图 片系AI生成 持续下行的猪价，让猪企感受到久违的凉意。 继9月呈现常态化下跌态势后，国庆节后生猪价格开启"自由落体"模式，全国均价已跌至11.20元/公斤， 刷新年内新低，且已跌破多数养殖主体13—14元/公斤的成本线，行业步入残酷的成本与现金流淘汰 赛。 面对盈利挑战，温氏股份、新希望等多数猪企采取"以量补价"策略，但未能抵消价格下跌带来的冲击。 与此同时，政策"反内卷"导向下融资端逐渐收紧，叠加市场对四季度猪价走势的悲观预期，部分现金流 吃紧的猪企或再度命悬一线。 猪价跌破成本线，盈利危机卷土重来 据中国养猪网，10月11日，全国生猪（外三元）均价为11.20元/公斤，猪价较昨日下跌0.22元/公斤，环 比下跌15.92%，同比下跌38.36%，创下年内新低。 源：中国养猪网 同日，大北农披露的生猪销售简报显示，2025年9月控股公司生猪销售数量为37.37万头，销售收入5.41 亿元。其中销售数量环比增长6.10%，同比增长33.08%；销售收入环比增长3.64%，同比增长-6.24%； 商品肥猪出栏均重128.86公斤，销售均价12.91元/公斤。 此前一天，已有多家猪企披露了2025年9月份的销 ...

10月9日晚，牧原股份发布公告称，2025年半年度利润分配方案为：以公司现有总股本剔除已回购股份 后的53.93亿股为基数，向全体股东每10股派9.275214元人民币现金（含税），分红总额50.02亿元（含 税）。 本次股权登记日为10月15日，除权除息日为10月16日。截至发稿，牧原股份报53.16元/股，总市值为 2904亿元。 拟分红超50亿元 根据公告，牧原股份的2025年半年度利润分配方案为：以公司现有总股本剔除已回购股份后的53.93亿 股为基数，向全体股东每10股派9.275214元人民币现金（含税），分红总额50.02亿元（含税）。 此次权益分派股权登记日为2025年10月15日，除权除息日为2025年10月16日。 今年上半年，牧原股份实现营业收入764.63亿元，同比增长34.46%；实现归母净利润105.30亿元，同比 增长 1169.77%。此次分红总额为50.02亿元（含税），占公司半年度净利润的47.50%。 9月商品猪销量减少 同日，牧原股份还发布了2025年9月份销售简报。 牧原股份指出，鉴于2025年上半年仔猪市场需求规模较大及公司生产成绩的提升，公司创新仔猪销售方 案，向 ...

同日，牧原股份公布9月份销售简报。9月，公司销售商品猪557.3万头，同比增长11.05%（其中向全资 子公司牧原肉食品有限公司及其子公司合计销售商品猪277.8万头）；商品猪销售均价12.88元/公斤，同 比下降30.94%；商品猪销售收入90.66亿元，同比下降22.46%。截至9月末，公司能繁母猪存栏为330.5 万头。 10月9日晚间，牧原股份发布公告称，2025年半年度利润分配方案为：以公司现有总股本剔除已回购股 份后的53.93亿股为基数，向全体股东每10股派9.275214元人民币现金（含税），分红总额50.02亿元 （含税）。股权登记日为10月15日，除权除息日为10月16日。截至10月9日收盘，牧原股份报52.85元/ 股，总市值为2887亿元。 公告称，自权益分派方案披露至实施期间，因牧原转债尚在转股期内，导致公司总股本在此次权益分派 实施前发生了变化。同时，公司通过回购专用证券账户持有公司股份6958.6523万股不享有参与利润分 配的权利，根据"分配比例将按分配总额不变相应调整"的原则，按公司现有总股本折算出每股现金分红 比例为0.9275214元/股。 牧原股份表示，近期，为平衡市场 ...

新华财经北京9月29日电（记者王小璐）受供应过剩影响，生猪价格从8月中旬持续下行。截至28日，全 国生猪均价已跌至12.26元／公斤，局部区域甚至跌破12元／公斤，创下年内新低。今日生猪期货主力 合约价格下探至12240元／吨，为2024年5月以来最低价格。 存栏数量高企，出栏数量也在不断增加，源源不断的生猪涌入市场。据Mysteel预计9月生猪计划出栏量 达1331.95万头，较8月实际出栏量小幅增长1.29%，较去年同期增加17.46%。具体来看，受8月高温淡季 影响，部分养殖企业未完成当月出栏任务，将生猪推迟至9月销售，进一步加大了9月出栏压力。 容志发表示，近期两广地区受台风天气影响，养殖端有提前出栏动作。随着双节到来，市场备货意愿提 升，部分前期压栏的猪源将加速出栏。 张晓君进一步补充，当前龙头企业后备母猪存栏充足，淘汰低产母猪的同时，生产效率也在持续提升。 部分龙头企业PSY（母猪生产效率）已经达到28-29头，排除疫病影响，生产效率提升为生猪出栏供给 提供保障。 与此同时，消费端也并未给猪价带来明显提振。张晓君告诉记者，9-10月份下游消费相对平淡，尚未进 入年底的季节性消费旺季。市场较为关注今 ...

