热点追踪 （2026年1月9日） 研究咨询部 每日涨跌幅及资金变化 苹果 中证500期货 中证1000期货 线材 燃油 沪铝 沪锡 沪深300期货 短纤 不锈钢豆油红枣 菜粕 纤维板 豆二 10豆一粳米年期国债期货鸡蛋玉米 棕榈油 上证沪金50期货苯乙烯 低硫燃料油 橡胶 铁矿石 PVC豆粕 PTA 尿素2玉米淀粉 碳酸锂 年期国债期货 白糖乙二醇菜油沥青 20号胶 沪锌 生猪5年期国债期货 聚丙烯 硅铁焦炭 纯碱 郑棉棉纱热轧卷板 沪铅沪银 烧碱玻璃 30对二甲苯 年期国债期货 LPG 塑料 原油 螺纹钢 锰硅 沪铜国际铜 丁二烯橡胶 集运指数(欧线) 氧化铝 工业硅 纸浆 甲醇 花生 焦煤 沪镍 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 资 金 流 向 （ % ） 涨跌幅（%） 品种每日涨跌幅及资金变化 每日成交量变化 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 苹果 中证500期货 中证1000期货 线材 燃油 沪铝 沪深300期货 沪锡 红枣 豆油 短纤 不锈钢 棕榈油 上证50期货 纤维板 苯乙烯 沪金 豆一 低硫燃料油 菜粕 10年期国债期货 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.09」 沪锌市场周报 采需平淡库存累增 预计锌价震荡调整 研究员： 王福辉 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 行情回顾：本周沪锌主力冲高回调，周线涨跌幅为2.99%，振幅4.79%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价23970元 /吨。 行情展望：宏观面，美国劳动力市场未显明显压力，上周首次申请失业救济人数环比微增至20.8万，低于 预期21.2万；美债收益率反弹、美元四周新高。基本面，上游锌矿进口量高位，但国内锌矿年末减产；国 内炼厂采购国产矿竞争加大，国内外加工费均明显下跌，国内炼厂利润收缩，预计产量将继续受限。不过 近期伦锌价格回调，沪伦比值回升，出口窗口存在重新关闭可能。需求端，下游市场逐步转向淡季，地产 板块构成拖累，基建、家电板块也呈现走弱，而汽车等领域政策支持带来部分亮点。下游市场以逢低按需 采购为主，近期锌价快速走高，下游采购寡淡，现货升水偏高持稳，但国内库存回升明显；LME ...

