在新季玉米上市之初，陈粮库存消化比较顺畅。截至10月上旬，全国主要加工企业玉米库存同比下降约20%，北 方四港库存同比下降78%，陈粮供应近乎枯竭。因而新季玉米上市后，价格不跌反涨。 近两年，国内农产品价格不断下滑，而种植成本未有明显下跌，农户对农产品的惜售情绪增强。加之冬季有利于 玉米储存，且后续将迎来元旦、春节等重要节日，玉米的售粮窗口期将延迟。目前，东北售粮进度不足三成，市 场流通粮源偏少。与此同时，过去一段时间，华北地区阴雨持续，令部分玉米出现霉变。因而东北的优质玉米粮 源成为较为稀缺的资源，"优质高价"预期增强。 近段时间，玉米市场呈现期现货联动走强的局面，其中玉米新粮开秤价同比上涨6%～8%。受供应结构性偏紧影 响，企业溢价收购玉米，提振了市场信心。进入冬季，北方降雪天气预计增多，物流环境等因素亦将继续为玉米 市场提供支撑。 机构跟踪的数据显示，2025年全国玉米播种面积稳中有增，预计在4487万公顷。由于主产区光、温、水等条件较 好，玉米单产创出历史新高，预计总产量在29616万吨左右，同比增加124万吨。 今年新季玉米上市以来，中储粮等企业适时启动了玉米收购。虽然其对质量等要求依旧严格，但挂牌 ...

白糖期货周报 震荡走弱 作者：刘珂 投资咨询资格证：Z0016336 联系方式：020-88818026 qhliuke@gf.com.cn 广发期货APP 微信公众号 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明。 2025/11/22 品种观点 | 品种 | 主要观点 | 本周策略 | 上周策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 白糖 | 国际方面：NFCSF预估显示，无论新榨季是否推迟开始，印度新糖总 | | 附近压力情况 | | | 产量将为3500万吨，预计将有350万吨糖用于乙醇生产，巴西进入收 | | | | | 榨尾声，供应宽松格局成定局，整体来看，近期基本面相对平静，前期 | | | | | 利空交易相对比较充分，预计原糖价格在14美分/磅附近将震荡整理一 | 震荡偏弱，偏空交易 | 底部震荡，关注5500-5550 | | | 段时间。 | | | | | 国内方面：广西新糖上市， 市场主流价格基本以之前糖厂预售的基差 | | | | | 糖源， 价格大幅贴水陈糖， 引导期货价格走弱， 期货价格维持弱势， | | | | | 基差糖源价格下跌， ...

只要12月合约维持在上周低点4.2625美元上方，跌势可能受限;但上周4.4275美元的双顶高点仍可能是价格峰值。 Barchart数据显示，周三当月全国现金玉米均价下跌近7美分至3.9125美元。周三现金均价较12月期货低约38.5美分，较上周39.25美分的价差有所 收窄。 尽管本周价格回落，玉米市场仍因创纪录的出口需求保持看涨态势。分析师皮尔森指出："玉米是美国的王牌，我们正引领行业。" 12月玉米期货隔夜尾盘上涨0.5美分至4.3025美元，此前周三下跌7美分至4.2975美元，创11月10日以来最低收盘价。3月合约上涨1美分至4.4250美 元，周三曾下跌8美分至四周收盘低点。 玉米期货隔夜窄幅震荡，延续横盘格局。若大豆价格未再现上涨，该格局或将持续至下周感恩节假期。周三12月合约收盘跌破200日简单移动平 均线(当前位于4.35美元)，同时跌破10日及20日均线(分别为4.3275美元和4.3175美元)。 玉米期货仍获得坚实支撑：现货市场走强、出口旺盛及收割压力缓解。美国农业部本周早些时候报告称，截至上周日收割进度达91%，低于上年 同期的98%，也略低于五年均值94%。 但价格上行空间可能受限 ...

