Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For sugar, due to the unclear situation between the US and Iran and unstable international oil prices, and the recent rise of raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar being mainly driven by rising crude oil prices, the view on sugar price trends turns to wait - and - see [5] - For cotton, Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US cotton prices. In the medium term, with the current increase in the operating rate of domestic mid - and downstream enterprises, it is recommended to try to go long on dips [8] - For protein meal, Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US soybean prices and raises the valuation of domestic protein meal. However, the relaxation of inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports by customs is negative for protein meal prices. Recently, protein meal prices have large fluctuations and lack certainty, so short - term wait - and - see is maintained [11] - For oils and fats, the current price trend of oils and fats mainly depends on the US - Iran incident. Before the end of the incident, crude oil prices remain high, and there is an expectation of Indonesia tightening palm oil exports. So, a bullish view on oils and fats is maintained in the medium term [14] - For eggs, the overall supply is not in short supply, but the limited number of newly - laid hens makes small eggs in short supply. Seasonal stocking boosts the spot price, but the short - term upside is limited. The near - month futures follow the strength, but in the future, attention should be paid to the pressure of falling demand, delayed culling, molting, and an increase in newly - laid hens. Hold short positions in the far - end contracts and wait to short on rebounds in the near - end contracts [17] - For pigs, the slaughter scale is large and the weight is still increasing, and the improvement space of the supply - side fundamentals is limited. Under the pessimistic expectation, there is no bottom - supporting force such as active frozen product warehousing and concentrated entry of second - fattening to break the negative cycle. The short - term spot price is still weak. The futures contracts have high premiums, but the game pressure under high positions also increases, and the near - end fluctuations increase. The overall idea is to short on rebounds, and there is no value in going long in the far - end contracts. When the overall position is too large, pay attention to realizing profits in time [20] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Market Information**: In the first half of March, sugar mills in the central - southern region of Brazil used 95.14% of sugarcane for ethanol production, compared with 69.87% in the same period last year. It is predicted that Brazil's sugar exports in the 2026/27 season will decrease by 14.2% to 29 million tons, and the sugar output will drop from 43.5 million tons in the previous year to 40.3 million tons. From January to February 2026, China imported 280,000 tons and 240,000 tons of sugar respectively, an increase of 220,000 tons each compared with the same period last year. As of March 15, 2026, India's cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season was 26.21 million tons, an increase of 2.49 million tons year - on - year. Thailand's sugar output in the 2025/26 season as of March 15, 2026, reached 10.27 million tons, an increase of 545,000 tons year - on - year. The ISO predicted in late February that the global sugar output in the 2025/26 season would be 181.29 million tons [4] Cotton - **Market Information**: Trump announced a plan to visit China from May 14 to 15. From January to February 2026, China imported 210,000 tons and 170,000 tons of cotton respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 50,000 tons compared with the same period last year; and imported 160,000 tons and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn respectively, an increase of 60,000 tons and 20,000 tons compared with the same period last year. The NDRC issued an additional 300,000 - ton tariff - rate quota for processing trade imports with preferential tariff rates. From March 12 to 19, the US current - year cotton export sales were 52,900 tons, and the cumulative export sales were 2.2449 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 154,400 tons; the export to China in that week was 3,300 tons, and the cumulative export to China was 109,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72,500 tons. As of the week of March 27, the spinning mill operating rate was 78.5%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 2.5 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The USDA predicted in March that the global cotton output in the 2025/26 season would be 26.34 million tons, a 240,000 - ton increase from the February prediction and a 540,000 - ton increase from the previous year; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 64.42%, a 1.15 - percentage - point increase from the February prediction and a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous year. The predicted US cotton output in March was 3.03 million tons, the same as the February prediction, the export forecast remained unchanged, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 30.43%, the same as before. Brazil's output forecast increased by 160,000 tons to 4.25 million tons; India's output forecast remained at 5.12 million tons; China's output increased by 100,000 tons to 7.73 million tons [6][7] Protein Meal - **Market Information**: Trump announced a plan to visit China from May 14 to 15. From March 5 to 12, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, and the current - year cumulative export of soybeans was 36.79 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons; the export to China in that week was 80,000 tons, and the current - year cumulative export to China was 10.98 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons. As of the week of March 27, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 18.14 million tons, an increase of 2.99 million tons year - on - year; the sample soybean port inventory