研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2026 年 1 月 8 日 【粕类日报】供应有所好转 价格整体回落 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | 2026/1/8 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 涨 跌 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | -25 豆粕 | 0 1 | 3146 | 天津 | 380 | 370 | 1 0 | | -29 | 0 5 | 2782 | 东莞 | 340 | 330 | 1 0 | | -13 | 0 9 | 2875 | 张家港 | 300 | 290 | 1 0 | | | | | 日照 | 310 | 300 | 1 0 | | -87 菜粕 | 0 1 | 2590 | 南通 | 132 | 8 1 | 5 1 | | -61 | 0 5 | ...

上下震荡，大豆缺乏指引 2025年12月3日 弘业期货金融研究院 陈春雷 从业资格证号：F3032143 投资咨询证号：Z0014352 豆一2601合约延续上下震荡走势。现货价格稳定，富锦大豆市场价在4060元/吨附近。豆一基差震荡走强，盘面升 水维持。 豆粕主力面临换月2605合约，处于震荡走势。豆粕现货价格小涨，张家港43粕由2980元/吨涨至3020元/吨附近。基 差震荡走强，盘面升水收窄。 （1）国产大豆销售较快。新季国产大豆微减产至2090万吨，且华北等地品质分化，东北高蛋白豆受欢迎。据钢联： 截至11月28日，黑龙江大豆余粮占比落至74%；安徽大豆余粮占比落至73%；河南大豆余粮占比落至76%；山东大豆余粮 占比落至81%。近期国储大豆拍卖暂停。 （2）油厂大豆到港较高，港口大豆库存充足。10月国内进口大豆948万吨，环比下降26%，同比增加17.2%。中美贸 易协议下进口美豆将恢复常态。中美已相互降税，但保留10%基本关税，因此美豆进口成本仍高于南美大豆。国内大豆 供应充足。据钢联：截至11月28日，油厂大豆到港量为240.5万吨，环比再增；港口大豆库存为957.6万吨，环比回升。 （3）美豆 ...

Core Insights - The global oilseed market is experiencing a mild rebound supported by demand and rising soybean oil prices, but it remains in a consolidation phase due to a lack of sustained momentum [1] - The focus is on the implementation of the US-China trade agreement and the clarification of US biofuel policies, with recent communications between US and Chinese leaders leading to increased purchasing activity [1][2] - Despite confirmed soybean sales to China, the US soybean prices remain unattractive compared to Brazilian supplies, necessitating a price adjustment to attract commercial buyers [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of late November, the US Department of Agriculture confirmed soybean sales to China reached 3.12 million tons, but private estimates suggest China may need to purchase between 3.5 million to 4 million tons in December to meet targets [1] - The Chicago soybean futures are currently priced above $11 per bushel, with expectations that the price gap between US and Brazilian soybeans will widen as Brazilian harvest approaches [2] - The USDA has lowered the US soybean export target to 445 million bushels (approximately 12.1 million tons), marking the lowest level in 12 years, reflecting concerns over competitiveness [3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Quality Concerns - China recently rejected a shipment of 69,000 tons of Brazilian soybeans due to pesticide contamination, raising concerns about supply quality and export processes [4] - In Argentina, soybean planting progress is at 36%, lagging behind both last year and the five-year average, indicating potential supply challenges [5] - The US is facing seasonal export pressure, with cumulative sales lagging 38.3% year-on-year, necessitating an average weekly export volume of approximately 800,000 tons to meet USDA targets [6] Group 3: Future Outlook - The global soybean market is expected to maintain a volatile consolidation pattern in the short term, with close attention on the US-China trade agreement, South American weather conditions, and the finalization of biofuel policies [7]

