Report Summary 1. Market Performance on February 2, 2026 - A-shares tumbled: The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2.48% to 4015.75, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.69% to 13824.35, and the ChiNext Index declined 2.46% to 3264.11. The turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 2606.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 255.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Indexes and commodities: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4605.98, down 100.36. The coke weighted index closed at 1683.5, down 58.6, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 1151.8 yuan, down 31.7 [2][3]. 2. Futures Market Analysis a. Coking Coal and Coke - Coke: Coke enterprises'开工 declined, and inventory increased significantly due to winter storage. The demand side saw an increase in blast furnace 开工 but a decrease in molten iron production. The first round of coke price increases was implemented. Supply contracted, and pre - holiday winter storage was nearing its end [4]. - Coking coal: The 开工 of coal washing plants and mines decreased, and Mongolian coal customs clearance volume declined from its high. Total coking coal inventory increased. The demand side, including coke enterprises' load and molten iron production, continued to decline. The first round of coke price increases was implemented. The price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal was reported at 1390 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1305 yuan/ton on the futures market [4]. b. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar on Friday, the drop in crude oil prices, and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated downward on Monday. Green Pool predicted that the global sugar market surplus in 2026/27 would shrink to 156,000 tons from 2.74 million tons in 2025/26, mainly due to a decrease in production [4]. c. Rubber - Affected by the sharp decline in crude oil prices and the stock market crash, the Shanghai rubber futures oscillated sharply downward on Monday. In 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) were 2.669 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. The total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber were 4.422 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [4]. d. Palm Oil - On February 2, affected by macro - funds sentiment, the commodity market dropped significantly, and the palm oil market also declined from its high. The palm oil main contract P2605 closed at 9014, down 2.45% from the previous trading day [5]. e. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures declined slightly on February 2. The strong US dollar weakened US export competitiveness. Brazil's soybean harvest was in its early stage with normal weather. As of January 24, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest rate was 6.6%, higher than 3.2% in the same period last year. Stonex predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach a record - high of 181.6 million tons. Domestically, the soybean meal main contract 2605 closed at 2750 yuan/ton, down 0.61%. Domestic imported soybean supply was abundant, and pre - holiday stocking was nearing its end. The soybean meal futures price lacked upward momentum [5]. f. Live Hogs - On February 2, the live hog main contract LH2603 closed at 11220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Before the Spring Festival, the window for live hog slaughter was narrowing, and the daily slaughter pressure of large - scale pig enterprises increased. The market's price - support mentality weakened, and the supply pressure before the festival increased. The demand side was supported by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase was limited. In the medium - term, the market's supply - exceeding - demand situation was difficult to change [5]. g. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper futures tumbled. The main contract 2603 closed at 98580 yuan/ton. The core reasons included profit - taking by long - position holders, the rebound of the US dollar, warnings of supply surplus, and increased market caution [5]. h. Iron Ore - On February 2, the iron ore 2605 main contract oscillated downward, with a decline of 1.26% to 783 yuan. The supply of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased, while domestic arrivals decreased, and port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron ore price was in an oscillating trend in the short term [5]. i. Asphalt - On February 2, the asphalt 2603 main contract oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 4.87% to 3299 yuan. In February, refinery production decreased slightly, and the market was in the off - season with weak demand. The asphalt price was in an oscillating state in the short term [5]. j. Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14635 yuan/ton at night on February 2. Cotton inventory increased by 36 lots compared with the previous trading day. Textile enterprises purchased on a just - in - time basis [6]. k. Logs - The log 2603 main contract opened at 805, closed at 795, and decreased its positions by 1052 lots. The port's softwood log inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks. The spot price of some logs increased slightly [6]. l. Steel - On February 2, the rb2605 contract closed at 3098 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3261 yuan/ton. Steel demand continued to contract, and the supply - demand pressure before the festival increased. The raw material price decreased, and the inventory of social warehouses increased. Steel prices may have a weak and narrow - range adjustment in the short term [6]. m. Alumina - On February 2, the ao2605 contract closed at 2772 yuan/ton. The cost of bauxite decreased, and inventory accumulated before the Spring Festival. The downstream demand for electrolytic aluminum was weak. The alumina price may maintain an oscillating and weak trend in the short term [6]. n. Shanghai Aluminum - On February 2, the al2603 contract closed at 23035 yuan/ton. The market was cautious about the potential new Fed Chairman. Geopolitical tensions eased, and the non - ferrous metals market continued to decline. The supply was stable, inventory was high, and demand showed only slight improvement [6].