国债期货日报 | 2026-02-03 PMI超预期，国债期货涨跌分化 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策： 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币 信号；中央经济工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松 的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境；2026 年1月19日起，下调再贷款、再贴现等一篮子利率0.25个百分点，同时今年还存在继续降准降息的空间。（2）通胀： 12月CPI同比上升0.8%。 财政：（3）财政：2025年全年财政收支整体未达预期，收入受税收走弱与非税高基数拖累，全年一般公共预算 收入同比下降1.7%；支出节奏前置，年末力度减弱，全年完成度偏低。结构上呈现分化特征，民生支出总体稳定， 基建类支出占比下降，土地财政收入持续疲软。展望2026年，财政政策预计延续积极，强调"总量增加、结构更优"， 支出力度有望加强，节奏继续前置，对稳增长形成支撑。（4）金融：2025年前12个月份社会融资规模增量累计为 35.6万亿元，比去年同期3.34万亿：12月末，M2 ...

近期央行发布会表态之后，债市分歧进一步加剧。最新披露的LPR（贷款市场报价利率）连续8个月按 兵不动，市场上多空博弈出现新的变化。本周以来，已处于高位多时的长债利率在无明显利好刺激的背 景下出现连续下行。 不过，债市这一"回血"表现还不稳定。1月22日，股市情绪震荡中有所分化，债市则再度震荡回落，国 债期货集体小幅下跌，银行间主要利率债收益率上行。其中，30年期国债活跃券收益率整体先下后上， 尾盘又小幅回落。 对于长债利率迎来补涨，最受关注的力量除了开年银行等机构的配置情况，还有日债、美债被抛售之际 外资的布局。在机构人士看来，短期外资的人民币债券持仓或面临持续波动，但中长期维度下，债市对 外开放的趋势有望助推外资稳步增持中国债券。 长债利率震荡回落 1月20日以来，此前经历长期阴跌并处于高位的长债利率迎来久违的补涨行情。 20日～21日，30年期国债活跃券"25超长特别国债06"收益率接连下行2.75BP（基点）、1.6BP，下破 2.3%后一路降至2.261%。元旦节后持续从高位下行的10年期国债活跃券"25附息国债16"收益率则继续 回落，21日已来到1.83%附近。 不过，这一趋势未能延续，22日债市 ...

与此同时，企业融资和居民信贷成本均保持低位运行。数据显示，2025年12月，新发放企业贷款加权平 均利率和新发放个人住房贷款加权平均利率均大约为3.1%，自2018年下半年以来，分别下降了2.5个和 2.6个百分点。 1月21日，《中国证券报》21日刊发文章《今年首期LPR出炉 两期限品种均"按兵不动"》。文章称，中 国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布2026年1月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR），1年期LPR为 3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%，均较上期维持不变。这也是LPR连续第8个月维持不变。 专家认为，今年第一期LPR继续"按兵不动"符合预期。从LPR报价机制看，作为LPR定价主要参考的7天 期逆回购操作利率并未发生变化，因此LPR较难下降。 "7天逆回购利率和LPR可能适时下调，稳息差是重要考量，降低银行负债成本先行。"兴业研究宏观市 场部高级研究员何帆认为，考虑到今年一季度是贷款重定价和存款到期较为集中的时点，出于稳息差的 考虑，人民银行首先下调了再贷款利率，这有助于为后续降低政策利率创造条件。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，考虑到今年需着力稳定房地产市场，预计金融管理部门有可能通过 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) unchanged, with the 5-year rate at 3.5% and the 1-year rate at 3.0%, marking eight consecutive months without a reduction [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Actions - The PBOC conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation amounting to 158.3 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, which remains unchanged [4][5]. - Despite the lack of a rate cut, the central economic work conference emphasized the continuation of a moderately loose monetary policy, indicating that rate cuts are not the only tool available [6]. Group 2: Structural Monetary Policy - On January 19, 2026, the PBOC announced its first structural "rate cut" of the year, reducing the re-lending and re-discount rates by 0.25 percentage points to support key sectors of the real economy [6]. - The new rates for re-lending to agriculture and small enterprises are set at 0.95%, 1.15%, and 1.25% for 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year terms, respectively, with the re-discount rate adjusted to 1.5% [6]. - This structural policy aims to lower the cost of funds for banks, encouraging them to provide lower-rate loans to small and micro enterprises, technological innovation, and green transformation, thereby reducing the overall financing costs for the real economy [6].