Corn price action is up ¼ to ¾ cent across most contracts to start Thursday trade. Futures closed the Wednesday session under pressure, as contracts were down 7 to 8 cents across most months. Preliminary open interest was down 8,919 contracts on Wednesday, mostly exiting the December, down 30,638 contracts. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was down 6 3/4 cents at $3.91 1/4. Outside markets added pressure, with crude oil down $1.15 and the dollar index up $0.606. Export Sales for the week of ...

该公司高度重视科技研发，公司设立研发中心，斩获36项实用新型专利。芳烃分离萃取精馏、费托合成 副产物资源化利用等核心技术，让企业在行业中占据优势。同时，通过物联网、云计算等技术构建双重 预防体系，推动智能化、绿色化生产，实现经济效益与生态效益双赢。如今，企业已成为西北地区唯一 酯化企业，拥有全国最大单套醋酸酯加工装置，更是西北冰醋酸贸易集散中心、乙醇综合利用发展基地 和醋酸酯生产基地，在精细化工与资源循环领域发挥着重要影响力。未来，公司将围绕"延链、补链、 强链"战略持续发力，通过危废综合利用与衍生品深加工完善"醇、苯、酯"循环产业链，力争形成年产 30万吨酯化产品加工能力。 "你说的那个产品新配方，试验效果咋样？""多亏车间工友一起琢磨，效果出乎意料的好。"清晨的宁夏 睿源精细化工有限公司（简称"宁夏睿源"）职工小餐厅里，食物香气弥漫开来。职工刘学鹏端着一碗热 腾腾的拉面，和技术员胡伟童相对而坐，桌上两杯八宝茶冒着热气，你一言我一语间，既有技术难题的 探讨，也有生活趣事的分享。 在这里，一碗拉面、一杯八宝茶，成了各族职工增进感情的纽带，让"各民族像石榴籽一样紧紧抱在一 起"的理念在潜移默化中，深入人心。 这 ...

10月下半月，巴西中南部地区甘蔗入榨量为3110.8万吨，同比增长14.34%；制糖比为46.02%，较去年同期的45.91%上升0.11个百分点；产糖量为206.8万吨， 同比增长16.4%。截至10月下半月，巴西中南部地区累计甘蔗入榨量为55602.9万吨，同比下降1.97%；制糖比为51.97%，较去年同期的48.59%上升3.38个百 分点；产糖量为3808.5万吨，同比增长1.63%。实际产量数据和市场预期基本一致，丰产仍在榨季末期延续。 需要注意的是，制糖比相比前期有所下滑，市场担忧制糖比快速下滑对整体产量的影响。目前市场普遍预期2025/2026榨季巴西中南部地区糖产量将在4050 万～4150万吨之间，维持丰产格局。展望2026/2027榨季，更多甘蔗或转向乙醇生产，预计巴西中南部地区糖产量回落至4000万吨附近。此外，圣保罗地区 持续干旱，可能影响2026/2027榨季甘蔗生物量积累，需持续跟踪。 [巴西丰产带来高出口] 受干旱天气和宿根蔗经历火灾的影响，巴西2025/2026榨季前期显示甘蔗质量不佳，但是被不断创纪录的超高制糖比所弥补。巴西国家商品供应公司 （Conab）发布的巴西2025 ...

Corn futures closed the Wednesday session under pressure, as contracts were down 7 to 8 cents across most months. The CmdtyView national average Cash Corn price was down 6 3/4 cents at $3.91 1/4. Outside markets added pressure, with crude oil down $1.15 and the dollar index up $0.606. EIA data from this morning showed a rebound of 16,000 barrels per day to 1.091 million bpd in the week ending on November 14. Stocks of ethanol were up 88,000 barrels to 22.307 million barrels. Exports slipped by 12,000 bpd ...