Core Viewpoint - The continuous decline in pig prices is primarily driven by oversupply, with the average price dropping to 12.26 yuan/kg, marking a new low for the year [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The high inventory of breeding sows, which stood at 40.38 million heads as of August 2025, is 103.5% of the normal holding capacity, contributing to the oversupply [3]. - The planned pig slaughter volume for September is expected to reach 13.32 million heads, a slight increase of 1.29% from August and a 17.46% increase year-on-year [3]. - The market is currently experiencing a phase of supply surplus, leading to downward pressure on prices [3][4]. Market Conditions and Consumer Behavior - The upcoming holidays are expected to increase market stocking intentions, potentially accelerating the outflow of previously held pigs [4]. - Consumer demand remains weak, with no significant boost to pig prices anticipated in the near term [4][5]. Financial Impact on Farmers - Farmers are facing significant losses, with self-breeding farmers losing approximately 116 yuan per head and fattening farmers losing about 263 yuan per head [6]. - The cost of raising pigs for large groups is around 6.5 yuan/kg, while for smallholders it is about 7 yuan/kg, indicating that current prices are nearing the cost line for many producers [7]. Future Outlook - Analysts believe that pig prices have not yet reached the bottom, with the industry likely to remain in a "bottoming phase" [8]. - Long-term improvements in the supply-demand balance are anticipated due to production capacity regulation policies, with a potential decrease in breeding sow inventory to around 39 million heads [9].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31 号 出栏量兑现，产能出清仍需时间 投资观点： 震荡偏空 报告日期 2025-9-29 季度报告 ⚫ 投资建议 近期现货体现供应增加，持续疲软，下游承接力度有限，近月 合约升水现货，期货或将持续维持弱势。受出栏量预估增至明年 2 月的预期，01 合约仍受产能增加约束上涨空间。若冬季出现疫病， 短期仍有出栏压力。目前仔猪已经连续亏损一个月，仔猪价格是生 猪价格的前置指标，若维持目前仔猪、生猪亏损状态，可关注远月 07 合约多头的价值投资。 风险提示 生猪疫病、消费需求 生猪（LH） 分析师：杨璐琳 从业资格证号：F3042528 投资咨询证号：Z0015194 数据来源：WIND 往期相关报告 1.1 现货行情回顾 1.出栏稳步增加，现货持续疲软 2025.09.18 2.预期现货兑现，关注差能修复 2024.07.31 ⚫ 供给：下半年能繁母猪存栏每个月变化较小，根据农业农村部数 据，7 月末全国能繁母猪存栏量达 4042 万头，若政府调控能繁母猪 能落地，母猪或降至 3942 万头，仍为 3900 万头正常保有量之上。 三季度出栏量逐月明显增加，体现春天仔猪产能的修 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the pig farming industry in China, particularly the performance and regulatory environment affecting major companies like Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs Group [1][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Profitability in 2025**: The overall profitability of the pig farming industry in the first half of 2025 is reported to be strong, with Muyuan Foods achieving a net profit of 10 billion yuan, significantly outperforming its peers. In contrast, companies like Tangrenshen and Jinxinnong reported losses [1][3]. - **Impact of Pig Prices on CPI**: Pig prices have a significant impact on China's Consumer Price Index (CPI). Although the weight of pig prices in CPI has decreased from 2.3% in 2021 to 1.3% in 2022, it remains the highest among single commodities. In August 2025, pig prices fell by 16.1%, affecting the national CPI by approximately 0.24 percentage points [1][4]. - **Regulatory Measures**: Since May 2025, the government has implemented strict measures to control pig production capacity, including reducing the number of breeding sows by 1 million across the top 25 pig farming companies and provinces. The overall output is expected to decrease by 10% year-on-year [1][5]. - **Price Projections**: If the regulatory measures are effectively implemented, a 1% reduction in supply could lead to a 5%-7% increase in pig prices. By 2026, the national output is projected to decrease by about 5%, potentially resulting in a price increase of 25%-35%. The average price for 2026 is expected to be between 16-17 yuan per kilogram, with an average profit of 300-500 yuan per pig [1][5]. Additional Important Content - **Market Reactions**: Pig farming enterprises are responding positively to the regulatory policies. Large companies plan to significantly reduce the number of purchased piglets, while some free-range companies intend to cut their growth plans for the next year by as much as half [1][6]. - **Current Market Conditions**: The piglet market has seen significant price drops, with some regions reporting prices below cost. For instance, in Henan, Anhui, and Shandong, weaned piglets weighing 6-7 kg are selling for around 200 yuan, while the cost is approximately 300-350 yuan, indicating that breeding companies are facing losses [2][6]. - **Cautious Outlook**: If the average price of piglets remains low at around 300 yuan, breeding companies will be near the breakeven point, leading to a cautious outlook on future pig prices [2][6].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates a continuous decline in pig prices, with the average price falling below 14 yuan/kg in August and reaching a three-year low of 12.82 yuan/kg by September 19. The government is committed to reducing production capacity and stabilizing pig prices, which will shape the industry's future dynamics [1][2][3]. Industry Supply and Demand Performance - In August, pig prices continued to decline, with average prices dropping below 14 yuan/kg. By September 19, the average price of live pigs was 12.82 yuan/kg, marking the lowest level in three years [1][2]. - The supply side saw a significant increase in market pressure due to a concentration of sales from smallholders, leading to a notable price drop. High temperatures in August also suppressed consumer demand, resulting in weak sales [2]. - The number of breeding sows was reported at 40.42 million in July, showing a slight decrease. Data indicates a mixed trend in breeding sow inventory, with some samples showing growth while others indicate a decline [2]. Policy and Regulatory Developments - A meeting held on September 16 by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the National Development and Reform Commission emphasized the government's commitment to reducing production capacity and stabilizing pig prices. Clear regulatory targets were set for breeding stock and slaughter weights, with tighter funding and environmental measures [3]. - The short-term impact of these policies may increase supply pressure and lead to further price declines, but the long-term outlook suggests a potential recovery in pig prices by 2026 as inefficient production capacity is eliminated [3]. Future Market Outlook - The ongoing capacity regulation will remain a central theme in the industry, with expectations for the elimination of outdated production capacity. High-quality producers are likely to maintain profitability and benefit from improved margins post-regulation [4]. - The industry valuation is currently below historical averages, indicating a safety margin for investments. Key companies to watch include Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ), Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ), Tian Kang Biological (002100.SZ), and Shennong Group (605296.SH) [4]. Sales Data of Listed Companies - In August, major companies reported a decline in average sales prices, with Muyuan Foods at 13.51 yuan/kg, Wens at 13.90 yuan/kg, Zhengbang Technology at 13.75 yuan/kg, and New Hope at 13.54 yuan/kg, reflecting changes of -5.52%, -4.66%, -3.91%, and -6.23% respectively [5]. - The sales volume for August showed a recovery, with Muyuan Foods selling 700,000 pigs, Wens 325,000, New Hope 134,000, and Zhengbang 67,000, representing increases of 10.17%, 2.56%, 2.71%, and a decrease of -3.67% respectively [5]. - The average weight of pigs sold also decreased, with Muyuan at 125.29 kg, Wens at 109.95 kg, and New Hope at 95.07 kg, indicating a continued trend of reduced weights in the industry [5].

