瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.09」 沪锌市场周报 采需平淡库存累增 预计锌价震荡调整 研究员： 王福辉 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 行情回顾：本周沪锌主力冲高回调，周线涨跌幅为2.99%，振幅4.79%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价23970元 /吨。 行情展望：宏观面，美国劳动力市场未显明显压力，上周首次申请失业救济人数环比微增至20.8万，低于 预期21.2万；美债收益率反弹、美元四周新高。基本面，上游锌矿进口量高位，但国内锌矿年末减产；国 内炼厂采购国产矿竞争加大，国内外加工费均明显下跌，国内炼厂利润收缩，预计产量将继续受限。不过 近期伦锌价格回调，沪伦比值回升，出口窗口存在重新关闭可能。需求端，下游市场逐步转向淡季，地产 板块构成拖累，基建、家电板块也呈现走弱，而汽车等领域政策支持带来部分亮点。下游市场以逢低按需 采购为主，近期锌价快速走高，下游采购寡淡，现货升水偏高持稳，但国内库存回升明显；LME ...

新能源及有色金属月报 | 2026-01-04 核心观点 锌精矿 12月份国产锌矿TC下滑550元/吨至1500元/吨；进口锌矿加工费指数从61.25美元/吨降至43.75美元/吨。虽然随着海 外锌锭集中交仓内外比价收敛，使得锌矿进口窗口打开，但冶炼厂存在冬储需求，采购需求不减，锌矿TC仍然不 改下跌趋势，目前对1月份的价格谈判仍在进行中，预计仍有小幅下滑的可能。 TC不改下滑趋势锌价估值偏低 策略摘要 成本方面，国产矿进入季节性停产周期，虽然随着海外集中交仓内外比价的回归，使得矿端进口窗口打开，但整 体依旧不改矿端TC下滑的趋势，冶炼厂在经历冬储采购后，原料库存储备有所提高，但可用天数并不高，采购积 极性依旧不减，短期难以看到TC上涨趋势，预计仍有小幅下降空间。冶炼利润方面，虽然锌价、硫酸及白银价格 持续走强，但受限于TC持续回落，综合冶炼依旧面临亏损。供给端，12月供给同比增速已经下滑至5%，1月份产 量仍存在不及预期的可能性，供给端压力缓解，当前市场已经出现火烧云产品，后期供应端主要关注火烧云投产 速度。消费方面，消费淡季表现出韧性，高频数据并未出现下滑，出口窗口关闭之后社会库存重心依旧在回落， 出口依 ...

| | | 沪锌产业日报 2025-12-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 23255 | 85 02-03月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -30 | 15 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 3086.5 | -10 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 197429 | -2988 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 1795 | 2441 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 0 | 0 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 72963 | -3054 LME库存(日,吨) | 106875 | 7900 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 23440 | 240 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 23490 | 260 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 185 | 155 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -28.26 | 0.88 | | | 昆明 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Overseas inventory is structurally imbalanced, and terminal demand is significantly suppressed. The copper price continued to rise yesterday, with short - term price fluctuations intensifying. - The high copper price is mainly driven by supply and inventory structural imbalances and Fed's actions. Although the 2026 long - term TC is 0, smelters can maintain cash - flow profit if by - product profits are high enough. - SMM expects China's electrolytic copper production to rise in December, with sufficient spot supply. High prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to a large discount in spot this week, inventory accumulation, and weakened downstream开工率 and order release. - The upward drivers are further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; the downward driver is weak demand. The short - term price is volatile, and the main contract should focus on the 95,500 support level [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures maintained a low - level oscillation. The fundamental pattern of oversupply has not improved. The supply is rigid, and the whole - industry chain inventory has reached a new high, forming a self - strengthening mechanism. The cost support level is moving down. Alumina prices are expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2,450 - 2,650 yuan/ton. - Electrolytic aluminum futures maintained a high - level oscillation. The macro environment is favorable, but the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is accumulating. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,600 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market showed a strong - oscillation trend. The core contradiction is the game between strong cost support and weakening demand. - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the procurement cost is high. The high aluminum price has suppressed the purchasing willingness of downstream die - casting enterprises. - The social inventory has been decreasing slightly for several weeks. The ADC12 price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with the main contract reference range of 20,800 - 21,600 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The TC has stopped falling and stabilized, and the terminal demand is weak. The zinc price is oscillating weakly. - Domestic zinc ore production has decreased in November, and the import window has opened. The smelter has reduced production due to profit pressure. - The downstream processing industry's开工率 is stable. The social inventory has been decreasing, but the overall demand is general at the end of the year. The LME inventory has increased significantly, and the squeeze - out risk has eased. The main contract should focus on the 22,850 - 22,950 support level [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, and the export volume of Indonesia has increased significantly in November. - The tin - soldering enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more restricted. - The supply in Myanmar and Indonesia shows improvement signs. The previous long positions should be gradually closed, and subsequent macro and supply - side recovery should be monitored [11]. Nickel - The nickel futures price fell slightly. The market is trading around the expectation of tightened nickel ore supply. - The domestic spot nickel price has decreased, and the spot trading is average. The supply of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel is still tight. - The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has decreased, and the Indonesian ore production target in 2026 has been significantly reduced. The price of nickel iron has strong bottom support. - The terminal demand is weak, and the overseas inventory accumulation has slowed down, while the domestic social inventory pressure has increased. The short - term price is expected to oscillate and recover, with the main contract reference range of 123,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel futures price oscillated narrowly. The spot market's inquiry atmosphere has cooled, and the trading volume is