Market Review - On Tuesday, sugar futures prices rebounded, with the January contract closing at 5483 CNY/ton, an increase of 38 CNY/ton or 0.7% from the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - According to S&P Global's survey of 11 analysts, the sugarcane crushing volume in Brazil's central-south region is expected to decrease by 1.5% year-on-year in the first half of October, totaling 33.42 million tons. However, sugar production in the same region is projected to increase by 0.6% to 2.47 million tons [2] - In October, sugar enterprises in Guangxi are nearing the end of their sales work, with sugar production expected to commence in late October or early November, marking the start of the new crushing season [2] - As of October 24, the cost of imported sugar from Brazil within quota is 4085 CNY/ton (15% tariff), which is 1695 CNY/ton lower than Guangxi sugar prices; outside the quota, the cost is 5192 CNY/ton (50% tariff), 588 CNY/ton lower than Guangxi sugar prices [2] Institutional Perspectives - Shenwan Hongyuan Futures noted that the increase in new sugar supply from Brazil is leading the global sugar market into a phase of inventory accumulation. The reduction in Brazilian oil prices is causing ethanol prices to decline, resulting in a downward shift in sugar price levels. Raw sugar prices have broken through their range, and a downward trend is expected, although domestic costs during the new crushing season may provide some support for sugar prices in the short term [3] - Guotou Anxin Futures observed that overnight US sugar prices were volatile. With high sugar production levels in Brazil and favorable production expectations in India and Thailand, the international market is well-supplied, putting pressure on US sugar prices. Domestically, market focus is shifting towards estimates for the new crushing season. Weather conditions in Guangxi during the third quarter have been favorable, with rainfall above average. Remote sensing data indicates an increase in the vegetation index for sugarcane in Guangxi, suggesting positive expectations for sugar production in the 25/26 crushing season, with attention on future weather and sugarcane growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The sugar market is experiencing a shift with increased production forecasts from both Brazil and Thailand, leading to a potential oversupply in the global sugar market for the 2025/26 season [1][2]. Group 1: Market Data - As of October 22, the number of white sugar futures warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is 8,313, a decrease of 63 from the previous trading day [1]. - The profit from producing white sugar using imported Brazilian raw sugar is approximately 1,865 CNY/ton (within tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 755 CNY/ton (outside tariff quota, 50% tariff) [1]. - The profit from producing white sugar using imported Thai raw sugar is about 1,780 CNY/ton (within tariff quota, 15% tariff) or 643 CNY/ton (outside tariff quota, 50% tariff) [1]. - Datagro forecasts Brazil's sugar production for the next season (April 2026 to March 2027) to be 43.2 million tons, up from the current season's estimate of 41.42 million tons [1]. - The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 1.98 million tons in the 2025/26 season, contrasting with a shortage of 5 million tons in the previous year [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - According to Everbright Futures, there are no rebound drivers for raw sugar in the near term, with production in the southern hemisphere largely determined and strong expectations for increased production in the northern hemisphere [2]. - The domestic spot market continues to clear inventory, with favorable rainfall in Guangxi leading to good cane growth, although autumn rainfall has resulted in lower sugar content in cane [2]. - The price of sugar is expected to remain weak, testing the support level of 5,400 CNY [2]. - Huawen Futures notes that the increase in domestic new sugar production, combined with external pressures, is likely to keep sugar prices on a weak trend, with attention on potential damage to new season cane in Guangxi and Yunnan [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Typhoons around the National Day have negatively affected sugarcane harvesting and production in South China, causing lodging and waterlogging of sugarcane in the producing areas. There is seasonal upward momentum in sugar prices due to the short - term gap between old and new crops after the festival. In the medium term, the rain - heat conditions in the southern main producing areas are suitable this year, and the sugarcane growth is very good. After the new sugar is listed, the rebound space is expected to be limited [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Sugar Price Data - On October 9, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi was 5870 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5820 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Dali, Yunnan it was 5740 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan; in Rizhao, Shandong it was 5930 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The price of SR01 was 5528 yuan, up 35 yuan; the price of SR05 was 5492 yuan, up 34 yuan. The price difference between SR09 - 01 was 36 yuan, up 1 yuan [4]. Exchange Rate and International Commodity Data - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1516, up 0.0109; the exchange rate of the real against the RMB was 1.2818, up 0.0212; the exchange rate of the rupee against the RMB was 0.084, down 0.0004. The ice raw sugar main contract was 16.32, down 0.28; the London white sugar main contract was 573, up 3; the Brent crude oil main contract was 66.08, down 0.07 [4].

