交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 晨会纪要 2025 年 10 月 10 日 | 联系人：王竣冬 | | --- | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 研究咨询电话： | | 0531-81678626 | | 客服电话： | | 400-618-6767 | | 公司网址： | | www.ztqh.com | | [Table_QuotePic] 中泰微投研小程序 | | [Table_Report] 中泰期货公众号 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Finance] 交易咨询资格号：证监许可[2012]112 | 偏空 | 震荡 | 偏多 | | --- | --- | --- | | 沪锌 | 沪铅 | 郑棉 | | ビー | PVC | 菜粕 | | 棕榈油 | 豆油 | 豆粕 | | 白糖 | 聚丙烯 | 甲醇 | | 沪锡 | 热轧卷板 | 橡胶 | | 沪金 | 鸡蛋 | 玉米 | | 沪铜 | 锰硅 | 沖铝 | | | 铁矿石 | | | | 菜油 | | | | 塑料 | | | | 螺纹钢 | | | ...

人民财讯10月9日电，国内期货夜盘开盘多数上涨，沪金涨0.56%，沪银涨1.92%，沪铜涨1.73%，沪锌 涨逾1%，沪锡涨1.55%，铁矿涨超1%，焦煤涨2.01%，玻璃涨0.74%，原油涨0.49%。 ...

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed performance, with the main contract for Shanghai gold leading the gains [1] - As of the market close at 15:00, Shanghai gold, international copper, and Shanghai copper rose over 4%, while soybean oil, Shanghai nickel, and Shanghai silver increased over 2% [1] - Factors supporting the long-term upward trend of gold include the reconstruction of the global monetary credit system, de-dollarization trends, continuous gold purchases by central banks, and structural supply-demand imbalances [1] Group 2 - The ongoing "shutdown" crisis in the U.S. government has increased market uncertainty regarding economic direction and Federal Reserve policy, leading to heightened investment risk and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economy has raised expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, contributing to a downward trend in real interest rates [2] - Given the support from macroeconomic slowdown, monetary policy easing, and geopolitical factors, precious metal prices are expected to maintain a bullish outlook in the long term [2]

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，10月9日，国内商品期货收盘，互有涨跌。生猪、液化气跌逾5%，鸡蛋跌超4%，尿素跌 超3%，烧碱、甲醇等跌超2%，淀粉、沥青等跌超1%，花生、PTA等小幅下跌；沪金、沪铜等涨超 4%，豆油、沪镍等涨超2%，红枣、沪锌等涨超1%，SS、焦炭等小幅上涨。 ...

