Report Overview - Report Title: Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Nickel and Stainless Steel [1] - Date: November 18, 2025 [3] - Analyst: Wu Jinheng [4] Investment Ratings - Nickel: Hold a wait - and - see stance, with an expected price range of 110,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Hold short positions, with an expected price range of 11,800 - 12,800 yuan/ton [6][125] Core Views - Nickel: Under macro - level pressure, the supply - demand fundamentals are loose and inventory is rising, so nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [5][99] - Stainless Steel: Weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs will keep stainless steel prices running weakly [6][125] Summary by Directory 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel declined by 2.16% weekly, with trading volume dropping to 450,600 lots (- 95,900) and open interest falling to 112,200 lots (- 9,700). LME nickel fell 1.20% weekly, with trading volume rising to 41,100 lots (+ 3,600) [11] - The basis premium was 1,950 yuan/ton [13] 1.2 Supply Side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores remained flat, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China was unchanged [21] - In September, the Philippines' nickel ore exports decreased. China's nickel ore imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 33.9% year - on - year increase [26] - Last week, the nickel ore arrival volume decreased by 90,200 tons week - on - week, and port inventory decreased by 50,000 wet tons [28] Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron dropped by 12 yuan/nickel point, while the price of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron remained flat. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel narrowed, and the premium to scrap stainless steel widened [34] - In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% month - on - month increase and a 47.2% year - on - year increase. Imports are expected to decline in October [39] - In November, domestic nickel pig iron production and capacity utilization declined, while those in Indonesia increased. Nickel pig iron inventory accumulated [47][49] Electrolytic Nickel - In November, the production and capacity utilization of refined nickel declined, and the import loss of electrolytic nickel widened [53][57] - In September, electrolytic nickel imports increased and exports decreased [61] 1.3 Demand Side Stainless Steel - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [66][114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month and 8.7% year - on - year, while imports increased by 2.7% month - on - month and 0.4% year - on - year. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [70][117] New Energy - The premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate to pure nickel widened, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was extremely low [75] - In November, the production of ternary precursors decreased by 0.1% month - on - month but increased by 20.4% year - on - year, while the production of ternary materials increased by 1.4% month - on - month and 39.8% year - on - year [79] - In November, the production of nickel sulfate increased by 4.8% month - on - month and 23.4% year - on - year [81] - In October, the production of new energy vehicles was 1.772 million units, a 9.6% month - on - month increase and a 21.1% year - on - year increase; sales were 1.715 million units, a 6.9% month - on - month increase and a 19.9% year - on - year increase [87] 1.4 Inventory Side - Last week, SHFE nickel inventory and LME nickel inventory both increased. Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory remained flat, and the six - region social inventory increased by 3,981 tons [88][93] 1.5 Cost and Outlook - The cost of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate, nickel matte, and MHP decreased. MHP - integrated production of electrowon nickel has a significant cost advantage over nickel matte - integrated production [98] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to macro - level pressure, loose fundamentals, and rising inventory [99] 2.1 Stainless Steel Market Review - Last week, stainless steel futures declined by 1.51% weekly, with the basis widening to 1,080 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 490,300 lots (unchanged), and open interest increased to 167,700 lots (+ 110,600) [102] 2.2 Cost and Profit - The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased, weakening cost support [105] - The profitability of 200 - series stainless steel improved, the losses of 300 - series widened, and 400 - series turned from loss to profit [110] 2.3 Fundamental Analysis - In November, stainless steel production decreased, mainly due to the reduction of 200 - series production, while 300 - series production remained basically flat [114] - In September, stainless steel exports decreased, and imports increased. Exports and imports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [117] 2.4 Inventory Side - Domestic stainless steel social inventory increased, with inventory of all series (200, 300, and 400) rising [123] 2.5 Outlook - Due to weak demand, loose fundamentals, and weakening costs, stainless steel prices are expected to continue to run weakly [125]

