研究所 吴金恒（期货从业资格号F03100418 期货投资咨询号Z0021125）,联系电话:010-82293229 镍与不锈钢日评20251010:反弹高度有限 数据米源:SMM W | 2025-09-30 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-10-09 | 2025-09-24 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 124260.00 | 120310.00 | 121250.00 | 3,950.00 | -1 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 124480.00 | 120900.00 | 3,580.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 121450.00 | ~ | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 124660.00 | 121060.00 | 121630.00 | 3,600.00 | ~~ | | | | | 121270.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 12 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the strong performance of ferronickel prices and significant inventory pressure of refined nickel lead to a divergence in the trends of nickel and ferronickel prices. If the refined nickel inventory continues to grow, nickel prices may further decline to find the valuation bottom. But in the long - run, nickel prices do not have a basis for a sharp decline. Considering the global macro - easing expectations and news disturbances in Indonesia, long - position allocation has a higher cost - performance [1][14][18] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Ore - The overall supply and demand of nickel ore in Indonesia remain loose, with only a slight decline in the price of hydrometallurgical ore and firm prices of pyrometallurgical ore. Due to concerns about RKAB approval quotas, smelters have accelerated stockpiling, limiting the downside of ore prices. In the Philippines, improved weather and rising downstream ferronickel prices may lead to higher mine quotes [4] Ferronickel - Recently, ferronickel prices have been running steadily and strongly, with the bargaining range moving up to 955 - 960 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch). Supply growth is limited as iron - plant profits are still low. On the demand side, the expected increase in stainless - steel production in September supports ferronickel demand, but the volatility of the stainless - steel market makes steel mills cautious in raw - material procurement. In the short - term, ferronickel prices are expected to continue to run steadily and strongly [6] Refined Nickel - In the short - term, there is an obvious oversupply of refined nickel. In September, the global visible inventory of refined nickel has returned to the accumulation trend, increasing by 17,000 tons to 263,000 tons since the beginning of the month, dragging down nickel prices. In the long - run, nickel prices do not have a basis for a sharp decline because of Indonesia's RKAB approval system and the rising costs of smelting processes [14]

Group 1 - Nickel prices are experiencing a weak fluctuation, with SMM1 nickel quoted at 123,000 CNY/ton, down 600 CNY/ton, and Jinchuan nickel also at 123,000 CNY/ton, down 600 CNY/ton [1] - The futures market shows the main contract for nickel closing at 120,850 CNY/ton on September 10, with a slight decline of 0.07% [2] - Indonesia's nickel pig iron (NPI) exports increased significantly, with a total of 6.701 million tons exported from January to July 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 1.384 million tons, or 26.0% [3] Group 2 - The analysis from Jianxin Futures indicates that the approval cycle adjustment for RKAB in Indonesia may disrupt supply in the second half of the year, but the decline in nickel ore prices is expected to be limited [4] - The report suggests that while the supply of refined nickel is under pressure, the current market is supported by nickel ore and cost factors, making a significant drop in prices unlikely [4] - The demand for nickel sulfate is expected to remain stable due to low inventory levels and ongoing raw material procurement needs from downstream enterprises [4]

Group 1 - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) shares rose over 8%, currently trading at HKD 1.48 with a transaction volume of HKD 18.66 million [1] - The company will hold a board meeting on August 29 to approve its interim results, expecting a consolidated revenue of approximately RMB 1.118 billion for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of about 4.9% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be around RMB 71.8 million, showing a significant year-on-year decline of approximately 50.8%, primarily due to a drop in average selling prices of electrolytic nickel and increased production costs [1] Group 2 - According to Galaxy Futures, the nickel market is experiencing oversupply, with hidden inventories absorbing excess supply; July's significant imports did not disrupt domestic supply, and refined nickel spot prices remain stable [1] - In August, production of stainless steel and ternary materials is expected to increase month-on-month, providing support for primary nickel demand, while refined nickel may see improved transactions due to seasonal stocking [1] - Expectations for interest rate cuts in September may strengthen commodity indices, potentially allowing nickel prices to rebound on inflation expectations, although the upward space is limited, maintaining a wide fluctuation pattern [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) experienced a pre-earnings surge of over 8%, attributed to the upcoming board meeting to