数据来源：海关总署 以下为根据中国海关总署官网数据整理的2025年10月精炼锌进口分项数据一览表： | Fresh | 2025年10月(吨) | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 哈萨克斯坦 | 16.127.43 | -9.18% | 21.53% | | 伊朗 | 1,000.26 | -44.41% | -75.73% | | 澳大利亚 | 806.30 | -28.03% | -94.81% | | 日本 | 407.29 | -49.38% | -2.85% | | 西班牙 | 179.32 | 51.08% | -92.85% | | 印度 | 99.51 | -0.99% | -98.69% | | 美国 | 70.00 | -- | -17.96% | | 秘鲁 | 49.31 | 11.14% | -98.57% | | 韩国 | 42.37 | 6.12% | -99.28% | | 加拿大 | 28.34 | -31.62% | -91.04% | | 表国 | 26.64 | -90.94% | -95.97% | | 总计 | 18,836 ...

现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】 2025年11月20日 星期四 70015979 价格及基美 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 86715 | 86002 | +110.00 | 0.13% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 85 | 70 | +15.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 85990 | 85945 | +45.00 | 0.05% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 35 | 5 | +30.00 | -- | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 85975 | 85880 | +95.00 | 0.11% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -55 | -55 | 0.00 | | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 2974 | 2729 | +245.00 | 8.98% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -35.33 | -32.62 | -2.71 | - | 美元/ ...

据国际铅锌研究小组（ILZSG）报告，今年8月全球锌矿产量为109.76万吨，环比增加2.2%，同比增加 13.1%；1—8月累计产量为830.5万吨，同比增长6.5%。10月该机构预计今年全球锌矿产量将同比增长 4.6%，至1251万吨。从全球角度看，锌矿供应总体是偏宽松的。 国内10月锌精矿产量为33.08万吨，较9月回升约1.6万吨，同比增长12.3%；1—10月累计产量为305.8万 吨，同比降幅为2.4%。从短期来看，我国锌矿供应有明显收紧倾向，加工费快速下移。相关数据显 示，截至上周，国产锌矿加工费降至2600元/金属吨，较8月的高点下降了1300元/金属吨。内外锌矿比 价持续低位运行，冶炼厂积极抢购国产矿。 10月下旬后，锌价重心逐步上移。受供给端出现积极变化影响，冶炼厂抢购国产矿情绪浓厚，锌矿供应 边际收紧，海外锌价坚挺也提供了一定支撑。 国内方面，据行业统计机构数据，10月我国精炼锌产量为61.72万吨，同比增长约21%；1—10月累计产 量为568.6万吨，同比增长10%。进入11月，锌矿供应紧张格局凸显，在利润压力下部分冶炼厂可能缩 减产量。不过副产品硫酸价格处于高位，冶炼厂大多通过技术 ...

（来源：紫金天风期货研究所） 来源：紫金天风期货研究所 【20251117】锌：结构≠方向 本周观点 基本面来看，年内国内冶炼厂减量有限，过剩预期不改。需求季节性下滑表征显著，下游企业开工低于 历史表现，整体呈现被动累库。供应端，国内冶炼厂高产情况下，矿端出现短缺。由于明年矿端增量主 要在国内某矿，海外矿端增量有限，因此冬储+内外比价低位背景下，矿贸商捂货挺价，内外加工费加 速下行，倒逼国内炼厂减产，明年一季度大幅减产可能性上升。 另外LME低库存挤仓问题仍未彻底解决。本周lme库存开始加速累库，但海外炼厂缺乏复产条件，结构 维持大Back，内外比价延续低位。 宏观面：海外方面，上周初美国停摆结束，市场获得流动性注入，但随后联储官员连续放鹰，12月降息 预期回落，加上关键美股财报出炉带来AI泡沫担忧，市场再度risk off；国内方面，10月经济数据欠佳且 年内政策加码难度较大，基本面仍处分化磨底阶段。本周9月非农报告、英伟达财报，宏观带来的波动 或加大。 结构方面，我们认为内外比价最坏的时刻已经过去，但反套最佳时点或在明年1-2月。年内国内炼厂减 量有限，或导致TC维持在低位，但明年一季度或有超季节性减量， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc (2512) closed at 22,720 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, with a week-on-week increase of 1.63%. The center of Shanghai zinc has risen [3]. - The macro situation is mixed with both positive and negative factors, and uncertainty is increasing. The increase in domestic refined zinc production falls short of expectations, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze in LME zinc, but the downstream operating rate is declining. With macro uncertainty and a mixed fundamental situation with limited driving forces, Shanghai zinc should be treated as a volatile market [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Data - The spread between December and January contracts of Shanghai zinc has changed little week-on-week, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium has strengthened [9]. - The spot premium in Shanghai has risen, while those in Guangdong and Tianjin are under pressure [12]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Smelters continue to scramble for domestic zinc ore, and the processing fee for imported ore continues to deteriorate. In October, domestic refined zinc production increased by more than 17,000 tons month-on-month and about 21% year-on-year, but the increase was less than expected. In November, production is expected to decrease by 0.9% month-on-month and increase by nearly 20% year-on-year [17][19][21]. - **Demand**: This week, the downstream operating rate has declined. The operating rate of galvanizing has decreased due to environmental protection restrictions in some areas, but orders from some southern terminals have improved, and the operating rate may rebound next week. The high zinc price has suppressed the operating rate of die-casting zinc alloy, which is expected to continue to decline next week. The market demand for zinc oxide is average, and the operating rate is expected to remain low next week [3][27]. - **Inventory**: Domestic zinc ingot spot inventory has slightly decreased and is at a high level compared to the same period last year, while the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone remains unchanged. LME zinc inventory has slightly decreased and is at a low level compared to the same period last year [33][36]. - **Related Industries**: From October 27th to November 2nd, the transaction areas of new and second-hand houses in 10 key cities decreased year-on-year. In November, the production plan of household air conditioners is 12.76 million units, a decrease of 23.7% compared to the actual production in the same period last year. The production plan of refrigerators is 7.78 million units, a decrease of 9.4%. The production plan of washing machines is 7.93 million units, a decrease of 0.2%. From October 1st to 31st, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 17% year-on-year. In November, the production plans of domestic component enterprises vary, and the overall production is expected to decline month-on-month [40][43][51].

