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制冷设备行业2026年度投资策略:产业并购活跃,布局全球化与前沿冷却技术
Donghai Securities· 2025-12-31 01:46
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not include the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The Chinese refrigeration and air - conditioning equipment industry is at a critical turning point. The domestic household market is in a stable development stage dominated by stock replacement demand, and growth is driven by the improvement of energy - efficiency standards. The report analyzes structural growth opportunities and long - term evolution trends by benchmarking overseas leading companies [2]. - Overseas expansion should focus on local in - depth development and value extension of the industrial chain. It is a systematic project, and mergers and acquisitions are strategic choices. Chinese enterprises are moving from the initial stage of "Made in China, Sold Globally" to the new stage of globalization of "brand, technology, and management" [2]. - The commercial refrigeration field, especially the data center refrigeration track, is a short - term growth highlight. The capital expenditure of overseas HVAC giants is directed towards data center infrastructure, and there is a market for high - end refrigeration solutions due to the need to improve energy efficiency and reduce PUE [2]. - Investment suggestions: In the household refrigeration equipment field, pay attention to industry leaders such as Midea Group; in the special - purpose refrigeration equipment field, focus on companies like Invic and Shenling Environment; for upstream components, pay attention to Hanzhong Precision Machinery, Binglun Environment, and Sanhua Intelligent Control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Traditional Refrigeration Equipment Overview - **Global Refrigeration and Air - Conditioning Market**: The global refrigeration and air - conditioning market has shown steady growth. From 2018 to 2024, the global air - conditioner sales increased from 232.5 million units to 261.2 million units, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.0%. The proportion of household air - conditioners in 2024 was 73.7%, and the central air - conditioning market grew faster, with a compound annual growth rate of 4.0% from 2018 to 2024. It is predicted that by 2028, the global air - conditioner sales will reach 293.3 million units, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.9% from 2024 to 2028. Asia, North America, and Europe are important regional markets, and China is the largest single air - conditioning market [22]. - **Household Air - Conditioning**: In the 2024 cold year, China's household air - conditioner production accounted for 80.8% of the global total. Many domestic enterprises are increasing overseas layout. In the 2024 cold year, overseas production capacity increased by nearly 7 million units. In the 2025 cold year, domestic household air - conditioner exports were about 99.29 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%, with the highest export proportion to Asia [28]. - **Central Air - Conditioning and Chiller Units**: There are various types of central air - conditioning and chiller units. The export of screw and centrifugal chiller units for data centers is strong. The Asian market has a large - scale demand and is gradually recovering, while the North American market has a prominent growth rate due to its small base. The domestic market is waiting to stabilize, and leading enterprises are strengthening their competitive advantages [33]. 3.2 Household Market: Domestic Sales Review and Challenges for Leading Companies - **Price Wars and Market Competition**: After several price wars, the concentration of the domestic household refrigeration and air - conditioning market has increased. The competition has evolved from scale and price to technology, product, channel, service, and ecosystem. In 2025, the domestic sales volume of household air - conditioners increased by 8.7% year - on - year, but the growth driven by policies and climate is difficult to sustain. The long - term driving force is stock replacement and structural upgrading [35][36]. - **Energy - Efficiency Upgrade**: China has introduced multiple air - conditioner energy - efficiency standards, which have promoted the transformation from fixed - frequency to variable - frequency air - conditioners. Leading enterprises have advantages in technology and industrial layout for energy - efficiency improvement [39]. - **Challenges for Leading Companies**: In 2024 - 2025, a new round of price wars occurred. Xiaomi's entry has challenged the traditional hardware - profit model. Leading companies are facing challenges in terms of efficiency and sustainable profit growth. They are promoting digital reform, channel and logistics innovation to enhance competitiveness [40][43][44]. 3.3 Overseas Expansion of Domestic Enterprises - **Difficulties and Solutions**: There are differences in regional usage habits overseas. The US market has high access barriers, and the European market has low air - conditioner penetration and high energy - efficiency requirements. Overseas acquisitions are an important way to enter the market. Chinese enterprises are accelerating overseas production capacity construction in Southeast Asia and other regions [52][54]. - **Southeast Asian Market**: Exports to ASEAN are on an upward trend. In 2024, China's cumulative exports of white goods to ASEAN reached $14.87 billion, a year - on - year increase of 19.8%. The demand in the ASEAN market is driven by urbanization and industrialization [63]. 3.4 Overview of Overseas Representative Enterprises' Operations - **Business Models and Strategies**: Overseas HVAC representative enterprises have different business models and strategies. Johnson Controls has transformed from an equipment manufacturer to a builder of smart building ecosystems; Trane Technologies has upgraded its services and transformed its strategy; Daikin has acquired relevant enterprises to supplement its data center refrigeration business [73][82]. - **Performance of Leading Enterprises**: Leading international enterprises such as Trane Technologies, Johnson Controls, Carrier Global, and Vertiv have shown different performance. They are all focusing on high - growth areas such as data center refrigeration [83][86][87][88]. 3.5 Commercial Market: Pay Attention to Refrigeration Demand in Data Centers - **Demand for Data Center Refrigeration**: The development of AI and other industries is expected to drive the construction of data centers. The demand for data center capacity is expected to increase at a compound average growth rate of 19% from 2023 to 2030. Reducing the energy consumption of refrigeration equipment is crucial for the green and low - carbon development of data centers [94]. - **Refrigeration Technologies**: There are various data center refrigeration technologies, including water - cooled, air - cooled, indirect evaporation cooling, "glacier" phase - change cooling, and liquid cooling. Liquid cooling has advantages in energy consumption, and the development of liquid - cooling technology is a trend [96][104]. - **Investment Suggestions**: Enterprises in different segments are recommended, including traditional HVAC enterprises such as Midea Group, precision temperature - control equipment enterprises such as Invic, special - purpose air - conditioner manufacturers such as Shenling Environment, and upstream component enterprises such as Hanzhong Precision Machinery, Binglun Environment, and Sanhua Intelligent Control [112][113].