国际铜夜盘收涨0.31%，沪铜收涨0.45%，沪铝收涨0.11%，沪锌收跌0.53%，沪铅收跌0.12%，沪镍收跌 0.51%，沪锡收涨5.65%。氧化铝夜盘收跌0.40%，铝合金收涨0.31%。不锈钢夜盘收涨0.28%。 ...

每经AI快讯，国际铜夜盘收涨0.46%，沪铜收涨0.58%，沪铝收涨1.18%，沪锌收涨0.14%，沪铅收涨 0.27%，沪镍收涨0.11%，沪锡收涨5.52%。氧化铝夜盘收涨0.77%，铝合金收涨1.71%。不锈钢夜盘收涨 0.84%。 ...

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，国际铜夜盘收涨0.32%，沪铜收涨0.25%，沪铝收跌0.61%，沪锌收跌0.67%，沪铅收涨 0.12%，沪镍收涨1.65%，沪锡收涨2.02%。氧化铝夜盘收跌0.39%，铝合金收跌0.43%。不锈钢夜盘收涨 1.03%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - During the Spring Festival, international oil prices continued to rise, with Brent and WTI crude oil reaching new highs since August 2025. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense situation between the US and Iran, are the main drivers of the oil price increase. The next two weeks will be a critical window for the situation, and geopolitical factors will continue to dominate the oil market [1]. - Precious metals showed strong performance during the Spring Festival. With the US - Iran negotiation making no substantial progress and the possibility of US strikes on Iran, the strength of precious metals may continue in the short - term [2]. - For most commodities, the market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal patterns. Some commodities are expected to have price fluctuations, while others are likely to maintain a range - bound trend [3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: During the Spring Festival, international oil prices rose significantly. Geopolitical risks, especially the tense US - Iran situation, are the main factors. The next two weeks are crucial for the situation, and oil prices will be dominated by geopolitical factors [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil**: Due to the sharp rise in geopolitical risks between the US and Iran during the festival, oil prices soared. Fuel oil is expected to follow the upward trend. High - sulfur fuel oil is strongly supported by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak and mainly follows the trend of crude oil [21]. - **Asphalt**: International oil prices strengthened during the holiday, and asphalt is expected to start a catch - up rise on the first trading day after the festival. The asphalt market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the trend of crude oil [22]. Metal Commodities - **Copper**: LME copper prices were basically the same as before the holiday. During the domestic holiday, investment and physical demand were weak, and copper prices fluctuated. Copper inventories increased, and the copper market may strengthen the positive market structure. There is a risk that the unilateral copper price will adjust to the MA60 moving average to attract buyers [3]. - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum had limited fluctuations and a slight increase during the Spring Festival. After the festival, Shanghai aluminum is expected to have high - level oscillations. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation, demand recovery, and the impact of the US - Iran situation on the supply side [4]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc had high - level oscillations during the festival, with limited guidance for Shanghai zinc. After the festival, Shanghai zinc has weak rebound momentum due to short - term oversupply, but strong cost support. It is expected to oscillate between 24,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the oversupply situation remains, and the recovery of TC can be regarded as an opportunity for short - selling at high levels [7]. - **Lead**: The decline of LME lead slowed down near the cost line. After the festival, domestic lead prices are at a low level. Downstream purchases may increase, and recycled lead production has decreased. However, due to the opening of the import window, demand lacks an increase expectation. Shanghai lead is expected to have low - level oscillations between 16,500 - 17,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel is expected to open higher and then oscillate on the first trading day. During the holiday, the external market was generally strong, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data affected the market [9]. - **Tin**: LME tin had a slight increase compared to before the holiday and basically oscillated. The internal and external tin prices are supported by the MA60 moving average. LME tin inventories continued to increase slightly during the festival, and the spot discount narrowed. Tin prices are expected to continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the resumption of supply in the main production areas [10]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Carbonate lithium still has optimistic sentiment in the short - term and is expected to have a strong - biased oscillation. The external market was strong during the holiday, and factors such as the US tariff policy and economic data are favorable [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Before the holiday, industrial silicon rebounded slightly after breaking through the previous low. After the holiday, it is expected to continue to oscillate. The supply side may see the resumption of production of large factories in Xinjiang, while the downstream demand is weak, and the social inventory is at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: During the Spring Festival, spot trading was stagnant. Before the holiday, polysilicon futures had a slight increase and narrowed fluctuations. Although there is cost support, the