Report Summary 1. Core Views - **Positive Factors**: Zinc ore visible inventory is continuously decreasing, and the decline in processing fees has led to a narrowing of smelting profits. The temporary tightness of raw material supply restricts refined zinc production. The operating rates of demand - side sectors such as galvanizing and die - casting zinc are stable. The stable rigid demand consumption combined with positive market sentiment provides support [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic zinc ingot inventory is relatively high (social inventory is 163,500 tons), and it increased by 1,400 tons this week, continuously suppressing prices. The weak fundamental pattern dominates pricing, and there is a risk of price decline if demand does not improve substantially [3]. - **Trading Advice**: Consider an interval trading strategy and pay attention to marginal changes in supply and demand [3]. 2. Section Summaries Processing and End - User Demand - Multiple charts are presented, including the weekly market sentiment index of galvanized coils, weekly inventory, weekly production, net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), net imports of die - casting zinc alloys, net exports of color - coated sheets (strips), net exports of zinc oxide, real - estate development investment and project progress cumulative year - on - year data, sales area and unsold area cumulative year - on - year data, land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities, and the number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, as well as infrastructure fixed - asset investment data [4][7][10][12][14][15]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Charts show the monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, zinc concentrate TC, monthly production of SMM zinc ingots, production profit and processing fees of refined zinc enterprises, monthly production plus imports of Chinese zinc ingots, raw material inventory days of zinc concentrates, LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc inventory, and exchange zinc ingot inventory [18][20][21][22][24][25]. Futures and Spot Market Review - Charts cover the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, LME zinc closing price vs. the US dollar index, LME zinc (spot/three - month) and 3 - 15 spread, LME zinc (spot/three - month) spread seasonality, Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonality, and the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations [27][28][29][31][32][33][36]. 3. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided in the report about industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views Copper - Overseas liquidity is tight, and the strong US dollar index suppresses copper prices. The market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November, and subsequent attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm and Sino - US tariff situation. - The shortage of copper ore supply remains unchanged. If the prices of by - products such as sulfuric acid continue to fall, there may be a phased reduction in smelting production. The psychological price ceiling of downstream users for copper is gradually rising. - In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom. In the short - term, excessive price increases may inhibit demand. [2] Aluminum - The alumina market shows regional differentiation. The northern market shows signs of bottoming out, while the southern market continues to decline. The supply pressure has not been substantially relieved, and the demand side faces multiple pressures. - The recent rise in the aluminum price is mainly driven by events, with potential risks of short - term range corrections. Attention should be paid to the actual production progress of Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects, the supply recovery progress of Guinean bauxite, and the inventory depletion rhythm. [4] Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market followed the aluminum price to rise, but the downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and the supply of scrap aluminum is short, leading to a contraction in industry supply. - The demand side shows a mild recovery, and the ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend under the dual effects of cost support and supply - demand balance. [5] Zinc - Against the background of concerns about LME zinc squeezing, the Shanghai zinc price oscillated at a high level. The supply is generally loose, but the subsequent increase in supply may be limited, and attention should be paid to the inflection point signal of supply changing from loose to tight. - The demand side has no unexpected performance. The low overseas inventory supports the zinc price, and the domestic zinc supply is relatively loose. The zinc price is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term and may maintain a range - bound trend. [7] Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the improvement in supply is limited this year. The demand side is still weak, and although some consumption is driven by AI and the photovoltaic industry, it is difficult to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. - The market sentiment has improved, and the long - term low - position orders can be held. The follow - up should focus on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar. [8] Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market oscillated and repaired slightly. The macro - market sentiment is weak, and attention should be paid to the 2026 RKAB approval in Indonesia. - The refined nickel production is still at a high level, with new projects put into production and some projects