average. - The Fed has cut interest rates, and the domestic central bank has injected liquidity. The market expects tightened nickel ore supply. - The supply is at a relatively high level, but some enterprises may conduct annual maintenance at the end of the year. The demand is in the off - season, and the social inventory is decreasing but still at a high level. - The short - term market sentiment has improved, but the supply - demand game continues. The price is expected to oscillate and adjust, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - [missing in the report] [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated widely. The main contract LC2605 rose 0.44% to 123,520. - The recent news is abundant. Some production lines of Hunan Yueneng will be under maintenance in January, and Wanrun New Energy will reduce production for maintenance. - The current fundamentals show both supply and demand growth. The production is expected to increase in December, and the demand maintains certain resilience. The inventory has decreased significantly. The short - term price is supported by the tight - balance fundamentals, but there is limited new driving force [16]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon spot price stabilized, and the futures price oscillated and recovered after a low opening. - The supply and demand are both decreasing steadily. The expectation of industrial silicon production reduction is rising. Multiple enterprises plan to shut down furnaces for maintenance. - The demand from polysilicon is expected to decrease significantly in January. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the main price range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon spot price stabilized, and the futures price rose significantly. - The exchange has introduced cooling measures. Upstream enterprises hope to drive up the whole - industry chain price, and downstream enterprises have raised their quotes, but profits are still under pressure. - The demand in the first quarter has no bright spots. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the futures price is still at a large premium to the spot. Attention should be paid to production - reduction implementation and price - fall pressure [19]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 94,760 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (0.07%); the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was - 330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 21,980 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton ( - 0.23%); the SMM A00 aluminum premium was - 170 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM ADC12 was at 21,950 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 23,080 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan/ton ( - 0.77%); the premium was 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [9]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin was at 332,750 yuan/ton, down 3,600 yuan/ton ( - 1.07%); the LME 0 - 3 premium was 130 US dollars/ton, up 65 US dollars/ton (100%) [11]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 127,400 yuan/ton, down 2,800 yuan/ton ( - 2.15%); the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 7,250 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton (7.41%) [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) was at 13,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton ( - 0.38%) [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 104,900 yuan/ton, up 3,400 yuan/ton (3.35%) [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Huale Tongyang SI5530 industrial silicon was at 9,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [18]. - **Polysilicon**: N - type polycrystalline silicon (average price) was at 52,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [19]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In November, electrolytic copper production was 110.31 million tons, up 1.15 million tons (1.05%); imports were 27.11 million tons, down 1.10 million tons ( - 3.90%) [1]. - **Aluminum**: In November, alumina production was 743.94 million tons, down 34.6 million tons ( - 4.44%); domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 363.66 million tons, down 10.6 million tons ( - 2.82%) [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In November, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 68.20 million tons, up 3.7 million tons (5.74%); the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 30.27 million tons, up 1.7 million tons (5.84%) [5]. - **Zinc**: In November, refined zinc production was 59.52 million tons, down 2.20 million tons ( - 3.56%); imports were 1.82 million tons, down 0.06 million tons ( - 3.22%) [9]. - **Tin**: In October, tin ore imports were 11,632 tons, up 2,918 tons (33.49%); SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, up 5,580 tons (53.09%) [11]. - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production in [month not clear] was 33,342 tons, down 3,453 tons ( - 9.38%); imports were 9,741 tons, down 18,626 tons ( - 65.66%) [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) in [month not clear] was 178.70 million tons, down 1.30 million tons ( - 0.72%); Indonesia's was 42.35 million tons, up 0.15 million tons (0.36%) [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In November, lithium carbonate production was 95,350 tons, up 3,090 tons (3.35%); demand was 133,451 tons, up 6,490 tons (5.11%) [16]. - **Industrial Silicon**: National industrial silicon production in [month not clear] was 40.17 million tons, down 5.05 million tons ( - 11.17%); Xinjiang's was 23.76 million tons, up 0.20 million tons (0.83%) [18]. - **Polysilicon**: In [month not clear], polysilicon production was 11.46 million tons, down 1.94 million tons ( - 14.48%); imports were 0.11 million tons, down 0.04 million tons ( - 27.05%) [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai zinc will fluctuate and adjust, with