来源：上海有色网 金属市场： 截至日间收盘，内盘基本金属集体下挫，且跌幅均在1%以上。沪镍以高达6.14%的跌幅领跌，沪铜、沪 铝以及沪铅一同跌超2%，沪铜跌2.76%，沪铝跌2.89%，沪铅跌2.01%。沪锌跌1.36%，沪锡跌1.83%。 氧化铝主连跌1.58%，铸造铝主连跌2.19%。 贵金属方面，截至15:02分，COMEX黄金跌0.48%，COMEX白银跌2.27%。国内方面，沪金跌0.73%， 沪银跌5.9%。 此外，铂主连跌6.72%，钯主连跌3.57%。 截至今日15:02分行情 | 初始 代码 | | 名称 | * @ | 最新 | 苏尼号% | 涨跌 | 总量 | THUSE | 买入价 | 英出价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3 | ecm | 欧线集运 时 | 4 | 1706.0 | -8.98 | -168.3 | 2.72万 | 12 | 1705.7 | 1706.0 | | 8 | CLOOY | | | 56.25 | | | 1.36万 | | 56.25 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the stock index, at the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with the unchanged policy support for the capital market, the medium - to long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [2][3]. - For treasury bonds, the improvement of market expectations for the economy may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [4][6]. - For precious metals, there may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [7][8]. - For non - ferrous metals, most non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost, and market sentiment, with different trends. For example, copper prices are expected to slow down in their upward trend; aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong; zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term; lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term; nickel prices may have bottomed out in the short term; tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment; and the prices of some non - ferrous metal products such as stainless steel and casting aluminum alloy also have their own trends [10][11][13] [16][17][18]. - For black building materials, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range; iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations; glass prices may have some upward potential; and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [32][33][35]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed; the valuation of heavy - oil products in crude oil is expected to increase; methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips; urea is recommended to take profits on rallies; and the trends of pure benzene, styrene, and other products are also affected by factors such as cost, supply, and demand [49][50][55]. - For agricultural products, the short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse; egg prices have limited upside and downside space; the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate; the current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic; sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest; and cotton prices are recommended to go long on dips after a correction [78][79][83]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: The CSRC will strengthen the coordination of administrative, criminal, and civil actions to combat financial fraud. Goldman Sachs recommends overweighting Chinese stocks, expecting a 15% - 20% annual increase in 2026 and 2027. The basis ratios of stock - index futures are provided [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: At the beginning of the year, institutional allocation funds are expected to flow back into the market, and with policy support, the medium - to long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of Treasury bond futures contracts have different changes. The National Development and Reform Commission has introduced policies for Yangtze River protection projects. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 4688 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of economic expectations may put pressure on the bond market. Although the central bank maintains an attitude of caring for funds, the bond market is expected to be weak and volatile in the first quarter, mainly affected by the spring rally in the stock market, government bond supply, and interest - rate cut expectations [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver have increased. Weak US manufacturing PMI data and geopolitical issues have strengthened the expectations of the Fed's loose monetary policy, leading to a short - term increase in precious - metal prices [7]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There may be a short - term significant correction in January, but it does not mean the end of the upward cycle of gold and silver. In the long term, there are expectations of loose fiscal and monetary policies [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of LME copper has reached 13,000 US dollars for the first time. The price of domestic copper has continued to be strong, with changes in inventory and basis [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down, with support from supply - side factors and pressure from demand - side factors [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The prices of domestic and international aluminum have accelerated their upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [12]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by factors such as supply - side disturbances and the high prices of precious metals and copper [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the medium term and strong in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and supply - demand relationships [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot have changed, with changes in inventory and basis [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lead prices are expected to be weak in the short term, affected by factors such as inventory and market sentiment [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel has oscillated, with changes in spot premiums and cost factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [18]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin has increased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [20][21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium has increased, with changes in futures prices and inventory [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals of carbonate lithium are expected to improve, but there are concerns about demand if prices remain high. It is recommended to observe or take a light - position attempt [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe. If there is no actual production - reduction action, short positions can be considered on rallies [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel has decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to consider going long on dips and pay attention to the implementation of policies [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has accelerated its upward movement, with changes in inventory and basis [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to be volatile and strong, affected by cost and supply - side factors [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate in the bottom range, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - policies [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [34]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate, with upside space limited by high inventory and supply expectations and downside supported by restocking expectations [35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The price of glass has decreased, and the price of soda ash has decreased. There are changes in inventory and basis [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Glass prices may have some upward potential, and the supply - surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed fundamentally [37][38]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon have decreased, with changes in inventory and basis [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The future trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are affected by factors such as market sentiment, cost, and supply - side disturbances [41][42]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon has decreased, and the price of polysilicon has increased, with changes in inventory and basis [43][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate, and polysilicon prices are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and market sentiment [44][47]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber has oscillated and increased, with different views from bulls and bears [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to observe and partially close the hedging position of buying RU2605 and selling RU2609 [53]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil has decreased, and the prices of refined - oil products have also changed, with changes in inventory [54]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to increase [55]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices of methanol have changed [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol is considered to have the feasibility of going long on dips [57]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea have changed, with a certain basis [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have changed, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and basis [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is considered that the non - integrated profit of styrene has room for upward repair, and it is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC has decreased, with changes in cost, supply, demand, and inventory [62][63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to short on rallies before significant production cuts in the industry [64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - demand pattern of ethylene glycol needs to be improved through increased production cuts, and the valuation may need to be compressed in the medium term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage after short - term destocking. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [69]. Para - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of para - xylene has decreased, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [70]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PX is expected to maintain a small inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of correction in the short term and the opportunity of going long on dips in the medium term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP has changed, with changes in supply, demand, and inventory [74][75]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - surplus pattern of PP may change in the first quarter of next year, and the price may bottom out [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The prices of live pigs in different regions have changed, with different supply and demand situations in the north and south [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term logic of rising pig prices is strong, but the medium - term support may collapse. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the support of far - month contracts [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The prices of eggs have changed, with stable supply and different digestion speeds in the terminal market [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Egg prices have limited upside and downside space. It is recommended to short on rallies [81][82]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures have changed, with changes in spot prices and inventory [83]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate, affected by factors such as import costs and inventory [84]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The prices of oils and fats futures have decreased, with changes in spot prices and inventory [85][86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals of oils and fats are weak, but the medium - and long - term expectations are optimistic. The prices are not far from the bottom range [87][88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures has increased, with changes in spot prices and production data in different regions [89][90]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Sugar prices may rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest, and the short - term downside space of domestic sugar prices is limited [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures has changed, with changes in spot prices, supply, demand, and inventory [92]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to go long on cotton after a correction, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships and policy expectations [93].

