第三次世界大战预期
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日记:《WW3预期和New Money的新秩序 》
付鹏的财经世界· 2025-10-31 05:53
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a new order to emerge from the current geopolitical tensions and economic shifts, highlighting the dual paths of revolution through information and data versus reconstruction through warfare [2][24]. Economic and Market Analysis - The U.S. has entered a structural change in the interest rate curve since 2022, shifting from a contango structure to using the yield spread (10Y-3M) to gauge interest rate expectations, which is closely linked to currency and gold fluctuations [2]. - The strong economic data and labor market in the U.S. have delayed interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, leading to a perception that recent market movements are not driven by monetary factors [5]. - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the tensions between Europe and Russia, is increasingly influencing asset prices, with a noted correlation between various asset classes such as Bitcoin, Nvidia, and gold [5][6]. Geopolitical Tensions - The article outlines the escalating geopolitical conflicts since 2008, with a shift from globalization to confrontation, particularly highlighted by the Russia-Ukraine war and the potential for broader conflicts involving NATO and other regions [6]. - The possibility of a third world war is discussed, with various global leaders making provocative statements that heighten tensions, particularly regarding military involvement in Ukraine [6][8]. New Money Dynamics - The emergence of "New Money" is characterized by a challenge to the traditional "Old Money" order, with events like the GameStop incident serving as a catalyst for this shift [12][14]. - The article identifies a strong correlation between assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and Nvidia, suggesting that these assets are being packaged together in investment strategies by those aligned with the New Money ethos [20][22]. - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies has surpassed $2.7 trillion, with Bitcoin alone valued at $1.4 trillion, indicating significant financial weight behind these new asset classes [22]. Conclusion on Order Reconstruction - The article concludes that the creation of a new order is still uncertain, with the potential for both information-driven and conflict-driven changes to coexist, emphasizing that significant conflict may be necessary for a new world to emerge [24].