Summary of Green Plains Fireside Chat Company Overview - **Company**: Green Plains - **Industry**: Bio-refining and Renewable Fuels - **Key Operations**: Operates a network of ethanol plants with a focus on low-carbon renewable fuels and sustainable feedstocks, including three carbon capture-enabled facilities in Nebraska [1][2] Core Points and Arguments Strategic Focus - Green Plains is undergoing a multi-year operational and financial transformation emphasizing asset optimization, decarbonization, and disciplined capital allocation [1] - The company aims to be the best low-cost, low-carbon intensity biofuel producer, focusing on operational excellence and continuous improvement [5][6] Financial Performance - The company operates eight facilities with a total ethanol capacity of approximately 680 million gallons and the capability to produce 250,000 tons of high-quality protein products annually [2][3] - Year-to-date value from 45Z tax credits reached $26.5 million, with expectations of an additional $15 million-$25 million in Q4 [7][11] - The company has adjusted its non-Nebraska opportunity down to $38 million from $50 million due to the sale of the Obion asset [14][16] Operational Improvements - Achieved record utilization of 101% in the quarter, driven by fermentation improvements and reduced downtime [23][25] - Focused on maximizing throughput and improving operational efficiency to exceed theoretical capacity [25][26] Market Dynamics - Ethanol margins improved to mid-cycle levels in August and September, driven by seasonal demand and a strong corn crop [27][29] - Export demand for ethanol is expected to exceed 2 billion gallons this year, with growth anticipated in 2026, primarily driven by Canada, the EU, and India [34] Capital Structure and Debt Management - Recently refinanced a portion of convertible debt, extending maturity to 2030 and raising $30 million in cash [18][19] - The company aims to maintain a healthy balance sheet while focusing on operational execution and strategic investments [46][47] Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the potential of E15 fuel in California, viewing it as a significant opportunity for growth, although regulatory hurdles remain [36] - Plans to evaluate and prioritize capital projects to improve operational efficiency and reduce carbon intensity scores [47][48] Other Important Insights - The company is focused on maintaining the health of its assets and addressing safety and environmental opportunities [47] - Green Plains is strategically rationalizing its protein business to focus on high-margin applications in pet care and aquaculture [44] - The company is committed to continuous improvement in SG&A costs, aiming for a run rate in the low $90 million range [21][22] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed during the fireside chat, highlighting Green Plains' strategic direction, financial performance, operational improvements, market dynamics, capital structure, and future outlook.

