标普：中国房地产市场仍在探底。预计2025年全国新房销售额将下降8%至8.8-9万亿元，2026年将下降6%-7%。土地收购大幅超额，加上2025-2026年销售额低于预期，可能会对一些开发商的信用状况造成风险。购房者信心依然脆弱。因此预计政府可能会推出进一步的措施来支持需求。然而，额外的支持措施可能只会逐步推出，并且会根据具体城市的具体情况而定。五年期LPR今年仅调降10基点，不及去年全年的60基点，表明政府没有像过往一样加大放松力度。租金下降也将压低房价。随着租金持续下跌，预计投资者需求将持续低迷。潜在购房者也可能选择租房而非购房。🗒️标普此前预期今年销售额下降3%。 ...

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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Macro factors include China's September LPR remaining unchanged, potential bank deposit - rate cuts in Q4, and various overseas trade policies such as US tariff hikes and South Korea's anti - dumping duties. Supply has been rising since mid - May, inventory has increased significantly, and costs and demand have changed. Technically, the manganese silicon main contract's weekly K - line is bearish. The market is expected to be weak after the holiday, and it is recommended to reduce or empty positions [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Key Points Summary - **Macro**: China's September LPR: 5 - year above at 3.5%, 1 - year at 3%. Guangdong prepared for Typhoon "Hua Jiasha". More banks may cut deposit rates in Q4. Overseas, the US will impose high tariffs on certain products from October 1, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on steel products [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production has been rising since mid - May, inventory increased significantly. Imported manganese ore port inventory decreased by 25.3 tons, and hot metal production returned to previous levels. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is - 80 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is - 190 yuan/ton. HeSteel Group's September silicon - manganese price is 6000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical**: The manganese silicon main contract's weekly K - line is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Before the holiday, funds reduced positions, market sentiment declined, and the sector was weak. After the holiday, prices are expected to be weak. It is recommended to reduce or empty positions [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 26, the silicon - manganese futures contract's open interest decreased by 50,300 lots to 501,000 lots, and the 5 - 1 contract spread increased by 8 points to 46. Manganese silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 4,563 to 56,113, and the manganese silicon - ferrosilicon January contract spread decreased by 8 points to 220 [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 26, Inner Mongolia's silicon - manganese spot price was 5,700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 138 yuan/ton, up 56 points [23]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Industry**: Manganese silicon inventory increased rapidly, and production declined from its peak. The national 187 - enterprise sample's capacity utilization was 44.18%, down 1.50%. Daily production was 29,490 tons, down 335 tons. Five major steel products' silicon - manganese weekly demand was 122,484 tons, up 0.87%, and national production was 206,430 tons, down 1.12% [25]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the national 63 - enterprise sample's inventory was 233,800 tons, up 34,900 tons. Inner Mongolia decreased by 1,500 tons, Ningxia increased by 30,600 tons, etc. [30]. - **Upstream**: As of September 26, Tianjin Port's South32 South African semi - carbonate lump was 34.3 yuan/ton - degree, down 0.2. Ningxia and Inner Mongolia's electricity prices were flat. Imported manganese ore port inventory decreased by 25.3 tons to 427.2 tons. South African manganese ore arrivals decreased by 25%, while Australian, Gabonese, and Ghanaian arrivals increased [34][40]. - **Profit**: On September 26, the northern region's spot production cost was 5,830 yuan/ton, up 20, and the profit was - 140 yuan/ton, down 50. The southern region's cost was 6,230 yuan/ton, up 20, and the profit was - 530 yuan/ton, down 40 [44]. - **Downstream**: Daily hot metal production was 2.4236 million tons, up 13,400 tons week - on - week and 175,000 tons year - on - year. HeSteel Group's September silicon - manganese price was 6,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton [48].

