哈萨克斯坦统计局周二公布的数据显示，哈萨克斯坦2026年1月铜产量同比下滑9.4%。 精炼铜：2026年1月产量为38,641吨，较2025年12月的38,992吨环比下降0.9%，较2025年1月同比下降9.4%。2025年全年产量为470,990吨，全年同比增长 1.5%。 精炼锌：2026年1月产量为20,258吨，较2025年12月的21,688吨环比下降6.6%，较2025年1月同比下降7.8%。2025年全年产量为259,638吨，全年同比下降 6.6%。 氧化铝和未锻造铝：2026年1月产量为140,392吨，较2025年12月的147,586吨环比下降4.9%，较2025年1月同比下降9.7%。2025年全年产量为1,782,420吨，全 年同比下降1.4%。 铁合金：2026年1月产量为180,505吨，较2025年12月的403,791吨环比大幅下降55.3%，较2025年1月同比下降5.3%。2025年全年产量为2,469,496吨，全年同 比增长7.7%。 粗钢：2026年1月产量为339,523吨，较2025年12月的443,923吨环比下降23.5%，较2025年1月同比下降5.7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views Nickel - Refined nickel prices are high, stimulating production, but demand is weak. The nickel - iron market has a large psychological price gap between supply and demand, and transactions are weak. Stainless - steel demand is weak, and downstream purchases of nickel - sulfate are limited. Social inventories are accumulating. Overall, nickel prices are expected to fall first and then fluctuate widely, with the main contract reference range of 135,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton [2]. Stainless Steel - Stainless - steel futures have large fluctuations. Cost support is strengthening, but demand is weak. Steel mills are reducing production, and social inventories are slightly accumulating. The market is expected to be in a shock - adjustment state in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 14,800 yuan/ton [5]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market was weak last week. Supply is expected to decline, and demand is relatively optimistic. Social inventories are being depleted, and upstream inventories are low. The price is expected to remain in a relatively strong range, but may fall in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 140,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton [8]. Copper - In the long - term, copper supply is restricted by capital expenditure, and demand is increasing due to AI - related grid upgrades, so the bottom price is expected to rise. In the short - term, copper prices may return to fundamental pricing under the narrowing of CL premium. Attention should be paid to CL premium changes and downstream demand, with the main contract support at 101,500 - 103,000 yuan/ton [9]. Zinc - Zinc ore shortages support prices. Although zinc ore port inventories are accumulating, smelter profits are under pressure, and demand is suppressed by high prices. The overall fundamentals are good, and the price downside is limited, with the main contract support at 25,000 - 25,500 yuan/ton [13]. Tin - In the short - term, tin prices fluctuate greatly due to market sentiment. In the long - term, due to the low elasticity of supply and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race, a low - buying strategy is recommended [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market has high price fluctuations. The cost is the main driving factor, and the supply - demand is seasonally weak. It is expected that the ADC12 price will fluctuate in a high - level range, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton [15]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices have risen sharply, driven by macro - factors and geopolitical risks, but have deviated from fundamentals. High prices suppress downstream demand, and inventories are increasing. It is recommended to wait for price stabilization and volatility decline before going long, with price support at 23,000 - 23,500 yuan/ton [16]. Industrial Silicon - In January, the supply and demand of industrial silicon weakened slightly, and it will continue in February. Supply is expected to decline further. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to demand changes [17]. Polysilicon - In February, the supply and demand of polysilicon are weak. Production is expected to decrease, and the inventory accumulation slope is slowing down. The 45,000 yuan/ton level is expected to have support. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to production cuts and downstream demand recovery [18]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.25% to 146,150 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss of futures decreased by 515.79% to - 1,638 yuan/ton [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) price decreased by 0.69% to 14,400 yuan/ton; the spot - futures price difference increased by 405.88% to 430 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 4.46% to 160,500 yuan/ton; the basis increased by 286.79% to 12,300 yuan/ton [8]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.22% to 104,410 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference decreased by 45.25% to 3,631 yuan/ton [9]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 1.98% to 25,790 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss increased by 317 yuan/ton to - 2,126 yuan/ton [13]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 2.27% to 428,650 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss increased by 4.65% to - 10,538.60 yuan/ton [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price decreased by 0.81% to 24,350 yuan/ton; the refined - scrap price difference of Foshan broken primary aluminum increased by 16.73% to 3,174 yuan/ton [15]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.80% to 24,660 