展望后续政策，中国人民银行新闻发言人、副行长邹澜在国新办发布会上谈及降准降息时，表示"今年 还有一定的空间"。他表示，从政策利率来看，外部约束方面，目前人民币汇率比较稳定，美元处于降 息通道，总体来看汇率不构成很强的约束；内部约束方面，2025年以来银行净息差已经出现企稳的迹 象，连续两个季度保持在1.42%，2026年还有规模较大的三年期及五年期等长期存款到期重定价，人民 银行也下调了各项再贷款利率，这些都有助于降低银行付息成本、稳定净息差，为降息创造一定空间。 董希淼判断，2026年LPR下降仍然具有一定空间和较大可能。2025年以来，商业银行多次下调存款利 率，各个期限存款利率处于新低；加上2022年以来存入的定期存款大量到期后重定价，2026年银行负债 成本将继续降低。 作为主要政策利率的7天期逆回购利率自2025年5月下调后一直按兵不动，因此，LPR报价的定价基础本 月未发生改变。 "LPR继续维持不变，符合预期。"招联首席研究员董希淼对记者表示，从银行方面看，尽管净息差有企 稳迹象，但随着持续向实体经济减费让利，银行保持息差基本稳定的压力仍然不小，因此银行缺乏压降 LPR报价加点的动力。此外，数据 ...

Group 1 - The first LPR quotation of the year was released on January 20, 2026, with the 1-year LPR at 3% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both unchanged from previous values, marking eight consecutive months of stability [1] - The stability in LPR is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates and stable market rates, which have reduced the incentive for banks to lower LPR quotes [1] - The underlying reason for the unchanged LPR since June 2025 is the strong export performance and rapid development in high-tech manufacturing, which has helped the macro economy withstand external pressures [1] Group 2 - As of December 2025, the weighted average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans are both around 3.1%, indicating low social financing costs [2] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has indicated that there is still room for rate cuts in 2026, with signs of stabilization in bank net interest margins [2] - The discussion around potential LPR reductions is ongoing, but the timing for significant changes may be pushed to the second quarter of 2026 [2] Group 3 - Despite economic slowdown in Q4 2025 due to real estate adjustments and weakened investment and consumption, employment remains stable and inflation is showing signs of recovery [3] - The GDP growth rate is expected to rebound to around 4.7% in Q1 2026, supported by structural monetary policy tools and investment expansion policies [3] - There is potential for comprehensive rate cuts in 2026, which could lead to a significant decrease in loan rates for businesses and households, aimed at stimulating consumption and investment [3]

2026.01. 20 另外，近期包括1年期银行同业存单到期收益率（AAA级）在内的主要中长端市场利率保持稳定，商 业银行在货币市场的融资成本变化不大。2025年三季度末商业银行净息差为1.42%，与二季度持 平，但较2024年四季度末下降了10个基点。 自2025年5月两个期限LPR各下降10个基点之后，LPR连续8个月"按兵不动"。 1月20日，央行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。 综合市场观点来看，两个期限LPR保持不变符合预期。一方面，政策利率（7天期逆回购操作利率） 保持稳定，LPR报价的定价基础未变；另一方面，银行净息差处于历史低点，报价行缺乏下调加点的 动力。 近期，央行推出包括结构性"降息"在内的一批货币金融政策。不少分析认为，结构性"降息"先行落 地，意味着短期内货币政策将处于观察期，政策利率和LPR有望保持稳定。 LPR继续"按兵不动" 2026年开年第一期LPR继续"按兵不动"符合预期。 从LPR报价机制看，作为LPR定价主要参考的7天期逆回购操作利率并未发生变化。东方金诚首席宏 观分析师王青认为，这意味着1月LPR报价的定价基础没有发 ...