展望2026年，机构普遍认为，全球对于资源安全的诉求将成为新主线，AI投资等带来的新需求也将成 为新一轮商品周期的驱动力量。中金公司在大宗商品2026年展望报告中，总结了有望贯穿全年市场的三 条投资主线： 1月5日，能源类期货走势分化。沥青期货增仓上行，主力合约BU2602收盘报3133.0元/吨，涨幅3.95%， 所有合约日内增仓38946手，增仓幅度近10%；原油期货则明显走弱，主力合约SC2602收盘报421.7元/ 桶，跌幅3.39%。 元旦假期，海外地缘冲突升级，美国于1月3日对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动，成为引发能源期货价格 波动的重要原因。多家机构表示，委内瑞拉原油是沥青型炼厂的重要原料，此次供应中断可能引发沥青 原料短缺。 广发期货研报表示，OPEC数据显示，委内瑞拉石油储量达3032亿桶，占全球的17%，是全球石油储量 最高的国家。其中，马瑞原油（Merey）是委内瑞拉核心出口原油品种，该品种属于典型高硫超重质原 油，沥青收率达60%（中东地区常规原油的沥青收率多在30%），是沥青型炼厂的重要原料，其短期供 应中断将直接引发沥青原料短缺，推高沥青价格。 有色金属期货昨日也整体走强。工业金属领 ...

1月5日（周一），沪铜上涨，开年表现强劲，因智利矿山罢工导致供应担忧加剧。 上海期货交易所（SHFE）主力期铜日间收盘上涨2.68%，报每吨101,350元，在2026年首个交易日收复 100,000元关口。 与此同时，上周五，南非约翰内斯堡-艾芬豪矿业执行联席董事长罗伯特·弗里兰德 (Robert Friedland) 、 联席董事长郝维宝 (Weibao Hao) 与总裁兼首席执行官玛娜·克洛特 (Marna Cloete)公布，卡莫阿–卡库拉 (Kamoa-Kakula)50万吨/年一步炼铜冶炼厂在点火烘炉约五周后，也即首次投料一周后，于12月29日顺 利出产第一批阳极铜。 LME其他金属中，三个月期锌上涨1.07%，报每吨3,160.5美元；三个月期铅上涨0.32%，报每吨2,013美 元； 由于主要工会与公司就新劳动合同的谈判破裂，Capstone Copper在智利北部的Mantoverde铜金矿数百名 矿工罢工，对铜价构成支撑。 三个月期镍上涨0.3%，报每吨16,870美元。 罢工发生后2026年供应担忧继续加剧。此前矿山业务中断、美国关税导致的地区性混乱推动铜价在过去 一年创下历史新高。 铝 ...

| 理 | 名行石林 | 最新 | 现手 | 老鼠 | 秀的 | 11:24 | 元 2 | 英语 | 成交承 | 河北洋 | 博登录 | 日喀它 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | J | 4 2606 M | 452.85 | 3 | 453.00 | 453.05 | 8.88% | 1 | 1 | 32771 36.92 | | 13573 | -832 | | 2 | 0 | 129980 | 6 | 08667 | 130000 | 7.7495 | 35 | 90 | 0066 EZ9EDE | | 062515 | 25096 | | 3 | 182606 11 | 583.95 | 3 | 583.50 | 584.15 | 6.4896 | 8 | 3 | 57471 35.55 | | 31924 | -1342 | | 4 | 年果2605 N | 9547 | 19 | 9546 | 9547 | 4.2196 | 1 | 5 | 246755 | 38 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | 1 2 2 2 3 | 国贸期货研究院 | 投资咨询号:Z0000116 | 2025/12/30 | 从业资格亏:F0251925 | 金融衍生品中心 李泽矩 | Time to Matutity T | Moneyness M = > | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 历史波动率 | 主 ...

| | | 沪锌产业日报 2025-12-29 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪锌主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 23255 | 85 02-03月合约价差:沪锌(日,元/吨) | -30 | 15 | | | LME三个月锌报价(日,美元/吨) | 3086.5 | -10 沪锌总持仓量(日,手) | 197429 | -2988 | | | 沪锌前20名净持仓(日,手) | 1795 | 2441 沪锌仓单(日,吨) | 0 | 0 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 72963 | -3054 LME库存(日,吨) | 106875 | 7900 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网0#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 23440 | 240 长江有色市场1#锌现货价(日,元/吨) | 23490 | 260 | | | ZN主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 185 | 155 LME锌升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -28.26 | 0.88 | | | 昆明 ...

每经AI快讯，12月27日，国际铜夜盘收涨2.95%，沪铜收涨3.33%，沪铝收涨0.60%，沪锌收涨0.37%， 沪铅收涨1.33%，沪镍收涨1.06%，沪锡收涨2.46%。氧化铝夜盘收涨2.29%，铝合金收涨0.70%。不锈钢 夜盘收跌0.08%。 ...