approve mid-term results, despite a significant decline in net profit due to falling nickel prices and rising production costs [1]. Company Summary - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining's expected consolidated revenue for the first half of the year is approximately 1.118 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of about 4.9% [1]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be around 71.8 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year decrease of approximately 50.8% [1]. Industry Summary - According to Galaxy Futures, the nickel market is currently experiencing an oversupply, which is being absorbed by hidden inventories [1]. - In July, significant imports did not disrupt domestic supply, and refined nickel spot prices remained stable [1]. - In August, there is an increase in stainless steel and ternary production, providing support for primary nickel demand, while refined nickel may see improved transactions due to seasonal stocking [1]. - Expectations for interest rate cuts in September could strengthen commodity indices, potentially allowing nickel prices to rebound due to inflation expectations, although the upward potential remains limited, maintaining a wide fluctuation pattern [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market is expected to oscillate. Recently, nickel supply has remained largely unchanged, but the 3.25% increase in domestic refined nickel inventory last week poses a significant negative impact on the fundamentals. Nickel prices are under pressure to decline but are also constrained by cost considerations and are unlikely to drop significantly. Attention should be paid to news disturbances from major producing countries and changes in macro - expectations, especially Indonesia's claim to crack down on illegal mining [3][4]. - The stainless - steel market is facing a situation where the upward momentum of the futures market is weak, and the market may fall into a stalemate again. Downstream enterprises are not very enthusiastic about purchasing and are mostly adopting a wait - and - see attitude. The recent market recovery is mainly supported by strong macro news, but the spot fundamentals have recovered poorly, and demand needs further release [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - **Prices**: As of August 18, the CIF prices of Philippine laterite nickel ore at 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% remained unchanged from last week at $29, $57, and $78.5 per wet ton respectively. As of August 15, the ex - factory prices of Indonesian domestic trade nickel ore at Ni1.2% and Ni1.6% decreased by $0.3 and $0 respectively from last week to $24.5 and $52.3 per wet ton. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron as of August 18 increased by $7 per nickel point from last week to $926 per nickel point, a 0.76% increase [3][25]. - **Output**: As of July 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output increased by 0.1 million tons to 3.28 million tons, a 3.14% increase. The national nickel pig iron output (metal content) decreased by 0.11 million tons to 2.45 million tons, a 0.59% decrease. In July 2025, Indonesia's nickel pig iron output decreased by 0.24 million tons to 13.44 million nickel tons, a 1.73% decrease [3][37][60]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the nickel ore port inventory increased by 6 million tons to 776 million wet tons, a 0.78% increase. Last week, the pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) increased by 1319 tons to 4.19 million tons, a 3.25% increase [27][39]. - **Profit**: As of August 12, the cash cost production profit margin of Fujian RKEF increased by 0.92 percentage points to - 9.36% [3]. Stainless - steel Market - **Output**: As of August 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel output increased by 0.59% to 322.98 million tons, with the 300 - series output increasing by 0.01% to 169.83 million tons, the 200 - series output increasing by 2.76% to 96.7 million tons, and the 400 - series output decreasing by 1.26% to 56.45 million tons [70]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 2.74 million tons to 107.89 million tons, a 2.48% decrease. As of August 18, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt quantity increased by 57 tons to 10.31 million tons, a 0.06% increase [74]. - **Cost and Profit**: As of August 18, the cash cost of Chinese 304 cold - rolled stainless - steel coils decreased by $30 per ton to $12995 per ton, a 0.23% decrease. The production profit margin of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils decreased by 0.34 percentage points to - 2.16% [78]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel Market - **Output**: As of July 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly output increased by 0.43 million tons to 2.91 million nickel tons, a 17.3% increase. Affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the supply of sulfuric acid nickel in the market is generally in a stable and weak state [49]. - **Profit**: As of August 18, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag decreased by 0.2, increased by 1.3, increased by 0.3, and increased by 0.3 percentage points respectively from last week to - 1.6%, - 3.6%, 4.4%, and - 2.5% [55][56].