美国农业部（USDA）将在周五晚上21:30发布截至10月16日当周出口销售报告。据外媒调查的预期值， 预计美国2025/26市场年度大豆出口净销售为60-200万吨。 瑞达期货（002961）研报：美国大豆出口检验量为79.90万吨，较去年同期的211.98万吨显著下降，本年 度累计出口检验量同比减少44.5%，整体出口进度明显偏慢。目前市场关注焦点在于中国能否实现年底 前采购1200万吨美豆的庞大目标，但从现有条件看，面临多重阻力。中国国内大豆港口库存及油厂库存 均处于高位，压榨利润不佳，且美豆在价格上相较于巴西大豆缺乏竞争力，使其采购吸引力下降。此 外，南美生产形势总体稳定，阿根廷2025/26年度大豆播种进度为24.6%，虽较一周前提升，但仍落后于 去年同期11%。综合来看，豆二总体走势偏震荡。 11月26日，进口大豆升贴水报价：墨西哥湾(12月船期)235美分/蒲式耳，与上个交易日相比下调3美分/ 蒲式耳；美国西岸(12月船期)220美分/蒲式耳，与上个交易日相比上调1美分/蒲式耳；巴西港口(12月船 期)220美分/蒲式耳，与上个交易日相比持平。 11月27日，国内期市主力合约大面积飘红。其中，豆 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the international soybean market is currently in a relatively loose supply - demand situation. The US soybean market shows a relatively strong trend due to increased exports, but the Brazilian soybean market may face price pressure in the medium - term. Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices are under downward pressure, with soybean meal performing stronger than rapeseed meal. The recommended trading strategy is to stay on the sidelines for both single - side trading and arbitrage, and to use the strategy of selling wide straddles for options [3][4][7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review - The US soybean oil market rumors of postponed biodiesel incentive measures, leading to a decline in the US soybean oil futures price, and the US soybean futures price showed high - level fluctuations. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures prices declined, with the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly widening, and the inter - month spreads of both also declined [3]. 3.2 Fundamentals - The monthly supply - demand report was bullish, but the US soybean futures price faced downward pressure after the report. The US soybean balance sheet can support the price, and future prices will be more affected by exports and crushing. South American supply factors are increasing, with Brazil's new crop sowing progressing rapidly, and most institutions expect a bumper harvest. Argentina's old - crop soybean exports and crushing are increasing, but the export growth space may be limited. Overall, the international soybean market supply - demand is relatively loose [4]. - The domestic spot market is in a loose supply - demand situation, with increasing oil mill operating rates, sufficient supply, and increasing提货量. As of November 14, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.0776 million tons, the operating rate was 57.15%, soybean inventory was 7.4771 million tons, a decrease of 1.87% from the previous week and an increase of 40.92% year - on - year. Rapeseed meal demand is gradually weakening, and the supply pressure persists [5]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Factors The macro - economic impact on the market is expected to be limited after the short - term reaction, and the market will focus more on fundamental changes. The US government ended the shutdown, and China - US negotiations sent positive signals. China resumed the soybean import qualifications of three US companies, but the impact on the long - term market supply is uncertain [6]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the Brazilian soybean price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate. The domestic soybean meal price is under pressure in the medium - to - long - term, and soybean meal performs stronger than rapeseed meal. The inter - month spreads of soybean meal will fluctuate, and those of rapeseed meal may continue to decline [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - Single - side trading: It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines. - Options: Use the strategy of selling wide straddles [8].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "Negotiations Look Promising, Sharp Rise in US Soybeans Boosts Soybean Meal" and is dated October 28, 2025 [1] - The report is from the Financial Research Institute of Hongye Futures, written by Chen Chunlei [3] Group 2: Market Performance - The Soybean No. 1 2601 contract continued its oscillating rebound. The spot price slightly increased; the market price of Fuyin soybeans rose from 4000 yuan/ton to around 4040 yuan/ton. The soybean basis strengthened oscillatingly, and the premium on the futures decreased [4] - The Soybean Meal 01 contract stopped falling and rebounded. The spot price of soybean meal recovered; the price of Zhangjiagang 43% protein soybean meal rose from 2870 yuan/ton to around 2910 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened oscillatingly, and the futures maintained a slight premium [4] Group 3: Domestic Soybean Situation - Domestic soybean harvesting is nearing completion with quality differentiation. As of October 24, the remaining soybean ratio in Heilongjiang reached 95%, 75% in Anhui, 70% in Henan, and 75% in Shandong. Heilongjiang's soybeans are of good quality, while those in North China are of poor quality [4] - Soybean supply is abundant, and initial Sino-US talks are promising. In September, domestic soybean imports were 12.87 million tons, a 4.8% increase from the previous month and a 13.2% increase year-on-year. From January to September, cumulative imports were 86.185 million tons, a 5.3% increase year-on-year. There is a possibility of purchasing US soybeans. As of October 24, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 2.145 million tons, a slight decrease from the previous month, and the port soybean inventory was 9.731 million tons, also a slight decrease but at a recent high [4] Group 4: US Soybean Situation - US soybeans rebounded significantly. The US government is still shut down, but some agricultural services are open, and subsidy funds have been issued. The US soybean harvest may be near completion. The positive expectation of Sino-US negotiations boosted US soybeans to a nearly one-year high [5] Group 5: Oil Mill Operations - The operating rate of oil mills continued to rise, and soybean meal inventory increased again. The profit from crushing Brazilian soybeans declined due to high costs. As of October 24, the operating rate of oil mills was 65.13%, a rebound from the previous month. The soybean crushing volume was 2.3674 million tons, reaching a recent high. The soybean inventory at oil mills was 7.513 million tons, a slight decrease from the previous month. The soybean meal output was 1.87 million tons, a rebound from the previous month. The soybean meal inventory at oil mills was 1.0546 million tons, a slight increase from the previous month, and the unfulfilled contracts for soybean meal were 4.2125 million tons, a further decline from the previous month [5] Group 6: Feed Demand - Feed demand is strong. In the pig farming sector, pig prices rebounded from a low level, and the loss margin narrowed. As of October 24, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was -289.07 yuan per head, a significant loss, while the profit from self-breeding and self-fattening was -185.68 yuan per head, with the loss narrowing. In the poultry sector, egg prices declined again, and egg-laying hens were in a loss-making situation, with insufficient culling, and the inventory in September remained at a historical high. As of October 24, the inventory days of soybean meal at feed mills were 7.95 days, a slight increase from the previous month [6] Group 7: Market Outlook - Domestic soybean harvesting is nearing completion, with quality differentiation, and prices have stabilized and rebounded. Domestic soybean supply is high, and there is a possibility of importing US soybeans under the expectation of Sino-US negotiations. The operating rate of oil mills is rising, and soybean meal inventory is increasing again. Demand is strong. Soybean No. 1 will oscillate and rebound, and soybean meal will oscillate and stabilize. Enterprises are advised to make purchases on dips as needed [6]