market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend due to factors such as production reduction and inventory accumulation [13]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Thread & Hot - rolled Coil)**: During the Spring Festival, the external market generally rose, while the domestic spot market was on holiday. The demand for steel decreased, and the inventory accumulated. Due to factors such as poor steel mill profits and weak downstream demand, the iron - water output remained at a relatively low level. With the improvement of the financial market sentiment, the steel price has a certain rebound momentum after the festival [14]. - **Iron Ore**: During the holiday, overseas iron ore swaps weakened. The supply is relatively strong, and the market is worried about oversupply. Although the demand is expected to improve marginally, the supply pressure is greater, and the price is still under pressure [15]. - **Coke & Coking Coal**: During the holiday, the increase in oil prices may have an indirect impact on the black - series commodities. The inventory of coke increased slightly, and the purchasing willingness of traders was average. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the downstream demand is in the off - season. The prices of coke and coking coal are expected to oscillate in a range [16][17]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. The spot price of manganese ore increased slightly, and the downward space of the disk is relatively small. The inventory of manganese ore in ports may start to increase slowly, and the demand side is at a seasonal low level. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [18]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The increase in oil prices during the holiday may have an indirect impact. Some production areas have a decrease in power costs, and the demand side is at a low level. The export demand is stable, and the supply changes little. The price is affected by oversupply and policy expectations [19]. Chemical Commodities - **Urea**: During the Spring Festival, the supply of urea remained at a high level, and production enterprises are expected to accumulate inventory seasonally. With the increase in temperature, the demand for agricultural fertilizer preparation is expected to start, and the production enterprises are expected to reduce inventory after the festival. The short - term market is likely to oscillate and rebound [23]. - **Methanol**: The overseas methanol plant operating rate remains low, and the import volume is expected to decrease after the Spring Festival. The coastal MTO plant operating rate is low, and attention should be paid to the profit repair and restart expectations after the festival. The traditional downstream will resume work one after another, and the inventory in the inland and ports is expected to decrease [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The instability of the US - Iran situation provides support for the cost of pure benzene. The supply during the Spring Festival is relatively high, and the inventory in the East China port is expected to remain at a high level. The downstream demand is expected to improve, and the port inventory may decrease slowly [25]. - **Styrene**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday boosted the cost of styrene, and it may open higher. However, the supply is expected to increase significantly after the festival, while the downstream demand recovery needs time, and the fundamental contradiction is intensified [26]. - **Polypropylene & Plastic**: The increase in international oil prices during the holiday may boost the opening price after the festival. However, due to the inventory accumulation of polyolefin petrochemical enterprises during the Spring Festival and the slow recovery of downstream production enterprises, the fundamental contradiction is intensified [27]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: The PVC industry is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. The cost support is strengthened, and the demand for export is strong. The price is expected to rise. The profit of caustic soda has declined significantly, and the cost support is strengthened. The supply may decrease, and the price is expected to operate near the cost [28]. - **PX & PTA**: The strong oil price provides cost support. PX has new capacity in the second half of the year, while PTA has none. In the first half of the year, it is advisable to take a long position. Based on the PX maintenance and polyester production increase expectations in the second quarter, opportunities for long - term PX processing spreads and positive spreads after the decline of the month - spread can be considered [29]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol is under long - term pressure due to new capacity, but the supply is expected to shrink, and the downward space is limited. In the second quarter, the supply - demand situation may improve due to centralized maintenance and increased demand [30]. - **Short - fiber & Bottle - grade Chips**: Before the holiday, the production of short - fiber and bottle - grade chips decreased, and the inventory was at a low level. After the holiday, the production is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to the terminal production resumption and inventory preparation rhythm [31]. Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean, Soybean Meal & Rapeseed Meal**: During the Spring Festival, US soybeans continued to be strong. The export and crushing data were good, which boosted the price. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening supply - demand structure [35][37]. - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil & Rapeseed Oil**: During the Spring Festival, US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil continued to be strong. The increase in the price of US RIN has a strong driving effect on US soybean oil. The supply - demand balance sheet for the 26/27 US soybean season shows a tightening structure. The short - term upward movement of palm oil has resistance. The export of Canadian rapeseed has improved, and attention should be paid to the policy orientation [36]. - **Corn**: During the Spring Festival, the US is expected to plant less corn in 2026. The US corn futures price oscillated during the holiday. In China, some enterprises in the Northeast started purchasing after the Spring Festival. The trading volume of Dalian corn futures may increase, and attention should be paid to risks [38]. - **Pigs**: After the Spring Festival, the average price of live pigs decreased compared to before the festival. The supply in the spot market is sufficient, and the futures price is expected to continue to weaken. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the pig production capacity reduction logic in the medium - term [39]. - **Eggs**: After the Spring Festival, the egg price decreased slightly. Considering the expected decline in supply in spring, there is a possibility of the futures price continuing to strengthen. It is recommended to go long on the near - month contract at a low price [40]. - **Cotton**: During the Spring Festival, US cotton was strong. The global supply in the 25/26 season is relatively loose, but there is an expectation of supply contraction in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton market has a good sales situation, and the medium - term Zhengzhou cotton price may be strong [41]. - **Sugar**: During the holiday, US sugar oscillated. In the international market, India's sugar production increased, while Thailand's production was lower than expected. In the domestic market, the market focus is on the expected difference in production. Although the production in Guangxi is currently slow, there is a strong expectation of production increase in the 25/26 season [42]. - **Apples**: The futures price oscillated. The cold - storage trading volume decreased, and the market focus is on the demand side. The high purchase price and the strong reluctance to sell of traders and fruit farmers may affect the inventory reduction speed [43]. - **Wood**: The futures price is at a low level. The supply is expected to decrease in the short - term, and the demand has declined. The low inventory provides certain support, and it is advisable to wait and see for the time being [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: The domestic paper pulp port inventory is still at a high level. The overseas quotation is strong, providing cost support, but the demand is average. The downstream paper mills are cautious about high - price raw material inventory, and attention should be paid to the demand performance after the festival [45]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: Before the long holiday, A - share major indexes fell by more than 1%, and stock index futures were all at a discount. During the Spring Festival, the Hong Kong stock market was strong, while the overseas stock markets fell. There are uncertainties in trade policies and geopolitical situations. After the festival, the market may maintain a strong - biased oscillation, and attention should be paid to the performance of the technology - growth and cyclical sectors [46]. - **Treasury Bonds**: On February 13, 2026, the treasury bond futures showed a differentiated trend. The long - term contracts are over - priced, and the central bank's bond - buying has not ended, with a strong willingness to maintain the capital market. The TL06 contract has a certain safety margin for long - position trading, and it is appropriate to participate in the unilateral trading of TL or flatten the yield curve [47].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The report predicts that Shanghai zinc will undergo wide - range adjustments and face downward pressure. This is due to factors such as the macro - economic situation where US January existing - home sales were lower than expected, the upstream zinc ore situation with high imports but year - end domestic production cuts, refinery profit contractions, and the downstream market turning to the off - season with weakening demand in some sectors and only partial bright spots in others [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: This week, the main Shanghai zinc contract fluctuated and declined, with a weekly change of - 1.04% and an amplitude of 2.41%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 24,195 yuan/ton [4]. - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, US January existing - home sales were 3.91 million, lower than the expected 4.15 million and the previous value of 4.35 million. Fundamentally, upstream zinc ore imports are at a high level, but domestic zinc ore production decreases at the end of the year. Refinery profits are shrinking, and production is expected to be limited. The export window may close again. Demand - side is turning to the off - season, with the real estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home appliance sectors weakening. However, there are some policy - supported bright spots in the automotive field. Downstream procurement is mainly on - demand, and domestic social inventories have slightly increased [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: Open interest is stable while prices are adjusting, and trading between long and short positions has weakened [4]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of February 13, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai zinc was 24,195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 255 yuan/ton or 1.04% from February 6, 2026. As of February 12, 2026, the closing price of LME zinc was 3,381.