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 跌幅方面，生猪、鸡蛋、液化石油气等跌超5%，尿素跌超3%，原油、PVC、甲醇、烧碱、多晶硅等跌 超2%，燃油、玻璃、硅铁、塑料、苯乙烯等跌超1%。 上证报中国证券网讯 据Choice数据，10月9日，国内商品期市早盘收盘主力合约涨跌互现，截至11:30， 沪金涨超4%，棕榈油、沪铜等涨超3%，沪锡、沪银、豆油等涨超2%，沪锌、沪铝、沪镍、橡胶等涨超 1%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the precious metals, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, lithium carbonate, and tin markets. It takes into account factors such as market trends, supply and demand dynamics, policy impacts, and geopolitical risks, and offers corresponding trading strategies for each metal [3][4][6][8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold reached a new high of over $3,830 per ounce, closing up 1.97%. London silver hit a high of $47.174, closing up 1.9%. The Shanghai gold and silver futures also reached new highs [3]. - **Important Information**: The US government faces a shutdown crisis, which may affect economic data release and the Fed's October monetary policy decision. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October is 89.8% [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US government shutdown risk and the expectation of interest rate cuts have increased market risk aversion, leading to a strong upward trend in precious metals. However, due to the approaching National Day holiday in China, it is advisable to reduce positions at high prices [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: Take profits at high prices before the holiday and hold light positions. Wait and see for arbitrage. Buy deep out - of - the - money call options or collar call options [4]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE copper 2511 contract closed up 1.96%. LME copper closed down 2.19%. LME inventory decreased by 500 tons, while COMEX inventory increased by 923 tons [6]. - **Important Information**: The US government may shut down, and different Fed officials have different views on interest rates [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Grasberg accident has exacerbated the tightness of copper ore supply. Domestic production has declined, and consumption is weak. The long - term supply - demand structure has changed [8]. - **Trading Strategies**: Adopt a low - buying strategy for long positions. Hold off - market positive arbitrage positions. Wait and see for options [8]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of alumina 2601 contract fell. Spot prices in various regions declined [10]. - **Important Information**: Eight departments proposed to strengthen resource exploration and rationally layout alumina projects. The national alumina operating capacity increased, and the import price decreased [10][13]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy impacts on capacity investment are limited. The import window is open, and the fundamentals are in surplus, so the price is expected to be weak [14]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to trend weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [14][16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose. Spot prices remained flat [16]. - **Important Information**: Policies affected the recycled aluminum industry. The exchange's aluminum alloy warehouse receipts increased, and downstream enterprises had different holiday arrangements [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The tight supply of scrap aluminum restricts raw material stocking. Downstream holidays are extended, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly [18]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the futures price to fluctuate with the aluminum price. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [19]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of SHFE aluminum 2511 contract rose. Spot prices in various regions declined [21]. - **Important Information**: US economic data showed resilience. Chinese aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and photovoltaic installation declined. Downstream enterprises' holiday and procurement situations varied [22][23]. - **Logic Analysis**: US economic data affects interest rate cut expectations. Domestic inventory decreased, but consumption is not strong. The price is expected to fluctuate, and there may be inventory accumulation after the holiday [24]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to fluctuate in the short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc rose, and SHFE zinc rose. Spot premiums increased [26]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc inventory decreased, and a mining company obtained a new mining license [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: In October, domestic zinc concentrate production may decrease, and imports are expected to decline. Refined zinc supply may increase, and consumption is not expected to improve significantly. Overseas inventory reduction supports the price, but there are risks of overseas delivery [27][28]. - **Trading Strategies**: Control positions before the holiday. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [30]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell, and SHFE lead fell slightly. Spot prices declined, and downstream procurement was okay [32]. - **Important Information**: Lead inventory decreased, lead battery enterprise production was mixed, and the holiday may lead to a decline in production [32][33][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The lead concentrate market is in tight balance, and scrap lead prices are likely to rise. Primary lead production may be affected by losses, while secondary lead production may increase. Consumption in the peak season is not as expected [35]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect the price to fluctuate weakly. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [36]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose, and SHFE nickel rose. LME nickel inventory increased, and premiums of different brands changed [38]. - **Important Information**: Russian nickel entered the US market through Europe. Indonesia's actions affected the nickel price [38][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Indonesia's actions drove a slight rebound in the nickel price. Downstream consumption is expected to be flat, and the supply is still in surplus. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [40]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [41][42]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main contract of stainless steel rose, and index positions decreased. Spot prices were in a certain range [42]. - **Important Information**: A Korean and a Chinese company will jointly build a stainless steel plant in Indonesia [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Stainless steel followed the nickel price to rebound slightly. Supply pressure remains, but inventory is lower than last year, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to hold an empty position during the holiday [44]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [44]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures fell, and some spot prices declined [46]. - **Important Information**: A silicon project started construction [46]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory structure is "low at both ends and high in the middle." The supply is not very sensitive to price changes. There are rumors of increased production, and the price may回调 in the short term and then can be bought [46]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term callback and then buy. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits. No arbitrage opportunity [47]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated narrowly and fell slightly. Spot prices were stable [49]. - **Important Information**: The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission held a symposium [49]. - **Logic Analysis**: Spot prices are stable, but there are pressures on contract delivery and inventory accumulation. The price may回调 in the short term, and it is recommended to exit long positions and then re - enter after the holiday [49]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term callback, exit long positions and re - enter after the holiday. Conduct reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options to take profits [50]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract of lithium carbonate rose, and positions and warehouse receipts increased. Spot prices declined [52][53]. - **Important Information**: A lithium mining company modified a supply agreement, Tesla entered the Indian market, and a lithium project was put into production [53]. - **Logic Analysis**: October demand is strong, supply growth is narrowing, and inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate during the holiday, and the situation may change after the holiday. It is recommended to hold an empty position [52][53][54]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a wide - range fluctuation. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell out - of - the - money put options [55]. Tin - **Market Review**: SHFE tin rose, and spot prices declined. Consumption was weak [56]. - **Important Information**: The US government shutdown risk, Fed officials' views, and Indonesia's closure of illegal mining points affected the market [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The US situation and Indonesia's actions affected the price. The tin concentrate supply is still tight, demand is weak, and inventory decreased. Attention should be paid to Myanmar's resumption of production and consumption recovery [57][59]. - **Trading Strategies**: Expect a short - term strong - side fluctuation, be cautious about Indonesia's event. Wait and see for options [59].

2025年09月30日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铝 | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率持续上升。 | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.07%，收于 | | | | 20730 | 元/吨，国内 | 0-3 | 月差-25 | 元/吨，LME | | | | 价格 2665 | 美元/吨。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 交易策略：节前下游积极备货，需求回暖趋势延续，下游开工持续上升，去库拐点初现，电解铝价格下方支 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 撑较强，预计延续震荡偏强走势，建议逢低做多。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...

人民财讯9月29日电，国内商品期货夜盘开盘，燃油、原油、焦煤跌逾1%，焦炭、纸浆等小幅下跌；沪 锌、沪金、沪锡等上涨。 ...

每经AI快讯，9月26日，国内商品期货早盘开盘，互有涨跌。橡胶、NR等跌逾1%，纯碱、热卷等 小幅下跌；沪银、集运欧线等涨超1%，沪锌、淀粉等小幅上涨。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com ...

Group 1 - Domestic futures opened mixed in early trading, with rubber and NR down over 1% [1] - Pure soda and hot-rolled coil experienced slight declines [1] - Shanghai silver and European shipping lines rose over 1%, while Shanghai zinc and starch saw minor increases [1]