Core Viewpoint - The report from Galaxy Securities indicates that the monetary policy in the first quarter will focus on reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and structural interest rate reductions to support economic growth and liquidity [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Measures - The fiscal policy will be proactive, with monetary policy actively coordinating to support it, including a potential 50 basis points (BP) RRR cut, which could release approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity [1] - Structural interest rate cuts are seen as a more effective approach, with the central bank likely to target specific monetary policy tools to lower rates in key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and financing for small and medium-sized enterprises [1] - A comprehensive interest rate cut will depend on external and internal stability, with the potential for 1-2 rate cuts throughout the year, totaling a reduction of 10-20 BP, which would influence the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and subsequently affect loan and deposit rates [1]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约（2603） | 最新 4610.6 | 环比 数据指标 +14.8↑ IF次主力合约（2601） | 最新 4632.0 | 环比 +12.4↑ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IH主力合约（2603） | 3034.0 | +8.2↑ IH次主力合约（2601） | 3032.8 | +7.8↑ | | | IC主力合约（2603） | 7320.6 | +70.4↑ IC次主力合约（2601） | 7398.0 | +64.0↑ | | | IM主力合约（2603） | 7419.0 | +85.4↑ IM次主力合约（2601） | 7547.0 | +71.8↑ | | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1599.2 | +6.8↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 2766.0 | +59.0↑ | | 期货盘面 | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 149.0 | +9.4↑ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 4365.2 | +65.8↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 2915.0 | +68.4↑ IM-IH ...

2025年12月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：高位反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：市场信息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡反复 | 7 | | 焦煤：震荡反复 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 25 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 779.5 | 1.0 | 0.13% | | | I 2605 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 553.717 | -317 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌 ...

| 12/24-12/25 美国、欧洲、香港等地因圣诞节休市 | | | --- | --- | | 12/27 9:30 中国11月规上工业企业利润 | | | 重点关注 | | | 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ | 备注：IF:沪深300 IH:上证50 IC:中证500 IM：中证1000 IO:沪深300期权 | | | 研究员: 廖宏斌 | 电话：0595-86778969 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院， 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu 股指期货全景日报 2025/12/24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约（260 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Shanghai Zinc Industry Daily Report 2025-12-23 [2] - Researcher: Chen Sijia [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Certificate: F03118799 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0022803 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - It is expected that Shanghai zinc will be adjusted strongly. Attention should be paid to the support at 23,000 and the upper level at 23,400 [4]. - The upstream zinc ore import volume has declined, and the losses of Chinese imported zinc concentrates have widened. The domestic refinery's raw material winter reserve has started, and it prefers to purchase domestic zinc concentrates. However, the competition among refineries to purchase domestic ores has increased, and the domestic and foreign processing fees have dropped significantly. The profits of domestic refineries have shrunk, and the output is expected to decline significantly. Recently, the price of LME zinc has corrected, the Shanghai-London ratio has rebounded, and the export window may be closed again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually turning to the off-season, the real estate sector is a drag, the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while the policy support in the automotive and other fields brings some bright spots. The downstream market mainly purchases on demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has been oscillating and adjusting, the trading is dull, the spot premium is high and stable, the domestic inventory has increased slightly, the LME zinc inventory has increased significantly, and the spot premium has been significantly reduced [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - Shanghai Zinc Main Contract Closing Price: 23,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan [3]. - LME Three-Month Zinc Quote: 3,078 US dollars/ton, an increase of 5.5 US dollars [3]. - Shanghai Zinc Total Open Interest: 198,719 lots, an increase of 3,609 lots [3]. - Shanghai Zinc Top 20 Net Open Interest: 3,279 lots, an increase of 1,678 lots [3]. - Shanghai Futures Exchange Inventory: 76,017 tons, a decrease of 4,560 tons [3]. - LME Inventory: 99,250 tons, a decrease of 650 tons [3]. 2. Spot Market - Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network 0 Zinc Spot Price: 23,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan [3]. - Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market 1 Zinc Spot Price: 22,970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan [3]. - ZN Main Contract Basis: 0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan [3]. - LME Zinc Premium (0 - 3): -33.43 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.82 US dollars [3]. - Kunming 50% Zinc Concentrate Factory Price: 20,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 870 yuan [3]. - Shanghai 85% - 86% Broken Zinc Price: 16,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - WBMS: Zinc Supply and Demand Balance: -35,700 tons, a decrease of 14,700 tons [3]. - ILZSG: Zinc Supply and Demand Balance: 20,300 tons, a decrease of 27,600 tons [3]. - ILZSG: Global Zinc Mine Production: 1.0666 million tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons [3]. - Domestic Refined Zinc Production: 665,000 tons, an increase of 40,000 tons [3]. - Zinc Ore Import Volume: 340,900 tons, a decrease of 164,500 tons [3]. 4. Industry Situation - Refined Zinc Import Volume: 18,836.76 tons, a decrease of 3,840.75 tons [3]. - Refined Zinc Export Volume: 8,518.67 tons, an increase of 6,040.84 tons [3]. - Zinc Social Inventory: 1.192 million tons, an increase of 500 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - Galvanized Sheet Production: 2.34 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons [3]. - Galvanized Sheet Sales: 2.42 million tons, an increase of 140,000 tons [3]. - New Housing Starts Area: 490.6139 million square meters, an increase of 36.6239 million square meters [3]. - Housing Completion Area: 348.61 million square meters, an increase of 37.3212 million square meters [3]. - Automobile Production: 3.279 million vehicles, an increase of 52,000 vehicles [3]. - Air Conditioner Production: 14.204 million units, a decrease of 3.8908 million units [3]. 6. Option Market - Zinc At-the-Money Call Option Implied Volatility: 18.84%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points [3]. - Zinc At-the-Money Put Option Implied Volatility: 18.84%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points [3]. - Zinc At-the-Money Option 20-Day Historical Volatility: 13.07%, unchanged [3]. - Zinc At-the-Money Option 60-Day Historical Volatility: 11.67%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points [3]. 7. Industry News - China's LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months: the 5-year LPR in December is 3.5%, and the 1-year LPR is 3% [3]. - Trump's "appointed" director Milan said that if the Federal Reserve does not continue to cut interest rates next year, there will be a risk of recession. The Federal Reserve's voting members in 2025 are hawkish: there is no need to cut interest rates in the next few months, and the CPI in November was underestimated [3].