planning to reduce production. The nickel ore supply in the Philippines is affected by the rainy season, while that in Indonesia is relatively loose. The price of ferronickel is under pressure, and the overall fundamentals are flat, with the price expected to fluctuate within a range. [10] Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market oscillated narrowly, with weak market information. The macro - driving force is weakened, and the nickel ore supply in the Philippines is reduced, while that in Indonesia is relatively loose. - The ferronickel price is under pressure, and the chromium - iron market is weakly stable. The supply pressure remains, and the demand is not significantly boosted. The short - term price is expected to be weakly volatile. [12] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - carbonate market was generally strong. The production increased slightly last week, mainly driven by lithium - spodumene and mica. The downstream demand is more optimistic than expected, but the news - side uncertainty and capital impact may put pressure on the price. - The price is expected to be volatile, with the main contract reference range of 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton. [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 660 yuan/ton to 85,995 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.77%. - The import profit and loss improved by 21.88 yuan/ton to - 500 yuan/ton. [2] Fundamental Data - In October, the electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. In September, the import volume was 33.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50%. - The domestic mainstream port copper - concentrate inventory decreased by 5.2 million tons to 62.61 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.67%. [2] Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 60 yuan/ton to 21,360 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.28%. - The import profit and loss improved by 98.7 yuan/ton to - 2349 yuan/ton. [4] Fundamental Data - In October, the alumina production was 778.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52%. - The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons to 62.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.48%. [4] Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,350 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum decreased by 37 yuan/ton to 1729 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.10%. [5] Fundamental Data - In October, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 64.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. In September, the primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 28.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06%. - The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.1 million tons to 5.58 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.82%. [5] Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,500 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss improved by 525.27 yuan/ton to - 4212 yuan/ton. [7] Fundamental Data - In October, the refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In September, the import volume was 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61%. - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory decreased by 0.28 million tons to 15.87 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.73%. [7] Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 1500 yuan/ton to 282,800 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.53%. - The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 25.5 dollars/ton to 39.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 39.23%. [8] Fundamental Data - In September, the tin ore import was 8714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. The SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71%. - The SHEF inventory increased by 153 tons to 5919 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.65%. [8] Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 450 yuan/ton to 120,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37%. - The futures import profit and loss decreased by 374 yuan/ton to - 1701 yuan/ton, an increase of 28.18%. [10] Supply and Inventory - The Chinese refined nickel production was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. The import volume was 38,164 tons, a month - on - month increase of 124.36%. - The SHFE inventory increased by 676 tons to 36,751 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.87%. [10] Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton. - The spot - futures price difference decreased by 55 yuan/ton to 380 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.64%. [12] Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 enterprises) was 182.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. The Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (Qinglong) was 42.35 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36%. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.32 million tons to 48.