（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 截至午间收盘，中证A500指数上涨0.3%，中证A100指数上涨0.1%，中证A50指数上涨0.04%，A500ETF 易方达（159361）半日成交额近50亿元。 中金公司表示，2026年，国际秩序重构与中国产业创新两大因素共振，将支持A股表现。从节奏上看， 市场或将呈现前升后稳，在资金活跃及估值抬升背景下，可关注波动率提升及与基本面匹配的节奏。 ...

人民财讯1月5日电，中金公司研究部首席国内策略分析师李求索表示，2026年，国际秩序重构与中国产业创新两大因素共振，将支持A股表现。 从节奏上看，市场或将呈现前升后稳，在资金活跃及估值抬升背景下，可关注波动率提升及与基本面匹配的节奏。 李求索认为，有较多的成长领域将会延续景气，市场风格有望趋向均衡，可关注三条主线：1.景气成长：AI（人工智能）领域有望逐步进入应用 兑现阶段，算力、光模块、云计算基础设施层面仍有机会，或更偏国产方向；应用端关注机器人、消费电子、智能驾驶和软件应用等。2.外需突 围：结合出海趋势和对美敞口，关注家电、工程机械、商用客车、电网设备和游戏，以及有色金属等全球定价资源品。3.周期反转：关注供需问 题临近改善拐点或政策支持领域，如化工、养殖业、新能源等。 李求索表示，期待资本市场政策进一步促进市场"长期""稳进"。在国际货币体系重构、全球资金再配置的背景下，可进一步推动资本市场对外开 放，例如增加外资可投资范围、鼓励中资券商国际化发展等。在支持科创企业融资、提升市场包容度的同时，继续优化中长期资金入市机制，从 而更好地配合科创企业对耐心资本的需求，同时为活跃的市场增加稳定性与韧性。 （原 ...

2025年A股市场整体呈现震荡上行趋势，节奏上前稳后升，上证指数创十年新高。 2025年全年，上证指数涨18.4%，沪深300涨17.7%，创业板指、科创50 分别涨49.6%、35.9%，中证红利跌1.4%；上证指数8月突破十年新高，年内高点达4034.1。宏观层面，国际秩序重构和国内产业创新共振，成为本轮行情 的核心驱动力，推动中国资产重估。资金面较为活跃，个人投资者积极入市、居民存款搬家；机构投资者受益政策鼓励引导中长期资金入市。风格层面， 整体来看小盘风格跑赢大盘、成长跑赢价值，至年底阶段市场风格略趋于均衡。行业层面，有色金属、通信、电子领涨；食品饮料、煤炭相对较弱。我们 在2024年11月发布的 《A股市场2025年展望：已过重山》 中认为，A股市场底部可能已过（具体参见2024年9月底发布的 《A股见"大底"了吗？》 ）， 2025年投资者风险偏好有望整体好于2024年，结构性机会进一步增多；节奏上，2025年市场变化频率相较2024年更高但振幅收窄；配置上，重回赛道布 局，关注景气成长、韧性外需、新型红利、政策支持四条主线。2025年下半年展望 《A股市场2025下半年展望：韧稳致远》 延续了前 ...

李求索表示，期待资本市场政策进一步促进市场"长期""稳进"。在国际货币体系重构、全球资金再配置 的背景下，可进一步推动资本市场对外开放，例如增加外资可投资范围、鼓励中资券商国际化发展等。 在支持科创企业融资、提升市场包容度的同时，继续优化中长期资金入市机制，从而更好地配合科创企 业对耐心资本的需求，同时为活跃的市场增加稳定性与韧性。 （文章来源：证券时报） 中金公司研究部首席国内策略分析师李求索表示，2026年，国际秩序重构与中国产业创新两大因素共 振，将支持A股表现。从节奏上看，市场或将呈现前升后稳，在资金活跃及估值抬升背景下，可关注波 动率提升及与基本面匹配的节奏。 李求索认为，有较多的成长领域将会延续景气，市场风格有望趋向均衡，可关注三条主线：1.景气成 长：AI（人工智能）领域有望逐步进入应用兑现阶段，算力、光模块、云计算基础设施层面仍有机 会，或更偏国产方向；应用端关注机器人、消费电子、智能驾驶和软件应用等。2.外需突围：结合出海 趋势和对美敞口，关注家电、工程机械、商用客车、电网设备和游戏，以及有色金属等全球定价资源 品。3.周期反转：关注供需问题临近改善拐点或政策支持领域，如化工、养殖业、新能源 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current gold bull market is driven by geopolitical uncertainties and a shift in the global monetary system, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][10][11]. Group 1: Historical Context and Performance - From 1971 to 1980, the price of gold surged from $35 to $850 per ounce, equivalent to $3,493 today, maintaining its purchasing power over time [1]. - The annualized return on gold from 1971 to 2023 is approximately 8%, with the past 20 years at 10.2% and the past 10 years at 13.6%, while 2024 has seen a remarkable increase of 28.2% [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The relationship between gold prices and real interest rates has changed since the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, with gold prices rising despite increasing real interest rates [2]. - The decline in trust towards the US dollar and the traditional bond market is prompting investors to seek alternative safe-haven assets, including gold [3][10]. Group 3: Institutional and Retail Investment Trends - Major credit rating agencies have downgraded the US's AAA sovereign credit rating, which is influencing investor behavior towards gold as a safer investment [3]. - The "gold+" investment strategy is gaining traction, with many multi-asset portfolios allocating 5% to 10% of their assets to gold, and some reaching as high as 30% [6][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the restructuring of the global capital system are expected to sustain the demand for gold, as it is viewed as a hedge against uncertainty [10][11]. - Central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are increasingly adding gold to their reserves, with China's gold reserves reported at 73.96 million ounces, marking a continuous increase [10].