was 4.83 million tons, an increase of 2.27 million tons year - on - year. The USDA predicted in March that the global soybean output in the 2025/26 season would be 427.17 million tons, a 990,000 - ton decrease from the February prediction and a 28,000 - ton increase from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio was 29.54%, a 0.01 - percentage - point decrease from February and a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease from the previous year. The predicted US soybean output was 115.99 million tons, the same as the February prediction; the predicted Brazilian output was 180 million tons, the same as the February prediction; the predicted Argentine output was 48 million tons, a 500,000 - ton decrease from the February prediction. In the March prediction, the US export volume forecast remained at 42.86 million tons [10] Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: Indonesia will increase the palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel from 40% to 50% this year. The US EPA set the total biofuel compliance obligation at 26.81 billion RINs in 2026 and 27.02 billion RINs in 2027, and required large - scale refiners to bear 70% of the exemption quota. Indonesia requires coal, crude palm oil and its derivative production enterprises not to export related products before meeting domestic demand. The Indonesian government is studying the possibility of restarting the B50 mandatory blending policy in the middle of this year. In January 2026, Indonesia's total palm oil exports were 2.3 million tons, a decrease of 490,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 860,000 tons year - on - year. In February, Malaysia's palm oil output was 1.28 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 90,000 tons year - on - year; the export volume was 1.13 million tons, a decrease of 330,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 130,000 tons year - on - year; the inventory was 2.7 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons from the previous month and an increase of 1.19 million tons year - on - year. As of the end of February, India's vegetable oil inventory was 1.87 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons from the previous month and basically the same as the same period last year. In the week of March 20, the inventory of the three major domestic oils and fats in the sample data was 1.95 million tons, a decrease of 95,000 tons year - on - year [13] Eggs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, most egg prices in China fell. The average price in the main producing areas dropped slightly to 3.39 yuan per catty. The price of large - sized eggs in Heishan dropped 0.05 yuan to 3.15 yuan per catty, and the price in Guantao dropped 0.05 yuan to 3.04 yuan per catty. The supply was normal, the market sales slowed down in most cases, and industry players mostly held a conservative wait - and - see attitude. It is expected that the short - term egg prices in China may be partly stable and partly fall [16] Pigs - **Market Information**: Yesterday, the mainstream domestic pig prices were stable, with partial slight increases and decreases. The average price in Henan increased 0.03 yuan to 9.54 yuan per kilogram, the average price in Sichuan remained at 9.26 yuan per kilogram, and the average price in Guizhou remained at 8.69 yuan per kilogram. Near the beginning and end of the month, the slaughter volume of the breeding side was limited, which supported the pig prices. However, the current slaughter volume of the slaughter side was average and showed no improvement, having limited impact on pig prices. It is expected that today's pig prices will be mainly stable [19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Brazilian sugar has not been crushed, and the international market news is in a vacuum period. The raw sugar price lacks more upward drivers and is expected to remain volatile. The number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped have been decreasing. In the domestic market, the beet sugar pressing in the north has ended, with the output basically in line with expectations, while the cane sugar output has exceeded expectations. The domestic sugar output is expected to be around 12 million tons. Currently, the sugar market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with certain pressure on prices. However, the high energy prices drive the strong sentiment of commodities, providing support for sugar. It is expected that the domestic sugar price will fluctuate and move slightly upwards [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5441 yuan/ton, a decrease of 23 yuan; the main contract position is 304,083 lots, a decrease of 8802 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 16,862 sheets, an increase of 520 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -122,723 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 sheets, a decrease of 520 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The import processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4383 yuan/ton, an increase of 52 yuan; the import processing estimated price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4330 yuan/ton, an increase of 63 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5565 yuan/ton; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5495 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5325 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5460 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5470 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sowing area is 1480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares; the sowing area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, an increase of 5.24 thousand hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The total export volume of Brazilian sugar is 222.97 tons, an increase of 21.22 tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1032 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1085 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is -150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 58 yuan; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is -80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 71 yuan; the monthly import volume of sugar is 24 tons, a decrease of 4 tons; the cumulative import volume of sugar is 52 tons, an increase of 24 tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 199.23 tons, an increase of 44.17 tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Yunnan is 69.75 tons, an increase of 16.55 tons; the cumulative output of cane sugar in Guangxi is 565.13 tons, an increase of 162.23 tons; the cumulative output of cane sugar in Yunnan is 149.34 tons, an increase of 50.93 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 359.04 tons, an increase of 228.74 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1342.1 tons, an increase of 296.4 tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 14.71%, an increase of 3.28%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 14.6%, an increase of 3.17%; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 10.75%, a decrease of 0.2%; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 10.05%, a decrease of 0.04% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association Unica, in the first half of March, the sugarcane crushed in the central - southern region of Brazil was 1.31 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.7%; the sugar production was 0.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 88.6%; sugar mills used 95.14% of the sugarcane to produce ethanol, compared with 69.87% in the same period last year [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - As of the current time, the domestic sugar production and sales progress is slow, but there is a strong expectation of increased sugar production in Guangxi during the 2025/26 sugar - making season. Attention should be paid to the later production situation. The industrial inventory is still in an upward cycle, and the supply is at its peak. After the festival, there is a seasonal consumption off - season, and sugar prices may remain weak. However, in the short term, domestic sugar prices are relatively resistant to decline due to cost support [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5,285 yuan/ton, with a change of 37. The main contract's open interest is 462,071 lots, with a change of 15,849. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 14,461, with no change. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 83,994 lots. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,029 yuan/ton, with no change, and that of Thai sugar is 3,980 yuan/ton, with a change of 1. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,103 yuan/ton, with no change [2] 现货市场 - The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5,190 yuan/ton, with a change of 20. The spot price of sugar in Guangxi Nanning is 5,350 yuan/ton, with a change of 20. The spot price of white sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,360 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - cane planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, with a change of 60. The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 155.06 million tons. The total sugar export volume from Brazil is 201.75 million tons. The planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, with a change of 5.24. The cumulative production volume of cane sugar in Yunnan is 98.41 million tons, with a change of 59.18. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,257 yuan/ton, with a change of 28. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,306 yuan/ton, with a change of 28. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 183 yuan/ton, with a change of 28. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 246 yuan/ton, with a change of 27 [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of sugar is 58 million tons, with a change of 14. The cumulative import volume of sugar is 492 million tons, with a change of 58 [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production volume of refined sugar is 359.04 million tons, with a change of 228.74. The monthly production volume of soft drinks is 1,342.1 million tons, with a change of 296.4 [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 10.08%, with a change of 0.1. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 10.07%, with a change of 0.04. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 9.1%, with a change of - 0.91. The 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 9.17%, with a change of 0.01 [2] Industry News - According to the third production forecast released by the Indian Sugar and Bioenergy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), the sugar production in India during the 2025 - 26 sugar - making season is expected to be 32.409 billion tons, the ethanol - sugar transfer volume is 3.1 billion tons, and the net sugar production is 29.3 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 12%. The initial inventory is 8.5 billion tons. The ICE raw sugar futures were nearly flat on Wednesday. The bleak sugar production outlook in India offset the impact of the rising Brazilian real. The most actively traded May raw sugar futures on ICE closed down 0.01 cents or 0.1%, at 14.0 cents per pound [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Under the dual supply pressure of new sugar and imported sugar, sugar prices are expected to run weakly. Brazil's 2025/26 sugar - making season is basically over, but there are strong expectations of a bumper harvest in the 2026/27 season. India and Thailand have strong production increase expectations and are in the peak production season. The current raw sugar price is significantly lower than the production cost, and the ethanol price is relatively strong, with a neutral raw sugar valuation. Domestically, the domestic sugar production is expected to increase slightly, and it is currently in the peak production season. The import volume remains high from January to February, facing double pressure from domestic new sugar and imported sugar. During the off - season of demand, prices are expected to run weakly [20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Brazil's Basic Situation - Brazil is the world's largest sugar producer and exporter. In the 2024/25 sugar - making season, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil was 4017000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 226000 tons, and the sugar - making ratio was 48.14%. In the second half of December 2025, the cumulative sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 600 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.28%; the cumulative sugar production was 4022000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.86%. It is expected that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in this sugar - making season will be around 4050000 - 4100000 tons. As of the end of December 2025, Brazil's sugar inventory was 896000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 62000 tons, and the inventory level was neutral. Stonex (November 2025) predicted that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2026/27 sugar - making season would be around 4150000 tons, and the estimates of other institutions were also in this range. The new sugar - making season will start production in April, and the final sugar output will still depend on the sugar - making ratio [2]. - Brazil's ethanol demand remains strong, and the ethanol price continues to rise. Currently (late January), the sugar - making price reaches around 17.35 cents. At the current raw sugar price, sugar mills are more inclined to produce ethanol [3]. India and Thailand's Sugar Production India - According to the data of the Indian Sugar and Bio - energy Manufacturers Association (ISMA), the sugar production in India in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was about 2590000 tons. According to the report of the NFCSF, it is estimated that the total sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - making season will be 3500000 tons (350000 tons of sugar will be used for ethanol production). The domestic sugar consumption is expected to be 2900000 tons, the initial inventory is 500000 tons, and the export surplus is 200000 - 250000 tons. The government announced in November that it would allow the export of 150000 tons of new sugar. India's export parity is around 18 - 19 cents per pound, and it is difficult to export effectively at the current raw sugar price. The first bi - weekly report of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) showed that as of January 15, 2026 (starting from October 1, 2025), India's sugar production increased from 1306000 tons in the same period last year to 1588500 tons [5]. Thailand - Thailand is a major global sugar - producing country and the world's second - largest sugar exporter. About 75% of the sugar it produces is for export, so the change in Thailand's supply has an important impact on the global trade flow. According to the final data of the Office of the Cane and Sugar Board (OCSB) and industry institutions, Thailand's sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 1014000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. According to the latest assessment of the Thai Sugar Company, Thailand's sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - making season is expected to increase by 5% to 1050000 tons, mainly due to the expansion of the sugarcane planting area and sufficient rainfall. As of January 17, 2026 (2025/26 sugar - making season), Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 286510 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55810 tons, a decrease of 16.3% [9]. Domestic Supply and Demand Situation New - year Domestic Sugar Production - According to the statistics of the China Sugar Association, the sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 1116000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 120000 tons. The market expects that the sugar production in China in the 2025/26 sugar - making season will be around 1150000 tons. Currently, the domestic market is in the peak production season, and the short - term supply pressure of domestic new sugar has increased [12]. High - level Sugar Imports - China's imported sugar is divided into two categories: within the quota and outside the quota. The import within the quota is subject to a 15% tariff. Since May 22, 2017, a three - year trade safeguard tariff has been implemented for imports outside the quota. After it expired on May 21, 2020, the tariff for imports outside the quota was restored to 50%. According to the data released by the General Administration of Customs, in December 2025, China imported a total of 580000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 190000 tons; from January to December, the cumulative import was 4920000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 570000 tons. In December 2025, Brazil's sugar export volume was 2910000 tons, of which about 390000 tons were exported to China, which means that there will be more imported sugar arriving at Chinese ports in the next one to two months, and the supply pressure of imported sugar in the domestic market is still high [15]. Controlled Syrup Imports with a Sharp Decline - In recent years, the volume of China's imported syrup has increased significantly, and currently about 95% of the syrup comes from Thailand. In December 2024, the import declaration of Thai syrup and premixed powder was suspended, and there was no specific indication of the resumption time. In March 2025, the safety management system of some sugar products (syrup and premixed powder) from Vietnam was evaluated and reviewed. Before the evaluation and review were completed and the risks were confirmed to be eliminated, the import declaration of such products was suspended. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, in December 2025, China imported a total of 69700 tons of syrup premixed powder (including syrup and premixed powder), a year - on - year decrease of 120800 tons, reaching the lowest level in the same period in the past five years, mainly affected by import control policies and market demand adjustments. The cumulative import in 2025 was 1188800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1187900 tons, a decrease of about 50% [16][18].

