今日沪铝震荡偏强,华东现货升水20元。铝锭社库较上周四增加2万吨，铝棒增加0.9万吨。下游开工季节性回 升，年内库存大概率处于偏低水平，但累库拐点尚未明确，沪铝短期维持震荡，上方20800-21000元区域仍存阻 力。铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波动，保太现货报价20100元。废铝货源偏紧，税率政策调整预期增加企业成本，现货 与沪铝跨品种价差存在进一步收窄空间。氧化铝运行产能处于历史高位，行业库存和上期所仓单均持续上升。 供应过刺逐渐显现,各地现货指数阴跌,今日河南有现货成交价3200元,氧化铝弱势震荡,3000元位置暂具备 支撑。 【锌】 鲍威尔放鸽,美9月降息预期升温,宏观情绪上修。基本面延续供增需弱,盘面反弹,下游对高价锌锭接受度不 足。现货贴水盘面，持货商倾向交仓，隐性库存不断显性化,SMM锌社库走高至13.85万吨。基本面和宏观共振 不足，盘面以空头减仓为主,多头入场偏谨慎。海内外矿增量如期兑现,进口矿TC继续走升，沪锌中线上仍以 反弹承压对待,倾向等待2.35万元/吨上方高空机会。 | | 操作评级 | 2025年08月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | なな女 | 肖静 首席分 ...

交易行情热点 热点一：原油走势震荡，后市分歧加剧 本周原油价格整体呈现宽幅震荡态势，未延续此前偏弱走势。布伦特原油本周上涨2.51%，收67.79美 元/桶；美原油上涨1.00%，收63.77美元/桶。 油价反弹受多空因素交织影响。在供应方面，OPEC月报数据显示，OPEC+7月份石油日产量增加了26.3 万桶，达到2754万桶，说明该组织逐步释放增产的产能，但仍旧低于增产计划，这在一定程度上缓解了 市场的供应担忧情绪。而据EIA数据，截至8月15日当周美国国内原油产量环比增加，产量有触底反弹 的态势，又令原油供应压力加大。 在需求方面，美国EIA原油库存超预期下降，需求端在短期内仍存在季节性改善的迹象，对油价形成支 撑；汽油总产量引申需求环比小幅回升，但整体处于近几年平均值附近，表明炼厂提负带动原油消费， 但是成品油消费增速有待改善。中国地炼预计在9月初迎来开工率爬坡周期，一定程度上可带动原油消 费。 具体来看，8月20日晚间，美国EIA数据显示，美国截至8月15日当周原油库存减少601.4万桶，预期为减 少175.9万桶，较过去五年均值低了5.07%；汽油库存减少272万桶，预期为减少91.5万桶；精炼油 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures experienced mixed performance from August 18 to August 22, with caustic soda, fuel oil, and crude oil leading gains, while lithium carbonate, coking coal, and the European shipping index saw declines [1] - In the energy and chemical sector, fuel oil rose by 2.51%, crude oil increased by 1.13%, while lithium carbonate fell by 9.14% [1] - The black coal sector saw coking coal drop by 5.53%, while basic metals and agricultural products experienced slight fluctuations [1] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - Brent crude oil prices increased by 2.51% to $67.79 per barrel, while WTI crude oil rose by 1.00% to $63.77 per barrel, indicating a wide fluctuation in oil prices [2] - OPEC+ reported a production increase of 263,000 barrels per day in July, reaching 27.54 million barrels per day, easing some supply concerns [2][3] - U.S. EIA data showed a significant drop in crude oil inventories by 6.014 million barrels, exceeding expectations, which provided support for oil prices [3] Group 3: Palm Oil Market Insights - Palm oil prices saw a weekly increase of 1.40%, closing at 9,592 yuan per ton, driven by tightening supply-demand dynamics [5] - Indonesia's palm oil exports surged by 35.4% in June, reaching 3.61 million tons, despite an increase in production [5][6] - Malaysia's palm oil production growth has slowed significantly since August, with exports increasing by only 13.61% compared to the previous month [6] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Developments - China's fiscal revenue for the first seven months of 2025 reached 1.35839 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, with notable growth in tax revenues [7][8] - Government expenditure during the same period totaled 1.60737 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.4% increase year-on-year, with a focus on social welfare and health spending [8][9] - The fiscal outlook indicates a continued emphasis on supporting economic stability through targeted spending and potential adjustments in land sales revenue [9] Group 5: U.S. Federal Reserve Policy Signals - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts in the coming months, despite ongoing inflation risks [10][11] - Powell emphasized the need to balance maximum employment with price stability, indicating a shift in policy focus towards employment protection [12] - Analysts suggest that the Fed may initiate rate cuts in September, but the pace will be cautious due to inflation uncertainties [12]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.22」 沪锌市场周报 逢低采买小幅去库 预计锌价震荡企稳 研究员： 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 行情回顾：本周沪锌主力震荡下跌，周线涨跌幅为-1.02%，振幅1.29%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价 22275元/吨。 行情展望：宏观面，美国8月制造业PMI初值53.3，意外创三年多新高，通胀压力加剧。工信部等部 门：进一步规范光伏产业竞争秩序，遏制低价无序竞争。基本面，国内外锌矿进口量上升，锌矿加 工费持续上升，叠加硫酸价格上涨明显，冶炼厂利润进一步修复，生产积极性增加；各地新增产能 陆续释放，叠加前期检修产能复产，供应增长有所加快。目前进口亏损继续扩大，进口锌流入量下 降。需求端，下游处于进入需求淡季，加工企业开工率同比有所下降。近期锌价下跌，下游逢低按 需采购为主，但整体成交有所改善，国内社库小幅下降，现货升水持稳；海外LME库存下降明显， LME现货升水下调，对国 ...

8月22日，国内期市有色金属板块跌多涨少，碳酸锂主力跌逾4%。截止目前，碳酸锂主力下跌4.12%， 报79200.00元/吨；工业硅主力上涨0.58%，报8645.00元/吨；多晶硅主力下跌1.42%，报51295.00元/吨； 沪锡主力下跌0.62%，报266000.00元/吨。 8月22日有色金属期货价格行情 | 合约名称 | 开盘价 | 昨收价 | 昨结价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 氧化铝主力 | 3115.00 | 3124.00 | 3149.00 | | 碳酸锂主力 | 82500.00 | 82760.00 | 82600.00 | | 沪铜主力 | 78680.00 | 78540.00 | 78600.00 | | 国际铜主力 | 69640.00 | 69620.00 | 69700.00 | | 沪铝主力 | 20590.00 | 20590.00 | 20600.00 | | 铝合金主力 | 20130.00 | 20125.00 | 20130.00 | | 沪铅主力 | 16755.00 | 16745.00 | 16760.00 | | 沪镍主力 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish/bearish sentiment with limited trading operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, representing a more distinct bullish/bearish trend and a suitable investment chance [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★, showing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★★★, meaning a more obvious bullish/bearish trend and a proper investment option [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, denoting a slightly bullish/bearish inclination with limited market operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, implying a slightly bullish/bearish judgment with limited trading feasibility on the market [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, indicating a distinct bullish/bearish trend and a relatively good investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish/bearish tendency with limited market operability [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a current appropriate investment chance [1] Report's Core View - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is complex, with