support at 22,900 yuan/ton and resistance at 23,400 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated strongly, with a weekly increase of 0.46% and an amplitude of 1.78%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 23,170 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroscopically, the US has ended the previous administration's trade investigation on Chinese chips and will not impose additional tariffs on Chinese chips for the next 18 months. Fundamentally, upstream zinc ore imports have declined, and domestic smelters' production is expected to decrease significantly. The export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually entering the off - season, with the real - estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home - appliance sectors weakening, while the automobile and other sectors have some policy - supported highlights. Domestic inventories continue to decline, while LME zinc inventories have increased significantly [5]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Ratio**: As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 23,170 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton or 0.46% from December 19, 2025. As of December 24, 2025, the closing price of LME zinc was 3,086.5 US dollars/ton, up 13 US dollars/ton or 0.42% from December 18, 2025. The Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded [10]. - **Net Position and Open Interest**: As of December 26, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 5,746 lots, an increase of 678 lots from December 19, 2025. The open interest was 200,417 lots, an increase of 6,815 lots or 3.52% from December 19, 2025 [16]. - **Price Spreads**: As of December 26, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 765 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton from December 19, 2025. The lead - zinc futures spread was 5,615 yuan/ton, a decrease of 570 yuan/ton from December 19, 2025 [19]. - **Spot Premiums**: As of December 26, 2025, the spot price of 0 zinc ingots was 23,230 yuan/ton, unchanged from December 19, 2025. The spot premium was 55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week. As of December 24, 2025, the LME zinc near - month to 3 - month spread was - 28.26 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.69 US dollars/ton from December 17, 2025 [25][26]. - **Inventories**: As of December 24, 2025, LME refined zinc inventories were 106,875 tons, an increase of 9,175 tons or 9.39% from December 17, 2025. As of December 19, 2025, SHFE refined zinc inventories were 76,017 tons, a decrease of 4,560 tons or 5.66% from last week. As of December 25, 2025, domestic refined zinc social inventories were 111,400 tons, a decrease of 7,300 tons or 6.15% from December 18, 2025 [29]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: In October 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.1009 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.21% and a year - on - year increase of 4.87%. In November 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 519,018.96 tons, a month - on - month increase of 52.31% and a year - on - year increase of 14.06% [35]. - **Supply - Side**: - **Global Supply Gap**: In October 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.2187 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 108,400 tons or 9.76%. Consumption was 1.2193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44,200 tons or 3.76%. The global refined zinc gap was 600 tons, compared to a gap of 64,800 tons in the same period last year. The WBMS reported a global zinc market supply - demand balance of - 35,700 tons in September 2024 [40][41]. - **Production Forecast**: In November 2025, zinc production was 654,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.3%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative zinc output was 6.842 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. However, production is expected to decline [44]. - **Export Window**: In November 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,229.93 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 48.15%. The export volume was 42,815.55 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8748.45% [47]. - **Downstream**: - **Galvanized Sheets**: From January to November 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 942,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.06%. In November 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 36,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.91%. The export volume was 317,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% [50][51]. - **Real Estate**: From January to November 2025, the new housing construction area was 534.567 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.58%. The housing completion area was 394.5393 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 17.58%. The funds in place of real - estate development enterprises were 8.514519 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. Personal mortgage loans were 1.1786 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1% [56][57]. - **Infrastructure**: In November 2025, the real - estate development climate index was 91.9, a decrease of 0.52 from last month and 0.61 from the same period last year. From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 0.13% year - on - year [62][63]. - **Home Appliances**: In November 2025, the refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative refrigerator production was 99.342 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.2%. In November 2025, the air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 245.361 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% [65]. - **Automobiles**: In November 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 3,428,998 units, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%. The automobile production volume was 3,531,579 units, a year - on - year increase of 2.76% [70].