Report Title - Sugar Weekly Report: India's Sugar Production Increases, Thailand's Decreases, and International Sugar Prices Fluctuate at the Bottom [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - International sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, while domestic sugar prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is advisable to consider buying at the lower end of the range and selling at the higher end. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is suggested [3][4] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Trading Strategies** - **Single-sided Trading**: International sugar prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. Domestic sugar prices will fluctuate within a range, and investors can consider buying at the lower end and selling at the higher end [4] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [4] - **Options**: Sell put options [4] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Market** - **Global Supply and Demand Pattern**: In the 2025/26 sugar season, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus of 163,000 tons. The sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% year-on-year to 181.77 million tons, while consumption will only increase by 0.6% to 180.14 million tons. In the 2024/25 sugar season, the global sugar market had a supply-demand gap of 292,000 tons. The 2026/27 sugar season is expected to have no significant increase in production, with a high probability of remaining at a high level or slightly decreasing [9] - **Brazil**: The sugarcane crushing season in Brazil is coming to an end. In the second half of December, the sugar production in the central-southern region decreased by 14.93% year-on-year. The 2025/26 sugar season's cumulative sugar production increased by 0.86% year-on-year, but the overall increase may fall short of expectations. The ethanol production and sales situation shows that the current alcohol-to-sugar price is about 17.57 cents per pound, and the alcohol-to-oil ratio in São Paulo is around 0.705. As of December 30, the sugar inventory in the central-southern region increased year-on-year, and the export volume decreased year-on-year. In the future, Brazil's sugar exports will experience a seasonal decline, reducing the global supply pressure [10][18][22] - **Thailand**: In the 25/26 sugar season, Thailand's sugar production is expected to increase slightly by 1 million tons, and the export volume is expected to increase by 1 million tons. As of January 17, 2026, the cumulative sugar production decreased year-on-year. Looking ahead to the 2026/27 season, Thailand's sugar production may decline by 7.5% to 9.9 million tons [28] - **India**: As of January 15, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar season reached 15.909 million tons, an increase of nearly 22% year-on-year. The final production may increase significantly year-on-year and may exceed expectations [32] - **Domestic Market** - **Production**: In the 2025/26 sugar season, as of December 31, the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi decreased year-on-year, while in Yunnan, it increased year-on-year [36] - **Sales and Inventory**: As of December 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar sales in Guangxi decreased year-on-year, and the inventory decreased slightly year-on-year. In Yunnan, the cumulative sugar sales increased year-on-year, and the inventory increased year-on-year [39] - **Imports**: In December 2025, China's sugar imports increased year-on-year, and the imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased year-on-year. The import profit is relatively high, but most of the imports have already been priced, so the correlation between domestic and foreign price differences is not significant [44][46]

Sugar Industry - The average sugarcane yield in Brazil's central-south region for December 2025 is projected to be 73.4 tons per hectare, an increase of 26.6% compared to 58 tons per hectare in the same period of 2024 [2] - The cumulative yield for the 2025/26 crushing season (April to December) is expected to be 74.7 tons per hectare, down 4.6% from 78.3 tons per hectare in the previous season [2] - Spot prices for sugar in Guangxi range from 5270 to 5360 yuan per ton, down by 10 to 20 yuan per ton; in Yunnan, prices are between 5120 and 5160 yuan per ton, down by 20 to 30 yuan per ton [2][6] - The raw sugar market continues to show a fluctuating pattern, with domestic spot prices declining and transaction volumes decreasing, leading to a sustained accumulation of inventory [2][6] Cotton Industry - ICE cotton prices fell by 0.06% to 64.3 cents per pound, while Zheng cotton's main contract rose by 0.17% to 14535 yuan per ton, with a decrease in open interest by 908 contracts to 787200 contracts [3][7] - The cotton 3128B spot price index is at 15445 yuan per ton, an increase of 55 yuan per ton from the previous day [3][7] - The market is currently focused on supply dynamics, pre-holiday downstream stocking demand, and operational conditions, with expectations of increased cotton production and imports [3][7] - Textile companies have been replenishing raw material inventories, but the motivation for significant restocking before the holiday is weak, with available days of textile raw material inventory at approximately 32 days [3][7] - As the Spring Festival approaches, operational rates are expected to gradually decline, and the current fundamentals may not support a sustained rise in cotton prices, although future policy developments remain promising [3][7]

