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黑色金属数据日报-20250606
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 07:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Steel**: The risk appetite in the capital market has slightly improved, but the industrial contradictions have little impact. The market may enter a stage of intensified divergence, and there may be a band convergence of the basis. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for futures - spot operations, and pay attention to the pressure range after basis repair [4]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The third round of coke price cuts of 70 - 75 yuan is expected to be implemented soon. The market is mainly affected by macro uncertainties and industrial demand pressure. The short - term rebound is mainly due to short - covering, and the medium - term strategy is to short at high levels, with the short - term upper pressure around the coking coal warehouse receipt cost of 800 yuan [4]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the price elasticity at low levels increases. Both silicon iron and manganese silicon prices are expected to be under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand changes and cost decline [5]. - **Iron Ore**: The rebound is mainly due to short - covering, and the downward trend remains unchanged. Iron ore shipments are expected to rise, and the port inventory may shift from slight destocking to slight accumulation. The market needs to pay attention to the impact of steel mill profits on iron - water production and the stability of steel exports [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 5, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2951 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan (0.34%); HC2601 closed at 3075 yuan/ton, unchanged; I2601 closed at 665 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan (0.15%); J2601 closed at 1358.5 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan (0.44%); JM2601 closed at 773 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan (1.18%). For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2959 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan (0.14%); HC2510 closed at 3077 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan (- 0.19%); I2509 closed at 701 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan (- 0.14%); J2509 closed at 1342 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan (0.56%); JM2509 closed at 757 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan (1.68%) [2]. - **Spreads**: The spreads between near - month and far - month contracts, such as RB2510 - 2601, HC2510 - 2601, etc., also had corresponding changes. The spreads, ratios, and profits of the main contracts, like the coil - to - rebar spread, rebar - to - ore ratio, etc., also showed different trends [2]. Spot Market - **Prices and Changes**: On June 5, the prices of various steel products in different regions, such as Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, etc., had different degrees of decline. The prices of hot - rolled coils also decreased, and the prices of coking coal and coke had mixed trends. For example, Shanghai rebar was 3090 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3170 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of coking coal at Ganqimao Port decreased, and the price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port remained unchanged [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of HC, RB, I, J, and JM main contracts also changed. For example, the HC main contract basis was 93 yuan/ton on June 5, down 30 yuan; the RB main contract basis was 131 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan [2].