标普：中国房地产市场仍在探底。预计2025年全国新房销售额将下降8%至8.8-9万亿元，2026年将下降6%-7%。土地收购大幅超额，加上2025-2026年销售额低于预期，可能会对一些开发商的信用状况造成风险。购房者信心依然脆弱。因此预计政府可能会推出进一步的措施来支持需求。然而，额外的支持措施可能只会逐步推出，并且会根据具体城市的具体情况而定。五年期LPR今年仅调降10基点，不及去年全年的60基点，表明政府没有像过往一样加大放松力度。租金下降也将压低房价。随着租金持续下跌，预计投资者需求将持续低迷。潜在购房者也可能选择租房而非购房。🗒️标普此前预期今年销售额下降3%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The average rent for landlords in 55 key cities in China has been declining for 11 consecutive months, with Shanghai experiencing the most significant drop [2][3]. Group 1: Rental Market Trends - In Shanghai, the average rent for personal housing has decreased by 11.78% year-on-year, with some landlords reporting a drop of nearly one-third from peak rental prices [3][6]. - The rental market in Shanghai has seen a significant increase in the supply of personal housing, reaching a three-year high, with a total of 618,000 new personal housing units expected by July 2025, marking a 12.19% year-on-year increase [7]. Group 2: Impact of Affordable Housing - The introduction of high-quality affordable rental housing projects has been a key factor in the ongoing pressure on personal housing rents. For instance, the Yangpu District has developed quality rental housing aimed at new citizens and young talents [3][6]. - The supply of affordable rental housing in Shanghai is projected to surge in the next two years, potentially exceeding the previous two years' supply by 10,000 to 20,000 units annually, which will continue to exert downward pressure on personal housing rents [6][9]. Group 3: Landlord Sentiment - Landlords are experiencing a shift in mindset due to the prolonged period of low rental prices, with some expressing a willingness to lower rents to attract tenants, while others prefer to leave properties vacant rather than significantly reduce prices [9]. - The sentiment among landlords indicates a struggle to adapt to the current market conditions, with some landlords feeling the pressure of declining rents and expressing concerns about the sustainability of their rental income [9].

Core Viewpoint - The average rent for landlords in 55 key cities in China has been declining for 11 consecutive months, with Shanghai experiencing the most significant drop in rental prices [1][2]. Rental Market Trends - In Shanghai, the rental price for personal housing has decreased by 11.78% year-on-year, with some landlords reporting a drop of nearly one-third from peak rental prices [3][7]. - The increase in the supply of personal rental listings has led to intensified competition, resulting in a record high of 618,000 new personal rental units in 55 cities, a year-on-year increase of 12.19% [7][8]. Impact of Affordable Housing - The introduction of high-quality affordable rental housing projects in Shanghai, particularly in areas like Yangpu District, is contributing to the downward pressure on rental prices [4][6]. - The supply of affordable rental housing is expected to continue to rise, with over 30,000 units already planned in the Fengxian District, leading to further reductions in rental costs for urban youth [5][6]. Landlord Sentiment - Landlords are experiencing a shift in mindset, with some expressing a willingness to lower rents to attract tenants, while others prefer to leave properties vacant rather than significantly reduce prices [8]. - The overall sentiment among landlords indicates a struggle to adapt to the ongoing rental price adjustments, with no signs of rental increases in the near future [8].