Core Viewpoint - The former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir emphasizes that China's development is unstoppable and that the U.S. tariff policies will ultimately backfire [1][3]. Group 1: U.S.-China Relations - Mahathir argues that the U.S.-China competition is not merely a power struggle but a clash of two development models and international order perspectives [1]. - The U.S. attempts to contain China's rise through tariffs, but historical evidence suggests that such actions often lead to unintended consequences [1][3]. - The trade competition initiated during Trump's administration has accelerated China's technological self-sufficiency, particularly in the semiconductor industry [1]. Group 2: U.S. Economic Impact - Trump's tariff policies have led to increased costs for American businesses, with the U.S. import price index expected to rise by 8.3% year-on-year in 2024, resulting in an average additional expenditure of $1,200 per household [3]. - The U.S. faces a structural shift in the international landscape, with declining trust in U.S. policies among European allies and a collective refusal from ASEAN countries to take sides in the U.S.-China rivalry [3][5]. Group 3: Global Supply Chain and Market Dynamics - The deep integration of global supply chains means that forced decoupling would harm both the U.S. and China, as evidenced by Apple's supply chain reliance on China, which remains at 90% [5]. - Emerging market countries prioritize development opportunities over ideological alignments, as indicated by Indonesia's stance on not choosing between the U.S. and China [5]. Group 4: China's Governance and Technological Edge - China's governance model allows for efficient long-term planning and execution, exemplified by its rapid development of the world's largest commercial 5G network in just five years [3][5]. - In key technological fields like artificial intelligence and renewable energy, China is leading, with 35% of global AI papers published in 2024 and 80% of photovoltaic component production [6]. Group 5: International Order and Cooperation - The international order is undergoing reconstruction, with a growing rejection of U.S. unilateralism, as shown by 120 countries opposing U.S. interference in other nations' affairs [5]. - China's global development initiatives have garnered responses from over 100 countries, indicating a shift towards a more multipolar world [5]. Group 6: Future Outlook - Mahathir warns that the U.S. must reassess its China policy, as reliance solely on containment could accelerate its decline [8]. - The real challenge lies in constructing a fairer international order rather than determining which nation will dominate [8].

Core Viewpoints - The current international order is undergoing significant upheaval, driven by geopolitical tensions and economic challenges, marking the beginning of a new era of uncertainty [1][10][14] - The AI wave represents a new technological revolution that could help establish a more equitable and inclusive global economic order [1][18] - The Hong Kong stock market is poised for a long-term bull run, benefiting from the restructuring of international order and the revaluation of Chinese assets [1][34][41] Group 1: Investment Opportunities - Strategic assets during this period of upheaval include gold, military industry, and digital assets, which serve as hedges against the dominance of the dollar [18][65] - Growth-oriented investments in technology and new consumption sectors are seen as offensive strategies, while dividend assets and gold act as defensive shields [1][58][66] - The Chinese market is expected to stabilize while Western markets face volatility, creating a favorable environment for Chinese assets [24][25][41] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market is transitioning from being foreign-led to becoming a crucial international financial center for China, supported by government policies [35][36][37] - The influx of quality companies and the rise of new consumption trends are reshaping the market landscape, with significant growth potential in sectors like technology and consumer services [40][41][66] - The investment style in Hong Kong is increasingly mirroring that of A-shares, with a focus on both growth and dividend strategies [55][56] Group 3: Economic Context - The current economic climate is reminiscent of the 1970s, with rising fiscal deficits and social tensions in the U.S., leading to a potential decline in the dollar's global standing [11][12][16] - The U.S. is facing significant internal challenges, including a high debt-to-GDP ratio and increasing wealth disparity, which could impact its global economic influence [11][12][17] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff policies are likely to create a prolonged period of economic uncertainty, affecting both U.S. and global markets [14][47][48]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Industrial Securities suggests that after a turbulent period, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to trend upwards starting in the second half of 2025, following the full digestion of tariff impacts on the Chinese economy [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market may maintain a "bottom-lifting large box oscillation" pattern before fully digesting tariff impacts, with potential for improvement in fundamentals and risk appetite thereafter [1] - The U.S. economy is projected to face a downturn in the second and third quarters of 2025, with persistent inflation and challenges in monetary policy affecting market confidence [3][4] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report identifies three strategic asset classes during the current period of international order restructuring: gold, military industry, and digital assets [2] - The focus on technology and new consumption sectors is highlighted, with an emphasis on distinguishing between genuine growth and market noise [8] - The upcoming peak period for the unlocking of restricted shares from April to September 2025 presents buying opportunities for genuine growth stocks, as adjustments from unlockings and reductions are seen as noise [7][8] Group 3: Sector Highlights - The report emphasizes the importance of new consumption trends, including service consumption, spiritual consumption, and AI consumption, which are expected to drive growth in the Chinese market [5] - The technology sector is noted for its breakthroughs, showcasing China's competitive strength in areas such as AI, robotics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5] Group 4: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The restructuring of the international order is expected to benefit the Hong Kong stock market, with a wave of quality companies listing and increased inflow of domestic and international capital [6] - The report anticipates a long-term bull market for Hong Kong stocks driven by the revaluation of Chinese assets and the influx of new economy companies [6][7] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests a strategic long position in the Hong Kong stock market, with a focus on both offensive and defensive measures [7] - The trend of "A-share characteristics" in Hong Kong is expected to enhance market activity, allowing for a broader range of investment opportunities beyond traditional blue-chip stocks [8]