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行业周报:白酒底部等待回暖,西麦食养赛道可期-20250914
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-09-14 07:52
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the food and beverage industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The white liquor market is gradually stabilizing, with health and nutrition creating a second growth curve for Ximai. The food and beverage index increased by 1.1% from September 8 to September 12, ranking 17th among 28 sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 0.3 percentage points. The sub-industries of meat products (+3.0%), white liquor (+1.7%), and pre-processed foods (+0.4%) performed relatively well. The white liquor sector is currently under demand pressure, with slight price declines for Feitian Moutai, indicating terminal demand stress. However, there are signs of improvement in terminal sales for Moutai since the end of August, suggesting that the bottom for the white liquor market is approaching. It is expected that the economic activity will increase with the implementation of large-scale infrastructure projects, leading to a stable upward trend in the white liquor market [4][11][12]. Summary by Sections Weekly Viewpoints - The white liquor market is stabilizing, and health products are becoming a potential growth area for Ximai. The food and beverage index's performance is lagging behind the market, with specific sub-industries showing better results [4][11]. Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 1.1%, ranking 17th out of 28 sectors, and underperformed the CSI 300 by about 0.3 percentage points. Meat products, white liquor, and pre-processed foods led the sub-industry performance [11][13]. Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices are declining, with full-fat milk powder auction prices down by 5.6% month-on-month but up by 12.2% year-on-year. Domestic fresh milk prices are also showing a downward trend [18][21]. Liquor Industry News - The liquor industry is seeing new product launches to adapt to market changes, with companies like Wuliangye and Zhenjiu introducing new products targeting younger consumers. The market is expected to recover as risks are released and new products are introduced [4][39]. Recommended Portfolio - The recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Wancheng Group, and Bairun Shares, with each company showing potential for growth despite current market pressures [5][43].