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance and three other departments announced a special guarantee plan for private investment with a total quota of 500 billion yuan, to be implemented over two years [1] - The plan supports loans for small and micro enterprises for various purposes, including equipment and raw material purchases, technological upgrades, and business operations [1] - The plan also covers long-term loans for sectors such as catering, health, elderly care, childcare, home services, culture, entertainment, tourism, sports, green initiatives, digital services, and retail [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance and three other departments released a notice to optimize the fiscal interest subsidy policy for equipment update loans, expanding the support scope and areas [2] - The notice states that for businesses undertaking equipment updates, the central government will subsidize 1.5% of the principal on fixed asset loans for equipment update projects, with a maximum subsidy period of two years [2] Group 3 - The People's Bank of China announced that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for eight consecutive months, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5% [3] - These LPR rates will remain effective until the next announcement [3]

展望2026年，LPR是否还有下降空间，消费贷利率、房贷利率是否还能持续下行？央行副行长邹澜此前在国新办新闻发布会上表示，今年降息降准仍有空 间。 中国货币网LPR走势图截图。 新年首期LPR保持不变 多重因素影响所致 新年伊始，首期LPR保持不动。 今年开年，央行给出了定向降息的"政策礼包"，主要针对的是结构性货币政策工具，并非全面降息。而LPR锚定的政策利率是7天逆回购利率，但目前7天逆 回购利率仍为1.4%，暂未有所变动，因此LPR"按兵不动"符合市场预期。 事实上，当前LPR定价暂未松动，亦有多重因素制约。 近期包括1年期银行同业存单到期收益率（AAA级）在内的主要中长端市场利率保持稳定，商业银行在货币市场的融资成本变化不大。 1月20日，新年第一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）出炉。1年期品种报3.0%，5年期以上品种报3.5%，均与上月保持一致。LPR已连续第8个月"按兵不动"。 回顾2025年，仅在5月下调了一次LPR，包括消费贷利率等常用的1年期LPR及与房贷利率密切相关的5年期及以上LPR，随后LPR便一直"按兵不动"。 董希淼认为，在这种情况下，引导LPR下降并非当务之急。而且，随着市场利率不 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core View - The I2605 contract's center of gravity moved down on Tuesday. With the current decline in Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments and arrivals, a slight reduction in the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills, molten iron production remaining below 2.3 million tons, and the iron ore port inventory reaching a new high, the port continues the inventory accumulation trend, and the spot resources are relatively abundant. Additionally, the first shipment of 200,000 tons of iron ore from Simandou arrived at China Baowu Magang, putting short - term pressure on ore prices. The technical analysis of the I2605 contract shows that the 1 - hour MACD indicator has DIFF and DEA running below the 0 - axis. The reference view is oscillating and bearish, and risk control should be noted. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 789.50 yuan/ton, down 4.50 yuan; the position volume of the I main contract is 586,412 lots, down 29,929 lots. The I 5 - 9 contract spread is 18 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract is - 6,122 lots, up 5,773 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's I warehouse receipts are 1,500 lots, up 700 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract's quote as of 15:00 is 104 US dollars/ton, down 0.66 US dollars. [2] 3.2. Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port is 845 yuan/dry ton, down 9 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 837 yuan/dry ton, down 10 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port is 755 yuan/dry ton, down 11 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) is 48 yuan, down 5 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 104.45 US dollars/ton, down 1.70 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fines at Qingdao Port is 3.11, up 0.07. The estimated import cost is 841 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. [2] 3.3. Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) is 2,929.80 tons, down 251.10 tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 2,897.70 tons, down 117.30 tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 17,288.70 tons, up 244.26 tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,262.22 tons, up 272.63 tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) is 11,965.00 tons, up 911.00 tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) are 22 days, up 5 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 39.95 tons, up 0.81 tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 63.02%, up 1.30%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 43.44 tons, down 0.49 tons. The BDI index is 1,650, up 83. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 20.28 US dollars/ton, up 0.72 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 8.11 US dollars/ton, up 0.66 US dollars. [2] 3.4. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 78.82%, down 0.51%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 85.46%, down 0.60%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) is 6,818 tons, down 169 tons. [2] 3.5. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 18.63%, up 0.12%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 16.03%, up 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 22.15%, up 0.14%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 25.20%, up 0.79%. [2] 3.6. Industry News - From January 12th to January 18th, 2026, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2,929.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251.1 million tons. The total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,246.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 359.8 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,897.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117.3 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,659.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 260.7 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,442.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26.3 million tons. [2]