1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - The global economic and political situation is complex, with the military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran intensifying, which has a significant impact on the energy market and may lead to a long - term energy crisis. The Chinese government will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and take measures to boost domestic demand and promote economic development [10][11][17] - The performance of different industries varies. The gold price has dropped sharply, the aluminum price has risen due to supply shortages, the coal - coke - steel - ore industry has new exploration results, the energy - chemical industry is affected by the Middle East situation, and the agricultural product market, especially the pig - breeding market, is in a downturn [5][6][13] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 slowed down year - on - year, with a growth rate of 4.5%. The manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in February 2026 were below the boom - bust line, at 49.0% and 49.5%, respectively. Social financing scale in February 2026 was 23855 billion yuan. The growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 in February 2026 were 14.1%, 5.9%, and 9.0% respectively. New RMB loans in February 2026 were 9000 billion yuan. CPI in February 2026 increased by 1.3% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 0.9%. Fixed - asset investment in the first two months of 2026 increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8%. Exports in February 2026 increased by 39.6% year - on - year, and imports increased by 13.8% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - Domestic refined oil prices may rise to the "9 - yuan era", with an expected increase of about 2000 yuan/ton. The 1 - year and 5 - year LPRs in March 2026 remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, and experts predict a possible interest rate cut in the middle of the year. The trading rules of platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have been adjusted [2] - The People's Bank of China will maintain a moderately loose monetary policy. The US - China trade relations are expected to improve, and both sides hope to promote economic and trade cooperation. The base differences of domestic commodities vary, and the Middle East situation is tense [3][4] 3.2.2 Metals - The international gold price has dropped by 10.49%, and domestic gold jewelry prices have also declined. The performance of gold - related listed companies may be further differentiated, with upstream gold mining enterprises benefiting the most from the rising gold price. The calculation method of the margin account fund adequacy ratio for ICBC's agent individual precious metal trading business has been modified [5] - Aluminum production in Bahrain has been affected, leading to a sharp rise in international aluminum prices. Battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices have reached new lows in over a month [6][7] 3.2.3 Coal - Coking - Steel - Ore - A large - scale rare - earth mine in Sichuan has increased its reserves by over 200%, and Indonesia is expected to approve a nickel - ore production plan of about 1 billion tons by the end of March [8] 3.2.4 Energy - Chemical - The military conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has affected the safety of navigation in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. The US has threatened to attack Iran's power plants, and Iran has responded strongly. The global energy supply is at risk, and the supply of liquefied petroleum gas in India is in short supply [9][10][11] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - China will implement a plan to increase the income of urban and rural residents to boost consumption. The pig - breeding market is in deep losses, and the state has started to purchase frozen pork for storage. Scientists have developed "long - life rice" [12][13][14] 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - This week, 2423 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 4500 billion yuan of MLF will expire. Last week, the central bank achieved a net injection of 658 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [15] 3.3.2 Key News - The draft financial law is open for public comments, aiming to strengthen financial risk management. China will promote high - quality development and opening - up, and the government will take measures to boost domestic demand. The central bank will promote the high - level opening of the financial industry and maintain a moderately loose monetary policy [16][17] - The performance comparison benchmarks of wealth management products are showing trends of "anchor replacement" and reduction. The LPR has remained stable for ten months. The sixth state - owned bank's financial asset investment company has been established. Iran has put forward six conditions for a ceasefire, and the US is seeking diplomatic solutions [19][20][21] - Some bond - related events have occurred, such as the ineffective bond - holder meeting and the default of debt repayment. Overseas credit ratings of some companies have been adjusted [22] 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - The main interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank bond market in China have been fluctuating within a narrow range. The performance of exchange - traded bonds and convertible bonds has been mixed. Shibor short - term varieties have mostly declined, and the yields of European and US bonds have generally risen [23][24][25] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar has risen, while the US dollar index has also risen, and most non - US