Core Viewpoint - The new rare earth technology control measures introduced by China are not specifically aimed at Pakistan's transfer of rare earths to the U.S., but rather pose a significant risk to companies like ASML, which manufactures chip-making machinery [1][6][10]. Group 1: Impact on ASML and Chip Manufacturing - ASML is preparing for potential delays in product shipments due to China's new restrictions, which could affect production [1][6]. - The new regulations require foreign companies to apply for approval to sell products containing Chinese rare earth elements, creating operational challenges for ASML and similar firms [6][14]. - The reliance on rare earth elements in chip manufacturing machinery highlights the critical role these materials play in the global supply chain [4][10]. Group 2: Price and Supply Chain Implications - The immediate effect of China's measures is expected to be an increase in the price of rare earth magnets, which are essential in chip production [12][14]. - The uncertainty surrounding supply chains has led to confusion among Western companies, as they assess which products contain Chinese rare earths and how to adapt to the new regulations [14][16]. - Major chip manufacturers like Intel, TSMC, and Samsung depend on ASML's products, indicating that disruptions in the supply of rare earths could lead to significant production fluctuations [16][18]. Group 3: Western Response and Future Outlook - Western companies, including ASML, are likely to seek alternative solutions or lobby their governments for negotiations with China to mitigate the impact of these restrictions [12][18]. - The long-term inability of Western nations to establish a self-sufficient rare earth supply chain poses a significant challenge, as they lack the necessary extraction and processing capabilities [21][25]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and trade disputes have led to a situation where Western companies are caught between government policies and their operational needs, creating a complex dynamic in the industry [29][34].

一、无声的惊雷：一纸公告重塑全球稀土棋局 10月9日中国商务部发布的第六十二号公告，像一记精准的外交点穴，瞬间冻结了国际稀土市场的所有投机幻想。没有缓冲期，不设过渡窗口，这份即时生 效的技术管制令，彻底颠覆了西方"中国反应迟缓"的刻板印象。当巴基斯坦首批稀土样品还在印度洋上驶向美国时，中方已用行动宣告：稀土战争的规则， 必须由技术定义者书写。 巴基斯坦与美国合作的算盘看似精明——借矿产吸引投资，在瓜达尔港附近建设帕斯尼专用港，试图在大国博弈中左右逢源。但这份急切的地缘政治投名 状，恰恰暴露了其对稀土产业认知的肤浅。稀土的真正命门从来不是矿石储量，而是从提纯到磁材的全套技术生态。中国此次直指技术出口的管控，等于在 对手起跑前收回了赛道。 二、技术铁幕：为何巴基斯坦的5亿美元订单注定搁浅 此次技术管制绝非临时起意，而是步步为营的战略闭环。从2023年对镓、锗的出口许可管理，到2024年对中重稀土的管控，再到如今直指技术命门，中国用 三年时间完成了从资源防守到技术进攻的升级。这种递进式策略，既避免了对全球市场的突然冲击，又给足了国际社会适应期——可惜某些国家误将克制当 作软弱。 反观美国，从奥巴马到拜登的三届政府均 ...