不锈钢产业日报 2025-12-23 研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格证F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 ，突破MA60关键阻力。观点参考：预计不锈钢期价偏强调整，关注MA5支撑，上方1.31位置。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | 12905 | 55 01-02月合约价差:不锈钢(日,元/吨) | -190 | 10 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:不锈钢(日,手) | -163 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 23 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价窄幅震荡，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，美联储官员就明年 | | | 降息预期继续产生较大分歧，但市场关注点在于美联储明年新上任主席能否维系美联储 | | | 货币政策独立性。国内方面，中国 LPR 连续七个月维持不变。消息面，据 Mysteel，12 | | | 月 19 日，中国铜冶炼厂代表与 Antofagasta 敲定 2026 年铜精矿长单加工费 Benchmark 为 | | | 0 美元/吨与 0 美分/磅。库存方面，LME 库存下降 2650 吨至 157750 吨；Comex 库存增 | | 铜 | 加 4247 吨至 423556 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 2803 吨至 48542 吨，BC 铜仓单维持 1053 吨。 | | | 需求方面，铜价再度走高，下游企业采购转为谨慎，成交以刚需为主。日央行加息市场 | | | 反馈是"靴子落地"，并未引起较大波澜，结合美联储降息和购债呵护，宏观维系偏暖氛 | | | 围，宽松叙事结构下铜 ...

股指期货全景日报 2025/12/22 电话：0595-86778969 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保 证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公 司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院， 且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0020723 微信号：yanjiufuwu | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2603） IH主力合约（2603） IC主力合约（2603） | 4564.8 3018.4 7123.2 | +40.0↑ IF次主力合约（2601） +16.2↑ IH次主力合约（2601） +72.4↑ IC次主力合约（2601） | 45 ...

2025年最后一次LPR报价出炉，意料之内，维持不变！ 在"提前还贷潮"的推波助澜之下，LPR在2024-2025年上旬之前更是频频下调。 房奴们每个月都在期待央行发糖，但进入5月之后，这已经是LPR连续7个月「原地踏步」了。 在全球降息潮的大背景下，国内调降预期拉满，每个月的报价日之前，关于LPR的调价猜测总是满天飞。 2、明年「两会」前，是需要提振信心，国内应该会迎来一波降息或者降准。 回顾一下十五五的高层指示，稳经济才是眼下的主线任务。 身负房贷的朋友们，保持信念，降息虽迟但一定会到。 那么问题来了，LPR不变，你还会选择提前还贷吗？ 但很遗憾，希望再一次落空。 至于什么时候LPR会再次下调，我们认为降息是早晚的事。 1、全球经济大背景下，国内降息属于随行就市； 12月11日深夜，美联储降息25BP，美国最新联邦基金利率目标区间将下调至3.75%-4%，实现年内三连降! ...

北京商报讯（记者 廖蒙）2025年进入尾声，年内最后一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）出炉。12月22日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布， 2025年12月22日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。 除上述原因，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青进一步解释道，12月以来，包括1年期银行同业存单到期收益率（AAA级）在内的主要中长端市场利率稳中有 升，商业银行在货币市场的融资成本略有上升，在商业银行净息差处于历史最低点的背景下，当前报价银行缺乏主动下调LPR报价加点的动力。 | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银行 | | | 金融科技 | ...