currencies have declined [26][27] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the US - Iran conflict may lead to high oil prices for a long time, and China's exports may slow down in the short term. Huatai Fixed - Income is cautious about US bonds. Guosheng Fixed - Income expects the long - end interest rate to recover. Shenwan Fixed - Income provides investment strategies for small and medium - sized banks' Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [28][29][30] 3.3.6 Today's Reminder - On March 23, 2026, a large number of bonds will be listed, issued, and have their payments made, and many bonds will have their principal and interest repaid [30][31] 3.4 Stock Market Key News - The A - share market has shown a significant divergence, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new low this year. The Hong Kong stock market has also declined, but the IPO financing amount has exceeded 100 billion Hong Kong dollars [32]

Key Points Summary Hot News - Trump said he could talk to Iran but didn't want a cease - fire currently, and was confident the Strait of Hormuz would "automatically" reopen. He criticized NATO's performance on the Iran issue. US military officials prepared for deploying ground troops to Iran. Iran threatened to strike US and Israeli "evil officials", and the Yemeni Houthi rebels might block the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait. Switzerland suspended exporting war materials to the US [2] - South Korea and Bahrain joined the "Joint Statement on the Strait of Hormuz" issued by 7 countries including the UK, France, etc., which condemned Iran's de - facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz [2] - China's March LPR remained unchanged for 10 consecutive months, with the 1 - year at 3.0% and the 5 - year - plus at 3.5% [2] - China's National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium with pig - farming enterprises, requiring them to implement production - capacity control measures, adjust the inventory of breeding sows and control the number of pig slaughter [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the minimum opening and closing order quantities of platinum and palladium futures contracts from March 24. The daily price limit was adjusted to 17%, and the trading margin standard to 19% [3] Focus Commodities - Focus on urea, coking coal, liquefied gas, plastic, and PVC [4] Night - session Performance - The night - session performance of different commodity sectors: non - metallic building materials rose 2.48%, precious metals 26.75%, oilseeds 8.96%, soft commodities 2.42%, non - ferrous metals 22.49%, coal - coking - steel - ore 9.36%, energy 8.46%, chemicals 15.09%, grains 1.05%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.95% [4] Position Changes - The position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days are presented, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, etc. [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 1.24%, a monthly decline of 4.94%, and an annual decline of 0.30%. Other equity indices also had different levels of decline or increase [6] - Fixed - income: 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures all had slight declines [6] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index rose 0.80% daily, 17.41% monthly, and 22.87% annually. WTI crude oil had significant increases, while London spot gold and LME copper declined [6] - Others: The US dollar index rose, and the CBOE volatility index had a large increase [6] Major Commodity Trends - The trends of major commodities are presented, including the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold and silver, LME copper, etc., as well as the ratios of gold to oil and copper to gold [7]

Core Viewpoint - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged at 3.00% for the 1-year term and 3.50% for the 5-year term, marking ten consecutive months of stability since the last reduction in May 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: LPR Stability - The stability of the LPR is attributed to the unchanged policy interest rates and the historical low net interest margin of commercial banks, which is currently at 1.42% [1][2]. - The LPR's unchanged status aligns with market expectations, reflecting a cautious approach in monetary policy amid improving economic indicators such as exports and domestic consumption [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) continues to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery [6][7]. - The PBOC is utilizing various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratios and reverse repos, to maintain liquidity and align social financing growth with economic growth targets [7][9]. Group 3: Structural Monetary Policy Tools - There is an emphasis on optimizing and expanding structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors such as technology innovation and small and micro enterprises [9][10]. - The PBOC is considering further reductions in re-lending rates to enhance the effectiveness of structural tools in promoting economic upgrades and improving livelihoods [9][10].

2026.03. 19 本文字数：1296，阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 从宏观经济看，1-2月经济数据好于预期，为政策提供观察窗口；且全年经济增长目标设定为4.5%至 5%，短期内实施降息的紧迫性有所降低。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，年初以来LPR保持"按 兵不动"，根本原因是年初出口大幅超预期，1-2月国内消费、投资增速改善，以及包括高技术制造业 在内的新质生产力领域较快发展等，显示出开年宏观经济起步有力，稳增长需求不高，加之1月央行 已先行推出一揽子结构性货币政策，这些都意味着当前货币政策处于观察期。因此，一季度政策利率 和LPR均保持稳定。 从外部环境看，董希淼称，中东地缘冲突升级导致国际油价大幅上涨，或将带来输入性通胀压力；同 时美联储继续按兵不动，降息进程放缓，外部利率环境制约使得LPR下降面临掣肘。 从银行自身看，商业银行净息差持续处于历史低位。在利率水平方面，当前实体经济融资成本已处于 低位。央行数据显示，2月新发放企业贷款利率约3.1%，比上年同期低约20个基点；个人住房新发 放贷款加权平均利率约3.1%，比上年同期低约10个基点。 新一期LPR出炉，两个期限品种的LPR ...

