白糖产业日报 2026-02-26 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:白糖(日,元/吨) | 5285 | 37 主力合约持仓量:白糖(日,手) | 462071 | 15849 -7487 | | | 仓单数量:白糖(日,张) | 14461 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:白糖(日,手) | -83994 | | | | 有效仓单预报:白糖:小计(日,张) 进口加工估算价(配额内):巴西糖(日,元/ | 717 | 0 进口加工估算价(配额内):泰国糖(日,元/ | | | | 现货市场 | | 4029 | 0 | 3980 5040 | 0 1 | | | 吨) 进口巴糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | 吨) 进口泰糖估算价(配额外,50%关税)(日,元 | | | | | | 5103 | 0 | | | | | /吨) 云南昆明白糖现货价格(日,元/吨) | 5190 | 20 广西南宁白糖现货价格(日,元/吨) /吨) ...

在新糖与进口糖双重供给压力下，预计糖价偏弱运行 2026 年 1 月 28 日 研究员：张伟 邮箱：xnqh_zwei@swfutures.com 期货从业证书号：F3011397 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0012289 1 一、巴西基本情况 巴西是全球最大的产糖国和糖出口国。2024/25 榨季巴西中南部累计产糖 4017 万吨，同比减少 226 万吨，制糖比为 48.14%。巴 2025 年 12 月下半月， 巴西中南部累计甘蔗入榨量 6 亿吨，同比-2.28%；累计产糖量 4022 万吨，同 比+0.86%。 预计本榨季巴西中南部糖产量在 4050-4100 万吨左右。截止 2025 年 12 月 底，巴西糖库存为 896 万吨，同比增加 62 万吨，库存水平处于中性。 Stonex（2025 年 11 月）预计 2026/27 榨季巴西中南部糖产量在 4150 万吨 左右。其他机构的预估也在这区间。新榨季将从 4 月份开始生产，未来糖最终 产量还取决于制糖比。 （数据来源：同花顺 Ifind） 巴西乙醇需求仍然持续强劲，乙醇价格继续上行，目前（1 月下旬）制糖价 达到 17.35 美分附近,在当前原糖价 ...

| 第一章综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 第二章核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章周度数据追踪 | 9 | GALAXYFUTURES 1 白糖周报：印度糖产增泰国减 国际糖底部震荡 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 目录 综合分析与交易策略 【逻辑分析】 国际方面，巴西甘蔗预计将逐渐进入收榨阶段，巴西糖供应压力将逐渐缓解，市场近期关注点转移到北半球，目前北半球糖产大部分也处于增产周期。 目前印度双周产量较高，增产可能会超预期，给国际糖价以悲观影响。但是由于糖价已经跌至低位且目前大宗商品偏强，因此预计美糖价格短期底部 震荡走势。 国内市场，目前国内白糖正处于压榨高峰期，且本榨季国内白糖产量大概率将增加且增幅不小，因此供应端有一定压力。此外前两天海关公布的数据 显示，2025年我国累计进口食糖491.88万吨，同比增加56.22万吨，2025年食糖进口量超预期，大量进口糖也给国内市场以压力。供应端压力明显， 短期内预计郑糖仍将维持下跌趋势。但是考虑目前糖价已经偏低，且盘面价格已经跌破国内大部分榨糖企业的成本线，而国际糖下方的支撑作用 ...

