税收增收
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牛市的税收效应
Huachuang Securities· 2025-11-17 09:41
Group 1: Tax Revenue Contributions from Bull Market - The bull market is expected to contribute approximately 310 billion yuan in incremental tax revenue this year, equivalent to 2% of the 2024 tax revenue[1] - Securities industry tax revenue growth is estimated at around 270 billion yuan[2] - Personal capital market-related tax revenue growth is projected to be about 40 billion yuan[3] Group 2: Securities Industry Tax Revenue Growth - The securities industry's tax revenue is projected to reach approximately 490 billion yuan in 2024, based on 2023 figures and profit growth estimates[4] - By 2025, the securities industry tax revenue is expected to increase to about 760 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 270 billion yuan[5] - Historical data shows a strong correlation between bull markets and significant tax revenue increases in the securities sector[6] Group 3: Personal Capital Market-Related Tax Revenue Growth - The personal income tax from capital market components (dividends, restricted stock transfers, and equity transfers) is expected to account for about 20% of total personal income tax[7] - The estimated personal capital market-related tax revenue for 2024 is around 290 billion yuan, with a projected increase to approximately 330 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of about 40 billion yuan[8] - Historical trends indicate that personal income tax often grows faster than overall economic and fiscal revenues during bull markets[9] Group 4: Other Tax Revenue Sources - The bull market is also expected to drive significant tax revenue growth from the insurance industry and non-financial corporate investment income[10] - In the insurance sector, the total investment income of the top five insurers increased by 35.64% year-on-year, contributing to a 13.3% increase in insurance tax revenue[11] - Non-financial corporate investment income historically shows a year-on-year growth of about 20% during bull markets, contributing significantly to corporate income tax revenue[12]