different metals showing various trends such as bullish, bearish, and oscillatory. Each metal's market is influenced by factors like supply - demand fundamentals, policy expectations, and inventory levels [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper oscillated downward, with the weighted index trading below the MA60 moving average. The spot copper price was 78,800 yuan, and the Shanghai premium shrank to 160 yuan. Hold short positions above 79,000 yuan [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. The social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased by 11,000 tons and 8,000 tons respectively compared to Monday. It is expected to oscillate between 20,300 - 21,000 yuan in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price rising by 100 yuan to 20,000 yuan. Alumina was in a weak oscillation, with support at 3,000 yuan [3] Zinc - Due to the supply - increase and demand - weak fundamentals, Shanghai zinc oscillated weakly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is the long - term strategy [4] Aluminum (again) - Aluminum price decline deepened the loss of recycled aluminum, expanding the reduction and suspension of production areas, which supported the market. However, the terminal consumption did not improve, and the rebound momentum was insufficient. It is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel was in the middle - late stage of a rebound, and it is recommended to actively enter short positions. The stainless - steel social inventory decreased for six consecutive times, but there were still uncertainties in the market [7] Tin - Shanghai tin decreased in the afternoon session. The spot tin price dropped to 266,800 yuan. The market was divided, with a strong fundamental on one hand and concerns about medium - long - term demand on the other. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated. The market was active. The futures price was strong, and it is expected to oscillate. Risk control is necessary [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures first rose significantly and then retraced part of the gains. The fundamentals showed a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with limited improvement space. The current market is in an oscillatory pattern and may face a correction if policy expectations cool down [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. The N - type re -投料 price increased to 49,000 yuan/ton. The market is in an oscillatory adjustment stage supported by policy expectations [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and others. It provides market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal. Overall, due to factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed policies, and supply - demand fundamentals, the market is in a state of flux, and different trading strategies are recommended for different metals, mainly including temporary observation, waiting for new entry opportunities, and specific operations like high - selling and low - buying in certain ranges [2][6][11]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.5% at $3316.035 per ounce, London silver down 1.8% at $37.32 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index rose 0.1% to 98.26, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell slightly to 4.3038%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose 0.03% to 7.183 [2]. - **Important Information**: There are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine leaders' summit, and the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates is high. For example, in September, the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 86.1% [2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The unexpected rise in US PPI and strong retail data have dampened the market's expectations of interest rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions are expected to ease. However, the US may face "stagflation - like" situation, so it's advisable to wait and see for new entry opportunities [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [2][4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,550 yuan per ton, down 0.23%. The LME copper closed at $9,684.5 per ton, down 0.69%. The LME inventory decreased by 450 tons to 155,100 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 873 tons to 269,900 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: Two US copper manufacturers raised prices by 5%, and First Quantum Mining started a $1.25 - billion expansion project in Zambia [6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The ore supply shortage has been temporarily alleviated, the LME inventory increase has slowed down, and domestic imports may increase, putting pressure on prices. Downstream demand shows different trends, with improved acceptance of prices [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily observe in unilateral, arbitrage, and option trading [4][10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2509 contract fell to 3,087 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed declines or remained flat [11]. - **Important Information**: An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and some alumina enterprises have maintenance plans. Alumina exports and ore imports increased [11][12]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market speculation has cooled, and the alumina market is in a state of oversupply. However, short - term supply is not significantly excessive due to maintenance plans [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may be in a high - level consolidation in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [13][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell to 20,500 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [17]. - **Important Information**: The