Sugar Industry - The average sugarcane yield in Brazil's central-south region for December 2025 is projected to be 73.4 tons per hectare, an increase of 26.6% compared to 58 tons per hectare in the same period of 2024 [2] - The cumulative yield for the 2025/26 crushing season (April to December) is expected to be 74.7 tons per hectare, down 4.6% from 78.3 tons per hectare in the previous season [2] - Spot prices for sugar in Guangxi range from 5270 to 5360 yuan per ton, down by 10 to 20 yuan per ton; in Yunnan, prices are between 5120 and 5160 yuan per ton, down by 20 to 30 yuan per ton [2][6] - The raw sugar market continues to show a fluctuating pattern, with domestic spot prices declining and transaction volumes decreasing, leading to a sustained accumulation of inventory [2][6] Cotton Industry - ICE cotton prices fell by 0.06% to 64.3 cents per pound, while Zheng cotton's main contract rose by 0.17% to 14535 yuan per ton, with a decrease in open interest by 908 contracts to 787200 contracts [3][7] - The cotton 3128B spot price index is at 15445 yuan per ton, an increase of 55 yuan per ton from the previous day [3][7] - The market is currently focused on supply dynamics, pre-holiday downstream stocking demand, and operational conditions, with expectations of increased cotton production and imports [3][7] - Textile companies have been replenishing raw material inventories, but the motivation for significant restocking before the holiday is weak, with available days of textile raw material inventory at approximately 32 days [3][7] - As the Spring Festival approaches, operational rates are expected to gradually decline, and the current fundamentals may not support a sustained rise in cotton prices, although future policy developments remain promising [3][7]

Sugar Market - The current spot price range for sugar from Guangxi Sugar Group is 5320 to 5380 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 10 CNY/ton for some quotes [2] - Yunnan Sugar Group's price is between 5190 to 5230 CNY/ton, also down by 10 CNY/ton for certain quotes [2] - Raw sugar prices are under pressure due to declining energy prices and a significant increase in India's production year-on-year, necessitating attention to production progress in Thailand and India [2] - The domestic market is experiencing moderate transactions, with expectations for future import regulation, providing some support for prices; however, there is significant pressure above the 5300 CNY/ton level, leading to a forecast of weak fluctuations as holidays approach [2] Cotton Market - On Thursday, ICE cotton prices fell by 0.57%, closing at 64.62 cents/pound, while Zhengzhou cotton futures dropped by 0.61% to 14675 CNY/ton, with a decrease in open interest by 6537 contracts to 835800 contracts [8] - The cotton price index for 3128B is 15550 CNY/ton, down by 65 CNY/ton from the previous day [8] - Internationally, geopolitical tensions are affecting the market, and the likelihood of no interest rate cuts in January in the U.S. is contributing to a strong dollar index above 99 [8] - The USDA's January report has reduced the expected U.S. cotton production for 2025/26, providing some support for cotton prices [8] - In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton has shown reduced volatility, primarily fluctuating within a narrow range, while the USDA report has increased the expected production and consumption of cotton in China for 2025/26, aligning with market expectations [8] - Recent data indicates a year-on-year decline in clothing exports, and there are significant differences in raw material inventory levels among textile enterprises, highlighting the need to monitor replenishment actions before the holiday [8] - Overall, short-term fluctuations in Zhengzhou cotton prices may show some divergence, but there are positive expectations from policy developments in the medium to long term, suggesting potential upward movement in cotton prices [8]

Sugar Market - As of January 7, 2025/26 crushing season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushed reached 16.9782 million tons, a decrease of 5.765 million tons or 25.35% compared to the same period last year [3][6] - Sugar content in sugarcane was 11.54%, down 0.08% from 11.62% last year; sugar extraction rate was 9.017%, a decrease of 0.209% from 9.226% last year [3][6] - Sugar production amounted to 1.5309 million tons, down 567,300 tons or 27.03% from 2.0982 million tons last year [3][6] - Current spot prices for sugar in Guangxi range from 5,320 to 5,380 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 10 CNY/ton for some; Yunnan's prices remain stable at 5,140 to 5,230 CNY/ton [3][6] - Domestic sugar prices have been supported by macroeconomic sentiment and a rebound in commodity prices, but there is significant pressure from hedging positions, leading to expectations of continued price fluctuations [3][6] Cotton Market - On Thursday, ICE cotton fell by 0.69%, closing at 64.4 cents per pound; Zheng cotton's main contract decreased by 1.5%, closing at 14,740 CNY/ton [7] - The main contract's open interest decreased by 62,575 contracts to 852,900 contracts; the cotton 3128B spot price index was 15,610 CNY/ton, down 70 CNY/ton from the previous day [7] - The international market is experiencing significant macro disturbances, with limited marginal changes in fundamentals, leading to a predominantly volatile market [7] - Domestic market sentiment has cooled slightly, with recent strong expectations driving prices; however, increased procurement costs at high price levels may impact future operations [7] - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations in the short term, while medium to long-term policies may provide positive outlooks for cotton prices [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: January 7, 2026 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On Monday, the New York raw sugar futures rebounded with the March contract up 0.82% to 14.72 cents/pound. The London ICE white sugar futures March contract rose 0.6% to $421.10/ton. The SR605 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5259 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan or 0.50%, with an increase of 4843 positions. The SR609 contract closed at 5275 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.48%, with an increase of 1342 positions. The US sugar 03 contract closed at 14.72 cents/pound, up 0.12 cents or 0.82%, with an increase of 194 positions. The US sugar 05 contract closed at 14.37 cents/pound, up 0.09 cents or 0.63%, with a decrease of 2090 positions [7]. - Domestic Sugar Market: The new domestic sugar price increased. The price in