yuan/ton; the electrolytic aluminum import profit and loss increased by 302.8 yuan/ton to - 1,779 yuan/ton [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton; the basis decreased by 183.33% to - 75 yuan/ton [17]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re - feed material decreased by 2.29% to 51,300 yuan/kg; the N - type material basis increased by 31.44% to 4,160 yuan/ton [18]. Month - to - Month Price Difference - **Nickel**: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 390 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 155 yuan/ton to - 275 yuan/ton [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: 2602 - 2603 increased by 200 yuan/ton to - 780 yuan/ton [8]. - **Copper**: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 70 yuan/ton to - 270 yuan/ton [9]. - **Zinc**: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [13]. - **Tin**: 2602 - 2603 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to - 1,000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: 2602 - 2603 increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 80 yuan/ton [15]. - **Aluminum**: AL 2602 - 2603 increased by 245 yuan/ton to 110 yuan/ton [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract increased by 1.88% to 8,955 yuan/ton; the difference between the current month and the first - following month decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 45 yuan/ton [17]. - **Polysilicon**: The difference between the current month and the first - following month decreased by 775 yuan/ton to - 1,230 yuan/ton [18]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production increased by 26.10% to 31,400 tons; SHFE inventory increased by 9.06% to 25,396 tons [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.92% to 176.32 million tons; 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 0.82% to 45.77 million tons [5]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In December, lithium carbonate production decreased by 1.31% to 99,200 tons; total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 12.23% to 64,560 tons [8]. - **Copper**: In January, electrolytic copper production increased by 0.10% to 117.93 million tons; domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 6.85% to 67.33 million tons [9]. - **Zinc**: In January, refined zinc production increased by 1.54% to 56.06 million tons; China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 1.35% to 11.72 million tons [13]. - **Tin**: In December, tin ore imports remained unchanged at 17,637 tons; SHFE inventory increased by 7.70% to 10,468 tons [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 6.16% to 64 million tons; recycled aluminum alloy weekly social inventory decreased by 2.11% to 4.64 million tons [15]. - **Aluminum**: In January, alumina production decreased by 1.78% to 738.56 million tons; China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5.25% to 78.2 million tons [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15% to 39.71 million tons; social inventory decreased by 0.36% to 55.4 million tons [17]. - **Polysilicon**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 12.73% to 10.08 million tons; polysilicon inventory increased by 0.91% to 33.3 million tons [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given documents. 2. Report Core Views Copper - Short - term: Copper prices may gradually return to fundamental pricing. Pay attention to CL premium changes and LME inventory changes. The main contract is supported at 99000 - 100000 yuan/ton. [1] - Medium - to long - term: Bullish on the upward shift of the price bottom center due to capital expenditure constraints on the supply side. [1] Zinc - Short - term: The downside space of zinc prices may be limited. The support comes from the tightening of domestic zinc mines, and the pressure comes from the negative feedback on the demand side. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes. The main contract is supported at around 24000 yuan/ton. [5] Aluminum - Alumina: Expected to continue wide - range fluctuations around the industry cash cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2600 - 2900 yuan/ton. [7] - Aluminum: Expected to maintain a high - level wide - range shock in the short term, with the main contract reference operating range of 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton. [7] Aluminum Alloy Expected to continue the high - level range shock in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the actual circulation of scrap aluminum, import window changes, and the final strength and rhythm of downstream inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival. [8] Nickel Expected to show a relatively strong shock in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 140000 - 150000 yuan/ton. [9] Stainless Steel Expected to have an oscillatory adjustment in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 14000 - 15000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the news on the ore end and the improvement in demand. [13] Tin - Short - term: Prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment. Hold existing long positions with caution. - Medium - to long - term: Adopt a low - buying strategy considering the low elasticity of the supply side and the long - term narrative of the AI arms