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65%. [12] Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 80,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.12%. - The SMM electric - carbon - industrial - carbon price difference remained unchanged at 2200 yuan/ton. [14] Fundamental Data - In October, the lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%. The demand was 126,961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70%. - The total lithium carbonate inventory in October was 84,234 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.90%. [14]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the Fed's "rate cut + halt to balance - sheet reduction" signals a major shift in post - pandemic monetary policy. A December rate cut is likely, but future policies will be more flexible and uncertain. Domestically, China's economy in the first three quarters was in line with expectations, with strong resilience. Despite challenges like weak consumption and investment, policies will support the economy to achieve the annual growth target [4][56][57]. - For aluminum, the Fed's expected December rate cut and domestic fiscal support are macro factors. Fundamentally, the Guinea rainy - season impact on ore shipments may support alumina prices, but the alumina supply remains loose. Demand is transitioning to the off - season, and inventory accumulation pressure is increasing. The monthly price has a support level around 20,500 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton [4][105]. - For zinc, the external - strong and internal - weak pattern will continue. In November, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Supply may decline, and the domestic refined zinc surplus may ease. Demand is entering the off - season, with the real estate sector weak and the auto and home - appliance sectors providing support [8][9]. - For tin, the supply at the mine end remains tight, and the recovery of production in Myanmar is slow. The semiconductor and auto industries support tin demand. The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [9][10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro: The Fed Cuts Rates as Expected, and Domestic Demand Still Faces Pressure Market Operation Logic - **US**: In October, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points and ended balance - sheet reduction. Manufacturing was in a slump, service industry growth slowed, the labor market cooled, and the CPI fell more than expected. Future policies are expected to be more flexible and uncertain, and a December rate cut is likely [19][20][24]. - **Eurozone**: In October, the economy showed "enhanced stage expansion and intensified structural differentiation." The service industry PMI reached a 1 - and - a - half - year high, inflation fell slightly, but the manufacturing recession continued. The labor market was stable, and inflation showed "overall cooling and core stability" [26][28][29]. - **China**: In the first three quarters, the economy grew steadily. Investment declined, consumption slowed, and exports showed strong resilience. The price index showed some repair, and the PMI indicated overall stable production and operation but a weak manufacturing demand [34][44][50]. Market Trend Judgment - Overseas, the Fed's policy shift is significant, and future policies are uncertain. The eurozone economy depends on the service industry in the short - term and needs to solve multiple challenges in the long - term. - Domestically, the economy in the first three quarters was in line with expectations. In the fourth quarter, Sino - US relations are easing, and fiscal policies will support the economy to achieve the annual target [56][57][58]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors Overseas economic trends, monetary policy changes, US tariff policy evolution, domestic incremental policies, and terminal demand [60]. 3.2 Aluminum: Off - season Downstream Start - up Cools, but High - level Support Remains Market Operation Logic - **Cost Side**: In October, domestic bauxite prices rose slightly, and overseas prices fell. The supply of domestic bauxite was tight, and the impact of the Guinea rainy season on imports was still being felt. In 2025, the supply of imported bauxite may increase, but the spot resources may still be tight. In October, the output of alumina increased, but the profit was compressed. In November, the market is expected to remain in surplus, and prices will be under pressure. In October, the cost of electrolytic aluminum decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in November [64][72][77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In October, production increased, and the aluminum - water ratio rose. In November, winter environmental protection restrictions may affect production, and the aluminum - water ratio is expected to decline. Import losses are large, and the net import volume may exceed last year [80][82]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: In October, the refined - scrap price difference widened, and the PMI of the recycled aluminum industry declined but remained above the boom - bust line. In November, demand is expected to be boosted, and the industry PMI may continue to expand. The substitution of recycled aluminum for primary aluminum is gradually emerging [86]. - **Demand Side**: In October, the aluminum processing PMI fell below the boom - bust line. Different sectors have different performances. Demand is transitioning to the off - season. The real estate market is still weak, but the auto market is growing well. In November, the State Grid's order bidding may accelerate, but terminal demand needs to be released [88][91][98]. - **Supply - Demand Balance and Inventory**: Near the end of October, the supply increased, and demand was weak. In November, the inventory may change from de - stocking to stocking, which will have a negative impact on prices [100]. Market Trend Judgment The Fed is likely to cut rates in December, and domestic fiscal policies will support the economy. Fundamentally, the Guinea rainy - season impact may support alumina prices, but the supply is still loose. Demand is in the off - season, and inventory accumulation pressure is increasing. The monthly price has a support level around 20,500 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 21,500 - 21,800 yuan/ton [105]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors Macro - policy games, overseas events, ore - end resumption and shipment, inventory trends, and actual terminal demand [107]. 