● 本报记者 王宇露 多家私募机构近期对四季度行情做出研判，引发投资者关注。整体来看，私募机构对后市态度积极，对 行情的延续性较为乐观。不过，私募机构提示，近期市场交投活跃度有所下降，投资者需要就防御与进 攻做出平衡，并警惕部分科技股的估值压力。 丰岭资本认为，本次人工智能大潮中的很多热门公司，的确有真实业绩作为支撑，靠预期带动的估值泡 沫并不一定存在。但是，从正常的商业逻辑出发，超高的利润率以及不稳定的竞争格局，必然会带来相 关领域的竞争加剧和利润率回归。 对后市相对乐观 平衡防御与进攻 复胜资产表示，除了科技股继续狂飙之外，市场中的大部分品种基本回归区间震荡的走势。在这个阶 段，可能很多投资者对于后市会比较犹豫，复胜资产对于未来市场表现持相对乐观态度。相比于宏观经 济，复胜资产表示，更关注行业层面龙头公司的业绩趋势。目前可以看到一些受益于"反内卷"政策的行 业龙头公司已经出现了业绩边际改善的迹象，诸如工程机械、化工等。复胜资产认为，经济持续复苏的 趋势没有改变，投资者相对应对未来市场也更有信心。 尽管中长期坚定看好人工智能产业的成长空间，但丹羿投资提示，短期需警惕市场情绪推动下的波动风 险。展望未来，将重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that artificial intelligence (AI) is entering a new phase of cost reduction and efficiency improvement, creating new investment opportunities in various sectors, particularly in consumer-centric applications and computational infrastructure [1]. Group 1: AI Development and Cost Efficiency - DeepSeek has introduced a cost-effective method for running large language models, which is expected to lower operational expenses for AI service providers [2]. - The training cost of China's DeepSeek R1 model is reported to be under $6 million, significantly lower than the hundreds of millions spent by U.S. companies, while achieving comparable performance [2]. - The adoption of DeepSeek's technology by Chinese telecom companies and data centers demonstrates China's capability to create competitive AI solutions despite a lack of advanced semiconductor hardware [2]. Group 2: Competitive Advantages in Emerging Markets - China possesses significant advantages in consumer-facing AI applications due to its large digital ecosystem and cost efficiency, forming a solid competitive barrier [3]. - The demand for global computational power remains strong, with new AI application scenarios emerging, supported by favorable industrial policies [3]. - Investment focus areas include AI technology applications in embodied intelligence, consumer electronics, smart driving, and the infrastructure that supports AI applications [3]. Group 3: Market Volatility and Investment Caution - Despite the efficiency gains from DeepSeek, there are risks associated with AI investments, particularly regarding the technology's ability to enhance productivity globally [4]. - The lack of widely adopted "killer" AI applications raises concerns among investors about the return on AI investments [5]. - Companies should be evaluated based on their defensive capabilities, value-driven potential, and long-term growth records to ensure stable returns while avoiding overvaluation in uncertain market conditions [5].