race. [16] Industrial Silicon Expected to maintain price fluctuations, with the main price range of 8200 - 9200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the changes in demand - side production. [18] Polysilicon In the current weak demand situation, polysilicon faces the choice between production cuts or price cuts. The price may be supported at 48000 yuan/ton, and 45000 yuan/ton may also have support. Adopt a wait - and - see approach during the cooling - off period, and pay attention to future production cuts and downstream demand recovery. [19] Lithium Carbonate Expected to be relatively strong in the short term. Be cautious in short - term operations, and be aware of high - valuation and liquidity risks when chasing up prices. [21] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 100830 yuan/ton, up 0.76% from the previous day. The refined - scrap price difference is 2865 yuan/ton, up 5.22%. [1] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, up 6.80% month - on - month; imports were 26.02 million tons, down 4.02% month - on - month. [1] Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 24620 yuan/ton, up 1.28%. The import loss is - 2052 yuan/ton. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, down 7.24% month - on - month; imports were 0.88 million tons, down 51.94% month - on - month. [5] Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 24110 yuan/ton, up 1.56%. The import loss of electrolytic aluminum is - 1919 yuan/ton. [7] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 378.10 million tons, up 3.97% month - on - month; imports were 18.92 million tons, up 28.77% month - on - month. [7] Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 24000 yuan/ton, up 0.63%. The refined - scrap price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum is 2919 yuan/ton, up 14.97%. [8] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 64.00 million tons, down 6.16% month - on - month; the import of unforged aluminum alloy ingots was 9.31 million tons, up 27.19% month - on - month. [8] Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 148550 yuan/ton, up 1.92%. The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel is 112237 yuan/ton, up 1.09% month - on - month. [9] - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in December was 31400 tons, up 26.10% month - on - month; imports were 23394 tons, up 84.63% month - on - month. [9] Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 14300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1043 yuan/nickel point, up 0.87%. [13] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 176.32 million tons, up 0.92% month - on - month; exports were 40.53 million tons, up 13.18% month - on - month. [13] Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price is 420300 yuan/ton, up 4.23%. The import loss is - 6632.02 yuan/ton, up 13.60%. [16] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, tin ore imports were 17637 tons, up 16.81%; SMM refined tin production was 15950 tons, down 0.06%. [16] Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Main Contract Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - permeable SI5530 industrial silicon is 9250 yuan/ton, unchanged. [18] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, the national industrial silicon product output was 39.71 million tons, down 1.15% month - on - month. [18] Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The average price of N - type re -投料 is 54000 yuan/kg, unchanged. The N - type silicon wafer - 210mm average price is 1.63 yuan/piece, down 1.21%. [19] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production is 2.05 million tons, down 4.65%. Monthly polysilicon imports are 0.19 million tons, up 77.50%. [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 171000 yuan/ton, up 3.95%. The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate CIF is 2214 US dollars/ton, up 3.94%. [21] - **Fundamental Data**: In December, lithium carbonate production was 99200 tons, up 4.04% month - on - month; demand was 130118 tons, down 2.50% month - on - month. [21]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - In 2025, copper production reached 453.5 thousand tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, aligning with previously disclosed guidance, driven by strong operational performance across all assets in Q4 [1] - The Quebrada Blanca mine had a notable Q4 performance with copper production of 55,400 tons, while Q4 copper sales were lower than production due to weather and sea conditions causing temporary inventory buildup [1] - Zinc production in 2025 was 565.0 thousand tons, with a Q4 refined zinc production of 68.1 thousand tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.8% [2][7] - The 2026 production guidance for all Teck-operated mines remains unchanged, with adjustments made to the Antamina mine's zinc production guidance [3] Summary by Sections Production and Operations - Q4 2025 copper production was 134.1 thousand tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 28.9% [1][7] - Q4 2025 zinc production was 108.6 thousand tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.6% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.0% [2][7] 2026 Guidance - The 2026 guidance for Antamina's zinc production was revised down from 55,000-65,000 tons