3.3 Zinc: The External - strong and Internal - weak Pattern Continues, Pay Attention to the Upper Pressure Market Operation Logic - **Market Trend in October**: Zinc prices fluctuated higher after a correction. Overseas prices were stronger than domestic ones. The market was boosted by overseas rate cuts and low LME inventories in the short - term, but faced long - term surplus pressure [110]. - **Zinc Concentrate**: Domestic zinc concentrate production is expected to decline in the fourth quarter. Overseas production increased significantly in the first half of 2025 and is expected to continue to increase in the second half. In October, processing fees declined, and import losses increased. Port inventories are at a high level in recent years, and the raw - material inventory days of smelters have decreased [113][115][122]. - **Refined Zinc**: In October, production increased but was lower than expected. In November, production is expected to decline due to factors such as raw - material shortages and profit compression. Zinc ingot imports are at a low level, and the domestic inventory increase pressure may ease. Overseas LME inventories are at a low level, supporting prices [124][127][130]. - **Zinc Consumption**: The traditional consumption season was under - performing. Galvanized sheet exports may decline in October. The real estate market is still weak, and the impact on zinc demand is limited. The auto market is growing well but may cool slightly in the fourth quarter [132][137][139]. Market Trend Judgment The external - strong and internal - weak pattern will continue. In November, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [9]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors No relevant content provided. 3.4 Tin: The Probability of Overseas Supply Increase Rises, and the Price Center of Gravity Faces Downward Risk Market Operation Logic - **Mine End**: The supply at the mine end is still tight, and the resumption of production in Myanmar is slow. The arrival volume from Congo (Kinshasa) and Australia will increase in October. - **Smelting**: After the September shutdown and maintenance, refined tin production increased in October, but raw - material shortages in some provinces led to low processing fees. - **Downstream Demand**: The semiconductor industry supports tin demand, and the auto market has grown rapidly but may slow down at the end of the year. Market Trend Judgment The supply - demand situation is weak on both sides, and tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [9][10]. Later Concerns/Risk Factors No relevant content provided.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report Copper - Overseas liquidity is tight, the US dollar index is strong, and copper prices weakened yesterday. In the medium - long term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices, but short - term rapid increases suppress demand. The support for the main contract is at 84000 - 85000 [1]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to remain weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 2750 - 2900 yuan/ton. Aluminum prices will likely fluctuate between event - driven factors and weak fundamentals in the short term, and there is a risk of a callback to 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton if inventory accumulates [4]. Aluminum Alloy - ADC12 prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices will show a short - term oscillating and strengthening trend, but the fundamentals provide limited elasticity for the continuous upward movement of Shanghai zinc. It may maintain range - bound oscillations, with the main contract reference range of 22300 - 23000 [8]. Tin - Considering the strong fundamentals, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, tin prices may weaken; otherwise, they are expected to continue the strong trend [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 126000. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 12500 - 13000. Attention should be paid to macro - expectations and steel mill supply [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be weakly adjusted, with the main contract reference range of 76000 - 82000 yuan/ton [17]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 86590 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 685 yuan/ton, up 186.69 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread was 30 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 109.16 million tons, down 2.62% month - on - month; in September, imports were 33.43 million tons, up 26.50% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 21440 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 2608 yuan/ton, down 2.8 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 35 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, alumina production was 778.53 million tons, up 2.39% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 