Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides trend judgments on various futures based on fundamental and quantitative indicators, and analyzes the market conditions and trends of multiple industries such as macro finance, black, non - ferrous and new materials, agriculture, and energy chemicals, offering corresponding trading strategies [2][4]. - The geopolitical situation, especially the US - Iran conflict, has a significant impact on the global financial and commodity markets, affecting the supply, demand, and price trends of various commodities [5][6][7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Trend Judgments - **Based on Fundamental Judgments**: Trend空头 includes manganese silicon; Oscillatory and bearish includes eggs, ferrosilicon, polysilicon, red dates, plastics, PVC; Oscillatory includes lithium carbonate, cotton yarn, five - year Treasury bonds, ten - year Treasury bonds, two - year Treasury bonds, thirty - year Treasury bonds, cotton, sugar, pulp, logs, urea, iron ore, caustic soda, hot - rolled coil, rebar, copper, ethylene glycol, PTA, industrial silicon, bottle chips, p - xylene, short - fiber, live pigs, coke, methanol, coking coal, glass, soda ash, liquefied petroleum gas, crude oil, zinc; Oscillatory and bullish includes 20 - number rubber, rubber, synthetic rubber, Shanghai Composite 50 stock index futures, CSI 500 stock index futures, CSI 300 stock index futures, CSI 1000 index futures, fuel oil, asphalt [2]. - **Based on Quantitative Indicators**: Bearish includes coke, coking coal, corn starch, hot - rolled coil, rebar, PVC, soybean No.1; Oscillatory includes Zhengzhou cotton, Shanghai gold, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, Shanghai aluminum, soybean No.2, eggs, asphalt, PTA, plastics, sugar, polypropylene, glass, soybean meal, manganese silicon, methanol, rapeseed meal, palm oil, iron ore; Bullish includes rubber, Shanghai tin, Shanghai copper, corn, Shanghai silver, Shanghai lead, Shanghai zinc [4]. 2. Macro Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Consider a long - position strategy and pay attention to trading volume. The current position has a certain odds, and short - term winning probability may increase [11]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market gradually has odds, and consider a left - side long - position strategy. The yield of bonds over 10 years has odds, but the odds are not thick enough. Keep a steep yield curve thinking, and the yield of bonds under 10 years still has room to decline [12]. 3. Black - **Steel**: The overall short - term trend is oscillatory. The demand for building materials is weak, and the inventory of coils and strips is high, suppressing steel prices. The cost side has strong support, and the iron ore supply and demand are in a double - strong pattern. Suggest holding the short - straddle strategy for steel and iron ore, and then shorting on rallies later [14][15][16]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices may oscillate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to go long on dips. The prices are affected by the energy substitution logic caused by geopolitical conflicts. Although the supply is sufficient, the procurement willingness of coking enterprises has recovered. If the emotional premium fades, the price may fall back [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: It is recommended to short on rallies. The supply of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon is expected to increase, and the supply - demand relationship is weakening. Although the prices are affected by energy emotions, the fundamental contradictions are accumulating [18]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. Soda ash supply has slightly declined due to short - term maintenance, and the supply stability of leading enterprises needs attention. Glass supply has both cold - repair and ignition expectations, and the mid - stream inventory needs to be digested [19]. 4. Non - ferrous and New Materials - **Copper**: The short - term price will oscillate widely. The Middle East situation shows signs of easing but remains uncertain. The downstream consumption is warming up, and the inventory is decreasing [21]. - **Zinc**: The inventory has decreased, and the price has stopped falling and rebounded slightly. It is still advisable to adopt an oscillatory and bearish strategy with small price rebounds [22][23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is affected by mine - end disturbances and macro - emotions. If the export of lithium ore from Zimbabwe is still prohibited, it may drive up the price; otherwise, it may cause a short - term supply shock [23][24]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon oscillates, and it is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of selling call options after a rebound. Polysilicon oscillates weakly, and the liquidity is insufficient, so operate with caution [25][26]. 5. Agriculture - **Cotton**: The price oscillates at a high level. The cotton market is affected by the surrounding market and the macro - environment. The global cotton production is expected to decline, and the domestic cotton inventory is in the de - stocking stage. The import pressure restricts the price, but the decrease in the expected planting area is beneficial to the price in the long term [27][28]. - **Sugar**: The price oscillates and rebounds. The global sugar supply surplus is expected to decrease, and the domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure, but the import cost supports the price [29][30]. - **Eggs**: The recent consumption recovery supports the price, but the supply pressure is large. The spot price may have limited upside, and the futures price of the near - month contract has upward pressure [32][33]. - **Apples**: High - quality apples may be strong, and the futures price may be strong. The inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the demand during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival boosts the price [34][35]. - **Red Dates**: The current view is oscillatory and bearish. It is in the traditional consumption off - season, and the consumption is difficult to grow significantly without external positive factors [36]. - **Live Pigs**: It is advisable to pay attention to selling out - of - the - money call options of near - month contracts. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, but the live - pig inventory is expected to decrease, and the factors for the price to stabilize and rebound are accumulating [37]. 6. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical risk has weakened, but the situation is still variable. If the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, the oil price will return to fundamental trading; otherwise, it may rise. The US - Iran conflict is likely to cool down [39]. - **Fuel Oil**: It will follow the oil price and oscillate at a high level. The focus is on the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [40]. - **Plastics**: The price is slightly supported by the unstable situation in the Middle East. The upstream production cut is expanding, and the future price depends on the resolution of the war [41]. - **Rubber**: The domestic Yunnan production area has started tapping, and the price is oscillatory and strong in the short term. It is advisable to hold the strategy of narrowing the spread between RU and NR and pay attention to the opportunity of selling put options after full - scale tapping [42]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is driven by the cost side and may have room to rise. It is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to energy prices and device changes [43]. - **Methanol**: The short - term price is affected by the geopolitical situation in Iran. The long - term supply - demand pattern is improving, but there is great uncertainty. It is not advisable to be overly bearish [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: It is advisable to adopt an intraday wide - range oscillatory strategy. The price is affected by coal prices, supply - side production cuts, and export volume increases, as well as futures premium and inventory accumulation [45][46]. - **Asphalt**: The industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price follows the oil price, and the profit has rebounded [47][48]. - **PVC**: The price may have a callback risk. The core factor is whether the upstream ethylene production cut can continue and expand. If the oil transportation problem is solved, the price may fall rapidly [49]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It is advisable to take profit on previous long positions. The cost side is weakening, but the supply contraction provides support. Pay attention to the geopolitical impact, device maintenance progress, and the recovery of polyester demand [50]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The geopolitical risk has weakened, but the situation is still variable. If the Strait of Hormuz is navigable, it will return to fundamental trading. It is expected to continue to weaken, but the price may be stronger than that of crude oil [51]. 7. Others - **Paper Pulp**: Pay attention to the impact of the macro and commodity emotions. The import is stable, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid replenishment. The high inventory and weak demand are in a game with the cost and energy - related production cuts of overseas pulp mills. It is advisable to go long on dips if the market improves [53]. - **Logs**: Pay attention to the macro and commodity emotions. The procurement enthusiasm of processing plants is low, and the fundamentals may stabilize if the demand recovers [54]. - **Urea**: The far - month contract pays attention to cost - driven and agricultural product price increases, and the near - month contract follows the policy. The current supply - demand is balanced, and the impact of the state reserve release needs to be observed [55].