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 83 US dollars/ton or 2.52% from February 6, 2026 [7]. - **Net Position of Top 20**: As of February 13, 2026, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc was 9,275 lots, an increase of 2,040 lots from February 6, 2026. The open interest of Shanghai zinc was 178,440 lots, a decrease of 12,112 lots or 6.36% from February 6, 2026 [10]. - **Price Spreads**: As of February 13, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan/ton from February 6, 2026. The lead - zinc futures spread was 7,495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 445 yuan/ton from February 6, 2026 [16][17]. - **Spot Premium**: As of February 13, 2026, the spot price of 0 zinc ingot was 24,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 190 yuan/ton or 0.77% from February 6, 2026. The spot discount was 25 yuan/ton, the same as last week. As of February 12, 2026, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was - 28.69 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.94 US dollars/ton from February 5, 2026 [22]. - **Inventory**: As of February 12, 2026, LME refined zinc inventory was 103,500 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons or 3.99% from February 5, 2026. As of February 13, 2026, SHFE refined zinc inventory was 87,025 tons, an increase of 16,336 tons or 23.11% from last week. As of February 12, 2026, domestic refined zinc social inventory was 138,000 tons, an increase of 19,500 tons or 16.46% from February 5, 2026 [25]. 3.3. Industry Situation - **Upstream - Zinc Ore**: In November 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0627 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.11% and a year - on - year increase of 2.39%. In December 2025, the import volume of zinc ore concentrates was 462,599.36 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.44% and a year - on - year increase of 1.15% [31]. - **Supply - Global Refined Zinc**: In November 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1612 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 56,300 tons or 5.1%. Consumption was 1.1689 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5,500 tons or 0.47%. The global refined zinc deficit was 7,700 tons, compared with a deficit of 58,500 tons in the same period last year. The WBMS report showed that the global zinc market supply - demand balance in November 2025 was 29,000 tons [36][37]. - **Supply - Refined Zinc Production**: In December 2025, zinc production was 675,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative zinc output was 7.528 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3% [40]. - **Supply - Refined Zinc Import and Export**: In December 2025, the import volume of refined zinc was 8,760.85 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.4%. The export volume was 27,266.66 tons, a year - on - year increase of 524.21% [43]. - **Downstream - Galvanized Sheet**: From January to December 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 1.0667 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.1%. In December 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 31,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43.22%. The export volume was 404,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 45.95% [46][47]. - **Downstream - Real Estate**: From January to December 2025, the new housing construction area was 587.6996 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.47%. The housing completion area was 603.4813 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 23.9%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 9.311716 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.4%. Personal mortgage loans were 1.285196 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.8% [52][53]. - **Downstream - Infrastructure Investment**: In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 from the previous month and 1.1 from the same period last year. From January to December 2025, infrastructure investment decreased by 1.48% year - on - year [58][59]. - **Downstream - Home Appliances**: In December 2025, refrigerator production was 10.0115 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative refrigerator production was 109.2436 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In December 2025, air - conditioner production was 21.6289 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. From January to December 2025, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 266.9749 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.7% [61]. - **Downstream - Automobile**: In January 2026, China's automobile sales volume was 2.346 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. The automobile production volume was 2.45 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.02% [65].