US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list, and there are considerations for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit. Aluminum inventory remained stable [17][19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The resolution of the Russia - Ukraine issue may lead to changes in sanctions on Russian aluminum. The domestic inventory pressure has decreased, and the downstream has shown more active inventory - building [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: In unilateral trading, the price may decline with the external market; in arbitrage, short - term long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum, and exit if the talks are not successful; observe in option trading [21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell to 20,055 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly flat or slightly increased [24]. - **Important Information**: Four - ministry policy affects the recycled aluminum industry, and the industry's profit has improved in July. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased [24][25]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some factories have reduced production. The demand from downstream die - casting enterprises is weak [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may decline with aluminum prices in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [26]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc fell 0.5% to $2,770 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2510 fell 0.29% to 22,180 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was mainly among traders [28]. - **Important Information**: A zinc smelter in the northwest has a maintenance plan, and Tianjin has transportation restrictions [28]. - **Logical Analysis**: The domestic supply has increased, the terminal consumption is weak, and the inventory has been accumulating, putting pressure on prices [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold profitable short positions in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead fell 0.33% to $1,974 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2510 fell 0.56% to 16,720 yuan per ton. The spot market trading was light [32][34]. - **Important Information**: A small - scale recycled lead smelter in the south plans to resume production [35]. - **Logical Analysis**: The consumption has not improved significantly, but the cost provides some support for the price [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try high - selling and low - buying within a range in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage and option trading [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel fell to $15,060 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel NI2510 fell to 120,320 yuan per ton. The spot premiums of different types of nickel changed [38]. - **Important Information**: There are plans for a Russia - Ukraine - US leaders' summit [38]. - **Logical Analysis**: No detailed logical analysis provided in the text. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options [40]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell to 12,825 yuan per ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A German company proposed a tariff exemption for SMEs' steel imports, and the US expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list. A nickel - iron factory sold high - nickel iron at a certain price [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: Global economic prospects, tariff policies, and Fed decisions affect the market. The price is expected to fluctuate widely due to lack of demand drive and cost support [43][44]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may fluctuate widely in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading [45]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, down 1.26%. Most spot prices remained stable [47]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [47]. - **Logical Analysis**: The core contradiction lies in market sentiment and fundamental change expectations. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - and medium - term [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: The futures price may decline during the day; consider reverse arbitrage for the 11th and 12th contracts [50]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract closed at 52,260 yuan per ton, down 0.53%. The spot prices were stable and showed a slight increase [52]. - **Important Information**: Six - department held a photovoltaic industry symposium [52]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply is in excess in August, but the cost provides support. The price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and there may be future policy benefits [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips within a certain price range in unilateral trading; conduct positive arbitrage for the 2511 and 2512 contracts; sell out - of - the - money put options [53]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 fell to 87,540 yuan per ton. The spot prices of electric and industrial carbonates increased [55]. - **Important Information**: There are developments in lithium - battery raw material imports, corporate production resumptions, and expansions. The US included lithium in the key enforcement industries [55]. - **Logical Analysis**: The spot market supply is tight, and the supply - demand gap may widen in September, supporting the price. The price may decline due to market sentiment and then rise again [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips in unilateral trading; observe in arbitrage trading; sell out - of - the - money put options for the 2511 contract [56]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2509 closed at 268,850 yuan per ton, up 0.88%. The spot