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Not clearly defined in the provided content [1] - Aluminum: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation which lacks clear meaning [1] - Alumina: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly defined [1] - Zinc: ★★★, indicating a more distinct uptrend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Tin: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly defined; with "な女女" notation [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The research focuses on the market conditions and trends of various non - ferrous metals, analyzing factors such as supply, demand, inventory, and geopolitical events, and providing corresponding price trend judgments and investment suggestions [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Tuesday, Shanghai copper decreased in volume and closed with a negative candle, and overnight copper prices rebounded with Trump's unilateral release of US - Iran negotiation news. This week, key indicators are limited, and attention should be paid to whether a preliminary passage agreement can be reached after the one - month stagnation in the Strait of Hormuz. The decline in copper prices attracted mid - and downstream buyers, and some refined copper rod enterprises actively replenished stocks. In the short - and medium - term critical period of the war game, if an effective directional agreement is temporarily reached, the short - term market fluctuations may be similar to the impact of reciprocal tariffs last year. Technically, the strong support for copper prices is first at 91,000, and attention should also be paid to the MA40 weekly moving average [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China were 140 yuan, 170 yuan, and 170 yuan respectively. The social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased slightly compared with last Thursday. As the aluminum price fell, the inventory and spot market feedback improved. Attention should be paid to whether this can be sustained. High energy prices suppress the economic outlook and interest rate path, and market sentiment fluctuates with war news. Shanghai aluminum should pay attention to the key support at 23,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy fluctuates with the aluminum price, and the price difference between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum fluctuates around 1,000 yuan under the swinging macro - sentiment. The operating capacity of domestic alumina is temporarily stable, and the surplus situation has improved. However, two alumina plants in Guangxi are about to enter the trial production stage, and imported supplies will also increase, so the surplus prospect remains unchanged. In the short term, alumina oscillates and waits for the guidance of Guinea's mining policy [3] Zinc - Trump announced the postponement of the strike on Iranian power plants and set a 5 - day negotiation period. The market saw a "TACO" again, and zinc prices rebounded following the non - ferrous metal sector. However, there are still concerns about the marginal tightening of liquidity. Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a US recession to 30%. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots exceeded 250,000 tons, and Shanghai zinc is in an overall surplus and pressured state. Overseas mines are tight and energy prices are high, so the production increase space of zinc ingots is limited, and the supply - side pressure is mainly in the domestic market. Without a significant rebound in TC, the smelting cost line of domestic smelters will still provide strong support for the disk. Demand is gradually showing peak - season characteristics, and Shanghai zinc is expected to gradually enter a range consolidation, with the price range temporarily at 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [4] Aluminum - Overseas aluminum ingot destocking is not smooth, and domestic aluminum ingots are still in the stage of price - cut destocking. The surplus dominates the weak operation of lead prices. Against the background of high by - product prices, the comprehensive cost of primary aluminum smelters is low, and the center of the disk is under pressure. The profit of recycled aluminum is not good, and some smelters still reduce production or postpone resuming production. Shanghai aluminum has strong support at the 16,200 yuan/ton line. However, the import profit is good, overseas low - cost crude aluminum is supplemented to the domestic market, and the price of waste batteries is hard to rise significantly. Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a low level [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel oscillated, market trading declined, and positions slowly recovered. The strong US dollar exerts overall pressure on the market. The demand for stainless steel in the peak season is lower than expected, and downstream only replenishes stocks for rigid needs, with light trading. Due to macro uncertainties, the futures oscillate weakly and are difficult to drive the spot market. Although the social inventory has decreased slightly, it is still at a high level and the destocking is slow; steel mills maintain high production schedules, and the supply pressure is large. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 6,550 yuan, the discount of imported nickel is 150 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel pig iron per unit has dropped nearly 10 yuan, closing at 1,086.5 yuan per unit. The rebound of upstream prices continues to push up the mid - stream prices and form cost support. In the short term, it is still dominated by policy sentiment. Nickel and stainless steel have high inventories, and attention should be paid to further changes in Indonesian policies, with an overall tendency to weak oscillation [7] Tin - Shanghai tin decreased in volume and oscillated during the session. The short - term trading rhythm is guided by the stock market, and the core of the market is still the Middle East war situation. On the supply side, China's imports of tin concentrates in the first two months have improved significantly year - on - year, and the production of tin concentrates in major producing countries has been continuously stable. The mainstream quotes of domestic tin concentrates from third - party sources have gradually recovered. On this basis, it is generally expected that the domestic refined tin production will return to normal levels in March. On the consumption side, as the tin price falls, it boosts the domestic replenishment willingness, and the Middle East war situation has a certain impact on the normal production of the low - and medium - end integrated circuit industry chain in Southeast Asia. The tin market may be strong domestically and weak overseas, and in terms of trend, the price may still seek support at the 300,000 integer mark and the medium - and long - term weekly K - line moving average. Mid - and downstream enterprises should make rigid purchases at the right time, and the 2605 option can appropriately focus on the direction of selling out - of - the - money put options [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate oscillates strongly, and market trading is active. The total market inventory decreased by 100 tons to 99,000 tons, the smelter inventory increased by 300 tons to 16,600 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 500 tons to 44,000 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 36,000 tons. The overall destocking speed has slowed down, and the change in inventory structure is worthy of attention. The decline in smelter inventory has slowed down, and the confidence of traders in hoarding goods has wavered, and they have started to sell to downstream. From the perspective of production, the production of lithium carbonate returned to a high level at the beginning of March. The weekly production has continuously reached new highs, waiting for the inflection point of inventory. The latest quote of Australian ore is 2,045 US dollars, and the ore - end quote has loosened. Technically, the lithium market is resistant to decline and should be considered from an oscillatory perspective [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly higher, and the upward momentum has weakened; the spot silicon price in East China remained stable compared with yesterday. On the supply side, the weekly operating rate in Xinjiang has remained stable, and leading enterprises have no new production plans; there is also no large - scale resumption of production willingness in Yunnan and Sichuan production areas, and the overall supply side is relatively stable. On the demand side, the weekly production of polysilicon is flat, the price has dropped significantly, the industry is in the loss range, and with the expectation of the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy in April, the export orders of organic silicon may weaken periodically, and the overall downstream demand is weak. In general, the current industrial silicon market presents a situation of weak supply and demand, and the social inventory continues to run at a high level, maintaining fluctuations around 550,000 tons. It is expected that the silicon price will continue to oscillate in the short term [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to run weakly, closing at 35,730 yuan/ton. On the demand side, affected by the cancellation of the export tax rebate, coupled with the limited large - scale start of domestic demand, the component production schedule in April is expected to be lowered, and the component inventory in March has increased significantly compared with last month, providing weak support for upstream raw materials. In the spot market, the polysilicon quote continued to be lowered. The SMM's N - type dense material quote is 40,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,000 yuan/ton compared with yesterday. Recently, the sales volume of spot enterprises has increased, driving the inventory to decline marginally. The futures price has approached 35,000 yuan/ton, and according to the public cost calculation, it is close to the cash cost of leading enterprises. Although the medium - term trend is still bearish, the short - term downward space is limited [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current global market is significantly affected by the Iran-US conflict, leading to increased volatility in various asset prices. Central banks around the world are cautious about monetary policy, and inflation concerns are rising. Different industries are facing different supply and demand situations and price trends, and investors need to pay attention