligence and renewable energy, China is leading, with 35% of global AI papers published in 2024 and 80% of photovoltaic component production [6]. Group 5: International Order and Cooperation - The international order is undergoing reconstruction, with a growing rejection of U.S. unilateralism, as shown by 120 countries opposing U.S. interference in other nations' affairs [5]. - China's global development initiatives have garnered responses from over 100 countries, indicating a shift towards a more multipolar world [5]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Mahathir warns that the U.S. must reassess its China policy, as reliance solely on containment could accelerate its decline [8]. - The real challenge lies in constructing a fairer international order rather than determining which nation will dominate [8].

Core Viewpoints - The current international order is undergoing significant upheaval, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic challenges, marking the beginning of a new era of uncertainty [1][10][14] - The AI wave represents a new technological revolution that could help establish a more equitable and inclusive global economic order [1][18] - The Hong Kong stock market is poised for a long-term bull run, benefiting from the restructuring of international order and the revaluation of Chinese assets [1][34][41] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Strategic assets during this period of upheaval include gold, military industry, and digital assets, which serve as hedges against the dominance of the dollar [18][65] - Growth-oriented investments in technology and new consumption sectors are seen as offensive strategies, while dividend assets and gold act as defensive shields [1][58][66] - The Chinese market is expected to stabilize while Western markets face volatility, creating a favorable environment for Chinese assets [24][25][41] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market is transitioning from being foreign-led to becoming a crucial international financial center for China, supported by government policies [35][36][37] - The influx of quality companies and the rise of new consumption trends are reshaping the market landscape, with significant growth potential in sectors like technology and consumer services [40][41][66] - The investment style in Hong Kong is increasingly mirroring that of A-shares, with a focus on both growth and dividend strategies [55][56] Group 3: Economic Context - The current economic climate is reminiscent of the 1970s, with rising fiscal deficits and social tensions in the U.S., leading to a potential decline in the dollar's global standing [11][12][16] - The U.S. is facing significant internal challenges, including a high debt-to-GDP ratio and increasing wealth disparity, which could impact its global economic influence [11][12][17] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff policies are likely to create a prolonged period of economic uncertainty, affecting both U.S. and global markets [14][47][48]

智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券张忆东发布研报称，2025年下半年风雨之后见彩虹，港股将震荡向上。第 一阶段，中国经济充分消化关税影响之前，港股或将维持"底部抬升的大箱体震荡"格局。第二阶段，中 国经济充分消化了关税影响之后，随着中国经济政策效果显现，港股行情有望迎来基本面和风险偏好双 改善，走出创新高之旅。 一、国际秩序重构的动荡期来临，资产配置或有三大机遇 以史为鉴，上世纪70年代国际秩序动荡期的资产配置。70年代大国博弈深化，布雷顿森林体系瓦解、越 战失败和石油危机，标志着国际政治经济秩序进入动荡期和重构期。70年代黄金超级大牛市应运而生， 美元陷入十年贬值周期，美欧股市陷入十年滞胀下的"非牛市"震荡，相反，日本股市表现远远超过美 股。 美股方面，兴业证券指出，2025年二三季度美国经济或难逃下行。2025年美国经济可能已经开启下行周 期。美国通胀依然保持较高的粘性，"对等关税"政策将进一步阻碍通胀下行。下半年美债利率或难大幅 下降。美股下半年或将遭遇估值和盈利的双杀，全球资金将流向跟美股低相关度的优质资产。美股的风 险溢价没有充分定价美国资产的长期不确定性。 兴业证券主要观点如下： 当前国际秩序再次进入动 ...