Nanning was 5355 yuan/ton, and in Kunming was 5200 yuan/ton. In December, Guangxi's sugar production decreased by 800,000 tons year-on-year, mainly due to lower sugar content in sugarcane in Chongzuo. Yunnan's sugar production increased by 60,000 tons. The decline in production in Guangxi and Guangdong is conducive to the rebound of sugar prices. With the pre - Spring Festival procurement peak, sugar prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend before the Spring Festival [8]. Industry News - Guangxi: As of December 31, 2025, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 73 sugar mills in Guangxi had all started crushing, 1 less than the previous year. The cumulative sugarcane crushing was 16.2303 million tons, a decrease of 5.2515 million tons year - on - year; the output of mixed sugar was 1.9419 million tons, a decrease of 0.8095 million tons; the mixed sugar production rate was 11.96%, a decrease of 0.85 percentage points; the cumulative sugar sales were 0.8848 million tons, a decrease of 0.7474 million tons; the sales - to - production ratio was 45.56%, a decrease of 13.76 percentage points. In December, the monthly sugar production was 1.808 million tons, a decrease of 0.431 million tons; the monthly sugar sales were 0.7954 million tons, a decrease of 0.5518 million tons; the cumulative industrial inventory was 1.0571 million tons, a decrease of 0.0621 million tons [9]. - Pakistan: The Federal Minister for National Food Security of Pakistan, Rana Tanveer Hussain, said that the sugar price is expected to drop to 110 rupees/kg (about 2.75 yuan/kg) in the near future. The government plans to withdraw from the sugar industry [9]. - India: As of December 31, 2025, the sugar production in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season in India reached 11.897 million tons, nearly 25% more than the same period last year. The number of sugar mills in operation was 504, 12 more than the same period last year [9]. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price trend, the basis of the 2605 contract, the SR5 - 9 spread, the import profit of Brazilian raw sugar, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the exchange rate of the Brazilian real, and the trading and position of the top 20 seats of the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [11][14][20][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic market, the prices of processed sugar and beet sugar are relatively stable. With the arrival of new - season sugar from Guangxi in sales areas, the competition among the three sugar sources under poor market transactions has a negative impact on prices [2]. - As of the current incomplete statistics, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, 5 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 537,500 tons, 29,000 tons less than the same period last year. 29 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, 10 more than the same period last year, and more than half of the sugar mills have started production. Overall, as the new - season sugar - making reaches its peak, supply continues to increase, spot prices weaken, and there is a lack of positive drivers. It is expected that sugar prices will fluctuate at a low level in the future [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,102 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 518,010 lots, an increase of 30,075 lots [2]. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 611, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 78,980 lots, an increase of 2,578 lots [2]. - The total effective warehouse receipt forecast for sugar is 1,490, unchanged; the estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,082 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,172 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17 yuan [2]. - The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan; the spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the spot price of sugar in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1.48 million hectares, an increase of 60,000 hectares; the planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840,330 hectares, an increase of 5,240 hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 11.1621 billion tons, an increase of 549,000 tons; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 894,000 tons, a decrease of 21,000 tons [2]. - The cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 44,800 tons, a decrease of 237,400 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.302 billion tons, a decrease of 903,000 tons [2]. - The monthly sugar import volume is 750,000 tons, an increase of 200,000 tons; the cumulative sugar import volume is 3.9 billion tons, an increase of 740,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 883,000 tons, an increase of 343,900 tons; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1.0962 billion tons, a decrease of 495,500 tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.68%, an increase of 0.58 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 8.67%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points [2]. - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.9%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.86%, an increase of 0.02 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - According to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, as of November 25, 2025, the non - commercial net short position in raw sugar futures was 194,604 lots, an increase of 6,204 lots from the previous week. The long position was 148,893 lots, a decrease of 1,574 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 343,497 lots, an increase of 4,630 lots from the previous week [2]. - The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell for the third consecutive day on Wednesday. The decline of the Brazilian real encouraged Brazilian sugar producers to increase exports. The contract closed down 0.06 cents, or 0.40%, at 14.76 cents per pound [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - In the domestic market, currently, the quotes of processed sugar and beet sugar are relatively stable. With the arrival of new sugar from Guangxi in the sales areas and poor market transactions, the competition among the three sugar sources affects prices negatively. As of now, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, 5 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 537,500 tons, 29,000 tons less than last year. In Yunnan, 29 sugar mills have started production, 10 more than last year, and over half of the sugar mills have started operation. Overall, the new sugar - making season is approaching its peak, supply