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Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices returned to weakness after touching the 20 - day moving average on Thursday, with both spot volume and price falling. After basis repair, prices may face pressure again if there is no better bullish story in the industry. For hot - rolled coils and rebar, pay attention to the 20 - day moving average on the disk as the resistance level and the re - entry hedging point range [5]. - The Sino - US talks disturbed market sentiment. Coking coal spot continued to weaken, with many auctions failing and the cost of coking coal decreasing. The futures market of coking coal and coke weakened due to the less - than - expected Sino - US negotiation results. Macro uncertainties are large, and the market has no stable expectation. In the industry, the demand for five major steel products is seasonally weakening, and the coking coal supply may increase in the future [6]. - For steel, focus on short - side trading. Prefer hot - rolled coils with better liquidity for hedging. Buy put options on steel at high prices [8]. - For coking coal and coke, based on the judgment that the medium - to - long - term bottom of coking coal has not been found, continue to take a bearish view on the single - side trading [9]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, their fundamentals are stable and follow the steel market. The prices of both are expected to be under pressure, and attention should be paid to subsequent steel tenders [9]. - For iron ore, the trend remains unchanged, and a high - short strategy should be maintained. The decline in the output of five major steel products did not lead to inventory accumulation. Iron ore shipments are expected to rise to a high level, and the market should consider the changes in inventory after the peak season and the stability of steel exports [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: - On June 12, for far - month contracts, RB2601 closed at 2962 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 0.67%); HC2601 at 3079 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 0.71%); I2601 at 671 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan (0.07%); J2601 at 1348 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan (- 1.46%); JM2601 at 779 yuan/ton, down 15.5 yuan (- 1.95%). - For near - month contracts, RB2510 closed at 2968 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan (- 0.70%); HC2510 at 3080 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan (- 0.87%); I2509 at 704 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan (- 0.21%); J2509 at 1328.5 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan (- 1.77%); JM2509 at 766.5 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan (- 2.79%) [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: - On June 12, the spread between RB2510 and RB2601 was 6 yuan/ton, unchanged; between HC2510 and HC2601 was 1 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The coil - to - rebar spread was 112 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the rebar - to - iron ore ratio was 4.22, down 0.01; the coal - to - coke ratio was 1.73, unchanged; the rebar disk profit was 184.4 yuan/ton, down 4.3 yuan; the coking disk profit was 309.06 yuan/ton, down 4.89 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Steel: On June 12, Shanghai rebar was 3070 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; Tianjin rebar was 3220 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou rebar was 3230 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan billet was 2890 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3160 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Hangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3240 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangzhou hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal prices continued to weaken, with many auctions failing. The price index of coking coal was 951.7, down 6.1. Port - traded quasi - first - class coke was quoted at 1180 yuan/ton. For Mongolian coal, prices were under pressure, with downstream buyers having strong price - cutting intentions [6]. Different Product Analysis - **Steel**: After the basis repair, prices may face pressure again. For trading, focus on short - side trading, and prefer hot - rolled coils for hedging. Buy put options on steel at high prices [5][8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The Sino - US talks disturbed market sentiment. Spot coking coal weakened, and the futures market also showed weakness. Continue to take a bearish view on the single - side trading based on the judgment that the medium - to - long - term bottom of coking coal has not been found [6][9]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Their fundamentals are stable and follow the steel market. Prices are expected to be under pressure due to factors such as weakening demand, approaching off - season, and decreasing costs [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The trend remains unchanged, and a high - short strategy should be maintained. Iron ore shipments are expected to rise, and pay attention to inventory changes and steel export stability [9].

| | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2601 | HC2601 | -12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (元/吨) | | | | | | | | 6月5日 | 2951.00 | 3075.00 | 665. 00 | 1358. 50 | 773.00 | | | 涨跌值 | 10. 00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 6.00 | 9.00 | | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0. 34 7 | 0. 00 | 0. 15 | 0.44 | 1.18 - | | | 近月合约收盘价 (主力合约元/吨) | RB2510 | HC2510 | 12509 | J2509 | JM2509 | | | 6月5日 | 2959.00 | 3077.00 | 701.00 | 1342.00 | 757. 00 | | 期货 | 涨跌值 | 4.00 | -6. 00 | -1.00 | 7.50 | 12. 50 | | 市场 | 涨跌幅(%) | 14.0088 | -0. 19 | -0. 14 | 0 ...