Sugar Market - The current spot price range for sugar from Guangxi Sugar Group is 5320 to 5380 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 10 CNY/ton for some quotes [2] - Yunnan Sugar Group's price is between 5190 to 5230 CNY/ton, also down by 10 CNY/ton for certain quotes [2] - Raw sugar prices are under pressure due to declining energy prices and a significant increase in India's production year-on-year, necessitating attention to production progress in Thailand and India [2] - The domestic market is experiencing moderate transactions, with expectations for future import regulation, providing some support for prices; however, there is significant pressure above the 5300 CNY/ton level, leading to a forecast of weak fluctuations as holidays approach [2] Cotton Market - On Thursday, ICE cotton prices fell by 0.57%, closing at 64.62 cents/pound, while Zhengzhou cotton futures dropped by 0.61% to 14675 CNY/ton, with a decrease in open interest by 6537 contracts to 835800 contracts [8] - The cotton price index for 3128B is 15550 CNY/ton, down by 65 CNY/ton from the previous day [8] - Internationally, geopolitical tensions are affecting the market, and the likelihood of no interest rate cuts in January in the U.S. is contributing to a strong dollar index above 99 [8] - The USDA's January report has reduced the expected U.S. cotton production for 2025/26, providing some support for cotton prices [8] - In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton has shown reduced volatility, primarily fluctuating within a narrow range, while the USDA report has increased the expected production and consumption of cotton in China for 2025/26, aligning with market expectations [8] - Recent data indicates a year-on-year decline in clothing exports, and there are significant differences in raw material inventory levels among textile enterprises, highlighting the need to monitor replenishment actions before the holiday [8] - Overall, short-term fluctuations in Zhengzhou cotton prices may show some divergence, but there are positive expectations from policy developments in the medium to long term, suggesting potential upward movement in cotton prices [8]

Sugar Market - As of January 7, 2025/26 crushing season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushed reached 16.9782 million tons, a decrease of 5.765 million tons or 25.35% compared to the same period last year [3][6] - Sugar content in sugarcane was 11.54%, down 0.08% from 11.62% last year; sugar extraction rate was 9.017%, a decrease of 0.209% from 9.226% last year [3][6] - Sugar production amounted to 1.5309 million tons, down 567,300 tons or 27.03% from 2.0982 million tons last year [3][6] - Current spot prices for sugar in Guangxi range from 5,320 to 5,380 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 10 CNY/ton for some; Yunnan's prices remain stable at 5,140 to 5,230 CNY/ton [3][6] - Domestic sugar prices have been supported by macroeconomic sentiment and a rebound in commodity prices, but there is significant pressure from hedging positions, leading to expectations of continued price fluctuations [3][6] Cotton Market - On Thursday, ICE cotton fell by 0.69%, closing at 64.4 cents per pound; Zheng cotton's main contract decreased by 1.5%, closing at 14,740 CNY/ton [7] - The main contract's open interest decreased by 62,575 contracts to 852,900 contracts; the cotton 3128B spot price index was 15,610 CNY/ton, down 70 CNY/ton from the previous day [7] - The international market is experiencing significant macro disturbances, with limited marginal changes in fundamentals, leading to a predominantly volatile market [7] - Domestic market sentiment has cooled slightly, with recent strong expectations driving prices; however, increased procurement costs at high price levels may impact future operations [7] - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations in the short term, while medium to long-term policies may provide positive outlooks for cotton prices [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: January 7, 2026 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On Monday, the New York raw sugar futures rebounded with the March contract up 0.82% to 14.72 cents/pound. The London ICE white sugar futures March contract rose 0.6% to $421.10/ton. The SR605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5259 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.50%, with an increase of 4843 positions. The SR609 contract closed at 5275 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.48%, with an increase of 1342 positions. The US sugar 03 contract closed at 14.72 cents/pound, up 0.12 cents or 0.82%, with an increase of 194 positions. The US sugar 05 contract closed at 14.37 cents/pound, up 0.09 cents or 0.63%, with a decrease of 2090 positions [7]. - Domestic Sugar Market: The new domestic sugar price increased. The price in Nanning was 5355 yuan/ton, and in Kunming was 5200 yuan/ton. In December, Guangxi's sugar production decreased by 800,000 tons year-on-year, mainly due to lower sugar content in sugarcane in Chongzuo. Yunnan's sugar production increased by 60,000 tons. The decline in production in Guangxi and Guangdong is conducive to the rebound of