to geopolitical risks and market changes [4][8][36] - In the short term, due to the uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the impact of inflation expectations, the prices of most commodities will maintain a high - volatility pattern. Some industries may face short - term price corrections, but in the long term, the upward trend of the commodity market may not end [36][42] Summary by Directory Macro - Financial Index Futures - **Market Information**: Trump's statement on the Iran - US potential agreement and Iran's denial, changes in Fed interest rate hike expectations, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac's response to Trump's directive, and the significant increase in WuXi AppTec's net profit in 2025 [2] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Iran - US conflict affects global risk appetite, inflation causes the decline of Fed rate - cut expectations, and it is recommended to pay attention to the change of the war situation and control risks [4] Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The decline of the main contracts of treasury bonds, the issuance of central bank bills in Hong Kong, the rise of the US 2 - year treasury bond yield, and the net withdrawal of funds by the central bank [5] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The economic data at the beginning of the year improved, but the sustainability of economic recovery needs to be observed. Inflation pressure may put pressure on the bond market, and it is expected that the bond market will be weakly volatile in the short term [6] Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The price changes of gold and silver in the domestic and international markets, the Fed's decision to maintain the interest rate, and the different stances of Fed officials on interest rate hikes [7] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The escalation of the Iran - US war leads to inflation concerns, central banks are cautious about monetary policy, and the strengthening of the US dollar and US bond yields suppresses the valuation of precious metals. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish [8] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of copper first declined and then rose due to the Middle East situation, the increase of LME inventory, the decrease of domestic social inventory, and the positive downstream procurement [10] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the Middle East situation has eased, the conflict may continue. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the consumption sentiment has improved. The copper price may continue to test the bottom in the short term [11] Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum rose due to the improvement of market risk preference, the decrease of inventory, and the increase of downstream procurement [12] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market risk sentiment has not reversed, and the supply concern has eased. The overseas supply is expected to be tight, and the domestic demand improvement may drive inventory reduction. The aluminum price may be weakly volatile in the short term [13] Zinc - **Market Information**: The decline of zinc price, the change of inventory, and the active replenishment of downstream enterprises [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc industry is in a weak situation, the zinc price is in a downward trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to downstream replenishment, Fed policy, and geopolitical conflicts [15] Lead - **Market Information**: The rise of lead price, the change of inventory, and the improvement of smelting enterprise operation [16] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is at the lower edge of the long - term shock range, and there are both support and pressure factors. The volatility of lead price increases, and there is a possibility of further decline [16] Nickel - **Market Information**: The decline of nickel price, the stability of spot premium, and the stability of raw material price [17] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the short term, nickel price may follow the weak trend, but in the medium term, the supply - demand improvement supports the price. It is recommended to operate in the range [18] Tin - **Market Information**: The decline of tin price, the decrease of inventory, and the improvement of production and demand [19] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of tin is still constrained by raw materials, the demand is weakly repaired, and the tin price is expected to be weakly volatile [20] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The decline of the spot index of lithium carbonate and the rise of the futures contract price [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are strong, and the short - term price is supported. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes of position, industry events, and spot premium [21] Alumina - **Market Information**: The rise of alumina index, the change of basis, and the increase of inventory [23] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The ore price is expected to rise, the supply of alumina is tightened in the short term but oversupplied in the long term. It is recommended to wait and see [24] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The decline of stainless steel price, the change of inventory, and the stability of raw material price [25] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The stainless steel market is in a game situation of weak macro and demand and strong support from the ore end. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The decline of cast aluminum alloy price, the decrease of inventory, and the narrowing of the price difference [26] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is supported, and the demand is expected to improve, so the short - term price has certain support [28] Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The rise of steel price, the change of inventory, and the change of spot price [30] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel market is in a "weak balance" state, the demand is marginally improved, and the inventory is gradually reduced. It is necessary to pay attention to the release of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price on cost [31] Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The rise of iron ore price, the change of inventory, and the change of basis [32] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas supply of iron ore fluctuates at a high level, the demand is gradually recovering, and the ore price is expected to be volatile at a high level [33] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The sharp rise of coking coal and coke prices, the change of spot price, and the change of basis [34] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is in a stagflation and recession trading environment, and the black sector may be supported. The short - term fundamentals of coking coal and coke are relatively loose, and it is recommended to operate short - term or wait and see [36][37] Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The rise of glass and soda ash prices, the change of inventory, and the change of position [38][39] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The glass market is expected to be widely volatile, and the soda ash market is expected to be low - level and widely volatile [38][40] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The rise of ferrosilicon price, the impact of typhoon on the Australian mining area, and the change of basis [41] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is affected by stagflation and recession, and the black sector may be supported. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, while that of ferrosilicon is good. It is necessary to pay attention to the cost and supply - side factors [42][43] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The rise of industrial silicon price, the decline of polysilicon price, and the change of inventory [44][47] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of industrial silicon is slightly increased, the demand improvement is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile. The polysilicon market is weak, and the price is expected to find the bottom in a volatile way [46][48] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rise of butadiene rubber, the different views of long and short positions on natural rubber, and the change of tire enterprise operation and inventory [50][51][52] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to trade flexibly according to the disk, set stop - losses, and hold the hedging position [54] Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The rise of crude oil and refined oil prices [55] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to configure short - term bearish positions on crude oil, widen the price difference of different oil types, short the cracking spread of high - sulfur fuel oil, and short the cross - regional spread of INE - WTI [56] Methanol - **Market Information**: The change of methanol spot and futures prices [57] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Methanol has included the geopolitical premium, and it is recommended to take profits at high prices [58] Urea - **Market Information**: The change of urea spot and futures prices [59] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of urea are both strong, and it is recommended to short at high prices. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [60] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The change of pure benzene and styrene prices, the change of basis, and the change of supply and demand [61] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, the supply is relatively wide, and the inventory is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see [62] PVC - **Market Information**: The rise of PVC price, the change of cost, and the change of supply and demand [63] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term supply of PVC is at a high level, but there are expectations of production reduction and maintenance. The demand is gradually recovering, and the price may rise in the short term [65] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The rise of ethylene glycol price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [66] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to decline, the demand is gradually recovering, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [67] PTA - **Market Information**: The rise of PTA price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [68] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to rise. The price may rise, but attention should be paid to risks [69][70] p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The rise of p - xylene price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [71] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is expected to decline, the downstream demand is increasing, and the inventory is expected to be reduced. The valuation is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to risks [72] Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The rise of PE price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [73] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PE price is affected by the Middle East situation. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is recovering. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the shipping volume in the Strait of Hormuz increases [74] Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The rise of PP price, the change of supply and demand, and the change of inventory [75] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of PP is expected to be stable, the supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is recovering. The short - term price is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the long - term price is affected by production mismatch [77] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The decline of pig price, the weak downstream demand, and the difficulty of farmers' sales [79] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of live pigs is concentrated, the demand is limited, and the short - term price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to wait and see [80] Eggs - **Market Information**: The stability of egg price, the normal supply, and the stable market sales [81] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The egg production capacity is expected to decline, but the supply is still high. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and the long - term price may decline. It is recommended to short on rebounds [82] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The adjustment of the predicted planting area of US corn and soybeans, the change of US soybean export data, and the change of soybean inventory and crushing rate [83] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The USDA report is neutral, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to the impact of geopolitical risks on protein meal prices [84] Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The policies and production data of Indonesia and Malaysia's palm oil, the change of domestic and international palm oil inventory, and the export data of Malaysia [85] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The rise of crude oil price drives the rise of oil and fat prices. In the medium term, the price of oils and fats is expected to rise [86] Sugar - **Market Information**: The change of domestic and international sugar production and import data, and the prediction of global sugar production [87] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The raw sugar price is at a discount to the Brazilian ethanol conversion price, and there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new sugar - cane season. The domestic sugar price may rebound, and it is recommended to buy on dips [88] Cotton - **Market Information**: The change of domestic and international cotton import and export data, the increase of import quota, the change of spinning mill operation and inventory, and the prediction of global cotton production [89] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase of import quota is short - term negative for Zhengzhou cotton price and positive for US cotton price. In the medium term, the downstream operation is improving, and it is recommended to buy on dips [90]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The copper price decreased due to the geopolitical situation and Fed's stance, with the key support level broken and the center of gravity shifting down. The alumina price is under pressure with new capacity coming online. The aluminum price is dragged down by the financial attribute due to the Middle - East situation. Other metals like zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, etc. also have their respective price trends influenced by factors such as supply - demand, geopolitics, and cost [1][3][8][14] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2605 closed at 94,420 yuan/ton, down 4.52%, and the Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 8,491 lots to 584,000 lots. The average price of 1 electrolytic copper in the spot market was 95,600 yuan/ton, down 3,360 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - **Alumina**: The alumina 2505 contract fell 38 yuan/ton to 3,027 yuan/ton, and the weighted positions increased by 1,330 lots. The spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [8] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum 2605 contract decreased by 655 yuan to 24,180 yuan/ton, and the positions decreased by 39,600 lots [14] - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc 2605 fell 3.11% to 22,705 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index positions increased by 3,983 lots to 209,700 lots. The spot market trading was not as good as the previous day [23] - **Lead**: The Shanghai lead 2605 fell 1.59% to 16,415 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index positions increased by 2,146 lots to 135,100 lots. The spot market trading was light [27] - **Nickel**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2605 fell 3,990 to 131,550 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 16,909 to 330,296 lots. The spot premiums of different nickel types changed [32] - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract of stainless steel SS2605 fell 200 to 13,855 yuan/ton, and the index positions increased by 9,613 to 182,402 lots. The spot prices of different resources were within certain ranges [38] - **Tin**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2604 closed at 345,730 yuan/ton, down 24,490 yuan/ton or 6.61%, and the positions increased by 2,114 lots to 80,600 lots. The spot price continued to decline [41] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The main contract of carbonate lithium 2605 fell 9,700 to 142,600 yuan/ton, and the index positions decreased by 25,270 to 595,501 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade carbonate lithium both decreased [55] 3.2 Important Information - **Inflation and Fed Policy**: The US February PPI was 3.4% year - on - year, and the core PPI was 3.9%, a one - year high. The Fed kept the interest rate unchanged, raised the inflation expectation, and still expected to cut interest rates once this year [2][15] - **Geopolitical Situation**: The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran continued, and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard launched a large - scale missile attack on oil and energy facilities related to the US in the region [15][19] - **Inventory Information**: As of March 19, the SMM national mainstream copper inventory decreased by 8.85% week - on - week to 523,100 tons; the SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased to 266,100 tons; the SMM lead ingot five - region social inventory reached 78,000 tons as of March 16 [2][24][29] - **Industry News**: Guinea plans to cut bauxite exports in early April; some new alumina production lines in China are expected to be put into trial production; GlobalData said that the global photovoltaic installed capacity will reach nearly 6 terawatts by 2031 [9][48] 3.3 Logic Analysis - **Copper**: The geopolitical situation and Fed's stance led to a decrease in copper price. The supply of copper ore was tight, and the downstream pricing enthusiasm declined [3] - **Alumina**: Guinea's bauxite export policy needs to be monitored. The new domestic alumina capacity needs time to be fully released, and the subsequent pressure on alumina comes from the supply side [10] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The Middle - East situation led to concerns about economic slowdown, and the financial attribute dragged down the aluminum price [16] - **Zinc**: The non - ferrous sector was under pressure due to macro factors. The domestic refined zinc supply increased, but the demand recovery was insufficient. However, the expected reduction of overseas smelters and low LME inventory provided some support [25] - **Lead**: The increase in social inventory and inflow of imported lead suppressed the lead price, but the loss of secondary lead smelters provided some support [30] - **Nickel**: The weakening copper price and the tense Middle - East situation affected the nickel price. The nickel ore price was firm, but the nickel - iron price was under pressure [35] - **Stainless Steel**: The overseas manufacturing contraction led to some orders flowing back to China, but the concern about global economic recession still dominated the price trend [39] - **Tin**: The impact of Indonesia's potential tin export ban was limited. The recovery of tin production in Myanmar and the weak downstream demand affected the tin price [43] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The negative growth of new - energy vehicle sales in March and the expected production of Jiangxi Xikeng Mine affected the supply - demand relationship, and the price center shifted down [57] 3.4 Trading Strategy - **Copper**: Unilateral: The price broke the key support level and the center of gravity shifted down; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [5][6][7] - **Alumina**: Unilateral: New capacity is coming soon, and the alumina price is under pressure; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [12] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Unilateral: Weak operation with the sector; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [17][18] - **Zinc**: Unilateral: The zinc price may be weak in the short term due to macro and fundamental factors; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [26] - **Lead**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [31] - **Nickel**: Unilateral: The price fluctuates weakly; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [36][37] - **Stainless Steel**: Unilateral: Wait for the macro situation to stabilize; Arbitrage: Wait and see [41] - **Tin**: Unilateral: The tin price remains weak; Options: Wait and see [44] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Unilateral: The oscillation range moves down; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [58][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that Shanghai zinc will fluctuate weakly and suggests paying attention to the support at the 22,400 yuan/ton level [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 22,690 yuan/ton, down 635 yuan; the 05 - 06 month contract spread of Shanghai zinc is -25 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [3] - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,132.5 US dollars/ton, down 100.5 US dollars; the total position of Shanghai zinc is 209,707 lots, up 3,983 lots [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is -3,672 lots, down 1,813 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt is 0 tons, unchanged [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 147,348 tons, up 12,427 tons; the LME inventory is 118,025 tons, down 350 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,820 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,090 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan [3] - The basis of the ZN main contract is 130 yuan/ton, up 255 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is -41.47 US dollars/ton, up 6.7 US dollars [3] - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20,070 yuan/ton, down 470 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is -35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is -7,700 tons, down 4,900 tons [3] - The global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1.0627 million tons, down 11,900 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, up 21,000 tons [3] - The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons, down 53,900 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons, down 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons, down 15,548.89 tons [3] - The social inventory of zinc is 236,000 tons, up 4,700 tons [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, down 60,000 tons [3] - The new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, up 53.1326 million square meters; the housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, up 208.942 million square meters [3] - The automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107,500 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units [3] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money call option is 22.68%, down 0.08%; the 20 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 21.39%, down 0.28% [3] - The implied volatility of the zinc at - the - money put option is 22.68%, down 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the zinc at - the - money option is 20.01%, down 0.43% [3] 3.7 Industry News - Trump said that his visit to China might be postponed by five to six weeks, and the Foreign Ministry responded that the head - of - state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable leading role in Sino - US relations, and the two sides will continue to communicate on this matter [3] - The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged as expected, pointed out the uncertainty of the Middle East situation, raised the inflation forecast, and still expected to cut interest rates once this year. Powell said that there will be no rate cut before inflation improves, and he will not leave the Fed during the investigation and will serve as the interim chairman if necessary. The "New Fed Wire" said that the Iran war threat may force the Fed to extend its fight against inflation [3] - Iran launched a large - scale missile attack on US - related energy facilities, targeting three Middle Eastern countries. Trump allegedly does not want to attack such facilities again for the time being. Part of Iran's largest gas field was shut down, which was the first time since the conflict broke out. The US military plans to mass - produce Iranian suicide drones. Trump said he is not ready to end the conflict and is not worried about Iran becoming "another Vietnam" [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on March 18, domestic futures main contracts mostly declined. Methanol rose over 3%, while polysilicon dropped over 5% and lithium carbonate declined over 4%. Different varieties have different market performances and influencing factors, and investors are advised to pay attention to market dynamics and risk control [6] 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Commodity Performance - **Futures Market Overview**: As of the close on March 18, domestic futures main contracts mostly declined. Methanol rose over 3%, ethylene glycol (EG) rose over 1%; in terms of declines, polysilicon dropped over 5%, lithium carbonate declined over 4%, and many other varieties such as industrial silicon and红枣 dropped over 2%. In the stock index futures, the CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) main contract rose 0.13%, the Shanghai 50 stock index futures (IH) main contract dropped 0.38%, the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) main contract rose 0.77%, and the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) main contract rose 0.68%. In the bond futures, the 2 - year bond futures (TS), 5 - year bond futures (TF), 10 - year bond futures (T), and 30 - year bond futures (TL) main contracts all rose. In terms of capital flow, methanol 2605, Shanghai silver 2606, and ten - year bond 2606 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2603, Shanghai - Shenzhen 2603, and CSI 2603 had capital outflows [6][7] 3.2 Market Analysis - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper opened low and moved lower, falling during the day. The supply of copper concentrates in February 2026 increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The domestic copper concentrate inventory is relatively low, and the shortage of copper resources supports the copper price. The substitution of recycled copper has weakened. The production of electrolytic copper increased in March. The demand of the copper product end started to pick up, but the terminal data was not optimistic. The production and sales of new energy vehicles declined year - on - year. With the Fed's interest - rate meeting approaching, the market expects the interest rate to remain unchanged in March. The rising oil price and inflation pressure suppress the copper price, and the copper price is under pressure [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate opened low and moved lower, falling over 4% during the day. The price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate declined. The export of lithium concentrates in Zimbabwe is temporarily restricted, but it does not affect the production. The upstream production is gradually increasing, but there is a high probability of domestic lithium ore resumption. The inventory is being depleted, but the rate of depletion is narrowing. The downstream inventory is accumulating, but the rate of accumulation is slowing. The demand growth is showing a weakening trend. Although the domestic demand is weak, the terminal export is increasing. The lithium carbonate market is in a shock stage, and the price has a bottom support [11] - **Crude Oil**: The EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventory exceeded expectations, but the refined oil inventory decreased significantly, resulting in a decrease in the overall oil product inventory. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continues. Iran's oil production and export are large, and the Strait of Hormuz is almost closed, leading to production cuts in Middle - Eastern oil - producing countries. Although some measures have been taken to relieve the short - term supply pressure, the supply is still tight. The risk of the crude oil price rising remains, and the Middle - East situation has a great impact on the crude oil price [12][13] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt's supply - end operating rate decreased slightly last week and is at a low level in the same period in recent years. The expected production in March 2026 increased month - on - month but decreased year - on - year. The downstream operating rate mostly increased after the Spring Festival. The inventory rate of asphalt plants remained unchanged, and the inventory rate of refineries is at the lowest level in recent years. The price in Shandong is stable. Due to the impact of the Middle - East situation on raw material supply, the asphalt price is expected to be strong and volatile, following the crude oil price [14][16] - **PP**: As of the week of March 13, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased slightly. The enterprise operating rate is at a low level, and the production ratio of standard products decreased. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost of raw materials remains high due to the Middle - East situation. The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved. Although the downstream is resistant to high prices, the PP price is expected to be strong and volatile [17] - **Plastic**: On March 18, the plastic operating rate remained stable at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost of raw materials remains high. The supply has new capacity put into operation in the early stage, and the operating rate has decreased recently. The downstream demand has increased after the Lantern Festival. The domestic supply - demand pattern has improved. Although the downstream is resistant to high prices, the plastic price is expected to be strong and volatile [18][19] - **PVC**: The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased slightly and is at a relatively high neutral level in the same period in recent years. The downstream operating rate increased after the Spring Festival, but it is still lower than the same period last year. The export inquiry has improved. The social inventory is still high, and the real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage. Due to the impact of the Middle - East situation on raw material supply, the PVC price is expected to be strong and volatile [20] - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal opened high and moved low, falling over 1% in the afternoon. The Mongolian coal customs clearance decreased slightly, and the domestic coal production resumed. The inventory of coking coal decreased significantly, and the downstream replenished the inventory. The production of coke has not increased significantly, and the steel - mill profit has recovered, but the start - up speed is slower than in previous years. The coal fundamentals are weak, and the future trend depends on the demand [22] - **Urea**: Urea opened low and moved low, falling nearly 2% during the day. The upstream factory quotation is stable, and the trading activity decreased. The market supply of urea is abundant before the end of the month. The downstream demand comes from both agriculture and industry. The inventory has decreased significantly. The urea price fell today due to the dissipation of the previous emotional interference. The supply and demand are both strengthening, and the price is expected to be in a high - level shock [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report anticipates that Shanghai zinc will fluctuate weakly, and investors should pay attention to the key support level of 23,000 yuan below [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract is 23,325 yuan/ton, down 375 yuan; the 05 - 06 contract spread of Shanghai zinc is -40 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [3]. - The LME three - month zinc quotation is 3,233 US dollars/ton, down 46 US dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai zinc is 205,724 lots, up 12,840 lots [3]. - The net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is -1,859 lots, down 3,986 lots; the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [3]. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 147,348 tons, up 12,427 tons; the LME inventory is 118,375 tons, up 20,875 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 23,200 yuan/ton, down 670 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,420 yuan/ton, down 1,460 yuan [3]. - The basis of the ZN main contract is -125 yuan/ton, down 295 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is -48.17 US dollars/ton, down 4.92 US dollars [3]. - The factory price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 20,540 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16,100 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan [3]. - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is -35,700 tons, down 14,700 tons; the LIZSG zinc supply - demand balance is -7,700 tons, down 4,900 tons [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The global zinc ore production of ILZSG is 1.0627 million tons, down 11,900 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 675,000 tons, up 21,000 tons [3]. - The zinc ore import volume is 462,600 tons, down 53,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 8,760.85 tons, down 9,469.07 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 27,266.66 tons, down 15,548.89 tons [3]. - The social zinc inventory is 236,000 tons, up 4,700 tons [3]. - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.36 million tons, down 60,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly new housing construction area is 587.6996 million square meters, up 53.1326 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 603.4813 million square meters, up 208.942 million square meters [3]. - The monthly automobile production is 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107,500 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 22.76%, down 1.27 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 22.76%, down 1.27 percentage points [3]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 21.39%, up 0.28 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 20.01%, down 0.43 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - The Ministry of Finance will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy in 2026, focusing on seven aspects such as supporting the construction of a strong domestic market and accelerating high - level scientific and technological self - reliance [3]. - The State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council emphasizes focusing on "two important" and "two new" to plan and implement a number of major projects and landmark projects in advance [3]. - The National Energy Administration shows that from January to February, the cumulative social electricity consumption is 1.6546 trillion kWh, with a year - on - year increase of 6.1%, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year [3]. - "The Fed Whisperer" says the Fed tends to remain silent this week, and recent shocks are two - way factors [3]. - US President Trump requests to postpone the China - US summit meeting due to the Iran conflict, and China says both sides are in communication [3]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - The upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc ore production has a seasonal decline; domestic smelters' competition for domestic ore procurement increases, and processing fees at home and abroad remain low, but the sulfuric acid price is rising, and domestic smelters' profits are expanding [3]. - After the Spring Festival, the enthusiasm of smelters to resume work is expected to increase. Recently, the Shanghai - London ratio has rebounded, and the export window has closed again [3]. - On the demand side, the downstream market is still in the off - season. The real estate sector is a drag, while the infrastructure and home appliance sectors are slowly recovering, lacking obvious increments, and the policy support in the automotive and other fields brings some highlights [3]. - Downstream markets mainly purchase on - demand at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, downstream purchases are still light, the spot premium is at a low level, and domestic social inventory continues to increase; LME zinc inventory has a slight decline, and the spot premium remains low [3]. 3.9 Technical Analysis - The open interest increases while the price falls, indicating a strong bearish atmosphere [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - share market is volatile and weak. Short - term risk defense is the main strategy for stock index futures, while the domestic equity market may be more resilient than overseas ones. For bond futures, the short - term logic is inflation, and the curve is likely to remain steep. Consider waiting for inflation expectations to ferment and then bet on future monetary easing [14][15]. - For steel and ore, short - term steel long - positions should take profits at high points, and the previous short - straddle strategy should be held. For iron ore, the short - straddle strategy should be maintained, and the 05 - 09 positive spread should take profits around 35 [16][18]. - Double - coking prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips from the perspective of valuation and risk - return ratio. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to remain in wide - range fluctuations [19]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended. Be cautious about the unexpected price increase caused by the further fermentation of energy sentiment [20]. - For soda ash and glass, the current strategy is to wait and see. Pay attention to the supply stability of leading enterprises, new - capacity production progress, and demand recovery [21]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to inventory changes and the macro - environment. Zinc should be treated with a bearish - biased and volatile mindset, and short - positions in lead should take profits [24][26]. - Lithium carbonate prices will fluctuate widely in the short term. In the medium - and long - term, lithium - battery demand remains positive [28]. - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and continue to focus on short - straddle option opportunities. Polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. - Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels. Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at high points during the rebound. Egg prices have limited upward space in the short term, and the 05 - 07 contracts may be weak. Apple prices are expected to be strong. Corn prices should be chased cautiously, and a 5 - 7 reverse spread can be considered. Red dates are expected to fluctuate weakly. Hog prices are likely to remain at a low level [34][36][39][41][42][43][44]. - Crude oil prices are likely to rise due to supply shortages. Fuel oil is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation. Polyolefin prices may be slightly supported in the short term, with a medium - term large - range fluctuation and long - term dependence on the end of the war. Rubber trading should be cautious, and pay attention to the spread and selling put options after full tapping. Synthetic rubber prices are driven by costs and may have high volatility in the short term. Methanol prices may be slightly strong in the short term, but may correct if the war eases. Caustic soda prices are subject to supply - demand factors and should be traded according to the market rhythm. Asphalt prices follow oil prices. PVC prices may be strong in the short term but are subject to supply changes. The polyester industry chain should be treated with a cautious and bullish attitude. LPG is expected to remain strong but relatively weaker than crude oil [46][48][49][50][51][53][55][56][58][59]. - Paper pulp prices have short - term support, and attention should be paid to inventory and price increases of finished products. Log prices are affected by the macro - environment and port inventory. Urea prices should follow the trend of chemical futures and consider short - positions [61][62]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The "15th Five - Year Plan" was officially released on March 13. The sixth round of China - US economic and trade consultations will be held from March 14 to 17. The US may launch a 301 investigation against China [8]. - Apple will lower the commission rate in the Chinese App Store from 30% to 25% starting from March 15. The State Council passed the key work division plan for 2026 and studied the negative - list management mechanism for local fiscal subsidies [8][9]. - In the first two months of this year, RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan, and the increment of social financing scale was 9.6 trillion yuan. The central bank will conduct a 500 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase operation on March 16, with a reduction of 100 billion yuan compared to the maturity amount [9]. - The US 1 - month core PCE increased by 3.1% year - on - year. The US GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter of last year was revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%. Saudi Arabia will cut oil production by about 2 million barrels per day [10][11]. - The US attacked Iran's oil export hub, and the global energy market is facing a supply crisis. The global chemical industry is experiencing "large - scale force majeure" [11][12]. 