| 后在 | 2025年11月(吨) | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 哈萨克斯坦 | 13.703.64 | -15.03% | -21.20% | | 伊朗 | 3.600.20 | 259.93% | 105.42% | | 澳大利亚 | 421.36 | -47.74% | -82.04% | | 草玉 | 120.50 | 184.39% | -98.28% | | 西班牙 | 119.41 | -33.41% | -33.15% | | 泰国 | 76.97 | 188.89% | -94.51% | | 加拿大 | 69.76 | 146.16% | -48.41% | | 美国 | 67.73 | -3.24% | | | 秘鲁 | 50.36 | 2.13% | -97.66% | | 总计 | 18,229.93 | -3.22% | -48.15% | 数据来源：海关总署 注：1、精炼锌包括含锌量≥99.995%的未锻轧非合金锌；99.99%≤含锌量＜99.995%的未锻轧非合金锌； 含锌量低于99.99%的未锻轧非合金锌。 2、进口/出口总 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The zinc market is currently influenced by a mix of bullish and bearish factors, causing the Shanghai zinc price to fluctuate widely. In the short term, the expected reduction in domestic smelter production and the continuous decline in domestic social inventories support the zinc price. However, the weakening consumption and continuous inventory build - up overseas put pressure on the LME zinc price, which in turn affects the Shanghai zinc price. Traders should focus on the start - up of domestic smelters and macro factors [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy 3.1.1 Trading Logic - **Supply - side**: In the mining sector, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees have stabilized. The import window for zinc concentrate has reopened, and the price difference between imported and domestic zinc concentrates has narrowed, reducing the smelters' enthusiasm for domestic zinc concentrates. The trading volume of imported zinc ore has been light recently. On the smelting side, the reduction in zinc concentrate processing fees and lower zinc prices have shrunk the profits of most domestic smelters, and there is an expected further increase in the reduction of domestic refined zinc production in December [5]. - **Demand - side**: The operating rate of galvanized enterprises has continued to decline, while the operating rates of die - casting and zinc oxide enterprises are acceptable. Domestic refined zinc consumption has gradually weakened as the consumption season approaches [5]. - **Inventory**: As of December 18, the total zinc ingot inventory in seven major regions monitored by SMM was 122,200 tons, a decrease of 6,100 tons from December 11 and 3,500 tons from December 15. The continuous decline in domestic inventories provides some support for the zinc price [5]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy - **Single - side trading**: The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely. - **Arbitrage trading**: It is recommended to wait and see [5]. 3.2 Market Data - The report mentions aspects such as spot premiums, basis in major consumption areas, absolute prices, monthly spreads, trading volume, and open interest of Shanghai zinc, as well as social inventories, bonded area inventories, LME inventories, LME cancelled warrant ratios, and LME inventory distribution by region, but no specific numerical analysis is provided [7][13][16][17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - **Global and Domestic Production**: From January to October 2025, global zinc concentrate production was 10.4892 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 737,600 tons or 7.56%. Overseas zinc concentrate production was 7.0222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 532,600 tons or 8.21%, and Chinese zinc concentrate production was 3.467 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 205,000 tons or 6.28%. In November, domestic zinc concentrate production was 311,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.86% and a year - on - year increase of 5.24%. It is expected that December production will increase by 2.76% month - on - month to 320,000 tons [28]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: As of November, domestic smelter raw material inventory increased by 0.48 days year - on - year to 20.8 days, but has been decreasing month by month recently. The inventory of zinc concentrates in major domestic ports increased by 12,000 tons month - on - month to 312,000 tons [28][43]. 3.3.2 Zinc Ore Import - **Import Volume**: In October 2025, the import volume of zinc concentrates was 340,900 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month decrease of 32.56% (164,500 physical tons) and a year - on - year increase of 2.97%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume of zinc concentrates was 4.3489 million tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 36.59%. In November, the import volume is expected to recover [30]. - **Import Source**: In October 2025, the top three import sources were Peru (95,700 physical tons, accounting for 28.1%), Australia (49,800 physical tons, accounting for 14.6%), and Russia (32,400 physical tons, accounting for 9.5%) [30]. 