镍矿供应相对充足 根据印尼镍矿协会的最新数据，2025年RKAB（采矿工作计划与预算报告）已经批准3.64亿湿吨配额， 相比年初（2.98亿湿吨）增加超22%。若按照85%开采效率测算，2025年印尼实际镍矿供应会在3亿湿吨 左右，而镍矿需求在2.6亿湿吨左右，镍矿供需整体由年初的偏紧转向宽松格局。受此影响，镍矿价格 有所回落。印尼内贸红土镍矿最新到厂价为52.2美元／湿吨，相比年内的高点下跌7%左右。海关总署 的数据，9月国内进口镍矿611万吨，环比小幅下降3.6%，同比增加33%；1—9月国内累计进口3224万 吨，同比增加11.6%。其中，从菲律宾进口2918万吨，同比增加10.87%，占比超90%。 综上所述，供需宽松格局驱动镍价走弱，但是考虑到镍矿端的支撑，预计继续向下的空间有限。首先， 菲律宾苏高里地区将进入雨季，镍矿的开采能力将受限，镍矿的发运量将季节性回落。其次，目前印尼 镍矿内贸价格坚挺，镍价越向下成本支撑越强。截至11月7日，印尼内贸红土镍矿到厂价为52.7美元／ 湿吨，与7月初基本持平。最后，印尼政府于2025年10月3日发布《关于2026年矿产与煤炭采矿活动的工 作计划与预算编制提交批 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the nickel price will fluctuate weakly. Technically, the increase in positions and the decline in price have led to a rise in the short - selling atmosphere, testing the lower edge of the range. It is recommended to wait and see for now or take short - term and light - position short - selling, and pay attention to the MA5 pressure [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai Nickel is 118,710 yuan/ton, down 670 yuan; the spread between the December - January contracts of Shanghai Nickel is - 180 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,025 dollars/ton, down 75 dollars. The main contract holding volume of Shanghai Nickel is 116,829 lots, an increase of 1,929 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai Nickel is - 34,023 lots, an increase of 1,175 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 253,308 tons, down 96 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 37,187 tons, an increase of 436 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 14,970 tons, an increase of 24 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai Nickel is 31,824 tons, down 468 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 120,450 yuan/ton, down 850 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 120,350 yuan/ton, down 1,050 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,740 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 200.63 dollars/ton, down 4.13 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 million tons, down 23.22 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,481.66 million tons, an increase of 2.56 million tons. The average monthly import price of nickel ore is 56.72 dollars/ton, down 4.61 dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel output is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly nickel - iron output is 217,000 metal tons, down 3,000 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, an increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of nickel - iron is 1.0853 billion tons, an increase of 0.2112 billion tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 billion tons, an increase of 0.0248 billion tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 570,800 tons, down 10,000 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Q3 monetary policy report of the People's Bank of China states that it is natural for the growth rate of financial aggregates to decline in the future, and a reasonable interest - rate ratio relationship should be maintained. ADP data shows that in the four weeks ending October 25, the number of private - sector compensation jobs in the US decreased by an average of 11,250 per week, with a total reduction of 45,000 jobs in that month (excluding government employees), the largest monthly decline in employment since March 2023. The macro - level shows that the number of private - sector jobs in the US ADP in October decreased by 45,000, the largest decline in two and a half years. The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts the supply, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic - trade nickel ore remains stable. The supply of Philippine nickel ore is at a high level, but the grade of nickel ore has declined, and the domestic nickel ore inventory is lower than the same period last year [2] 3.7 View Summary - Newly - invested electrolytic nickel projects are being put into production slowly. Due to low nickel prices and cost - side pressure, some smelters are making losses and reducing production, so the growth of refined nickel output is expected to be limited. On the demand side, stainless - steel mills show the characteristic of a weak peak season, but the decline in the cost of nickel - iron has improved the profit of steel mills, and the planned output is expected to increase. The production and sales of new - energy vehicles continue to rise, and ternary batteries contribute a small incremental demand. The domestic nickel inventory continues to grow, the market mainly purchases on demand, and the spot premium rises; the overseas LME inventory also shows an increase [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - For the nickel market, due to high inventory and an oversupply situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, a significant reduction in Philippine nickel ore production is expected in the fourth quarter, so the rebound of nickel prices should be monitored [3]. - In the stainless - steel market, as demand rebounds less than expected, inventory accumulates, and cost support weakens, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 6, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2512 opened at 119,280 yuan/ton and closed at 119,750 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.07% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 110,740 (-12,708) lots, and the open interest was 118,664 (+3,500) lots. The night session showed a weak oscillation, but the day session rebounded due to mine - end disturbances. Indonesia is strengthening control over illegal nickel ore mining, and the typhoon in the Philippines is affecting local nickel ore mining and transportation [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market had a calm trading atmosphere with stable prices. In the Philippines, rainfall and typhoons affected shipping efficiency. Downstream nickel - iron prices were under pressure, and iron plants were reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is +26, with a premium range of +25 - 27 [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 122,900 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous day. Spot transactions were fair, and the spot premiums of each brand were stable. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,850 yuan/ton, and imported nickel's premium remained at 400 yuan/ton. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,689 (-240) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 253,104 (-24) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 6, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2511 opened at 12,920 yuan/ton and closed at 12,590 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 106,468 (+16,088) lots, and the open interest was 68,420 (-4,171) lots. Affected by the nickel price trend, it showed a similar trend, with a weak oscillation at night and a slight rebound during the day [3][4]. - **Spot**: The spot market sentiment was still pessimistic, with prices continuing to decline and poor transactions. In the afternoon, driven by the futures market, the quotes rebounded, and inquiries increased, but actual transactions were limited. The stainless - steel price in Wuxi market was 12,850 (+0) yuan/ton, and in Foshan market, it was 12,850 (-50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 320 - 620 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 917.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. - **Strategy** - Unilateral: Neutral. - Others: No operations for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

| | 1.受宏观经济及成本压力影响,Glencore流手澳大利亚MurrinNarin操钻矿的3500万澳元联邦可再生能源枢纽补贴。哲停演项目 | | --- | --- | | 资讯 | 的太阳能、风能及电池基础设施开发。当前印尼操供应激增引发银价大幅下跌、BHP、FirstQuantum等企业已帮俗当地运营, | | | 澳大利亚鼎行业信心受挫,MurrinMurrin与IGONova成为该国仅存的两座在产架矿。(上海金属网) | | | 10月30日,沪铁主力合约高开低走,成交量为99113手(-10149),特色量为107897手(-1789),伦躲跌0.75%。现货币场成交 | | | 尚可,基差升水扩大。供给端,银矿价格持平,上周铁矿到港量城少,港口库存去序;煤铁厂亏损幅皮加深,10月国内排产 | | | 增加,印尼排产增加,镍铁去序;10月国内电解裂排产增加,出口盈利扩大。富求端,三元排产增加;不锈钢厂排产增加; | | र्स | 合金与电镀需求稳定。库存来看,上期所增加,LME减少,社会再存增加,保税区库存减少。综上,银基本面偏弱并有厚存 | | | 压力,但估值处于低位,预计镍价低位震荡 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The nickel market's oversupply situation is difficult to change. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate and adjust, with attention paid to the range of 120,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Technically, with an increase in positions and a decline in prices, it will maintain range - bound operation. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily or conduct range - bound operations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for Shanghai nickel is 120,560 yuan/ton, down 1,840 yuan; the spread between the November - December contracts for Shanghai nickel is - 260 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,335 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars. The main contract position of Shanghai nickel is 115,046 lots, up 6,057 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for Shanghai nickel is - 38,140 lots, down 4,457 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 251,238 tons, up 384 tons. The SHFE nickel inventory is 36,075 tons, up 1,656 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 6,408 tons, down 24 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 31,385 tons, up 1,605 tons [3]. b. Spot Market - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 122,150 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate from Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 122,250 yuan/ton, down 900 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 1,590 yuan/ton, up 940 yuan. The LME nickel (spot/3 - month) premium is - 205.18 US dollars/ton, down 11.06 US dollars [3]. c. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 611.45 million tons, down 23.22 million tons; the average monthly import price of nickel ore is 56.72 US dollars/ton. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,497.91 million tons, down 30.93 million tons. The含税 price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3]. d. Industry Situation - The monthly electrolytic nickel production is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly ferronickel production is 21,700 metal tons, down 300 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, up 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, up 0.2112 million tons [3]. e. Downstream Situation - The monthly production of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, up 0.0248 million tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 0.5767 million tons, down 0.0069 million tons [3]. f. Industry News - Wang Yi had a phone call with US Secretary of State Rubio, hoping that both sides would work towards each other to prepare for high - level Sino - US interactions. From January to September, the profits of above - scale equipment manufacturing industry increased by 9.4% year - on - year, 6.2 percentage points higher than the average level of all above - scale industries, driving the profit growth of all above - scale industrial enterprises by 3.4 percentage points. The high - tech manufacturing industry played an obvious leading role, with the profits of above - scale high - tech manufacturing industry increasing by 8.7% year - on - year, 2.7 percentage points faster than from January to August. According to IMF forecasts, by 2030, the ratio of the US government's total debt to GDP will soar by more than 20 percentage points from the current level to 143.4%, breaking the post - pandemic historical record [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Electrolytic nickel: Hold [4][91] - Stainless steel: Sell on rallies [5][117] 2. Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic nickel, the supply - side shows rising nickel ore prices, decreased port arrivals and inventory, reduced domestic ferronickel production and increased Indonesian production, and rising domestic refined nickel production and export profits. The demand - side has increasing production of ternary materials and precursors, rising stainless - steel mill production, and stable alloy plating demand. With increasing social inventory and decreasing bonded - area inventory, the fundamentals are loose, inventory pressure is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [4][91]. - For stainless steel, the production of stainless - steel mills is rising while the 300 - series production is falling, and the terminal demand is weak. The cost support is weakening with falling nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices. With inventory reduction, the upward driving force is expected to be insufficient [5][117]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.1 Nickel Market Review - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated at a low level with a weekly increase of 0.67%. The trading volume decreased to 442,200 lots (- 44,100), and the open interest increased to 121,400 lots (+ 60,900). LME nickel rose 1.32% weekly, and the trading volume decreased to 27,100 lots (- 7,500). The basis premium was 750 yuan/ton [10][12] 1.2 Supply - side Nickel Ore - Last week, the prices of 0.9%, 1.5%, and 1.8% nickel ores rose by 1 dollar/wet ton each, and the shipping price from the Philippines to China remained flat. In September, Philippine nickel ore exports decreased, and China's imports reached 6.11 million tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease and a 33.9% year - on - year increase. Last week, the arrival volume decreased by 818,000 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 290,000 wet tons [16][23][25] Nickel Pig Iron - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron fell by 9 yuan/nickel point, and that of 1.5 - 1.7% nickel pig iron fell by 200 yuan/ton. The negative premium of nickel pig iron to electrolytic nickel widened, and the premium to scrap stainless steel remained flat. In September, China's nickel pig iron imports were 1.085 million tons, a 24.2% month - on - month and 47.2% year - on - year increase, and the imports in October are expected to decline. In October, domestic production and operation rates decreased, while those in Indonesia increased, and nickel pig iron inventory decreased [30][33][41] Electrolytic Nickel - In October, the production and operation rates of refined nickel increased. The export profit of electrolytic nickel expanded. In September, imports increased and exports decreased [47][51][55] 1.3 Demand - side Stainless Steel - In October, stainless - steel production increased while 300 - series production decreased. In September, exports decreased by 6.6% month - on - month and 8.7% year - on - year, and imports increased by 2.7% month - on - month and 0.4% year - on - year, and the imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [60][64] New Energy - The premium between nickel sulfate and pure nickel shrank, and the proportion of pure nickel used to produce nickel sulfate was very small. In October, the production schedules of ternary precursors, ternary materials, and nickel sulfate increased, with month - on - month increases of 16.2%, 4.3%, and 5.1% respectively, and year - on - year increases of 2.8%, 33.7%, and 24.3% respectively. In September, new - energy vehicle production was 1.617 million units, a 16.3% month - on - month and 23.7% year - on - year increase, and sales were 1.604 million units, a 15.0% month - on - month and 24.6% year - on - year increase [70][73][81] 1.4 Inventory - Last week, SHFE and LME nickel inventories increased. Shanghai bonded - area pure nickel inventory decreased by 300 tons, and the six - region social inventory increased by 1,094 tons [82][87] 1.5 Electrolytic Nickel Cost - The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate remained unchanged, while the costs from high - grade nickel matte and MHP increased. MHP integrated production has a significant cost advantage over high - grade nickel matte integrated production [90] 2.2 Cost and Profit - High - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome prices fell, weakening cost support. The 200 - series turned profitable, and the losses of the 300 - series and 400 - series narrowed [97][102] 2.3 Fundamental - In October, stainless - steel production increased while 300 - series production decreased. In September, exports decreased and imports increased, and the imports and exports in October are expected to be similar to those in September [106][109] 2.4 Inventory - The domestic stainless - steel social inventory decreased. The 200 - series inventory remained flat, while the 300 - series and 400 - series inventories decreased [115]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core View of the Report - The surplus pattern of the nickel market is difficult to change, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations, with attention focused on the range of 120,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,380 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; the spread between the October - November contracts of Shanghai nickel is 2,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 260 yuan/ton [3] - The price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,210 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 20 US dollars/ton; the position volume of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 121,311 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 70,923 lots [3] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 36,419 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 1,123 lots; the LME nickel inventory is 250,878 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 402 tons [3] - The inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 34,419 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,300 tons; the total LME nickel cancelled warrants is 6,276 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 156 tons [3] - The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 26,953 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 73 tons [3] Spot Market - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 122,100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 400 yuan/ton; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Metals is 122,200 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 yuan/ton [3] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, with no week - on - week change [3] - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 28,800 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the