3.2 Macro Finance 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - The A - share market is weak, with technology stocks adjusting. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.82% to 4095.45 points. Short - term risk defense is the main strategy due to geopolitical risks [14]. 3.2.2 Bond Futures - The money market is balanced and loose. The short - term logic of the bond market is inflation, and the curve is steep. Consider waiting for inflation expectations to ferment and then bet on future monetary easing [15]. 3.3 Black Metals 3.3.1 Steel and Ore - Steel orders have improved, but high inventory suppresses prices. Iron ore supply and demand are both strong, and short - term steel long - positions should take profits at high points. The iron ore short - straddle strategy should be held [16][18]. 3.3.2 Coal and Coke - Double - coking prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is expected to remain in wide - range fluctuations [19]. 3.3.3 Ferrosilicon - The absolute price of double - silicon is still high. Short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended, and be cautious about the unexpected price increase caused by energy sentiment [20]. 3.3.4 Soda Ash and Glass - The current strategy is to wait and see. Pay attention to the supply stability of leading enterprises, new - capacity production progress, and demand recovery [21]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 3.4.1 Copper - Geopolitical tensions increase inflationary pressure, and high inventory suppresses prices. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and pay attention to inventory and the macro - environment [24]. 3.4.2 Zinc - Domestic zinc inventories continue to increase, and consumption is weak. Zinc prices are expected to be bearish and volatile in the short term [26]. 3.4.3 Lead - Lead inventories increase, and prices are weak. Short - positions in lead should take profits [26]. 3.4.4 Lithium Carbonate - Prices will fluctuate widely in the short term. In the medium - and long - term, lithium - battery demand remains positive [28]. 3.4.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and continue to focus on short - straddle option opportunities. Polysilicon is expected to be weak and volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see [30]. 3.5 Agricultural Products 3.5.1 Cotton - Prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels. Pay attention to the "Golden March and Silver April" demand and geopolitical impacts [34]. 3.5.2 Sugar - Prices are expected to fluctuate at high points during the rebound. Global sugar supply forecasts are divided, and domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure [36]. 3.5.3 Eggs - Prices have limited upward space in the short term, and the 05 - 07 contracts may be weak. Pay attention to feed prices and chicken inventory [39]. 3.5.4 Apples - High - quality apple prices are expected to be strong. The market is supported by low inventory and pre - holiday demand [41]. 3.5.5 Corn - Prices should be chased cautiously, and a 5 - 7 reverse spread can be considered. Pay attention to new - season wheat production and policy grain supply [42]. 3.5.6 Red Dates - Prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The market will enter the off - season, and high inventory is a pressure [43]. 3.5.7 Hogs - The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak. Prices are likely to remain at a low level, and short positions in near - month contracts can be considered [44]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals 3.6.1 Crude Oil - Supply shortages may lead to price increases. The market is facing a supply risk of over 10 million barrels per day [46]. 3.6.2 Fuel Oil - It is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation. Pay attention to the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [48]. 3.6.3 Polyolefin - Prices may be slightly supported in the short term, with a medium - term large - range fluctuation and long - term dependence on the end of the war. Pay attention to spot market sentiment [49]. 3.6.4 Rubber - Trading should be cautious. Pay attention to the spread and selling put options after full tapping. Consider the impact of conflicts on tire exports and weather conditions [50]. 3.6.5 Synthetic Rubber - Prices are driven by costs and may have high volatility in the short term. Pay attention to raw material supply and energy prices [51]. 3.6.6 Methanol - Prices may be slightly strong in the short term, but may correct if the war eases. Pay attention to spring maintenance and Iranian supply [53]. 3.6.7 Caustic Soda - Prices are subject to supply - demand factors. The long - position logic is supply reduction and export growth, while the short - position logic is weak domestic demand and high - priced futures [55]. 3.6.8 Asphalt - Prices follow oil prices. Demand is in the off - season, and high prices suppress speculative demand [55]. 3.6.9 PVC - Prices may be strong in the short term but are subject to supply changes. Pay attention to the reduction and expansion of ethylene production [56]. 3.6.10 Polyester Industry Chain - The supply - contraction expectation is the main trading logic. Pay attention to device maintenance and demand recovery [58]. 3.6.11 LPG - It is expected to remain strong but relatively weaker than crude oil. Pay attention to supply risks from the Middle East and demand changes [59]. 3.7 Others 3.7.1 Paper Pulp - Prices have short - term support. Pay attention to inventory and price increases of finished products [61]. 3.7.2 Logs - Prices are affected by the macro - environment and port inventory. Pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict and port inventory changes [61]. 3.7.3 Urea - Prices should follow the trend of chemical futures and consider short - positions. Pay attention to overseas disturbances and domestic policies [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai zinc market is expected to fluctuate weakly, breaking below the MA60 support, and attention should be paid to the 2.37 level below [7] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of -0.49% and an amplitude of 1.77%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 24,140 yuan/ton [7] - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, the US will launch a 301 investigation against 16 trading partners including China, the EU, India, and Japan. The situation in the Middle East has escalated, with multiple drone attacks in Dubai and oil prices breaking through the $100 mark. Fundamentally, the import volume of upstream zinc ore is at a high level, but domestic zinc mines are reducing production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters to purchase domestic ore has increased, and the processing fees at home and abroad remain low. However, the sulfuric acid price has strengthened, and the profits of domestic smelters have expanded. It is expected that the enthusiasm of smelters to resume work after the festival will increase. Recently, the Shanghai-London ratio has rebounded, and the export window has closed again. On the demand side, the downstream market is still in the off-season, and the real estate sector is a drag. The infrastructure and home appliance sectors are slowly recovering, still lacking obvious increments, while policies in the automotive and other fields have brought some highlights. The downstream market mainly purchases on demand at low prices. Recently, zinc prices have fallen, but downstream purchases are still light, the spot premium is at a low level, and domestic social inventories continue to increase. LME zinc inventories have decreased slightly, and the spot premium remains low. Technically, the position has increased while the price has fallen, and the bearish sentiment has increased [7] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of March 13, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 24,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan/ton or 0.49% compared to March 6, 2026. As of March 12, 2026, the closing price of London zinc was $3,314.5/ton, an increase of $84.5/ton or 2.62% compared to March 6, 2026 [12] - **Net Position of Top 20 in Shanghai Zinc**: As of March 13, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 4,338 lots, an increase of 2,130 lots compared to March 6, 2026. As of March 13, 2026, the position volume of Shanghai zinc was 183,422 lots, a decrease of 6,259 lots or 3.3% compared to March 6, 2026 [17] - **Price Spreads**: As of March 13, 2026, the aluminum-zinc futures price spread was -820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 365 yuan/ton compared to March 6, 2026. As of March 13, 2026, the lead-zinc futures price spread was 7,585 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to March 6, 2026 [20] - **Spot Premiums**: As of March 13, 2026, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 24,110 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton or 0.12% compared to March 6, 2026. The spot discount was 165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to last week. As of March 12, 2026, the LME zinc near-month to 3-month spread was -$44.64/ton, a decrease of $16.43/ton compared to March 5, 2026 [24] - **Inventory