prices adjusted downwards, and the trading was not active [58]. - **Important Information**: Peru and Indonesia released export data of tin [58][59]. - **Logical Analysis**: The LME tin inventory decreased, and the tin ore supply is tight. The industry is in a state of tight balance, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may continue to fluctuate in unilateral trading; observe in option trading [59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro - Economy**: China's State Council Premier Li Qiang emphasizes enhancing macro - policy implementation efficiency, stabilizing market expectations, and boosting consumption and investment. The global financial market is waiting for the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. In the domestic real - estate market, the "price - for - volume" phenomenon persists in the second - hand housing market [5][6]. - **Macro - Finance**: For stock index futures, the long - term strategy is to go long on dips, and pay attention to the safety margin for short - term entry. For treasury bond futures, the curve steepening strategy can still be held in the medium - term [8][9]. - **Black Metals**: The policy for the black metal industry is expected to be milder, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Steel and ore prices will likely remain volatile, while coking coal and coke prices may enter a high - level oscillation phase. For ferroalloys, it is advisable to hold previous short positions [11][13][14]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Zinc prices are expected to decline due to increased supply and weak demand. Lithium carbonate prices will be supported by tightened fundamentals in the short term. Industrial silicon prices will fluctuate, and polysilicon prices will have wide - range oscillations [18][19][20]. - **Agricultural Products**: Cotton prices will be affected by both short - term supply - demand tightness and long - term production increase pressure. Sugar prices are constrained by expected supply increases. Egg prices are likely to be weak in the short term, and apple prices can be operated with a light - position positive spread strategy [21][25][28]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are likely to be weak due to expected supply increases. Fuel oil, asphalt, and LPG prices will follow the trend of crude oil. Plastics, methanol, and other chemical products are expected to have weak oscillations [36][37][40]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Information - China's State Council Premier Li Qiang emphasizes enhancing macro - policy implementation efficiency, stimulating consumption, and promoting investment. Trump meets with Zelensky, and the market awaits the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. The second - hand housing market in China shows a "price - for - volume" trend, with prices falling [5][6]. 3.2 Macro - Finance Stock Index Futures - The A - share market has a strong upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a nearly 10 - year high. The strategy is to go long on dips in the long - term and pay attention to the safety margin for short - term entry [8]. Treasury Bond Futures - The curve steepening strategy can still be held in the medium - term. The money market is tight during the tax period, and the bond market is under pressure from the stock market. Inflation requires both expectation management and fundamental support [9]. 3.3 Black Metals Overall Situation - Policy is expected to be milder, and supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Seasonal demand is weak, but futures - cash arbitrage is active. Exports may be affected after mid - September [11]. Steel and Ore - Supply is expected to remain strong, and steel mill profits vary. Steel and ore prices will likely maintain a volatile trend, and the spot market trading is generally weak [13]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices may enter a high - level oscillation phase. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight in the short term, but there are also downward pressure factors. It is advisable to short on rebounds [14]. Ferroalloys - The double - silicon futures market has seen a partial release of liquidity. It is recommended to hold previous short positions and pay attention to structural trading opportunities [15]. Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be shorted on rallies, and glass should be observed for now. The supply of soda ash is increasing, and the glass market is weak [16]. ，3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Zinc - Social zinc inventories are increasing, and processing fees are rising. Zinc prices are expected to decline due to increased supply and weak demand [18]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are tightening, and the price will be supported in the short term, showing a strong - side oscillation [19]. Industrial Silicon - The inventory of industrial silicon is expected to decline due to the resumption of polysilicon production. The price will fluctuate, and attention should be paid to supply - side policies [20]. Polysilicon - The policy progress dominates the price fluctuations. The supply - demand contradiction is still relatively loose, and the price will have wide - range oscillations [21]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Cotton - In the short term, cotton prices will be supported by low inventory, but there are concerns about consumption. In the long term, there is pressure from increased production [21][23]. Sugar - The expected increase in supply will suppress sugar prices. Domestically, the import of sugar is increasing, and attention should be paid to the holiday stocking demand [25][26]. Eggs - The egg market has a large supply pressure, and the price of far - month contracts may decline