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry The provided content does not mention the report's investment rating for the industry. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the improvement in downstream stainless - steel demand is limited, and nickel prices still face correction pressure. However, in the medium to long term, the US easing expectations and China's anti - involution policies will provide strong support for nickel prices, and the new - year RKAB approval also poses potential positive factors. The downside space for nickel prices is limited. It is recommended to build long positions on dips. The short - term price range for the SHFE nickel main contract is expected to be between 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M nickel contract, it is between 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [12]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: The rainy season in Sulawesi ended this week, leading to a short - term increase in nickel ore supply. Most RKAB approvals in Indonesia are nearly completed, with approved quotas of about 3.1 - 3.3 billion wet tons. The tight supply of nickel ore has eased, and short - term ore prices may decline slightly. On August 15, the arrival price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 52.3 US dollars/wet ton (unchanged from last week), and that of 1.2% grade was 24.5 US dollars/wet ton (down 0.3 US dollars/ton from last week) [12]. - **Ferronickel**: Supply decreased slightly due to low profit levels at iron plants. Stainless - steel supply remains low, with August production expected to be flat month - on - month. Downstream speculative restocking in the demand side provides some support for stainless - steel demand, and social inventories have declined for five consecutive weeks. It is expected that stainless - steel supply will increase slightly, driving up ferronickel demand. Overall, the surplus pressure of ferronickel has eased slightly, and prices are stable with an upward trend. A domestic iron plant's high - nickel ferronickel was traded at 950 yuan/nickel (ex - works tax - included) this week, and mainstream quotes rose to 940 - 950 yuan/nickel (cargo - in - hold tax - included) [12]. - **Intermediate products**: For MHP, the external procurement demand from downstream nickel sulfate has been released, while the trading volume from traders is limited, resulting in a shortage of supply and a significant increase in coefficient prices. For high - grade nickel matte, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises is relatively weak, market transactions are sluggish, and coefficient prices remain stable [12]. - **Refined nickel**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly this week and then declined, closing at 120,600 yuan/ton on Friday, down 1.2% from last week. The release of US July CPI data strengthened market expectations of monetary easing, but the subsequent PPI data showed resilience, slightly cooling market expectations of interest - rate cuts. In the spot market, downstream orders in the alloy and electroplating industries are scarce, market transactions are dull, and spot prices mainly fluctuate with the futures market, with stable premiums and discounts [12]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Refined nickel prices**: The spot price of Jinchuan nickel was 122,550 yuan/ton (down 410 yuan/ton, - 0.33% from last week), and that of Russian nickel was 120,750 yuan/ton (down 370 yuan/ton, - 0.31% from last week). The LME closing price was 15,195 US dollars (up 80 US dollars, + 0.53% from last week), and the SHFE closing price was 120,600 yuan (down 580 yuan, - 0.48% from last week) [16]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 211,700 tons (down 600 tons, - 0.27% from last week), SHFE inventory was 27,000 tons (up 800 tons, + 2.93% from last week), bonded - area inventory was 5,400 tons (unchanged from last week), nickel plate spot inventory was 37,500 tons (up 2,000 tons, + 5.53% from last week), and nickel bean spot inventory was 2,900 tons (unchanged from last week) [16]. - **Premium and discount**: As of August 15, the average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 400 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton from last week), and the average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 2,100 - 2,300 yuan/ton (down 50 yuan/ton from last week). The LME Cash/3M nickel discount was 207.88 US dollars/ton, slightly lower than the same period last week [22]. - **Secondary nickel prices**: The ex - works price of domestic high - nickel pig iron on Friday was 916 - 935 yuan/nickel point (average up 7 yuan/nickel point from last week), and the domestic spot price of nickel sulfate was 27,300 - 27,790 yuan/ton (average up 105 yuan/ton from last week) [26]. 