Market Review - ICE raw sugar October contract rose by 1.85% last Friday, while the overnight white sugar 2509 contract increased by 0.21% [1] Fundamental Summary - According to UkrAgroConsult, the Indian sugar industry, which previously benefited from ethanol blending policies, is now facing new challenges due to policy adjustments [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs reported that the supply and demand forecast for the 2025/26 sugar season remains consistent with last month. The drought in Guangxi has negatively impacted sugarcane sprouting and growth, resulting in shorter and fewer sugarcane compared to the same period last year [2] - For the 2024/25 crushing season, Guangxi has processed 48.5954 million tons of sugarcane, a decrease of 2.5847 million tons year-on-year. The mixed sugar production reached 6.465 million tons, an increase of 283,600 tons or 4.59% year-on-year, with a sugar extraction rate of 13.30%, up by 1.22 percentage points year-on-year [2] Institutional Perspectives - Changjiang Futures noted that Brazil's Central-South region is expected to maintain high sugar production for the 2025/26 season, alongside increased production in India and slight growth in Thailand, leading to an oversupply situation that may suppress ICE sugar prices. However, as the crushing season peaks, actual production data from Brazil's main producing areas may not meet expectations [3] - Domestic market factors are mixed, with faster production and sales this season, ongoing summer consumption, and improved purchasing willingness from downstream sectors, particularly in the food and beverage industry. This has led to a significant reduction in industrial inventory, providing some support for sugar prices. However, long-term pressures from import profits and supply remain, with short-term stability expected due to low inventory levels [3] - Southwest Futures indicated that while Brazil's crushing is set to accelerate, production increase expectations have been adjusted downward. With low current inventory and anticipated high imports in the next two months, supply-demand conflicts are not acute, suggesting a neutral valuation after short-term basis adjustments, recommending a wait-and-see approach [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum, Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - Bearish: Coke, Coking Coal, BR Rubber [1] - Neutral: Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium Carbonate, Rebar, Hot Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferro - Silicon, Glass, Soda Ash, Cotton, Pulp, Crude Oil, Asphalt, Shanghai Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short Fiber, Pure Benzene, Styrene, PP, PVC, Aluminum Oxide, LPG, Container Shipping European Line [1] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, and options tools can be used to hedge uncertainties [1] - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward trend [1] - The situation has slightly eased, and the gold price may return to a volatile state in the short term; the long - term upward logic remains solid [1] - The market should pay attention to tariff - related developments and domestic and foreign economic data changes due to the repeated market sentiment affected by the Middle East geopolitical risks and the resilience of China's May economic data [1] Summaries by Industry Categories Macro - finance - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term central bank warnings on interest - rate risks suppress the upward movement [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Market risk appetite has declined, downstream demand has entered the off - season, and there is a risk of price correction after the copper price has risen [1] - Aluminum: Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has continued to decline, and the risk of a short squeeze still exists, with the aluminum price remaining strong; alumina spot price is relatively stable, while the futures price is weak, and the futures discount is obvious [1] - Nickel: The Middle East geopolitical risk persists, and the domestic May economic data shows resilience. The nickel price is in a short - term weak shock, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - Stainless steel: The price of nickel iron has fallen, steel mill price limits are fluctuating, spot sales are weak, and social inventory has slightly increased. The short - term futures price is in a weak shock, and there is still long - term supply pressure [1] - Tin: The supply contradiction of tin ore has intensified in the short term, and the increase in Wa State's tin ore production still takes time, so the short - term tin price is in a high - level shock [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and the price has fallen. The chemical industry as a whole has followed the decline in the crude oil price [1] - PTA: The spot basis remains strong, PXN is expected to be compressed due to the delay of Northeast PX device maintenance and market rumors of the postponement of Zhejiang reforming device maintenance [1] - Ethylene Glycol: It continues to reduce inventory, and the arrival volume will decrease. Polyester production cuts have an impact on the market [1] - Short fiber: In the case of a high basis, the cost is closely related to the price. Short - fiber factories have started maintenance plans [1] - Pure benzene and styrene: The price of pure benzene has started to weaken, the load of styrene devices has increased, and the basis has also weakened [1] - PP: The price is in a volatile and slightly downward trend, with limited support from maintenance [1] - PVC: After the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the downstream enters the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure increases [1] - Alumina: The electricity price has dropped, and non - aluminum demand is weaker than last year. The market is trading the price - cut expectation in advance [1] - LPG: Geopolitical sentiment has eased, and the price premium is expected to be repaired [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil: The US biodiesel RVO quota proposal exceeds market expectations, which may tighten the global oil supply - demand situation, and they are considered bullish in the short term [1] - Cotton: There are short - term disturbances in US cotton, and the long - term macro uncertainty is strong. The domestic cotton price is expected to be in a weak shock [1] - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high, but the oil price may affect the sugar production through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1] - Corn: The overall supply - demand situation in the corn year is tight, and the short - term price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Bean粕: Before the release of the USDA planting area report at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to be in a shock [1] - Pulp: The current demand is light, but the downward space is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Hog: The inventory is being repaired, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the futures price is relatively stable [1] Others - Container Shipping European Line: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. The peak - season contracts can be lightly tested for long positions, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [1]