来源：21世纪经济报道 董希淼（招联首席研究员、上海金融与发展实验室副主任） 9月22日，在国新办新闻发布会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，将根据宏观经济运行情况和形势变 化，综合运用多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本下降，巩固和增强经济回升 向好态势。 在5月两个期限贷款市场报价利率（LPR）各下降10个基点之后，9月1年期和5年期以上LPR分别维持在 3.0%、3.5%，连续四个月"按兵不动"，符合预期。下一阶段，在货币政策适度宽松的基调之下，我国 仍将可能实施降准降息，但大幅度降息并不现实，且降准应先于LPR下降。 数据显示，8月份新发放企业贷款加权平均利率约为3.1%，比上年同期低约40个基点；新发放个人住房 贷款加权平均利率约为3.1%，比上年同期低约25个基点。无论是新发放的企业贷款还是个人住房贷 款，利率都在去年同期较低的水平上继续下降，且都处于历史低位。在这种情况下，LPR降低并非当务 之急，必要性不足。从LPR报价机制看，近期央行多次开展公开市场操作，作为LPR定价基础的7天期 逆回购操作利率为1.40%，并未发生变化，因此LPR较难下降。因此，本月LPR维持不变，实属意 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses recent developments in China-US relations, regulatory changes in the banking sector, adjustments in housing policies, and economic measures aimed at supporting families and the real estate market, highlighting the importance of cooperation between the two largest economies and the implications of domestic policies on economic stability and growth [4][6][8][12]. Group 1: China-US Relations - On September 19, Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Trump held a phone call to discuss the current state of China-US relations, emphasizing the importance of cooperation for mutual prosperity and global stability [4]. - This call followed four rounds of economic talks, indicating a commitment to addressing outstanding issues and fostering a constructive relationship [5]. Group 2: Banking Sector Regulation - The State Council, led by Premier Li Qiang, approved the draft revision of the "Banking Supervision Law of the People's Republic of China," aimed at enhancing the regulatory framework for the banking sector [6]. - The revision is intended to address market irregularities and financial risks, ensuring the healthy development of the banking industry [6]. Group 3: Housing Policies - On September 18, new regulations for housing provident fund contributions were announced in Beijing and Shanghai, adjusting the contribution limits to support housing affordability [9][11]. - The adjustments include a maximum contribution base of 35,811 yuan in Beijing and 37,302 yuan in Shanghai, with minimums set at 2,540 yuan and 2,690 yuan respectively [9]. Group 4: Economic Measures - The introduction of a new childcare subsidy management regulation aims to streamline the application process and enhance support for families, indicating a shift towards a more structured national policy [7][8]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.00%-4.25% is seen as a response to economic concerns, potentially benefiting the Chinese market through increased foreign investment [12]. Group 5: Market Developments - Four A-share companies were flagged for financial misconduct, reflecting a stringent regulatory stance against fraud in the capital markets [13]. - The latest Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged at 3.0% for one year and 3.5% for five years, indicating stability in lending rates amidst market expectations for potential future adjustments [14].

工业和信息化部等部门联合印发《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》，明确未来两年钢铁行 业增加值年均增长目标设定在4%左右。该方案以"稳增长、防内卷"为核心，为中国钢铁行业的结构性 调整与高质量发展指明实施路径。《方案》提出，实施产能产量精准调控、推进钢铁企业分级分类管 理，严禁新增产能，引导资源要素向优势企业集聚，通过产量调控促进优胜劣汰，实现供需动态平衡。 宏观要闻 "十四五"以来我国外汇储备始终稳定在3万亿美元以上 中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年9月20日，贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为：1年 期LPR为3.00%，5年期以上LPR为3.50%，均较上月保持不变。LPR自今年5月下调之后，已有4个月按 兵不动。 钢铁行业未来两年目标确定 9月LPR继续按兵不动 ...