3. Cost Side - **Nickel ore**: Domestic port inventories continued to accumulate. As of August 15, nickel ore port inventories reached 1,095.16 million tons, up 6.0% from the same period last week. Nickel ore prices remained stable. On August 15, the arrival price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic laterite nickel ore was 52.3 US dollars/wet ton (unchanged from last week), that of 1.2% grade was 24.5 US dollars/wet ton (down 0.3 US dollars/ton from last week), and the CIF price of 1.5% grade Philippine nickel ore was 57 US dollars/ton (unchanged from last week) [34][37]. - **Intermediate products**: In June, Indonesia's MHP production was 39,000 nickel tons (basically flat month - on - month), and high - grade nickel matte production was 25,000 nickel tons (significantly up month - on - month). As of August 15, the FOB price of Indonesian MHP was 12,684 US dollars/metal ton, with an MHP coefficient to LME nickel of 0.86 (unchanged from last week); the price of high - grade nickel matte was 13,054 US dollars/metal ton, with a coefficient to LME nickel of 0.88 (unchanged from last week) [44][49]. 4. Refined Nickel - **Supply**: In July 2025, China's refined nickel production reached 36,200 tons, maintaining a historically high level [54]. - **Demand**: The report analyzes stainless - steel production, inventory, and terminal demand in the manufacturing and real - estate sectors, but specific demand trends are not clearly summarized [56][58]. - **Inventory**: Global refined nickel inventories increased slightly this week. According to Mysteel data, on August 15, the combined visible inventory in China and LME reached 252,000 tons, up 1,027 tons from the same period last month [63]. 5. Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: The report shows production and net import volume data of nickel sulfate in China, but specific supply trends are not clearly summarized [69]. - **Demand**: The report analyzes the loading volume of ternary power batteries and the production of ternary precursors in China, but specific demand trends are not clearly summarized [72]. - **Cost and price**: The report presents the production cost, price, and profit - margin data of battery - grade nickel sulfate, but specific trends are not clearly summarized [74]. 6. Supply - Demand Balance The report provides quarterly supply - demand balance data from 2023 to 2025, showing that the overall supply of nickel exceeds demand, but the surplus is gradually narrowing. In 2025, the total supply is expected to be 3.7688 million nickel tons, and the total demand is 3.6024 million nickel tons, with a surplus of 166,400 nickel tons [79].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report suggests temporarily observing or conducting range - bound operations with a reference range of 12.0 - 12.5. It anticipates that nickel prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the future. The macro - situation shows that China's July CPI was flat year - on - year and PPI's month - on - month decline narrowed. The Indonesia government's PNBP policy restricts supply and raises costs, while the Philippines' nickel ore supply rebounds. On the supply side, overall refined nickel production increased slightly, and on the demand side, stainless - steel mills increased production, and new - energy vehicle production and sales climbed, but ternary battery demand was limited. Recently, nickel price increases led to reduced procurement demand, with domestic inventory rising and overseas LME inventory also growing. Technically, there are differences between bulls and bears, and attention should be paid to the battle around M60 [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai nickel futures contract was 122,130 yuan/ton, a 950 - yuan increase. The 09 - 10 contract spread was - 150 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan increase. The LME 3 - month nickel price was 15,115 dollars/ton, unchanged. The main contract's open interest was 77,193 lots, a decrease of 1,762 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 25,349 lots, a decrease of 2,345 lots. LME nickel inventory was 211,296 tons, a decrease of 936 tons. Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 26,194 tons (weekly), an increase of 444 tons. The LME nickel canceled warrants totaled 14,832 tons, a decrease of 936 tons. The Shanghai nickel warrant quantity was 20,723 tons, an increase of 102 tons [3]. 2.现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price was 122,850 yuan/ton, a 900 - yuan increase. The spot average price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River was 122,750 yuan/ton, a 700 - yuan increase. The Shanghai electrolytic nickel CIF (bill of lading) price was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The Shanghai electrolytic nickel bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price was 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate was 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The NI main contract basis was 720 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium was - 199.29 dollars/ton, an increase of 4.56 dollars [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore was 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore was 1,033.34 million tons (weekly), an increase of 38.98 million tons. The average monthly import price of nickel ore was 65.84 dollars/ton, a decrease of 7.57 dollars. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni was 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production was 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly nickel - iron production was 2.26 million metal tons, a decrease of 0.13 million metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys was 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of nickel - iron was 104.14 million tons, an increase of 19.32 million tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel was 174.4 million tons, a decrease of 4.07 million tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 59.29 million tons, a decrease of 1.51 million tons [3]. 6. Industry News - In July, China's CPI increased 0.4% month - on - month from a 0.1% decrease in June, and the core CPI increased 0.8% year - on - year with the growth rate expanding for three consecutive months. PPI decreased 0.2% month - on - month, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to June, and decreased 3.6% year - on - year, the same as in June. The US and Russia are seeking a cease - fire agreement on the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which has caused a "flash crash" in crude oil prices. Trump said he would meet Putin in Alaska on the 15th. Zelensky firmly rejected territorial concessions [3]. 7. Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [3]

报告行业投资评级 - No investment rating provided in the report 报告的核心观点 - Philippine nickel ore supply has rebounded, but domestic nickel ore port inventories have declined, leading to a tight raw material situation [2] - High raw material prices and a downward trend in nickel prices have caused profit losses for some non - integrated smelters, leading to production cuts [2] - Stainless steel mills' profit margins have been compressed, resulting in production cuts for the 300 - series; new energy vehicle production and sales continue to rise, but ternary battery demand has declined [2] - Recently, nickel prices have fallen, leading to increased spot premiums and decreased domestic social inventories, while overseas LME inventories have increased [2] - Technically, with declining positions and rising prices, there is a divergence between bulls and bears. Attention should be paid to the MA60 pressure level, and short - term fluctuations and adjustments are expected. It is recommended to wait and see [2] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 期货市场 - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai nickel is 120,910 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the price difference between the 08 - 09 contracts is - 110 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] - The LME 3 - month nickel price is 1,5105 dollars/ton, up 85 dollars; the position volume of the main contract for Shanghai nickel is 90,543 lots, down 4,924 lots [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for Shanghai nickel is - 21,786 lots, up 1,182 lots; LME nickel inventories are 211,254 tons, up 2,172 tons [2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventories are 25,750 tons, up 299 tons; LME nickel cancelled warrants total 15,870 tons, up 3,558 tons [2] - The warehouse receipt quantity for Shanghai nickel is 20,923 tons, down 247 tons [2] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 121,900 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plates from Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals is 122,000 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan [2] - The CIF (bill of lading) price for Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price for Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 990 yuan/ton, up 370 yuan [2] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 200.74 dollars/ton, down 7.95 dollars [2] 上游情况 - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, up 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 994.36 million tons, up 6.49 million tons [2] - The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 65.84 dollars/ton, down 7.57 dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 产业情况 - The monthly production of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly production of ferronickel is 2.26 million metal tons, down 0.13 million metal tons [2] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, down 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 billion tons, up 193.2 million tons [2] 下游情况 - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 174.4 million tons, down 4.07 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 60.8 million tons, up 0.23 million tons [2] 行业消息 - Former New York Fed President Dudley wrote that Fed