1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - International sugar prices fell to the previous low and then rose sharply due to expected lower sugar production and higher consumption in 2026/27, although India's sugar production may exceed expectations. [8] - Domestic sugar prices are under pressure from increased supply during the peak crushing season, but the pressure is expected to ease due to the sharp rebound in international sugar prices and the easing of domestic macro - sentiment, with prices likely to oscillate at the bottom. [8] - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom after hitting the bottom and rebounding, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract is also expected to have a bottom - oscillating price. [9] - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both arbitrage and options, and expect a bottom - oscillating trend for the unilateral position. [9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Futures Market**: SR09 closed at 5,214 with a rise of 37 (0.71%), trading volume of 25,546 (a decrease of 14,196), and an open interest of 116,869 (an increase of 696); SR01 closed at 5,318 with a rise of 38 (0.72%), trading volume of 968 (an increase of 619), and an open interest of 2,391 (an increase of 743); SR05 closed at 5,210 with a rise of 43 (0.83%), trading volume of 215,851 (a decrease of 68,473), and an open interest of 451,761 (an increase of 262). [3] - **Spot Market**: The spot price of sugar in Liuzhou was 5360 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Kunming 5150 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Wuhan 5620 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Nanning 5330 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton), in Bayuquan 5435 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan/ton), in Rizhao 5415 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Xi'an 5750 yuan/ton (unchanged). The corresponding basis was 150, - 60, 410, 120, 225, 205, and 540 respectively. [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The spread of SR05 - SR01 was - 108 (up 5), and the spread of SR09 - SR05 was 4 (down 6), and the spread of SR09 - SR01 was - 104 (down 1). [3] - **Import Profit**: The quota - free price for Brazilian imports was 3921 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 4977 yuan/ton, with a spread of 383 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou and 341 yuan/ton compared to the futures market. For Thai imports, the quota - free price was 3966 yuan/ton, and the out - of - quota price was 5036 yuan/ton, with a spread of 324 yuan/ton compared to Liuzhou and 282 yuan/ton compared to the futures market. [3] 3.2 Market Judgment - **Important Information**: In the 2026/27 sugar - crushing season, the EU's beet planting area is expected to decline by 5% - 7%, and the sugar production is expected to drop from 17.1 million tons in 2025/26 to about 15.5 million tons. [5] - **Important Information**: Brazil's ethanol production in 2026/27 is expected to increase by 7.9% year - on - year to a record high of 36.5 billion liters. The increase may exceed the domestic market's digestion capacity and promote an increase in exports. [6][7] - **Important Information**: As of February 3, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 199 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, with a cumulative cane crushing of 87.029 million tons (an increase of 21.269 million tons compared to the same period last season) and a sugar production of 8.0634 million tons, with an average sugar production rate of 9.27%. [7] - **Logical Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil's sugar influence has declined, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Although India's sugar production may exceed expectations, sugar prices have risen after falling to the previous low due to expected lower production and higher consumption. Domestically, the sugar price pressure is expected to ease, and prices are likely to oscillate at the bottom. [8] - **Trading Strategies**: For the unilateral position, expect a bottom - oscillating price for international sugar and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar May contract; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach. [9][10][11] 3.3 Related Attachments - The attachments include graphs of monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, spot prices in Liuzhou, price spreads between different regions and varieties, and basis and spreads of different futures contracts, with data sources from Galaxy Futures and WIND. [13][17][20]