is increasing, spot prices are weakening, and there is a lack of bullish drivers. It is expected that the sugar price will fluctuate at a low level in the future [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,139 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 487,935 lots, up 6,509 lots; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 611, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 81,558 lots, down 2,553 lots; the total valid warehouse receipt forecast is 1,490, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,094 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,188 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; the estimated import - processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,116 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,217 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan. The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5,245 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; in Guangxi Nanning, it is 5,320 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Guangxi Liuzhou, it is 5,390 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 tons, up 5.49 tons; the planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, up 8.94 thousand hectares; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 330.2 tons, down 90.3 tons; the cumulative production of cane sugar in Yunnan is 4.48 tons, down 237.4 tons [2] Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,146 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 52 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,124 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; outside the quota (50% tariff), it is 23 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan. The monthly sugar import volume is 75 tons, up 20 tons; the cumulative import volume is 390 tons, up 74 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 88.3 tons, up 34.39 tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1,096.2 tons, down 495.5 tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.1%, down 0.46%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 8.12%, down 0.48%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 6.83%, up 1.29%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.84%, up 0.54% [2] Industry News - According to the Brazilian Sugarcane Industry Association Unica, in the second half of November 2025, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 15.993 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year decrease of 21.08%, and produced 724,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 32.94%. As of December 1, in the 25/26 sugar - making season (April 2025 - March 2026), the central - southern region of Brazil had cumulatively crushed 592 million tons of sugar - cane, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92%, and cumulatively produced 39.904 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.13%, with a cumulative sugar - making ratio of 51.12%, higher than 48% in the same period last year. ICE raw sugar futures closed down on Tuesday due to favorable weather in the Brazilian production area. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on ICE closed down 0.13 cents or 0.90% at 14.82 cents per pound [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The new sugar - making season is approaching its peak in the domestic market, with continuous increase in supply, weakening spot prices, and lack of bullish drivers. It is expected that the sugar price will fluctuate at a low level in the future [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5133 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 481,426 lots, up 51,928 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 611, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 79,005 lots, down 10,879 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1490, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The estimated import - processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4127 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4149 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan. The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5231 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 5260 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan. The spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5260 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; in Guangxi Nanning is 5340 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Guangxi Liuzhou is 5400 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, up 5.24 thousand hectares. The cumulative sugar production in the country is 1116.21 million tons, up 4.48 million tons; the cumulative sales of sugar in Guangxi is 237.4 million tons, down 593.35 million tons. The total sugar exports from Brazil is 330.2 million tons, down 90.3 million tons [2] Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1170 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 1148 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan. The price difference outside the quota (50% tariff) for Brazilian sugar is 66 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan; for Thai sugar is 37 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan. The monthly sugar import volume is 75 million tons, up 20 million tons; the cumulative import volume is 390 million tons, up 74 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar is 88.3 million tons, up 34.39 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks is 1096.2 million tons, down 495.5 million tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.56%, up 0.6%; that of at - the - money put options is 8.6%, up 0.61%. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.53%, unchanged; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.3%, unchanged [2] Industry News - Brazil exported 1.6008 billion tons of sugar in the first two weeks of December, with a daily average of 160 thousand tons, a 19% increase compared to the daily average of December last year. The total export volume in December last year was 2.8337 billion tons. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on ICE fell 0.15 cents or 1.0% to settle at 14.95 cents per pound due to the prospect of increased supply [2] Tip for Attention - As of now, 66 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production in the 25/26 sugar - making season, 5 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 537.5 thousand tons, 29 thousand tons less than last year. 29 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, 10 more than last year, and more than half of the sugar mills have started production [2]