Core Viewpoint - The sugar market is experiencing a shift with increased production forecasts from both Brazil and Thailand, leading to a potential oversupply in the global sugar market for the 2025/26 season [1][2]. Group 1: Market Data - As of October 22, the number of white sugar futures warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is 8,313, a decrease of 63 from the previous trading day [1]. - The profit from producing white sugar using imported Brazilian raw sugar is approximately 1,865 CNY/ton (within tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 755 CNY/ton (outside tariff quota, 50% tariff) [1]. - The profit from producing white sugar using imported Thai raw sugar is about 1,780 CNY/ton (within tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 643 CNY/ton (outside tariff quota, 50% tariff) [1]. - Datagro forecasts Brazil's sugar production for the next season (April 2026 to March 2027) to be 43.2 million tons, up from the current season's estimate of 41.42 million tons [1]. - The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 1.98 million tons in the 2025/26 season, contrasting with a shortage of 5 million tons in the previous year [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - According to Everbright Futures, there are no rebound drivers for raw sugar in the near term, with production in the southern hemisphere largely determined and strong expectations for increased production in the northern hemisphere [2]. - The domestic spot market continues to clear inventory, with favorable rainfall in Guangxi leading to good cane growth, although autumn rainfall has resulted in lower sugar content in cane [2]. - The price of sugar is expected to remain weak, testing the support level of 5,400 CNY [2]. - Huawen Futures notes that the increase in domestic new sugar production, combined with external pressures, is likely to keep sugar prices on a weak trend, with attention on potential damage to new season cane in Guangxi and Yunnan [3].