Core Insights - The live pig market has experienced fluctuations in prices, with a peak of 15.3 yuan/kg in early July, followed by a decline due to increased supply and weak demand [1] - As of September 22, the average price of live pigs was 12.67 yuan/kg, with regional variations [1] - The breeding sow inventory remains stable, with slight fluctuations, indicating no significant reduction in production capacity [2] Price Trends - Live pig prices surged in early July but have since declined due to increased supply and weak consumer demand [1] - The futures market for live pigs saw a peak in July, followed by a downward trend, with the main contract dropping to 12,770 yuan/ton by September 19 [1] Breeding Inventory - The national breeding sow inventory was reported at 40.42 million heads as of July 2025, showing minimal change [2] - Profitability in pig sales has remained positive, preventing a significant reduction in breeding capacity [2] Production Efficiency - Improvements in breeding techniques and management have led to increased production efficiency, with the potential for further enhancements through advanced technologies [3] Supply Pressure - An increase in the supply of live pigs is expected from September to November 2025, with supply levels higher than in previous years [4] - The average weight of pigs at market is also anticipated to exceed historical levels, contributing to supply pressure [4] Policy and External Factors - Domestic policies aimed at regulating pig production and managing supply are crucial for market dynamics [5] - External factors, such as import tariffs and seasonal disease risks, may also impact the market [6] Market Outlook - The short-term outlook for the live pig market remains weak due to high supply and limited demand [6] - A potential seasonal rebound in prices is expected in the fourth quarter, but overall supply pressure will continue to limit price increases [6]