Core Viewpoint - Recent nickel price declines are influenced by various factors, including supply pressures and changes in mining policies in Indonesia and the Philippines [2][3][4]. Supply Factors - Nickel prices are under pressure due to significant oversupply, with Indonesian and Philippine mining policies contributing to this situation. The removal of export bans in the Philippines and high supply growth from Chinese nickel companies have exacerbated the oversupply [3][4]. - Nickel inventory levels have increased significantly, with nickel pig iron inventory rising to 31,500 tons and refined nickel inventory increasing nearly eightfold to 39,000 tons [3]. Demand Factors - Domestic demand for refined nickel is expected to grow faster than supply in the first half of the year, with a 60.82% year-on-year increase in apparent consumption [6]. - However, demand from stainless steel and ternary precursor sectors remains weak, limiting the growth potential for refined nickel consumption [6][7]. Global Inventory Trends - Global refined nickel inventory accumulation is slowing down due to supply-side disruptions and the impact of low nickel prices on high-cost producers, leading to production cuts [5][6]. - The LME inventory has shown a decline since April, particularly in Russian-origin stocks, indicating a potential tightening in supply [5]. Price Outlook - Short-term nickel price declines may be limited due to high nickel ore prices and ongoing inventory depletion [7]. - However, there remains potential for further price declines as raw material prices may still adjust downward, and demand from stainless steel production is not expected to improve significantly [7]. Market Focus - Future market attention should be directed towards changes in Indonesian mining policies, the impact of price declines on high-cost supply, and the ability of pure nickel inventories to deplete effectively [7].