消息面 美国大豆产区天气仍存变数支撑美豆盘面底部，但南美大豆丰产和美豆生长天气整体良好压制美豆盘面 反弹高度。国产大豆对进口大豆性价比优势支撑盘面底部，但进口大豆到港量进入高峰和国产大豆增产 预期压制盘面预期。豆一A2511：3840至3940区间震荡。 9月24日，我国进口11月船期阿根廷大豆CNF报价447美元/吨，折合华南地区到港完税成本3624元/吨， 较周一下跌138元/吨。 据欧盟委员会，截至9月21日，欧盟2025/26年度大豆进口量为286万吨，而去年为298万吨。 欧洲贸易商周二表示，巴基斯坦进口商在9月采购了约18万公吨大豆，预计货源自美国。此次采购共分 三批进行，每批约6万吨，预计将于2026年1月从美国墨西哥湾沿岸发运。 机构观点 大越期货： 瑞达期货（002961）： 近期两湖产区天气转晴，新豆晾晒进程加快，同时东北地区新豆也进入大量上市阶段，预计将对关内大 豆市场形成一定冲击。加之当前两湖及黄淮海产区新豆同步上市，市场供应压力逐步增大，需密切关注 豆价可能出现的下行风险。不过，随着中秋、国庆双节临近，下游备货需求逐渐释放，或对豆价形成阶 段性支撑。 ...

投资咨询证号： 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 【粕类日报】新作需求良好 盘面震荡回落 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/5/13 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 2937 | -11 | 天津 | 180 | 250 | -70 | | -16 | 0 5 | 2746 | | 东莞 | 150 | 170 | -20 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2886 | -22 | | 9 0 | 100 | -10 | | | | | | 日照 | 100 | 110 | -10 | | 菜粕 | 0 1 | 2295 | -17 | 南通 | -67 ...