Core Insights - The livestock sector is experiencing significant capital inflow, with the Livestock ETF (159865) seeing nearly 1 billion yuan in net inflow over the past 10 days, with approximately 60% exposure to pig farming [1] - The average price of live pigs in China has decreased to 12.79 yuan/kg, down 3.55% week-on-week, indicating a continued downward trend in pig prices due to oversupply in the market [1] - A meeting held by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on September 16 emphasized the need to reduce the breeding sow population by about 1 million heads, aiming to lower the total to approximately 39.5 million heads [1] - Recent measures to curb overproduction in the pig industry are expected to raise the price center of domestic pigs in the medium to long term, with a focus on improving quality and efficiency in the industry [1] - The livestock sector may be entering a favorable allocation phase, with attention on the marginal changes in the Livestock ETF (159865) [1] Investment Opportunities - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Guotai Zhongzheng Livestock Breeding ETF Connect A (012724) and Connect C (012725) as potential investment options [2] - The "pig content" in the Livestock ETF is approximately 60%, indicating the weight of stocks related to pig farming, feed, and animal health within the index [2]

三季度以来，生猪现货价格高开低走。6月底至7月初，养殖端出栏积极性下降，整体出栏量大幅缩减， 导致屠企采购难度增加，被迫提价收购，猪价于7月3日冲高至15.3元／千克。随后，伴随着猪价快速拉 涨，屠企亏损扩大，减量意愿明显，同时终端消费表现低迷，且二次育肥增量支撑有限，在供强需弱格 局下，猪价再次走低。截至9月22日，全国外三元生猪价格为12.67元／千克。其中，全国最高价为13.65 元／千克（福建），全国最低价为11.87元／千克（广西），基准地河南均价为12.89元／千克。 期货方面，生猪期货价格在7月震荡走高，8月以来逐步走低。9月19日盘中，生猪期货主力2511合约一 度跌至12770元／吨。受供应压力大、需求走弱预期影响，期货价格在多数时间贴水现货价格。 能繁母猪暂无明显去化 根据农业农村部数据，截至2025年7月末，全国能繁母猪存栏量为4042万头，较6月减少1万头，环比减 少0.02%，同比持平。根据涌益咨询统计的样本数据，截至2025年8月末，能繁母猪存栏量环比增加 0.07%，同比增加6.23%。根据钢联统计的样本数据，截至2025年8月末，能繁母猪存栏量为523.04万 头，环比减少0. ...