basis of the NI main contract is 720 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 600 yuan/ton [3] - The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 206.29 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.41 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 6.1145 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 232,200 tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 15.2884 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 279,100 tons [3] - The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 56.72 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.61 US dollars/ton; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, with no week - on - week change [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 21,700 metal tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 300 metal tons [3] - The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 28,570.87 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4,144.03 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0853 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 211,200 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.7627 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 24,800 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 583,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 200 tons [3] Industry News - US President Trump said he would visit China early next year, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson responded that there was no information to provide for the time being [3] - Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao had video talks with EU officials on export control and the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles, and also talked with Dutch officials about issues related to Nexperia [3] - A Reuters survey shows that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice this year, and the interest rate path in 2026 is highly uncertain [3] Key Points of View - On the supply side, the PNBP policy of the Indonesian government restricts the supply, raising the cost of nickel resources; the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is recovering, and the port inventory of nickel ore in China is increasing rapidly [3] - On the smelting side, new electrolytic nickel projects are being put into production slowly, and some smelters are reducing production due to losses at low nickel prices, so the output of refined nickel is expected to remain stable at a high level [3] - On the demand side, it is the traditional consumption peak season for stainless steel plants, and steel mills are increasing production; the production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited [3] - Nickel inventories in China continue to grow, the market mainly purchases on demand, and the spot premium is slightly adjusted upwards; overseas LME inventories are also increasing [3]

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have been fluctuating around 121,000, facing pressure from an overall surplus in the industry chain, with cost support preventing further declines [1] Supply Chain Dynamics - Indonesia accounts for nearly 70% of global nickel production, and the government has tightened control over nickel ore supply by reducing mining quota validity from three years to one year, requiring miners to reapply for previously granted quotas [1] - Nickel ore prices have remained stable recently, with the price for 1.4% nickel ore from the Philippines at FOB 43.5 and domestic prices ranging from CIF 49.5 to 50.5 [1] - Domestic nickel ore inventory reached 15.2884 million wet tons as of October 17, with a cumulative import of 32.167 million tons from January to September, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.89% [2] Production Insights - Nickel pig iron production in China and Indonesia was 178,200 tons in September, showing a slight month-on-month increase of 0.36% and a year-on-year increase of 19.73% [4] - China's refined nickel production in September was 36,795 tons, maintaining a high level, with a cumulative production of nearly 320,000 tons from January to September, up 35.9% year-on-year [6] - Nickel pig iron imports in September were 1.0853 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 24.3% and a year-on-year increase of 47.4% [4] Demand Trends - The demand for nickel is primarily driven by stainless steel, ternary batteries, and nickel alloys, with stainless steel being the most significant [8] - Domestic production of 300 series stainless steel in September was 1.7627 million tons, a slight increase from August, while the production for October is expected to remain stable [8] - The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate has risen to 28,550 yuan per ton, indicating a tightening supply for intermediate products [8] Market Summary - The overall industry chain remains in a state of surplus, with high port inventories and increased nickel pig iron imports from Indonesia, leading to downward pressure on prices [10] - Refined nickel production remains high, with elevated inventories both domestically and in LME, contributing to a loose supply environment [10] - Downstream demand for stainless steel is weak, although there are signs of improvement in the ternary battery sector, which may provide limited support [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the fundamentals of the nickel industry are under pressure. The weakening of ferronickel prices and significant refined nickel inventory pressure are dragging down nickel prices. If the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, nickel prices may not rise significantly and could even decline further. However, in the long - term, global fiscal and monetary easing cycles, combined with China's anti - involution policies, will support nickel prices, and the new RKAB approval in the new year also presents potential positive factors for nickel prices. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. If the nickel price drops sufficiently (115,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton) or the risk preference is high, one can consider gradually establishing long positions. The short - term operating range of the main SHFE nickel contract is expected to be 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME 3M nickel contract is expected to be 14,500 - 16,500 US dollars/ton [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Resource end**: Nickel ore prices have been stable recently. In the Philippines, despite the decline in domestic ferronickel prices and weakening demand, the approaching rainy season in the main producing areas has strengthened the mines' willingness to hold prices, so the short - term decline of Philippine nickel ore prices is unlikely. In Indonesia, the overall supply - demand remains loose, but due to concerns about the RKAB approval quotas in the fourth quarter and 2026, smelters have accelerated stockpiling, limiting the downward space of ore prices [11]. - **Ferronickel**: Ferronickel prices have continued to weaken recently. The slow de - stocking of stainless steel social inventory, limited support for stainless steel prices during the peak season, and low procurement willingness of steel enterprises have led to the weakening of ferronickel prices. The market has gradually shifted to trading the pessimistic expectation of the fundamentals after the peak season, and there is still room for further decline in the future [11]. - **Intermediate products**: On the supply side, the market's available and tradable supply has remained tight, strengthening the sellers' bargaining power, and some traders have raised their quotes, providing price support. On the demand side, as the downstream industries enter the peak demand season, enterprises' raw material procurement demand has been released. In this context, downstream enterprises' acceptance of high - priced MHP has gradually increased, and the MHP coefficient price has remained strong recently [11]. - **Refined nickel**: After the holiday, affected by the non - ferrous metals sector, nickel prices rebounded strongly. However, as the upward driving force weakened and market sentiment faded, nickel prices adjusted downward. Macroscopically, the US government shutdown and the continued Sino - US trade frictions have significantly reduced market risk appetite. In the spot market, overall transactions were average, and the spot premiums and discounts of various refined nickel brands remained stable [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot market**: The prices of Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel decreased, with decreases of 1,420 yuan/ton (- 1.14%) and 1,500 yuan/ton (- 1.22%) respectively. The spot price ratio increased by 0.16 (1.99%), and the import loss decreased by 3.05 percentage points [15]. - **Futures market**: The LME closing price decreased by 105 US dollars (- 0.69%), and the SHFE closing price decreased by 1,020 yuan (- 0.83%). The Russian nickel premium remained unchanged, while the LME nickel premium decreased by 8.2 US dollars/ton. The three - month price ratio increased by 0.18 (2.34%). The LME position decreased by 0.36 million lots (- 1.03%), and the SHFE position increased by 1.44 million lots (6.81%) [15]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory increased by 1.32 million tons (5.54%), the SHFE inventory increased by 0.13 million tons (3.93%), the bonded area inventory decreased by 0.02 million tons (- 4.89%), the nickel plate spot inventory increased by 0.21 million tons (4.86%), and the nickel bean spot inventory decreased by 0.02 million tons (- 11.88%) [15]. 3.3 Cost End - **Nickel ore**: The report provides data on Philippine nickel ore exports, domestic nickel ore imports, port inventories, and prices in Indonesia and the Philippines through multiple charts [29][31][33]. - **Ferronickel**: It shows the monthly production and production profit of ferronickel in Indonesia and China through charts [35][37]. - **Intermediate products**: It presents the production, import volume, and price of Indonesian MHP and ice - nickel, as well as the price and transaction coefficient of intermediate products through charts [39][41][43]. 3.4 Refined Nickel - **Supply**: It shows the monthly production and enterprise operating rate of domestic refined nickel through charts [47]. - **Demand**: It reflects the demand for refined nickel from aspects such as domestic stainless steel production, social inventory, manufacturing terminal demand, and real estate demand through charts [49][51]. - **Import and export**: It shows the import volume and import profit and loss of domestic refined nickel through charts [53]. - **Inventory**: As of September 26, the global visible nickel inventory was reported at 270,000 tons, and the report also shows the domestic refined nickel inventory and LME regional inventory through charts [56][58]. - **Cost**: It shows the production cost and profit margin of domestic refined nickel by raw material and process through charts [59]. 3.5 Nickel Sulfate - **Supply**: It shows the production and net import volume of Chinese nickel sulfate through charts [63]. - **Demand**: It reflects the demand for nickel sulfate from aspects such as ternary power battery loading volume and Chinese ternary precursor production through charts [66]. - **Cost and price**: It shows the production cost, price, and main raw material production profit margin of battery - grade nickel sulfate through charts [68]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Balance - **Global supply outlook**: It shows the global nickel supply outlook through a chart [75]. - **Quarterly supply - demand balance forecast**: From 2023 to 2025, the supply of nickel has generally exceeded the demand, with a total supply - demand surplus of 82,900 tons in 2023, 2,720 tons in 2024, and it is expected to be 166,400 tons in 2025 [75].