粕类价格走势
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粕类日报:供应有所好转,价格整体回落-20260108
Yin He Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 12:51
Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Meal Daily Report" dated January 8, 2026, with the theme "Supply Improves, Prices Fall Overall" [1] Group 2: Researcher Information - The researcher is Chen Jiezheng, with a futures practice certificate number F3045719 and an investment consulting certificate number Z0015458. Contact email: chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.com.cn [2] Group 3: Market Quotes Futures and Spot Basis - Bean meal: Contract 01 closed at 3146, down 25; Contract 05 closed at 2782, down 29; Contract 09 closed at 2875, down 13. Spot basis in Tianjin, Dongguan, Zhangjiagang, and Rizhao increased by 10 respectively [3] - Rapeseed meal: Contract 01 closed at 2590, down 87; Contract 05 closed at 2358, down 61; Contract 09 closed at 2419, down 46. Spot basis in Nantong, Guangdong, and Guangxi increased by 51, 31, and 31 respectively [3] Monthly Spreads - Bean meal: 15 - spread increased by 4 to 364; 59 - spread decreased by 16 to -93; 91 - spread increased by 12 to -271 [3] - Rapeseed meal: 15 - spread decreased by 26 to 232; 59 - spread decreased by 15 to -61; 91 - spread increased by 41 to -171 [3] Cross - variety Futures Spreads - Bean - rapeseed 01 spread was 556, up from 494; Bean - rapeseed 09 spread was 456, up from 423. Oil - meal ratio 01 was 2.631, up from 2.583 [3] Spot Spreads - Bean meal - rapeseed meal spread decreased by 9 to 592; Bean meal - sunflower meal spread decreased by 19 to 822; Rapeseed meal - sunflower meal spread decreased by 30 to 240 [3] Group 4: Market Review - The US soybean market showed a decline. Although good exports provided some support, overall supply - demand was loose, putting pressure on prices. The domestic bean meal market declined due to market information, with cost support and concerns about future supply. Rapeseed meal also declined significantly, affected by bean meal and market information. The bean - rapeseed meal spread rose, and the monthly spreads of both bean meal and rapeseed meal declined [3] Group 5: Fundamental Analysis International Market - The US soybean market has a loose supply - demand situation, with limited price support from the balance sheet. Future prices will be affected by exports and crushing. In South America, Brazil's new - crop sowing progress is accelerating but still below the historical average. Most institutions expect a bumper harvest, and exports are likely to increase, but it depends on actual yields. Brazil's old - crop exports and crushing are good, but future crushing may be limited. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is large, and exports and crushing are increasing, but the export growth space may be limited [4] Domestic Market - The domestic spot market has a loose supply - demand situation. Oil mills' operating rates are high, supply is sufficient, and提货量 is increasing, with high inventory. Market transactions have decreased recently, and there is uncertainty about future supply. As of January 2, the actual soybean crushing volume was 1.7533 million tons, the operating rate was 48.23%, soybean inventory was 7.1025 million tons, up 8.53% from last week and 19.48% year - on - year. Bean meal inventory was 1.1702 million tons, up 0.22% from last week and 71.18% year - on - year. Rapeseed meal demand is weakening, oil mill operations have almost stopped, rapeseed supply is low, and there is still supply pressure. As of January 2, the rapeseed inventory of coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, both unchanged from last week [5] Group 6: Logic Analysis - The US soybean market may face pressure if supply remains high. Brazil's short - term weather is good, and the harvest is expected to progress smoothly, with potential bumper - harvest pressure. The international soybean market is still loose, and prices may face pressure. South American near - term supply may tighten, and market transactions have decreased, supporting prices. Domestic soybean arrivals will gradually decrease, but supply is uncertain. In the long - term, supply is loose, and prices face pressure. Rapeseed meal is mainly affected by macro factors, with average demand and significant supply - side changes. The bean - rapeseed meal spread is expected to narrow. The monthly spreads of bean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to be under pressure [6] Group 7: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short - selling is recommended - Arbitrage: Narrow the MRM spread - Options: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [7] Group 8: Soybean Crushing Profit - The report provides the crushing profit data of Brazilian soybeans from February to July 2026, including CNF, CBOT, contract, exchange rate, bean meal price, soybean oil price, and changes in crushing profit [8]