Group 1 - The age limit for professional road passenger and freight transport drivers, as well as personnel engaged in the transportation of dangerous goods, has been raised from 60 to 63 years old [1] - The conditions for the cancellation of professional qualification certificates have been adjusted simultaneously [1] Group 2 - A-share market has seen the emergence of its eighth stock priced over 1,000 yuan, with Yuanjie Technology surpassing Hanwuji [2] - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has been released [2] - Social security funds have newly invested in 11 heavily weighted stocks, with a list of institutional increases now available [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices closed with mixed results, with small and medium-cap stocks outperforming large-cap blue chips. The CSI 1000 was the strongest among the four broad-based indices. After the A-share market recorded a good start, it is expected to continue the upward trend due to factors such as continuous trade disturbances overseas weakening market confidence in US dollar assets, accelerated movement of residents' deposits providing liquidity support for the stock market, high consumer spending during the Spring Festival showing the effectiveness of domestic demand expansion policies, the approaching Two Sessions, and the continuous strengthening of the RMB [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Disk - IF main contract (2603) was at 4712.2, down 18.8; IF second main contract (2606) was at 4671.2, down 24.6. IH main contract (2603) was at 3034.6, down 23.4; IH second main contract (2606) was at 3031.0, down 23.0. IC main contract (2603) was at 8537.4, up 19.2; IC second main contract (2606) was at 8427.4, up 2.0. IM main contract (2603) was at 8443.4, up 41.6; IM second main contract (2606) was at 8260.4, up 18.6 [2] - IF - IH current contract spread was 1677.6, up 4.4; IC - IF current contract spread was 3825.2, up 27.6. IM - IC current contract spread was -94.0, up 29.4; IC - IH current contract spread was 5502.8, up 32.0 [2] - IF quarterly - current was -41.0, up 57.0; IF next - current was -97.4, up 61.4. IH quarterly - current was -3.6, up 1.2; IH next - current was -37.4, up 1.6. IC quarterly - current was -110.0, down 18.4; IC next - current was -239.2, down 27.2. IM quarterly - current was -183.0, down 24.8; IM next - current was -369.6, down 32.4 [2] 3.2 Futures Position - IF top 20 net position was -35,984.00, up 3756.0; IH top 20 net position was -21,592.00, up 784.0. IC top 20 net position was -42,437.00, up 634.0; IM top 20 net position was -59,382.00, up 3060.0 [2] 3.3 Spot Price - CSI 300 was at 4726.87, down 9.0; IF main contract basis was -14.7, down 10.2. SSE 50 was at 3035.1, down 19.9; IH main contract basis was -0.5, down 3.8. CSI 500 was at 8557.2, up 29.7; IC main contract basis was -19.8, down 21.3. CSI 1000 was at 8490.6, up 64.3; IM main contract basis was -47.2, down 26.5 [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - A-share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) was 25,566.39, up 757.47; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 26,466.26, up 238.70. Northbound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 3195.37, up 23.76; reverse repurchase (maturity volume, operation volume, billion yuan) was -4000.0, up 3205.0 [2] - Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) were -177.82 and -472.19. The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) was 45.30, down 23.01; Shibor (daily, %) was 1.368, down 0.010 [2] - IO at - the - money call option closing price (2603) was 44.40, down 12.40; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) was 12.22, down 0.91. IO at - the - money put option closing price (2603) was 79.60, up 4.00; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) was 12.77, down 0.36 [2] - CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility (%) was 13.82, up 0.02; trading volume PCR (%) was 55.95, down 2.84. Position PCR (%) was 65.69, up 0.79 [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares were at 5.30, down 1.70; technical aspect was at 4.50, down 2.30. Capital aspect was at 6.10, down 1.10 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In January, the increment of social financing scale was 7.22 trillion yuan, 166.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 4.71 trillion yuan, with the end - of - month balance at 276.62 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.1%. At the end of January, M2 increased by 9% year - on - year, and M1 increased by 4.9% year - on - year [2] - On February 24, 2026, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0%, and the 5 - year and above LPR was 3.5%. LPR has remained stable for 9 consecutive months [2] - During the 9 - day Spring Festival holiday, the number of domestic tourist trips was 596 million, an increase of 95 million compared with the 8 - day Spring Festival holiday in 2025; domestic tourism spending was 803.483 billion yuan, an increase of 126.481 billion yuan compared with the 8 - day Spring Festival holiday in 2025 [2] 3.7 Key Points to Focus On - At 21:30 on February 26, pay attention to the initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 21. At 21:30 on February 27, pay attention to the US January PPI and core PPI [3]