to repair the high valuation. The price may rise seasonally in the short term, but the increase is limited [28][29]. Apples - It is advisable to operate with a light - position positive spread strategy. The price of early - maturing apples varies by quality, and the new - season apple price may be related to the early - maturing and old - season apple prices [30]. Corn - It is recommended to short the 01 contract on rallies and go long on the starch profit. The corn market sentiment is bearish due to supply and demand pressures [31]. Red Dates - It is advisable to wait and see. The spot price of red dates in the Hebei market is stable, and the number of warehouse receipts has changed [32]. Pigs - It is advisable to be cautiously bearish on near - month contracts and pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy. The short - term spot price will likely oscillate at the bottom [33][34]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The supply of crude oil is expected to increase, and the price is likely to be weak. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting in early September [36]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil follows the trend of crude oil. The current oil price has no main - line logic, and the supply - demand assessment is bearish [37]. Plastics - The market sentiment for plastics is weakening, and the supply pressure is large. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options or have a slightly bearish allocation [37]. Rubber - The rubber market has no obvious short - term contradictions. It is advisable to go long on dips with a stop - loss and be cautious when chasing high prices [39]. Methanol - Methanol prices will likely continue to oscillate weakly due to port inventory accumulation. It is recommended to have a bearish oscillation strategy [40]. Caustic Soda - The spot price of caustic soda is supported, while the futures price may be at a discount to the spot price in the future [41]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices follow the trend of crude oil. The asphalt market is in the off - season, and the inventory decline is slower than expected [42][43]. Polyester Industry Chain - The polyester industry chain will likely oscillate within a range. It is recommended to go long on PTA and short on PX [44]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price of LPG is expected to be weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is likely to decline in the medium - long term [45]. Pulp - The pulp market is affected by inventory accumulation, but there is support from the price of broad - leaf pulp. It is recommended to observe the port inventory and spot trading [47]. Logs - The log market is expected to oscillate. It is advisable to observe and conduct appropriate hedging on rallies [48]. Urea - The urea futures price will likely have wide - range oscillations due to the combination of bearish fundamentals and bullish sentiment [48].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards short - term bearish sentiment but limited trading opportunities on the current market [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and macro - economic data. Different metals show different price trends and investment suggestions [1][2][3] Summary by Category Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper dropped below 79,000 yuan. Copper prices may adjust to 78,500 yuan under the resistance above. The spot copper price was 79,435 yuan, with the premium in Guangdong expanding to 60 yuan and in Shanghai to 210 yuan. SMM social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 125,600 tons. High - position short positions are recommended to be held [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum slightly declined, and the spot in East China turned to a premium of 10 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory slightly increased by 0.1 million tons, while aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 0.9 million tons. The peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may occur in August, and the inventory is likely to be at a low level this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. The spot - AL cross - variety spread may narrow. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have risen above 50,000 tons. There is adjustment pressure on the alumina futures market [2] Zinc - The fundamentals of supply increase and demand weakness establish the logic of short - selling on rebounds in the medium - to - long - term. The 08 contract is approaching delivery, and long positions are being reduced. The term structure of Shanghai zinc is flattening, which helps to make hidden inventory visible. SMM zinc social inventory has continued to rise to 129,200 tons. LME zinc inventory is as low as 78,500 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants is 42.1%. The fundamentals are stronger overseas than in China, and it is difficult to open the import window. The import concentrate TC has room for further rebound. As the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, the downward adjustment space of zinc is limited. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Smelter maintenance and restart coexist, demand is insufficient, and short positions are increasing. As delivery approaches, the spot - futures spread is narrowing. Refined - scrap lead price is inverted by 25 yuan/ton, and downstream buyers' willingness to purchase at low prices has improved, with a preference for primary lead. There is limited downward space for Shanghai lead under cost support. It is recommended to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan/ton, focusing on the implementation of regular smelter maintenance in late August [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel has rebounded, and market trading is active. As the "anti - involution" theme in the domestic market comes to an end, nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will return to its fundamentals more quickly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,350 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price support from the upstream has weakened recently. Ferronickel inventory remains basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory has decreased by 0.1 million tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. It is recommended to actively enter short positions as Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound [6] Tin - The intraday decline of Shanghai tin has widened to below 268,000 yuan. It is recommended that downstream and mid - stream enterprises choose low - price points for pricing. The spot tin price has been reduced by 700 yuan to 269,500 yuan. Short - term long positions can be considered [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuates, and market trading is active. There is no clear trading theme in the market, and there are significant long - position profit - taking orders. The issue of September delivery limits the upside space. The spot price is 81,000 yuan. Downstream inquiries are active, and spot market transactions have improved. The total market inventory has slightly declined to 142,000 tons, smelter inventory has decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, downstream inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and trader inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. There is an obvious transfer of cargo rights, and downstream enterprises are increasing their replenishment efforts as prices decline. The latest quotation of Australian ore is nearly $1,000 [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon has reduced positions and closed at 8,675 yuan/ton. It is difficult to achieve capacity self - discipline and clearance, and market sentiment is mainly affected by the linkage of "anti - involution" varieties. On the spot side, the price of Xinjiang 421 silicon remains stable at 9,150 yuan/ton. Against the background of increased production by large enterprises in Xinjiang and in Sichuan and Yunnan, the inventory in delivery warehouses has increased significantly, and there is still hedging pressure in the high - price range of the futures market. SMM expects the polysilicon production schedule to exceed 130,000 tons, with a clear marginal increase in demand. Supported by photovoltaic policy expectations, there is strong support below the futures market. It will mainly fluctuate in the short term [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon has closed down above 50,000 yuan/ton. The recent correction is partly due to the sentiment transmission from the coking coal variety. On the spot side, according to SMM, the expected output of polysilicon in August will increase to over 130,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26,000 tons), the increase in downstream silicon wafer production schedules is limited, and high inventory suppresses the upward elasticity of the spot price. The price of N - type re - feeding material remains stable at 47,000 yuan/ton. Although the sentiment of "anti - involution" varieties has been under pressure for adjustment recently, the probability of the implementation of capacity management in key industries is relatively high. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, with strong support below. It is recommended to lightly build long positions near 50,000 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the high point from October 8 last year, reaching a nearly four-year high with a closing price of 3683.46 points, up 0.48% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 269.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, marking a return to above 2 trillion yuan after 114 trading days [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau reported that the July CPI data indicated relatively mild inflation pressures, alleviating concerns about a sharp rise in inflation due to tariffs [1] - The market perceives that despite a slight rebound in core inflation, the overall mild CPI data has removed a significant obstacle for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1] - Traders have significantly increased their expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with the probability now at 95% [1] Commodity Market - Following the news, the U.S. dollar index fell, leading to an increase in futures prices for metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, gold, and silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange [2] Futures Trading Competition - The "Economic Grain Cup - National Futures Simulation Championship" has attracted participants who are bullish on non-ferrous metal futures, with the competition ongoing and offering cash rewards for positive returns [3][4] - The competition features a simulated trading environment with a starting capital of 1 million yuan, allowing participants to practice trading without financial risk [3][4] - Participants can benefit from various educational resources, including trading teaching sessions and market analysis, enhancing their trading skills [4][6] Investment Insights - Experts in the competition suggest that the current downtrend of the U.S. dollar index is favorable for stimulating the prices of precious and non-ferrous metals [4] - There is a belief among participants that the Shanghai Composite Index may face resistance around the 3700 and 4000 points, with a potential bull market if it breaks through the 4000-point barrier [8][10] - The artificial intelligence sector is identified as a significant investment theme, with opportunities in related sub-sectors that are still undervalued [10]