Changes**: As of March 12, 2026, the LME refined zinc inventory was 98,750 tons, an increase of 3,750 tons or 3.95% compared to March 5, 2026. As of March 13, 2026, the Shanghai Futures Exchange refined zinc inventory was 147,348 tons, an increase of 12,427 tons or 9.21% compared to last week. As of March 12, 2026, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 231,300 tons, an increase of 17,900 tons or 8.39% compared to March 5, 2026 [28] 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream - Zinc Ore**: In December 2025, the global zinc ore output was 1.0799 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 2.03% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.27%. In December 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 462,599.36 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.44% and a year-on-year increase of 1.15% [34] - **Supply - Global Refined Zinc**: In December 2025, the global refined zinc output was 1.1977 million tons, an increase of 57,100 tons or 5.01% compared to the same period last year. The global refined zinc consumption was 1.2398 million tons, an increase of 65,100 tons or 5.54% compared to the same period last year. The global refined zinc deficit was 42,100 tons, compared to a deficit of 34,100 tons in the same period last year. According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS) report, the global zinc market supply-demand balance in November 2025 was 29,000 tons [38][39] - **Supply - Refined Zinc Output**: In December 2025, the zinc output was 675,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative zinc output was 7.528 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.3% [42] - **Supply - Refined Zinc Imports and Exports**: In December 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 8,760.85 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 73.4%. The refined zinc export volume was 27,266.66 tons, a year-on-year increase of 524.21% [45] - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheets**: In January 2026, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 1.0667 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 61.59%. In December 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 31,800 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 43.22%. The export volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 404,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 45.95% [48][49] - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to December 2025, the new housing construction area was 587.6996 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 20.47%. The housing completion area was 603.4813 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 23.9%. From January to December 2025, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 9.311716 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.4%. Among them, personal mortgage loans were 1.285196 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.8% [54][55] - **Downstream - Infrastructure Investment**: In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 compared to the previous month and a decrease of 1.1 compared to the same period last year. From January to December 2025, the infrastructure investment decreased by -1.48% year-on-year [60][61] - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In December 2025, the refrigerator output was 10.0115 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative refrigerator output was 109.2436 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%. In December 2025, the air conditioner output was 21.6289 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative air conditioner output was 266.9749 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [63] - **Downstream - Automobiles**: In February 2026, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 1.805 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 15.2%. The production volume of Chinese automobiles was 1.672 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 20.49% [67]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The global market risk preference has risen due to the signal of easing in the Middle East situation, but there are still uncertainties in the short - term, and most markets are expected to be volatile [2]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, and different commodities have different trends and influencing factors [1][2][3]. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: The short - term is expected to be mainly volatile due to factors such as geopolitical risks and the need to wait for more positive policy signals after the Two Sessions [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the short - term export and import data are good, it is difficult to change the overall economic judgment. The value of treasury bonds has risen after the decline, and the negative impact from the Middle East has not completely dissipated [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: The long - term upward basis still exists, but in the short - term, the risk of postponed interest - rate cut expectations needs to be vigilant [3]. - **Gold and Silver**: The prices are affected by factors such as the Fed's monetary policy expectations, geopolitical situations, and trade policy uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and US CPI, PCE data [3][4]. - **Copper**: The price increase is mainly driven by short - covering. The global macro - environment is complex, and both supply and demand are affected by multiple factors [4]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term price is dominated by the war situation and fluctuates sharply [5]. - **Alumina**: The short - term spot price has rebounded, but the medium - to - long - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the release of new production capacity in March [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up relationship with Shanghai Aluminum, and there is strong support below [7]. - **Zinc**: The supply may be affected by the Iran situation and energy costs, and the demand side has inventory pressure. The short - term metal price may be suppressed [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The supply of Indonesian wet - process production lines is volatile, and stainless steel is supported by the peak - season expectation [8]. - **Tin**: The supply is tight, and the demand is starting to resume work. The high inventory suppresses the price, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction speed and the development of the Iran situation [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term demand is affected by the Middle East situation, but the long - term downstream demand growth logic remains unchanged [9]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The industry is at the bottom of the current production - capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" process and the marginal optimization of the supply - demand structure [9]. - **Lead**: The current supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback on the market during the delivery week and the implementation of secondary lead delivery [10][11]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: After the Two Sessions, the real - estate policy is mainly stable, and the steel export faces pressure. The high inventory of hot - rolled coils may lead to price decline [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is relatively strong due to the tight liquidity of spot goods, but the fundamental supply - demand is seasonally weak. The upside space is limited [12]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply pressure is large, and the overall black - metal series has downward pressure, but there is support at the bottom [13]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The short - term cost support is gradually strengthening, but the upward space may be limited due to weak downstream demand and high inventory of plates [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market focuses on the Middle East situation. The development of the US - Iran situation and the subsequent navigation of the Strait of Hormuz are crucial [15]. - **Fuel Oil**: The Asian fuel - oil market remains strong due to supply tightening, increased ship demand, and other factors [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price will follow the cost - end crude oil, and the short - term geopolitical disturbance is the core factor [16]. - **LPG**: The price follows the crude oil, and the Middle East situation needs to be continuously tracked [16]. - **Plastics**: The short - term supply pressure is limited, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively good [17]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war may break the current weak balance of domestic urea [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply may be affected by maintenance, and the inventory performance is better than expected. The price space is limited [18]. - **Glass**: The production and sales are currently weak, and the high inventory in the middle reaches restricts the price increase [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, showing a weak - oscillating trend [20]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The current market is mainly affected by the weak post - Spring Festival demand, and the price has limited upward and downward space [21]. - **Oilseeds**: The price is supported by factors such as planting - cost increase, export improvement, and biodiesel boost. The domestic market will follow the performance of US soybeans in the short - term [21]. - **Oils**: The market is expected to be range - bound, and attention can be paid to the weakening of the price differences between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and rapeseed oil and palm oil [22]. - **Cotton**: The domestic supply - demand tightening expectation supports the price, but the high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton exerts pressure on the upside [23]. - **Eggs**: The short - term demand improvement supports the price to be strong in oscillation, but the upside space is limited [24]. - **Red Dates**: The market focus is on the demand side. The price may remain in a low - level oscillation due to the loose domestic supply - demand [24].