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: Decline in Brazil's Sugar Production Ratio, Global Output Increase May Fall Short of Expectations [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the global main producing areas are still realizing increased production, but Datagro has significantly lowered the global sugar surplus forecast, mainly reducing the sugar production expectations of Brazil and India. Brazil's final sugar production may fall short of previous expectations due to a significant decline in the sugar production ratio. The international sugar price shows signs of bottoming out and is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term. In the domestic market, the short - term sugar prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, while in the medium - to - long - term, there is still some downward pressure on sugar prices, but the space is relatively limited [3]. - For trading strategies, in the unilateral aspect, it is recommended to operate within a range considering the international and domestic sugar price trends; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis**: Internationally, the decline in Brazil's sugar production ratio and the adjustment of global sugar production expectations affect the international sugar price trend. Domestically, the start of sugar mills' production, import policies, and cost factors influence the domestic sugar price trend. - **Trading Strategies**: - Unilateral: Due to the decline in Brazil's sugar production ratio and the bottoming - out signs of international sugar prices, international sugar prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, while domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate, so it is recommended to operate within a range [4]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [4]. - Options: Wait and see [4]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 1. International Supply - Demand Pattern Changes - **2025/26 Sugar Surplus Reduction**: Czarnikow raised the estimated surplus of the global sugar market in the 2025/26 season to 740,000 tons, while Datagro lowered its forecast of the global sugar supply surplus to 100,000 tons. Datagro also lowered the sugar production forecasts of Brazil and India, and major importers such as China and Indonesia increased their purchases at low prices [8][10]. 2. Brazil's Sugar Production Situation - **High - Level Production Forecast**: According to Conab data, Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 45.02 million tons, slightly higher than that in August and the second - highest in recent years [11]. - **Significant Decline in the Bi - weekly Sugar Production Ratio in Central - Southern Brazil**: In the second half of October 2025, the sugar production ratio in central - southern Brazil decreased by 3 percentage points to 46.02%, while the ethanol production increased [13]. - **Year - on - Year Increase in Sugar Production in Central - Southern Brazil in This Season**: As of October 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in central - southern Brazil reached 38.085 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.63%, but the cumulative ethanol production decreased by 6.91% [18]. - **Significant Increase in Sugar Inventory and Exports**: As of the second half of October, the sugar inventory in central - southern Brazil was 12.1107 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.99%. Brazil exported about 4.205 million tons of sugar in October, a year - on - year increase of 12.8% [23]. 3. Sugar Production in Other Countries - **Slight Increase in Thailand's New Season**: The 2024/25 season's sugar production was 10.05 million tons, and the 2025/26 season is expected to see a slight increase, with an expected increase in exports of 1 million tons [27]. - **India's Sugar Production and Policy**: ISMA estimated that the total sugar production in the 2025/26 season would be 34.35 million tons, and the net production after excluding ethanol use would be 30.95 million tons. The Indian government approved the export of 1.5 million tons of sugar in the 2025/26 season, and the northern states raised the purchase price of sugarcane [35]. 4. Domestic Sugar Market Situation - **Sugar Mills Start Production**: Sugar mills in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Guangxi have started or are about to start production. The start - up time in Guangxi has been postponed, and the number of start - up mills is expected to be significantly lower than the same period last year [39]. - **High Import Profits**: The import profit situation of sugar from Brazil and Thailand shows that there are certain profit opportunities [40][41]. - **Decline in Import Volume**: In September 2025, China imported 550,000 tons of sugar, and the import volume of syrup and pre - mixed powder decreased. It is expected that the import volume in October will be similar to that of last year [48]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - The report provides a large amount of data on Brazil's sugar production, including cumulative sugar production, cumulative cane crushing volume, bi - weekly sugar production ratio, etc.; India's sugar production and export data; Thailand's sugar production and export data; and China's sugar production, import volume, and inventory data [14][17][23][39][48]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.07 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a decrease of 3.07 billion yuan year-on-year, representing a 74% decline. In Q3 2025, the net profit was 40 million yuan, down 1.17 billion yuan year-on-year (97%) and down 300 million yuan quarter-on-quarter (89) [2][6] - The coal price is expected to improve further from Q4 2025, which may lead to better profitability in coal operations compared to Q3. Future growth is anticipated from the recovery of the Xinhu Mine by year-end, the expected production of 8 million tons from the Tao Hutu project in the first half of 2026, and the construction of 8.5 million tons of non-coal mining capacity and 2×660MW power generation units expected to be operational by year-end [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company produced 13.04 million tons of coal, a decrease of 2.63 million tons year-on-year (17%), and sold 9.81 million tons, down 2.06 million tons (17%). The decline in production and sales was mainly due to adjustments in production and sales schedules. In Q3 2025, coal production and sales were 4.13 million tons and 3.34 million tons, respectively, down 1.22 million tons (23%) and 510,000 tons (13%) year-on-year, and down 470,000 tons (10%) and 170,000 tons (5%) quarter-on-quarter [12] - The average selling price of coal for Q1-Q3 2025 was 804 yuan per ton, down 311 yuan per ton (28%) year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the average selling price was 743 yuan per ton, down 309 yuan per ton (29%) year-on-year and down 4 yuan per ton (1%) quarter-on-quarter [12] - The cost per ton of coal for Q1-Q3 2025 was 461 yuan, down 96 yuan (17%) year-on-year. In Q3 2025, the cost was 446 yuan per ton, down 95 yuan (18%) year-on-year and up 20 yuan (5%) quarter-on-quarter [12] Future Outlook - The company expects improved profitability in coal operations starting from Q4 2025 due to rising coal prices. The Xinhu Mine is anticipated to resume operations by year-end, and the Tao Hutu project is expected to start production in the first half of 2026. Additionally, the company has 8.5 million tons of non-coal mining capacity under construction and 2×660MW power generation units expected to be operational by year-end, which are projected to contribute to incremental profits [2][12] Earnings Forecast - The company’s earnings are projected to be 1.5 billion, 2.3 billion, and 2.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. As of November 13, the corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 23.75, 15.42, and 14.63 times [12]