研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 11 月 20 日 【粕类日报】美豆压力体现 盘面逐步回落 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/11/20 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 0 1 | | 3017 | - 5 | 天津 | 3 0 | 3 0 | 0 | | 0 5 | | 2811 | -13 | 东莞 | -40 | -40 | 0 | | 豆粕 | 0 9 | 2926 | -11 | 张家港 | -40 | -50 | 1 0 | | | | | | 日照 | -30 | -20 | -10 | | 0 1 | | 2412 | - 7 | 南通 | 8 | 2 1 | -13 | | 菜粕 | 0 5 | 2377 | -10 | 广东 | 9 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "Negotiations Look Promising, Sharp Rise in US Soybeans Boosts Soybean Meal" and is dated October 28, 2025 [1] - The report is from the Financial Research Institute of Hongye Futures, written by Chen Chunlei [3] Group 2: Market Performance - The Soybean No. 1 2601 contract continued its oscillating rebound. The spot price slightly increased; the market price of Fuyin soybeans rose from 4000 yuan/ton to around 4040 yuan/ton. The soybean basis strengthened oscillatingly, and the premium on the futures decreased [4] - The Soybean Meal 01 contract stopped falling and rebounded. The spot price of soybean meal recovered; the price of Zhangjiagang 43% protein soybean meal rose from 2870 yuan/ton to around 2910 yuan/ton. The basis strengthened oscillatingly, and the futures maintained a slight premium [4] Group 3: Domestic Soybean Situation - Domestic soybean harvesting is nearing completion with quality differentiation. As of October 24, the remaining soybean ratio in Heilongjiang reached 95%, 75% in Anhui, 70% in Henan, and 75% in Shandong. Heilongjiang's soybeans are of good quality, while those in North China are of poor quality [4] - Soybean supply is abundant, and initial Sino-US talks are promising. In September, domestic soybean imports were 12.87 million tons, a 4.8% increase from the previous month and a 13.2% increase year-on-year. From January to September, cumulative imports were 86.185 million tons, a 5.3% increase year-on-year. There is a possibility of purchasing US soybeans. As of October 24, the arrival volume of soybeans at oil mills was 2.145 million tons, a slight decrease from the previous month, and the port soybean inventory was 9.731 million tons, also a slight decrease but at a recent high [4] Group 4: US Soybean Situation - US soybeans rebounded significantly. The US government is still shut down, but some agricultural services are open, and subsidy funds have been issued. The US soybean harvest may be near completion. The positive expectation of Sino-US negotiations boosted US soybeans to a nearly one-year high [5] Group 5: Oil Mill Operations - The operating rate of oil mills continued to rise, and soybean meal inventory increased again. The profit from crushing Brazilian soybeans declined due to high costs. As of October 24, the operating rate of oil mills was 65.13%, a rebound from the previous month. The soybean crushing volume was 2.3674 million tons, reaching a recent high. The soybean inventory at oil mills was 7.513 million tons, a slight decrease from the previous month. The soybean meal output was 1.87 million tons, a rebound from the previous month. The soybean meal inventory at oil mills was 1.0546 million tons, a slight increase from the previous month, and the unfulfilled contracts for soybean meal were 4.2125 million tons, a further decline from the previous month [5] Group 6: Feed Demand - Feed demand is strong. In the pig farming sector, pig prices rebounded from a low level, and the loss margin narrowed. As of October 24, the profit from purchasing piglets for fattening was -289.07 yuan per head, a significant loss, while the profit from self-breeding and self-fattening was -185.68 yuan per head, with the loss narrowing. In the poultry sector, egg prices declined again, and egg-laying hens were in a loss-making situation, with insufficient culling, and the inventory in September remained at a historical high. As of October 24, the inventory days of soybean meal at feed mills were 7.95 days, a slight increase from the previous month [6] Group 7: Market Outlook - Domestic soybean harvesting is nearing completion, with quality differentiation, and prices have stabilized and rebounded. Domestic soybean supply is high, and there is a possibility of importing US soybeans under the expectation of Sino-US negotiations. The operating rate of oil mills is rising, and soybean meal inventory is increasing again. Demand is strong. Soybean No. 1 will oscillate and rebound, and soybean meal will oscillate and stabilize. Enterprises are advised to make purchases on dips as needed [6]

消息面 美国大豆产区天气仍存变数支撑美豆盘面底部，但南美大豆丰产和美豆生长天气整体良好压制美豆盘面 反弹高度。国产大豆对进口大豆性价比优势支撑盘面底部，但进口大豆到港量进入高峰和国产大豆增产 预期压制盘面预期。豆一A2511：3840至3940区间震荡。 9月24日，我国进口11月船期阿根廷大豆CNF报价447美元/吨，折合华南地区到港完税成本3624元/吨， 较周一下跌138元/吨。 据欧盟委员会，截至9月21日，欧盟2025/26年度大豆进口量为286万吨，而去年为298万吨。 欧洲贸易商周二表示，巴基斯坦进口商在9月采购了约18万公吨大豆，预计货源自美国。此次采购共分 三批进行，每批约6万吨，预计将于2026年1月从美国墨西哥湾沿岸发运。 机构观点 大越期货： 瑞达期货（002961）： 近期两湖产区天气转晴，新豆晾晒进程加快，同时东北地区新豆也进入大量上市阶段，预计将对关内大 豆市场形成一定冲击。加之当前两湖及黄淮海产区新豆同步上市，市场供应压力逐步增大，需密切关注 豆价可能出现的下行风险。不过，随着中秋、国庆双节临近，下游备货需求逐渐释放，或对豆价形成阶 段性支撑。 ...

投资咨询证号： 大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 5 月 13 日 【粕类日报】新作需求良好 盘面震荡回落 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/5/13 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 2937 | -11 | 天津 | 180 | 250 | -70 | | -16 | 0 5 | 2746 | | 东莞 | 150 | 170 | -20 | | 张家港 | 0 9 | 2886 | -22 | | 9 0 | 100 | -10 | | | | | | 日照 | 100 | 110 | -10 | | 菜粕 | 0 1 | 2295 | -17 | 南通 | -67 ...