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - The report expects zinc futures in Shanghai to fluctuate and adjust, with the price likely to stay between 24300 - 25000 yuan/ton. The upward momentum is insufficient [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract is 24650 yuan/ton, up 65 from the previous period. The 03 - 04 contract spread is -20 yuan/ton, up 35 [3] - The LME three - month zinc quote is 3418 dollars/ton, up 20. The total Shanghai zinc open interest is 193888 lots, up 649 [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai zinc is 4214 lots, up 2555. The Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts are 0 tons, unchanged [3] - The SHFE inventory is 70689 tons (weekly), up 5535. The LME inventory is 105250 tons (daily), down 1500 [3] Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on SMM is 24480 yuan/ton, up 20. The spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market is 24400 yuan/ton, up 240 [3] - The basis of the main zinc contract is -170 yuan/ton, down 45. The LME zinc cash - 3 months spread is -17.8 dollars/ton, up 1.75 [3] - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 21340 yuan/ton, up 10. The price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 16700 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is -35700 tons (monthly), down 14700. The ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is -7700 tons (monthly), down 4900 [3] - The global zinc mine production (monthly) is 1.0627 million tons, down 11900. The domestic refined zinc production (monthly) is 675000 tons, up 21000 [3] - The zinc ore import volume (monthly) is 462600 tons, down 53900 [3] Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume (monthly) is 8760.85 tons, down 9469.07. The refined zinc export volume (monthly) is 27266.66 tons, down 15548.89 [3] - The zinc social inventory is 128000 tons (weekly), up 9500 [3] Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets (monthly) is 2.36 million tons, up 20000. The sales volume of galvanized sheets (monthly) is 2.36 million tons, down 60000 [3] - The new housing construction area (monthly) is 587.6996 million square meters, up 53.1326 million. The housing completion area (monthly) is 603.4813 million square meters, up 208.942 million [3] - The automobile production (monthly) is 3.4115 million vehicles, down 107500. The air - conditioner production (monthly) is 21.6289 million units, up 6.6029 million [3] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 22.92% (daily), down 0.45. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 22.92% (daily), down 0.45 [3] - The 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 38.46% (daily), down 0.09. The 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money zinc options is 19.2% (daily), up 0.02 [3] Industry News - In the macro - aspect, the US January non - farm payrolls report was strong, pushing back the market's expectation of the first interest - rate cut from June to July. China's January CPI year - on - year increase fell to 0.2%, and the PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 1.4% [3] - In the fundamental aspect, the zinc ore imports in China are at a high level, but domestic zinc mines cut production at the end of the year. The competition among domestic smelters for domestic ore purchases has increased, processing fees at home and abroad have dropped significantly, and the profits of domestic smelters have shrunk, with production expected to be restricted [3] - The LME zinc price has corrected recently, the SHFE - LME ratio has rebounded, and the export window may close again. On the demand side, the downstream market is gradually turning into the off - season, with the real - estate sector dragging down, and the infrastructure and home - appliance sectors also weakening, while policies in the automobile and other fields bring some bright spots [3]

Group 1 - International copper futures rose by 0.33% in the night session, while Shanghai copper increased by 0.26% [1] - Shanghai aluminum decreased by 0.08%, and Shanghai zinc fell by 0.04% [1] - Shanghai lead saw a slight increase of 0.06%, and Shanghai nickel surged by 2.30% [1] Group 2 - Shanghai tin experienced a rise of 0.89%, while alumina remained flat in the night session [1] - Aluminum alloy saw a minor decline of 0.02%, and stainless steel increased by 0.50% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products, under the influence of geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors [2][4][5] - It also provides insights into the stock market (A - shares, H - shares) and the bond market, suggesting potential trends and investment opportunities [47][48] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Tensions between the US and Iran keep the Brent crude price volatile in the range of $68 - 70, with high geopolitical risk premiums expected [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical situations drive the market. High - sulfur fuel oil may face pressure if geopolitical risks ease, while low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by overseas refinery supply and European heating demand [22] - **Asphalt**: The market shows a supply - demand dual - weak pattern, and its price is mainly influenced by crude oil trends, with potential support for the cracking spread [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated. With the US retail sales data and focus on non - farm payrolls, short - term volatility is decreasing, and a wait - and - see approach before the festival is recommended [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices oscillated narrowly. Before the festival, the position and trading volume are expected to shrink, and post - festival prices may first be pressured by inventory accumulation and then rebound based on demand expectations [4] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum and its related products like casting aluminum alloy, alumina, etc., face different situations. For example, aluminum has inventory increase and adjustment pressure, while alumina has a supply - surplus outlook [5][6][7] - **Zinc**: In a downward - volatility adjustment, with weakening consumption and supply - demand imbalance, the overall rebound is under pressure, but short - term high - level oscillation is expected [8] - **Lead**: With mixed signals of supply and demand, it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost line [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel rebounds with dull trading, and stainless steel has increasing inventory and weak market confidence [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices showed a positive - line oscillation. Attention is on the post - festival supply - demand changes during the peak season [11] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It has a weak rebound with dull trading. The inventory structure is complex, and short - term uncertainty is high [12] - **Polysilicon**: Futures oscillate downward with light trading. The market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend due to factors such as supply - demand and the approaching festival [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices fall below 8400 yuan/ton. Supply may increase after the holiday, and demand is expected to be weak, so short - term prices may remain weak [14] - **Other Chemicals**: Various chemicals like polypropylene, plastic, PVC, etc., have different market trends based on supply - demand relationships, production capacity, and seasonal factors [27][28][29] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybean & Related Products**: The USDA report is neutral - slightly bearish, but with export expectations, the US soybean may maintain a relatively high - level oscillation [36] - **Corn**: The national sales progress is 61%. Before the festival, the market is quiet, and after the festival, prices may oscillate weakly [39] - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pig**: Spot prices continue to decline. There is a risk of post - festival supply pressure, and long - term prices may have a low point next year [40] - **Egg**: Some futures contracts hit new lows. There is upward repair power in the first half of 2026, and a long - position strategy can be considered after the holiday [41] - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: The US cotton report is slightly bearish, and the pre - festival Zheng cotton is expected to oscillate. Attention is on post - festival inventory changes [42] - **Sugar**: International and domestic production situations vary, and short - term sugar prices face pressure [43] - **Apple**: Futures prices oscillate. The market focus is on demand, and attention is on the de - stocking speed [44] Financial Markets - **Stock Index**: A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation. The market may continue to repair this week, with potential structural rotation [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures oscillated narrowly, with limited upward and downward space. A short - term strong trend may continue until the festival, and curve - related trading opportunities are recommended [48]

Group 1 - International copper futures fell by 0.07% in the night session, while Shanghai copper dropped by 0.13% [1] - Shanghai aluminum remained flat, and Shanghai zinc increased by 0.12% [1] - Shanghai lead rose by 0.18%, and Shanghai nickel saw a significant increase of 1.88% [1] - Shanghai tin also experienced a rise of 1.06% [1] Group 2 - Alumina futures declined by 1.54%, and aluminum alloy prices decreased by 0.18% [1] - Stainless steel futures increased by 0.40% in the night session [1]

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are under pressure due to rising inventories and weak demand ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday, despite a weakening US dollar making commodities more attractive to foreign holders [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - On February 10, the main copper futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 101,560 yuan per ton, up 0.05%, with an intraday increase of 0.98% [1]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper price fell by 0.65% to $13,091 per ton, maintaining above the $13,000 mark [1]. Group 2: Inventory Trends - Major exchange registered warehouse inventories have increased, with LME copper stocks rising to 184,300 tons from 137,225 tons on January 10, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's copper inventory reaching 248,911 tons, marking a nine-week consecutive increase [4]. - COMEX copper inventories have surged to a record 590,211 tons, indicating a significant rise in supply [5]. Group 3: Demand Dynamics - Analysts noted that demand from downstream buyers in China has cooled after pre-holiday restocking, contributing to the pressure on copper prices [4]. - The Yangshan copper premium, a barometer for China's import demand, has widened to $38 per ton from a previous $20, but remains low compared to over $50 at the end of December, reflecting weak demand [5].