to 35,000-45,000 tons, reflecting updates to the mine plan [3] - The copper production guidance for Antamina remains unchanged at 95,000-105,000 tons for 2026 [3]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Short - term Shanghai zinc may fluctuate weakly. The short - term market sentiment weakens, and the downstream gradually shuts down before the Spring Festival, so the demand is difficult to improve substantially. The domestic supply remains low, but the export window closes, and the domestic supply - demand margin weakens, so Shanghai zinc lacks upward momentum. In the medium and long term, it is necessary to wait for the signal of the peak - season demand recovery after the Spring Festival. Later, attention should be paid to the export and the start - up situation of the domestic smelting end [1][7] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Changes - Processing Fees - In December 2025, China's zinc concentrate imports were 462,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.87%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative imports were 5.324 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.59%. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee in January was 1200 - 1600 yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 600 yuan; the imported zinc concentrate processing fee was 49.92 US dollars per dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 29.12 US dollars. Last week, the domestic spot processing fee of zinc concentrate remained at 1300 - 1700 yuan per ton, and the weekly ring was flat; the spot processing fee of imported zinc concentrate was 33.25 US dollars per dry ton, a weekly decrease of 4.25 US dollars [2] Fundamental Changes - Supply - In December, the refined zinc output was 552,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.24% and a year - on - year increase of 6.85%. The annual refined zinc output was 6.8336 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.37%. Some domestic mines stopped production in winter, the output of domestic zinc concentrate decreased month - on - month, and the supplement of imported ore was limited. The profit of smelting enterprises without by - products was deeply in deficit, and some enterprises cut production passively. In January, many smelters in Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Guangdong and other regions started regular maintenance plans, involving a capacity of about 150,000 - 200,000 tons. The overall maintenance scale was larger than the resumption scale, and the start - up rate decreased. In December, the refined zinc import volume was 8700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 73.4%; the export volume was 27,200 tons, with a net export of 18,500 tons. The domestic Shanghai - London ratio improved slightly, the refined zinc export profit window closed, and the import loss narrowed [3] Fundamental Changes - Consumption - In December, the year - on - year growth rates of new construction and construction areas in the real estate industry were still negative, and the year - on - year growth rates of infrastructure investment and automobile production and sales decreased. Last week, the start - up rate of the galvanizing industry was about 54.39%, a month - on - month increase of 1.41 percentage points, but significantly lower than the high point in December 2025. The start - up rate of die - casting zinc alloy dropped to 49.90%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.83 percentage points, at a six - month low; the start - up rate of zinc oxide was 57.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.26 percentage points. Affected by environmental protection restrictions and the approaching Spring Festival in the northern region, some enterprises had early holidays, and the start - up rate dropped to 40 - 50%. The southern region was relatively stable, but the overall orders were insufficient. Affected by the relatively high zinc price and weak downstream demand, the procurement willingness of enterprises was low, and the pressure of finished product inventory increased [4] Fundamental Changes - Spot and Inventory - As of the week of January 21, the average price of 0 zinc ingots in the Yangtze River spot market was 24,200 yuan per ton. The spot price gradually declined this week, and the basis discount of 0 zinc in the Yangtze River spot to the main contract widened to - 150 yuan. The LME zinc spot maintained a discount of - 40.12 US dollars. As of the week of January 21, the LME inventory was 111,800 tons. The LME inventory continued to rise, and the current inventory had climbed to the average level in recent years. In China, the decline of zinc inventory stopped. As of January 19, the domestic social inventory was 112,100 tons, a month - on - month increase, above the average level in recent years. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 76,311 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2459 tons [6]

海关统计数据在线查询平台公布的数据显示，中国2025年12月精炼锌进口量为8,760.85吨，环比减少 51.94%，同比减少73.40%。 哈萨克斯坦是第一大进口来源地，当月从哈萨克斯坦进口精炼锌6,330.96吨，环比减少53.80%，同比下 降50.38%。 伊朗是第二大进口来源地，当月从伊朗进口精炼锌1,398.00吨，环比减少61.17%，同比下降43.04%。 以下为根据中国海关总署官网数据整理的2025年12月精炼锌进口分项数据一览表： 注：1、精炼锌包括含锌量≥99.995%的未锻轧非合金锌；99.99%≤含锌量＜99.995%的未锻轧非合金锌； 含锌量低于99.99%的未锻轧非合金锌。 2、进口/出口总量（总计）中亦包括上表未列出的部分原产地数据。 数据来源：海关总署 ...