374.21 million tons, up 3.52% month - on - month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 was at 21400 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 115 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton from the previous day [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, up 4.43% month - on - month [6]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 22580 yuan/ton, up 1.03% from the previous day. The import profit and loss was - 4758 yuan/ton, down 276.57 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 55 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, refined zinc production was 61.72 million tons, up 2.85% month - on - month; in September, imports were 2.27 million tons, down 11.61% month - on - month [8]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin was at 285400 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 premium was 74.00 dollars/ton, up 85.00% from the previous day [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 310 yuan/ton, down 66.07% from the previous day [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, tin ore imports were 8714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 10510 tons, down 31.71% month - on - month [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 121800 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day. The LME 0 - 3 was - 212 dollars/ton, down 3.25% from the previous day [13]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: In October, China's refined nickel production was 35900 tons, up 0.84% month - on - month; imports were 38164 tons, up 124.36% month - on - month [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) was at 12800 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The futures - spot price difference was 425 yuan/ton, up 25.00% from the previous day [15]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2512 - 2601 spread was - 65 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 182.17 million tons, up 0.38% month - on - month; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 42.35 million tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 80608 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the previous day. The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate benchmark) was 280 yuan/ton, down 83.53% from the previous day [17]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread was - 1480 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton from the previous day [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92260 tons, up 5.73% month - on - month; demand was 126961 tons, up 8.70% month - on - month [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **Lido Factors**: Refined zinc supply remains at a low level, supporting the firmness of zinc prices. Demand is in a seasonal peak season, and consumption expectations boost market sentiment [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The trend of accelerated inventory accumulation is emerging, and inventory pressure suppresses price increases. The pattern of oversupply in the domestic market continues, and the widening import losses restrain the market [3]. - **Trading Advisory Viewpoint**: The unilateral strategy is recommended to be cautiously bullish, with a focus on tracking the dynamics of the export window [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Processing Links and Terminal Demand - **Galvanized Sheet Coil**: The content includes the market sentiment index (weekly), weekly inventory - seasonality, and steel mill weekly production - seasonality [4]. - **Net Exports and Imports**: There are net export seasonality data for galvanized sheets (strips), color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide, as well as net import seasonality data for die - cast zinc alloys [7][9][10]. - **Real Estate**: Data on real estate development investment and project progress cumulative year - on - year, sales area cumulative year - on - year, and unsold area cumulative year - on - year, as well as 100 major cities'成交 land area and 30 major cities' commercial housing transaction volume are presented [12][14][16]. - **Infrastructure**: The cumulative year - on - year data of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) completion amount in transportation, warehousing and postal services, water conservancy, environment and public facilities management, tertiary industry infrastructure construction, and power, heat, gas and water production and supply industries are shown [17][18]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - **Zinc Concentrate**: Monthly import volume - seasonality, TC, and raw material inventory days are provided [20][22][26]. - **Zinc Ingot Production**: Monthly production - seasonality of SMM zinc ingots, China's monthly zinc ingot production + import volume - seasonality are included [23][24]. - **Inventory**: LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc inventory, and exchange zinc ingot inventory data are presented [26][27]. - **Production Profit**: The production profit and processing fees of refined zinc enterprises are shown [23]. Futures Disk and Spot Market Review - **Zinc Price Trend**: The trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index are presented [29][31]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of SHFE zinc main contracts are shown [30]. - **Price Spread**: LME zinc (spot/three - month): premium/discount, 100 - basis spread trends of zinc ingots in three places are presented [33][38].