sugar prices. With the pre - Spring Festival procurement peak, sugar prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend before the Spring Festival [8]. Industry News - Guangxi: As of December 31, 2025, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 73 sugar mills in Guangxi had all started crushing, 1 less than the previous year. The cumulative sugarcane crushing was 16.2303 million tons, a decrease of 5.2515 million tons year - on - year; the output of mixed sugar was 1.9419 million tons, a decrease of 0.8095 million tons; the mixed sugar production rate was 11.96%, a decrease of 0.85 percentage points; the cumulative sugar sales were 0.8848 million tons, a decrease of 0.7474 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 45.56%, a decrease of 13.76 percentage points. In December, the monthly sugar production was 1.808 million tons, a decrease of 0.431 million tons; the monthly sugar sales were 0.7954 million tons, a decrease of 0.5518 million tons; the cumulative industrial inventory was 1.0571 million tons, a decrease of 0.0621 million tons [9]. - Pakistan: The Federal Minister for National Food Security of Pakistan, Rana Tanveer Hussain, said that the sugar price is expected to drop to 110 rupees/kg (about 2.75 yuan/kg) in the near future. The government plans to withdraw from the sugar industry [9]. - India: As of December 31, 2025, the sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season in India reached 11.897 million tons, nearly 25% more than the same period last year. The number of sugar mills in operation was 504, 12 more than the same period last year [9]. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price trend, the basis of the 2605 contract, the SR5 - 9 spread, the import profit of Brazilian raw sugar, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the exchange rate of the Brazilian real, and the trading and position of the top 20 seats of the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [11][14][20][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic market, the prices of processed sugar and beet sugar are relatively stable. With the arrival of new - season sugar from Guangxi in sales areas, the competition among the three sugar sources under poor market transactions has a negative impact on prices [2]. - As of the current incomplete statistics, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, 5 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 537,500 tons, 29,000 tons less than the same period last year. 29 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, 10 more than the same period last year, and more than half of the sugar mills have started production. Overall, as the new - season sugar - making reaches its peak, supply continues to increase, spot prices weaken, and there is a lack of positive drivers. It is expected that sugar prices will fluctuate at a low level in the future [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,102 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 518,010 lots, an increase of 30,075 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 611, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 78,980 lots, an increase of 2,578 lots [2]. - The total effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar is 1,490, unchanged; the estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,082 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,172 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan [2]. - The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the spot price of sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1.48 million hectares, an increase of 60,000 hectares; the planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840,330 hectares, an increase of 5,240 hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 billion tons, an increase of 549,000 tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 894,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons [2]. - The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 44,800 tons, a decrease of 237,400 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.302 billion tons, a decrease of 903,000 tons [2]. - The monthly sugar import volume is 750,000 tons, an increase of 200,000 tons; the cumulative sugar import volume is 3.9 billion tons, an increase of 740,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 883,000 tons, an increase of 343,900 tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1.0962 billion tons, a decrease of 495,500 tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.68%, an increase of 0.58 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 8.67%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.9%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.86%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as of November 25, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 194,604 lots, an increase of 6,204 lots from the previous week. The long position was 148,893 lots, a decrease of 1,574 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 343,497 lots, an increase of 4,630 lots from the previous week [2]. - The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell for the third consecutive day on Wednesday. The decline of the Brazilian real encouraged Brazilian sugar producers to increase exports. The contract closed down 0.06 cents, or 0.40%, at 14.76 cents per pound [2].