Report Core View - The report provides a forward - looking analysis of key events and data releases in the coming week and their potential impact on the futures market, including economic data from China, the United States, and the Eurozone [2][3][4] Key Points by Date September 22 - China's central bank will announce the September 2025 LPR at 09:00, with the 1 - year LPR expected to be 3.00% and the 5 - year - plus LPR expected to be 3.50%, both unchanged from the previous values, having a neutral impact on futures [3] - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the "14th Five - Year Plan" achievements in the financial industry at 15:00, with capital market development likely to be a core topic [4] - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the preliminary value of the Eurozone's September consumer confidence index at 22:00, expected to be - 15.4, up from - 15.5 [5] September 23 - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of the Eurozone's September SPGI manufacturing PMI at 16:00, expected to be 51, up from 50.7, which may help futures prices of non - ferrous metals and crude oil rise [8] - S&P Global will announce the preliminary value of the US September SPGI manufacturing PMI at 21:45, expected to be 53.5, up from 53, which may also help futures prices of non - ferrous metals and crude oil rise [9] September 24 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the mid - September market prices of important production materials at 9:30, covering 9 categories and 50 products [10] - The US Department of Commerce will announce August new home sales at 22:00, with the seasonally - adjusted annualized total expected to be 653,000, up from 652,000, which may help non - ferrous metal futures prices rise and suppress gold and silver futures prices [11] - The EIA will announce the change in US crude oil inventories for the week ending September 19 at 22:30. A continued decline may help crude oil and related commodity futures prices rise [12] - The US Conference Board will announce the September consumer confidence index at 22:00, expected to be 102.9, down from 103.3, which may suppress non - ferrous metals and crude oil futures prices and help gold and silver futures prices rise [13] September 25 - The central bank will conduct an incremental roll - over of the maturing MLF, with 30 billion yuan of MLF maturing on this day [14] - The Gfk Institute will announce Germany's October consumer confidence index at 14:00, expected to be - 23.3, up from - 23.6 [15] - The US Department of Commerce will announce the final value of the Q2 2025 GDP at 20:30, with the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP expected to be 3.3% [16] - The US Department of Commerce will announce the preliminary monthly rate of August durable goods orders at 20:30, expected to be - 0.5%, up from - 2.8%, which may help non - ferrous metal futures prices rise and suppress gold and silver futures prices [17] - The US Department of Labor will announce the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 at 20:30, expected to be 225,000, down from 231,000, which may help industrial product futures prices rise and suppress gold and silver futures prices [18] - The National Association of Realtors will announce the annualized total of August existing home sales at 22:00, expected to be 3.98 million, down from 4.01 million [19] September 26 - The US Department of Commerce will announce the August PCE price index at 20:30. If the annual and monthly rates of the PCE price index are slightly higher than the previous values and the core PCE price index shows specific changes, the Fed may cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and December [20] - The US Department of Commerce will announce August personal consumption expenditures at 20:30, with the monthly rate expected to be 0.4%, down from 0.5%, which may suppress non - ferrous metals and crude oil futures prices and help gold and silver futures prices rise [21] September 27 - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size in August at 09:30, with the previous value (July) showing a 1.5% year - on - year decline and a 1.7% cumulative decline from January to July [22]

不过，LPR变动仍然受到多方面因素的影响和制约。董希淼表示，首先是银行息差方面的约束。如果 LPR下降过快，银行息差加快收窄，不利于保持银行体系稳健性和服务实体经济持续性。其次是存款利 率方面的约束。今年存款利率多次下调之后，大型商业银行存款挂牌利率创新低，未来降低存款利率的 空间已经不大。而且，当前新发放贷款利率在上年同期较低的水平上继续下降，已经处于历史低位。 董希淼预计，央行将坚持"以我为主"，兼顾内外平衡，继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，降准降息都还有 较大可能和一定空间，但降准会优于降息。如果政策利率和存款利率继续降低，金融机构资金成本持续 下行，LPR仍有下降的可能。未来一段时间，LPR的变动需兼顾短期与长期、内部与外部等因素，努力 在稳增长、稳息差、稳外贸等多重目标之间保持动态平衡。 展望未来，业内专家认为，随着美联储开启新一轮降息，我国货币政策操作空间进一步拓宽。招联首席 研究员董希淼表示，近期美联储开启2024年12月以来的首次降息，为全球市场提供更宽松的流动性环 境。而且，美联储年底前还可能继续降息。在这种趋势下，中美利差压力和人民币汇率压力将有所减 轻，外部约束减弱，将为中国货币政策带来更为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of monetary easing measures, including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, to support economic growth amid a backdrop of stable M2 and social financing growth rates. Group 1: Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China has continuously lowered the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, resulting in a supportive monetary policy environment [1] - M2 and social financing growth rates have maintained a year-on-year increase of 8%-9%, indicating a broad monetary stance [1] - By the end of 2024, the ratios of social financing to GDP, M2 to GDP, and loans to GDP are projected to be 303%, 232%, and 190%, respectively, reflecting significant increases from 2017 [1] Group 2: Interest Rates and Lending - In May, the People's Bank of China introduced a comprehensive