瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.09」 沪锌市场周报 采需平淡库存累增 预计锌价震荡调整 研究员： 王福辉 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 行情回顾：本周沪锌主力冲高回调，周线涨跌幅为2.99%，振幅4.79%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价23970元 /吨。 行情展望：宏观面，美国劳动力市场未显明显压力，上周首次申请失业救济人数环比微增至20.8万，低于 预期21.2万；美债收益率反弹、美元四周新高。基本面，上游锌矿进口量高位，但国内锌矿年末减产；国 内炼厂采购国产矿竞争加大，国内外加工费均明显下跌，国内炼厂利润收缩，预计产量将继续受限。不过 近期伦锌价格回调，沪伦比值回升，出口窗口存在重新关闭可能。需求端，下游市场逐步转向淡季，地产 板块构成拖累，基建、家电板块也呈现走弱，而汽车等领域政策支持带来部分亮点。下游市场以逢低按需 采购为主，近期锌价快速走高，下游采购寡淡，现货升水偏高持稳，但国内库存回升明显；LME ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Zinc - Short - term Volatility [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side is fully loosening, the initial - stage consumption rebounds and then declines, showing short - term weakness. However, it is difficult to break through downward, and there are no more negative factors to hype. Meanwhile, the progress of European natural gas winter storage is slow, and overseas zinc prices are firm [3] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro & Industry News - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group predicts that the global refined zinc demand will grow by 1.1% in 2025, reaching 13.71 million tons, and further grow by 1% in 2026, reaching 13.86 million tons. The global refined zinc production is expected to grow by 2.7% in 2025, reaching 13.8 million tons, and further grow by 2.4% in 2026, reaching 14.13 million tons. The global refined zinc supply surplus is expected to be 85,000 tons in 2025 and expand to 271,000 tons in 2026 [1] 3.2 Supply - The mine - end production remains at a high level, and imports are rapidly recovering. The total supply is at the highest level in the same period of history. The zinc ore port inventory has significantly decreased since August, indicating that the smelting end is starting to gain momentum. The total supply at the smelting end remains high, and the smelting - end profit also supports the high - level production. The profit of mining enterprises has dropped to around 4,000, but it is still at a relatively medium - high level. The domestic TC price has not declined, and the imported TC has further increased. Although the profit of integrated enterprises has shrunk, it is still not low. Under the current processing fees, the possibility of production cuts for both pure smelting enterprises and integrated enterprises is extremely small, and the supply side generally shows a loosening trend [2] 3.3 Demand - The operating rate of zinc oxide has slightly increased, and the monthly operating rate is at the second - lowest level in the same period of history. For die - casting alloys, the operating rate has maintained a slight decline. Currently, the operating rate is lower than that of last year, showing both month - on - month and year - on - year decreases. The weekly output is currently at the middle level in the same period of history. Considering the demand boost brought by the traditional consumption peak season, the subsequent output may rebound, but zinc oxide and die - casting alloys have a low proportion in the consumption end, so the consumption boost for zinc ingots will be relatively limited. The overall profit level of galvanizing has decreased, but losses rarely occur. Currently, the profit margin of galvanizing has rebounded. From the trend, the profit margin is approaching the break - even point, which may reduce the production enthusiasm of galvanizing manufacturers. It is expected that after entering October, it will be difficult for the output to increase significantly. At the same time, the steel mill inventory and redemption inventory of galvanizing have increased simultaneously, indicating that the terminal demand is still weak [3] 3.4 Inventory and Structure - The LME inventory has continuously decreased, but the domestic social inventory and SHFE inventory have continuously increased. Except for the main contract, the spot - futures and inter - month structures maintain the Contango structure [3] 3.5 Operation Suggestion - Adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]