Group 1 - The Central Economic Work Conference scheduled for December 2025 emphasizes the integration of existing and new policies to enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [1] - Since 2025, a series of significant policies have been introduced, and their effects need further realization. Strengthening the implementation and continuous optimization of existing policies is a key focus for macroeconomic policy in 2026 [1] - There is potential for timely implementation of interest rate cuts, particularly in guiding the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) to stabilize and decrease, although the urgency for domestic rate cuts is not strong given the current low financing costs for the real economy [1] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the pressure on the macro economy may increase in the second quarter due to the negative impact of high tariffs from the U.S. on global trade and China's exports, which may prompt the implementation of counter-cyclical adjustment policies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for both 1-year and 5-year terms at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively, marking a stable period of 9 months since June 2025 [1] Monetary Policy - The current monetary policy is in an observation phase, with expectations that both policy rates and LPR quotes will likely remain stable in the short term [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The increase in domestic lead inventories restricts the price rebound [1] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 16,670 yuan/ton, down 0.18%; the closing price of the LME 3M electronic lead futures was 1,952 US dollars/ton, down 0.74% [1] - **Volume**: The trading volume of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 55,285 lots, an increase of 8,374 lots; the trading volume of LME lead futures was 3,350 lots, a decrease of 940 lots [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai lead futures was 69,712 lots, an increase of 205 lots; the open interest of LME lead futures was 169,673 lots, an increase of 925 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium and discount of Shanghai 1 lead was -50 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium and discount was -46.44 US dollars/ton, up 0.69 US dollars/ton [1] - **Import and Export Profits and Losses**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -97.18 yuan/ton, down 44.26 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of Shanghai lead continuous three - month futures was 111.95 yuan/ton, up 44.23 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 58,377 tons, an increase of 7,045 tons; the LME lead inventory was 286,325 tons, unchanged [1] - **Recycled Lead**: The price of recycled electric vehicle batteries was 9,825 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of recycled refined lead was 16,500 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -240 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton [1] 2. News - Trump's 10% "global tariff" took effect on Tuesday, and the implementation schedule of the 15% tariff has not been finalized. The US is considering imposing a new round of tariffs on about six industries, which may cover large - scale batteries [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce responded to the US tariff adjustment, saying it will decide on counter - measures against the US's original fentanyl tariff and reciprocal tariffs in due course [2] - China's LPR has remained unchanged for nine consecutive months. In February, the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR was 3% [2] 3. Lead Trend Intensity - The lead trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]

Group 1 - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) for 1-year is maintained at 3.0% and for 5-year at 3.5%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating stability in the monetary policy environment [1] - Analysts suggest that the stability in LPR is due to unchanged pricing fundamentals and the current low interest rate levels, which reduce the urgency for banks to lower LPR further [1][3] - The weighted average interest rate for corporate loans in January 2026 is approximately 3.2%, down 2.4 percentage points from the peak during the current rate cut cycle in the second half of 2018, reflecting a low financing cost environment [2] Group 2 - The current low financing costs are seen as a result of effective monetary policy, providing relief to enterprises and stimulating market vitality [2] - The economic outlook remains positive, with expectations of strong exports and growth in high-tech manufacturing, supporting the current monetary policy stance [2] - The urgency for further interest rate cuts is low, as the financing costs are already relatively low, and the pace of any adjustments will depend on the recovery of credit demand [3]