Chair Powell plans to serve until May 2026 and may continue as a governor after that [2] - The EU Commission spokesperson said that the EU will suspend two counter - measures against US tariffs for six months, and the extension will take effect this week [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report Short - term nickel and stainless - steel prices are weakened by market sentiment. The overall fundamentals change little. There is support from nickel - iron and intermediate product prices at the lower end and demand suppression at the upper end, so they still show a volatile trend [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - Monthly changes:沪镍 fell 1.2%, LME nickel fell 2.1%, nickel - iron prices rose, and nickel sulfate prices fell slightly. Stainless - steel spot prices generally increased, and the spot premium rose 220 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton [5][57] - Specific price data: For example,沪镍 dropped from 121,220 yuan/ton to 119,770 yuan/ton; LME nickel decreased from 15,340 dollars/ton to 15,020 dollars/ton [6] 3.2 Supply - **Nickel - related supply** - Nickel ore: The price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore 1.2% decreased by 0.2 dollars/wet ton to 24.8 dollars/wet ton, 1.6% remained at 52.1 dollars/wet ton. Indonesian nickel ore premium dropped 1 dollar/wet ton to 24 dollars/wet ton, and Philippine nickel ore 1.5% stayed at 7 dollars/wet ton [4][5][18] - Refined nickel: In August, the production is expected to increase 2% month - on - month to 33,000 tons [4][5] - Nickel - iron: The market was inactive, and the transaction price center shifted slightly upward [4][5][21] - Intermediate products: Spot prices declined slightly, and market activity remained stable [4][5][24] - Nickel sulfate: In August, the production is expected to drop 3% month - on - month to 28,349 nickel tons [4][5][29] - **Stainless - steel supply** - In July 2025, the estimated crude - steel output of 43 domestic stainless - steel plants was 3.2302 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 61,400 tons (1.87%) and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. In August, the planned output is 3.3041 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.29% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.64% [4][57][71] 3.3 Demand - **Stainless - steel demand** - Inventory: The warehouse - receipt inventory decreased 429 tons to 103,000 tons month - on - month. The total social inventory of 89 warehouses in the national mainstream stainless - steel market decreased 7,000 tons to 1.111 million tons week - on - week, with the 300 - series increasing 7,000 tons to 677,000 tons [4][57][64] - Consumption: According to the production schedule report of three major white goods released by Industrial Online, the total planned production of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in August 2025 is 26.97 million units, a 4.9% decrease compared to the actual production in the same period last year [4][57][82] - **New - energy demand** - Ternary precursor: In August, the production is expected to increase 5% month - on - month to 76,160 tons [4][5][41] - Ternary material: In August, the production is expected to increase 3% month - on - month to 70,750 tons, and the weekly inventory decreased 53 tons to 16,499 tons [4][5][43] - Power cells: The weekly cell production decreased 0.5% to 22.57 Wh, with lithium - iron increasing 0.5% to 15.66 GWh and ternary decreasing 2.7% to 6.91 GWh [4][5][46] - New - energy vehicles: From July 1st to 20th, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 514,000 units, a 25% year - on - year increase and a 12% decrease compared to the previous month; the retail volume was 537,000 units, a 23% year - on - year increase and a 12% decrease compared to the previous month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market was 54.9%, and the wholesale penetration rate of new - energy manufacturers was 53.6% [4][5][51] 3.4 Inventory - Nickel inventory: During the week, LME inventory increased 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons;沪镍 inventory decreased 331 tons to 21,374 tons, social inventory decreased 795 tons to 39,486 tons, and bonded - area inventory increased 500 tons to 5,200 tons [5][12][16] - Stainless - steel inventory: As mentioned above, the warehouse - receipt and social inventory of stainless - steel changed as described in the demand section [4][57][64] 3.5 Cost - profit - Stainless - steel: Raw material prices were stable, while finished - product prices fluctuated greatly. The profit margins of stainless - steel smelting, cold - rolling 304, and hot - rolling 304 were also presented in relevant charts [57][80] 3.6 Supply - demand Balance - Nickel: There are charts showing the supply - demand balance of primary nickel and nickel sulfate [53][54][56] - Stainless - steel: There is a chart presenting the supply - demand balance of Chinese stainless - steel [91][92]