3.3.3 Domestic Ore Supply - Overall, domestic ore supply has decreased, and imported zinc concentrates are expected to decline. It is expected that the supply of domestic zinc concentrates in November may decrease [42]. 3.3.4 Zinc Ore Processing Fees - In December, the monthly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates was 2,000 yuan/ton. On December 19, the weekly processing fee for domestic Zn50 zinc concentrates was 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index was adjusted down by 0.43 US dollars/dry ton to 50.13 US dollars/dry ton [47]. 3.3.5 Global Refined Zinc Production - From January to October 2025, global refined zinc production was 11.5147 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 159,500 tons or 1.4%; consumption was 11.3905 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 102,900 tons or 0.91%. There was a cumulative surplus of 124,200 tons. In October, global refined zinc production was 1.2187 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.76%, and demand was 1.2193 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.76%, with a shortage of 600 tons [51]. 3.3.6 Domestic Refined Zinc Supply - **Smelter Operating Rate**: In November, the operating rate of domestic refined zinc enterprises was 87.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.06%. Large - scale enterprises had an operating rate of 91.56%, a month - on - month increase of 0.55%; medium - scale enterprises had an operating rate of 85.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%; small - scale enterprises had an operating rate of 76.05%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.81% [54]. - **Production Volume**: In November, SMM's domestic refined zinc production was 595,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.56% and a year - on - year increase of 16.75%. It is expected that December production will be 570,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.08% and a year - on - year increase of 10.49% [55]. 3.3.7 Zinc Ingot Import and Export - **Import**: In October 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 18,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 67.39%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 277,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 26.63%. - **Export**: In October, the export volume of refined zinc was 8,500 tons, with a net import of 10,300 tons. The export volume is expected to increase in December, which will alleviate the domestic surplus situation to some extent [58][59]. 3.3.8 Downstream Consumption - **Primary Processing**: The operating rate of galvanized enterprises has continued to decline, while the operating rates of die - casting and zinc oxide enterprises are acceptable. The report also mentions the raw material and finished product inventories of primary processing enterprises, but no specific data is provided [5][66][67]. - **End - use Industries**: The report covers real - estate construction data, infrastructure investment, domestic automobile production, and domestic white - goods production, but specific numerical analysis is not provided [73][84][94][97].

2025 年 12 月 19 日 预期分化，把握确定性 ---2026 年锌期货年度行情展望 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王宗源(联系人) 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 报告导读： 货 研 究 所 我们的观点：基于对全球锌供需的判断，2026 年锌价或破而后立，关注预期扭转下内外补库共振的开启。我们认 为供应侧矛盾将继续主导价格，消费空间走阔决定价格上方空间。当下已进入锌矿扩产尾声，叠加生产扰动增加，锌 矿增量空间相对有限，锌矿紧平衡或成为常态，也意味着 TC 的持续承压，明年 TC 上行空间或低于今年，锌价具备上 浮的弹性。关注一季度 TC BM 博弈阶段的供应端扰动，不排除出现超预期减产，或为价格注入上行催化。美联储技术 性扩表与降息周期节奏，国内 3 月份会议前的宏观预期也都深刻影响锌价。随着原料库存回归常态化，同时 TC 回升 带来炼厂利润修复，锌锭供应压力逐步体现，价格或出现阶段性调整。需要注意的是，明年锌的基本面相对脆弱，锌 元素仅有小幅过剩，一旦供应发生意外扰动，锌元素过剩预期极易发生扭转， ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22970 | -60 01-02月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -5 | 10 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 3035 | -60 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 194756 | -12790 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 2722 | -4540 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 0 | 0 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 80577 | -11339 LME库存(日,吨) | 95550 | 31075 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 23020 | -160 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 22750 | -60 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 50 | -100 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -16.47 | 15.14 | | | 昆明50%锌精矿到厂价(日,元/吨) | 20 ...

12月上半月，锌价逐步抬升，矿端边际收紧使得锌矿加工费快速下移，且受锌精矿供应偏紧提振，沪锌 主力合约最高涨至23730元／吨， LME期锌最高涨至3220美元／吨附近。 美联储12月如期降息25个基点，并启动短期国债购买计划，预计通胀将在明年一季度见顶，美元指数偏 弱运行，整体略利多锌价。日本央行本周加息概率较高，可能引发市场情绪变化。上周五夜盘，前期涨 幅较大的白银、铜、铝期价自高位回落，对锌价有所拖累。 锌矿加工费降至低位 相关数据显示，今年1—9月全球锌矿累计产量936.1万吨，增加6万吨，同比增加7.5%。国内11月锌精矿 产量31.14万吨，较10月下滑1.94万吨，同比增加5.2%；1—11月累计产量336.9万吨，同比减少1万吨， 降幅为1.7%。 近期，北方部分矿山已进入冬季减产状态，国产矿供应持续收紧。进口端，我国10月锌矿进口34.1万 吨，环比大降32.5%，同比增长3.3%，内外比价不佳，锌矿进口亏损较大，进口量缩减，进口主要来源 于秘鲁、澳大利亚和俄罗斯；1—10月累计进口434.89万吨，同比增长37.3%。 由于锌矿加工费快速走低，冶炼厂生产压力明显增大。12月以来，仍有部分炼 ...