policy package that included further cuts to reserve requirements and interest rates [1] - As of August, the growth rates for social financing and M2 were both at 8.8%, notably higher than the nominal GDP growth rate during the same period [1] - Since 2020, the central bank has reduced policy rates nine times, leading to a decline in the 1-year and 5-year LPR by 115 and 130 basis points, respectively [1] Group 3: Loan Rates - In August, the weighted average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.1%, down about 40 basis points from the previous year [1] - The weighted average interest rate for newly issued personal housing loans was also around 3.1%, which is 25 basis points lower than the same period last year [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices rose significantly this week, with the ChiNext Index up over 5% and the STAR 50 up over 10%. The four stock index futures also increased collectively, and the performance of large and small-cap stocks was relatively balanced. The market trading activity continued to rise compared to last week, with the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets remaining at the two-trillion level, and the trading amount of northbound funds exceeding one trillion for five consecutive weeks [5][97]. - Domestically, in terms of economic fundamentals, the growth rates of industrial added value, fixed asset investment, and social retail sales of above-scale industries in July all declined compared to the previous values, and the real estate market also showed an accelerated decline. Previously announced inflation data improved month-on-month under the combined effect of seasonal effects and industrial policies. In terms of financial data, the M2 - M1 gap continued to narrow in July, indicating that residents are gradually shifting from excess savings to consumption. At the individual stock level, the net profit growth rate of all A-shares has increased compared to the first quarter, and the profit performance of the four stock index futures has been differentiated. In terms of the capital side, northbound funds remained active in trading, and the margin trading balance continued to climb [97]. - Overall, this week was a macro data vacuum period in China, and the market focused on the disclosure of the semi-annual reports of listed companies. In the current low-interest rate environment, the movement of residents' deposits has injected liquidity into the market, and the previous policies for the entry of medium and long-term funds have also promoted the optimization of the A-share investment structure. In addition, due to the relatively high valuation of the US stock market, A-shares with more reasonable valuations have continuously attracted foreign capital inflows. Finally, due to the poor performance of previous economic data, the market still expects policy intensification. The strategy is to recommend light - position buying on dips [97]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review | Futures/Spot | Contract/Index Name | Weekly Change (%) | Friday Change (%) | Closing Price | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Futures | IF2509 | 4.39 | 2.72 | 4394.0 | | | IH2509 | 3.36 | 2.80 | 2942.0 | | | IC2509 | 4.28 | 2.50 | 6810.4 | | | IM2509 | 3.70 | 2.25 | 7348.6 | | Spot | CSI 300 | 4.18 | 2.10 | 4378.00 | | | SSE 50 | 3.38 | 2.32 | 2928.61 | | | CSI 500 | 3.87 | 1.77 | 6822.85 | | | CSI 1000 | 3.45 | 1.51 | 7362.94 | [8] 3.2 News Overview - Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies, stimulating consumption potential, expanding effective investment, and stabilizing the real estate market, which is positive for the market [11]. - As of August 18, the margin trading balance exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan, with a six - consecutive - day increase and a cumulative increase of over 110 billion yuan since August, which is positive for the market [11]. - On August 20, 2025, the 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, remaining unchanged from the previous values, which is neutral for the market [11]. 3.3 Weekly Market Data - **Domestic Major Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 3.49% this week, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.57%, the STAR 50 rose 13.31%, the SME 100 rose 4.64%, and the ChiNext Index rose 5.85% [14]. - **External Major Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 fell 1.23%, the UK FTSE 100 rose 1.86%, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.27%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 1.72% [15]. - **Industry Sector Performance**: All industry sectors rose, with the communication, electronics, and comprehensive sectors rising significantly. However, the main funds in the industry were generally in net outflows, with large net outflows in the computer, machinery, and power equipment sectors [19][23]. - **Other Data**: SHIBOR short - term interest rates first rose and then fell, with low capital prices. This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 7.523 billion yuan in the secondary market, the market value of restricted shares lifted was 92.504 billion yuan, and the total trading amount of northbound funds was 1.345191 trillion yuan. The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM strengthened [27][30][38]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Strategy - The market is expected to continue to be affected by factors such as the disclosure of semi - annual reports, economic fundamentals, and policy expectations. The strategy is to recommend light - position buying on dips [97].