管线2.0时代

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基石药业-B(02616):CS2009Ⅰ期数据扎实靓眼,已启动Ⅱ期剂量拓展研究
Southwest Securities· 2025-10-21 15:26
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a potential increase in stock price relative to the market index over the next six months [12][13]. Core Insights - The company is advancing its research pipeline into the 2.0 era, with key products expected to catalyze growth soon [7]. - CS2009 has shown good safety and tolerability in Phase I clinical trials, with promising anti-tumor activity and a high disease control rate (DCR) [7]. - The company has initiated Phase II dose expansion studies for CS2009 in specific tumor types, aiming to optimize dosing regimens and gather more data for regulatory submissions [7]. - CS5001 is under investigation for both monotherapy and combination therapy in hematological and solid tumors, with ongoing global multi-center clinical trials [7]. - Strategic collaborations are expanding the international reach of the company's products, particularly for Shugli monoclonal antibody, which is expected to cover multiple indications [7]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 2.2 billion, RMB 5.1 billion, and RMB 8.6 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9]. - The projected revenue breakdown includes contributions from various products, with significant growth anticipated for Shugli monoclonal antibody starting in 2026 [8][9]. - The company expects to achieve a positive net profit of RMB 165.95 million by 2027, following substantial losses in the preceding years [2][10]. Revenue and Profitability Metrics - The report outlines a projected revenue decline of 12.21% in 2024, followed by a significant recovery with growth rates of 131.82% and 68.63% in 2026 and 2027 respectively [2][9]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to turn positive by 2027, indicating a turnaround in profitability [2][9]. - The net asset return rate (ROE) is projected to improve significantly, reaching 304.32% by 2027 after a period of negative returns [2][10].