Group 1 - The International Copper Study Group (ICSG) reports a surplus of 94,000 tons in the global refined copper market for November 2025, an increase from a surplus of 48,000 tons in October 2025 [1] - Cumulative surplus in the global refined copper market for the first eleven months of 2025 reached 206,000 tons, compared to 105,000 tons in the same period last year [1] - Global refined copper production in November was 2.37 million tons, while consumption was 2.28 million tons [1] Group 2 - The International Lead and Zinc Study Group (ILZSG) indicates that the global lead market surplus decreased from 29,200 tons in October to 8,900 tons in November [1] - For the first eleven months of 2025, the global refined zinc market surplus was 74,000 tons, more than double the surplus of 36,000 tons in the same period of 2024 [1]

乳目技 周敏波 Z0015979 | 价格及基差 | | --- | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 102510 | 103235 | -725.00 | -0.70% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 60 | 60 | 0.00 | | 元/肥 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 102155 | 103165 | -1010.00 | -0.98% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 20 | 5 | +15.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 102395 | 103110 | -715.00 | -0.69% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -55 | -65 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 50ae | 5537 | -440.71 | -7.96% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | 64.31 | 41.94 | +22.37 | - | 美元/肥 | | 进口盈 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai Zinc rose and then pulled back, with a weekly gain of 2.99% and an amplitude of 4.79%. It is expected that Shanghai Zinc will enter an adjustment period, and attention should be paid to the support at MA10, with the range between 23,700 and 24,300 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Zinc rose and then pulled back this week, with a weekly gain of 2.99% and an amplitude of 4.79%. The closing price of the main contract was 23,970 yuan/ton [4] - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, the US labor market shows no obvious pressure, the number of initial jobless claims last week increased slightly to 208,000, lower than the expected 212,000; US bond yields rebounded, and the US dollar reached a four - week high. Fundamentally, the import volume of upstream zinc ore is at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are reducing production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters to purchase domestic ores has increased, and the processing fees at home and abroad have both dropped significantly. The profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, and production is expected to continue to be restricted. Recently, the price of LME zinc has pulled back, the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are also weakening, while policy support in the automotive and other fields brings some bright spots. The downstream market mainly purchases on demand at low prices. Recently, the zinc price has risen rapidly, downstream purchases are scarce, the spot premium is high and stable, but domestic inventories have rebounded significantly; the accumulation of LME zinc inventories has slowed down, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, the position has decreased and the price has adjusted, the bullish sentiment has declined, and there is resistance at the upper edge of the upward channel [4] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Changes**: As of January 9, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai Zinc was 23,970 yuan/ton, up 695 yuan/ton or 2.99% from December 31, 2025; as of January 8, 2026, the closing price of LME zinc was 3,135 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars/ton or 0.29% from January 2, 2026 [7] - **Net Position Adjustment**: As of January 9, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc was 4,778 lots, a decrease of 638 lots from December 31, 2025. The open interest of Shanghai Zinc was 218,053 lots, an increase of 22,611 lots or 11.57% from December 31, 2025 [14] - **Price Spreads**: As of January 9, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was - 360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 710 yuan/ton from December 31, 2025; the lead - zinc futures price spread was 6,615 yuan/ton, an increase of 695 yuan/ton from December 31, 2025 [17] - **Spot Premiums**: As of January 9, 2026, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 24,010 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton or 2.78% from December 31, 2025. The spot premium was 105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from last week. As of January 8, 2026, the spread between the near - month and 3 - month LME zinc was - 42.57 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.89 US dollars/ton from December 31, 2025 [23] - **Inventory Changes**: As of January 8, 2026, the LME refined zinc inventory was 108,000 tons, an increase of 375 tons or 0.35% from December 31, 2025. As of December 31, 2025, the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 69,793 tons, a decrease of 3,170 tons or 4.34% from last week. As of January 8, 2026, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 113,300 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons or 4.04% from December 31, 2025 [26] 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In October 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.1009 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.87%. In November 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 519,018.96 tons, a month - on - month increase of 52.31% and a year - on - year increase of 14.06% [32] - **Supply Side** - **Global Supply Shortage**: In October 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.2187 million tons, an increase of 0.1084 million tons or 9.76% compared with the same period last year; the global refined zinc consumption was 1.2193 million tons, an increase of 0.0442 million tons or 3.76% compared with the same period last year; the global refined zinc gap was 0.06 million tons, compared with a gap of 0.0648 million tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report shows that the supply - demand balance of the global zinc market was - 35,700 tons in September 2024 [37][38] - **Expected Output Decline**: In November 2025, the zinc output was 654,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%; from January to November, the cumulative zinc output was 6.842 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5% [41] - **Increased Exports**: In November 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,229.93 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.15%; the export volume of refined zinc was 42,815.55 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8748.45% [45] - **Downstream** - **Galvanized Sheets**: From January to November 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 982,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.63%. In November 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.91%; the export volume was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [48][49] - **Real Estate**: From January to November 2025, the new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.58%; the housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.58%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 8.514519 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%; among them, personal mortgage loans were 1.178591 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1% [54][55] - **Infrastructure**: In November 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.9, a decrease of 0.52 from the previous month and a decrease of 0.61 from the same period last year. From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 0.13% year - on - year [60][61] - **Home Appliances**: In November 2025, the refrigerator output was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%; from January to November, the cumulative refrigerator output was 99.342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. The air - conditioner output was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%; from January to November, the cumulative air - conditioner output was 245.361 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [63] - **Automobiles**: In November 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3,428,998 units, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%; the automobile output was 3,531,579 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.76% [68]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The TC of domestic zinc mines continues to decline, and although the zinc ore import window is open due to the convergence of internal and external price ratios after overseas zinc ingot centralized warehousing, the purchasing demand of smelters remains strong, and TC is expected to decline slightly. The current zinc price is undervalued with positive domestic and overseas expectations [1][2] - The production of domestic zinc mines has entered the winter production - reduction cycle, with the output in November 2025 being 311,400 metal tons, 12,000 tons less than expected. The import volume of zinc ore in November 2025 was 519,019 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8%, and the cumulative import from January to November was 4,867,942 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.7%. As of the end of December, the total inventory of the seven major ports in China was 329,000 tons [2] - In December 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 552,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 6.85%. It is expected that the production in January will be 569,000 tons, but the actual output may be lower than expected due to the continuous decline of TC. The zinc ingot export window closed in mid - December, but it is still expected to be in a net export state in December. The comprehensive smelting of zinc ingots still faces a loss of about 1,000 yuan/ton. The inventory of zinc ingots has shown a downward trend [3] - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting, and zinc oxide have all increased slightly. In November 2025, the net export volume of galvanized strip was 1,188,531 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.60%, and the cumulative net export from January to November was 12,932,351 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.88% [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Zinc Concentrate - In December, the domestic zinc concentrate TC dropped 550 yuan/ton to 1,500 yuan/ton, and the imported zinc concentrate processing fee index decreased from $61.25/ton to $43.75/ton. The price negotiation for January is still ongoing, and it is expected to decline slightly [2] - In November 2025, the domestic zinc concentrate output was 311,400 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19,400 metal tons and a year - on - year increase of 5.24%, 12,000 tons less than expected. It is expected that the output in December will be 320,000 metal tons. The import volume of zinc ore in November 2025 was 519,019 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.8%, and the cumulative import from January to November was 4,867,942 tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.7% [2] - As of the end of December, the total inventory of the seven major ports in China was 329,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,000 tons. The raw material inventory of smelters was 388,000 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,000 tons, and the available days increased by 1.5 days to 22.3 days, but the available days of inventory are still low [2] Refined Zinc - According to SMM data, in December 2025, China's zinc ingot production was 552,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 43,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 6.85%. It is expected that the production in January will be 569,000 tons, but the actual output may be lower than expected [3] - Due to the opening of the export window, in November 2025, China's net export of zinc ingots was 24,500 tons, and the cumulative net import from January to November was 228,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43%. The zinc ingot export window closed in mid - December, and it is still expected to be in a net export state in December [3] - In terms of smelting profit, both domestic and imported TC have dropped significantly. Although the zinc price is oscillating strongly, the net smelting loss is still - 2,300 yuan/ton, and the comprehensive smelting still faces a loss of about 1,000 yuan/ton [3] - The latest inventory of zinc ingots in seven places is 106,000 tons, with a destocking of 38,000 tons in December. The consumption in the off - season at the end of the year shows resilience. Even after the export window is closed, the inventory still shows a downward trend. The warrant inventory is 42,419 tons, the bonded area inventory is 3,300 tons, and the latest LME inventory is 107,625 tons, with a cumulative inventory increase of more than 50,000 tons in December [3] Consumption End - The operating rate of galvanizing is 57.0%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%; the operating rate of die - casting is 30.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%; the operating rate of zinc oxide is 42.9%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3% [4] - In November 2025, the net export volume of galvanized strip was 1,188,531 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.53% and a year - on - year increase of 13.60%. The cumulative net export from January to November was 12,932,351 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.88% [5]