Economic Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11, 2025, highlighted the normalization of external challenges and emphasized the "strong supply and weak demand" contradiction domestically[1] - The conference identified three main issues: external challenges, supply-demand imbalance, and risk hazards, indicating a worsening external environment due to trade frictions[1] Economic Goals and Macro Policies - The focus shifted from "preventing and resolving risks" to "better coordinating domestic economic work and international trade struggles," indicating a more proactive approach to external challenges[1] - Emphasis on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, moving away from merely stabilizing asset prices[1] - The goal is to achieve qualitative improvements and reasonable quantitative growth, enhancing the sense of gain for residents and enterprises[1] Fiscal Policy - Fiscal policy is to "maintain necessary" rather than "increase intensity," indicating a lower necessity for further increases in deficit and special bonds[1] - The emphasis on addressing local fiscal difficulties has increased, with a focus on ensuring basic livelihood, wages, and operations[1] - The conference proposed reforms to the local tax system to alleviate fiscal pressures, including adjustments to consumption tax and shared tax distribution[2] Monetary Policy - The goal of "price recovery" has been explicitly included as a monetary policy target, indicating a significant increase in the importance of price stability[3] - The terminology for interest rate cuts has shifted from "timely" to "flexible and efficient," suggesting a more responsive monetary policy approach[3] - There is a renewed focus on "expanding domestic demand," with monetary policy aimed at supporting consumption and innovation[3] Investment and Consumption - The conference aims to "stop the decline in investment," with specific measures to increase central budget investment and optimize the use of local government bonds[3] - A systematic approach to increasing residents' income has been proposed, moving from short-term subsidies to a comprehensive income increase plan[3] - The focus on consumption remains paramount, with a shift from merely increasing funding to improving efficiency in consumption policies[3] Real Estate Market - The strategy has shifted from "stopping the decline" to "stabilizing" the real estate market, emphasizing inventory reduction and supply optimization[4] - The conference proposed reforms to the housing provident fund system to support cross-city home purchases and improve access to funds[4] Capital Market - The focus has moved from stabilizing the stock market to ensuring the normal operation of market mechanisms and building confidence[4] - Emphasis on deepening capital market reforms and innovating financial services to better support new productive forces[4] Price and Competition - Price pressures are expected to decrease, with a lower emphasis on price targets compared to previous years[4] - The approach to "anti-involution" has shifted from "comprehensive rectification" to "in-depth rectification," indicating a focus on regulating competition and industry structure[4]