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转债策略月报:挖掘结构性机会-20250808
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2025-08-08 00:28
Group 1: Macro Insights - In July, China's exports exceeded expectations, primarily driven by the EU, ASEAN, and other emerging markets. However, the introduction of a 40% transit tariff by the US may impact re-export trade, increasing the likelihood of a decline in exports [2] - Despite potential export declines, the recovery of European manufacturing and ongoing expansion in emerging markets are expected to provide support for exports to the EU, Africa, and the Middle East [2] Group 2: Convertible Bond Strategy - The report indicates that as equity indices continue to rise and demand for fixed income remains strong, the valuation of convertible bonds is approaching high levels, leading to some profit-taking by absolute return funds. However, if the equity market does not experience significant pullbacks, the demand for convertible bonds may still exist [3] - The report suggests a non-typical barbell strategy focusing on sectors such as military industry, AI computing, and low-altitude economy, complemented by low-volatility dividends and high-cost performance varieties to navigate potential market fluctuations [3] Group 3: Home Appliance Industry - The company has developed a robust global manufacturing and sales system for air conditioning over more than 30 years, characterized by a stable shareholding structure and an experienced management team. Its growth model combines high cost-performance, channel flattening, and overseas localization [5] - The company has established a competitive advantage through product innovation, channel transformation, and supply chain optimization, with a business structure that supports both household and central air conditioning [5] Group 4: Food and Beverage Sector - The company reported a revenue of 17.087 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, and a net profit of 1.287 billion yuan, up 33.2% year-on-year [7] - The food segment achieved a revenue of 5.382 billion yuan, growing 8.8% year-on-year, while the beverage segment generated 10.788 billion yuan, a 7.6% increase year-on-year, with tea beverages showing particularly strong performance [8] - The company is expected to maintain steady growth, with projected net profits of 2.3 billion yuan, 2.61 billion yuan, and 2.91 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 24.3%, 13.4%, and 11.7% [8]