Report Summary Core View - On February 12, 2026, the A-share market showed a differentiated trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index fluctuating and consolidating, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index showed stronger trends. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets increased by 159.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day, reaching 2.16 trillion yuan [1]. - The prices of various futures products also showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply and demand, market expectations, and international market conditions. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On February 12, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05% to close at 4134.02 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.86% to close at 14283.00 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.32% to close at 3328.06 points. The CSI 300 Index fluctuated narrowly, closing at 4719.58, up 5.76 from the previous day [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On February 12, the weighted index of coke showed weak consolidation, closing at 1669.9, down 4.4 from the previous day. The weighted index of coking coal fluctuated weakly, closing at 1132.1 yuan, down 5.3 from the previous day [2][3]. - Coking profit is average, with daily production slightly decreasing and inventory slightly increasing. Traders' purchasing willingness is average. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a low level in the off - season, with average steel profit levels. The daily customs clearance of Mongolian coal is 1179 vehicles. The output of coking coal mines has slightly increased, and the spot auction price is inversely proportional to the futures price, with a slight decline in the成交 price. The total inventory of coking coal has increased significantly, and the winter storage demand is coming to an end [4]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the expectation of global supply surplus, the US sugar continued to decline on Wednesday. The Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract fluctuated downward on Thursday due to the decline of US sugar, the reduction of spot prices, and the approaching long - holiday, which led to long - position closing. As of February 10, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 57.5996 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.67%; the sugar content was 12.45%, a year - on - year increase of 0.15%; the sugar production rate was 10.66%, a year - on - year increase of 0.171%; the sugar production was 6.1404 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.17% [4]. Rubber - According to the latest data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in January, automobile sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. Affected by this and the holiday effect, the Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated slightly lower on Thursday. In January, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively, with production increasing by 0.01% year - on - year and sales decreasing by 3.2% year - on - year. According to the Passenger Car Association, the retail sales of the national passenger car market in January were 1.544 million, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9% [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on February 12, the CBOT soybean futures price closed higher. The market expected the improvement of the trade prospects, which promoted the demand for US soybeans and boosted the price. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach a record high, and the harvesting progress is accelerating. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to be 11.71 million tons in February. The US Department of Agriculture maintained Argentina's soybean production at 48.5 million tons. The rainfall in Argentina's main soybean - producing areas this week is expected to relieve the drought. In the domestic market, on February 12, the main contract of soybean meal M2605 closed at 2790 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. Before the festival, the soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained high, the output of soybean meal increased, and the inventory continued to rise. The procurement of imported soybeans for March shipments is basically completed, and the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in April and May will increase significantly. The pre - festival demand boost effect decreases, and the expectation of supply relaxation is postponed [5]. Live Pigs - On February 12, the main contract of live pigs LH2605 closed at 11540 yuan/ton, down 0.13% from the previous trading day. On the supply side, as the pre - festival slaughter window narrows, the price - holding mentality of the breeding end has loosened, and the incremental slaughter operations of group pig enterprises and individual pig farms have increased. The supply of suitable - weight standard pigs in February is still at a high level, and there is an excess pressure on the suitable - weight pig sources. On the demand side, as the Spring Festival approaches, the phenomenon of residents' stocking increases, which provides phased support for the pig price, but the overall demand boost is limited. In the medium term, the inventory of breeding sows and piglet replenishment are both at high levels, and the subsequent slaughter volume is guaranteed [5]. Palm Oil - On February 12, before the festival, funds in palm oil futures continued to reduce positions to avoid risks, and the futures price fluctuated downward. The main contract P2605 closed with a negative K - line. The highest price was 8932, the lowest price was 8782, and the closing price was 8782, down 1.39% from the previous trading day. According to the data released by the shipping survey agency SGS, the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from February 1 - 10 is expected to be 273,472 tons, a decrease of 16.1% compared with the same period last month. From February 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit area decreased by 9.16% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.3% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 7.58% month - on - month [5]. Shanghai Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper (CU2603) closed at 102,330 yuan/ton, with an intraday high of 103,730, a low of 101,840, a trading volume of 114,000 lots, and a position of 147,600 lots. The core driving factors are: macro - level, the US dollar is weak, there is an expectation of domestic stable growth, and funds prefer industrial metals; supply - side, the increment of copper mines is limited, the processing fee is at a low level, and the cost support is strong; spot - market, the price of Yangtze River No. 1 copper is 102,180 yuan/ton (+750), and the price of SMM No. 1 copper is 102,040 yuan/ton (+725), and the linkage between futures and spot is strengthening [5]. Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,850 yuan/ton. The cotton inventory increased by 143 lots compared with the previous trading day. Textile enterprises mainly purchase raw materials for rigid demand, the enterprise operating rate remains at a high level, and the inventory of gauze has decreased significantly [5]. Iron Ore - On February 12, the main contract of iron ore 2605 fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.2% and a closing price of 762 yuan. The shipment of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased compared with the previous period, the domestic arrival volume also decreased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, the steel mill's replenishment demand gradually ended, and the growth space of molten iron is limited. The iron ore price is in a fluctuating trend in the short term [5]. Asphalt - On February 12, the main contract of asphalt 2604 fluctuated and closed down, with a decline of 0.24% and a closing price of 3343 yuan. The asphalt supply remains at a low level, the refinery inventory pressure is not large, the terminal demand continues to shrink, the pre - festival spot trading is清淡, and the asphalt price shows a fluctuating trend in the short term [6]. Logs - The main contract of logs 2603 opened at 776 on Thursday, with a minimum of 776, a maximum of 788, and a closing price of 779.5, with a daily reduction of 830 lots. On the last trading day before the festival, attention should be paid to the support from the spot end and the margin - increasing market before the festival. On February 12, the spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day. Although the overseas market has raised prices, the domestic spot market is stable before the festival, which needs to be verified after the festival. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment on prices [6]. Steel - On February 12, rb2605 closed at 3050 yuan/ton, and hc2605 closed at 3218 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream real estate, infrastructure, and construction sites are on full - scale holiday, the core demand for rebar enters a seasonal vacuum period, and rigid - demand procurement is almost stagnant. Traders and downstream enterprises have basically completed their pre - festival stocking, and their willingness to store for the winter is extremely low, with only a small amount of rigid - demand replenishment, which is difficult to support the price increase. The demand side has become the core factor suppressing the futures market [6]. Alumina - On February 12, ao2605 closed at 2808 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina market is in a delicate balance state, with multiple contradictions intertwined on both the supply and demand sides. On the one hand, the industry inventory pressure continues to be high, and the total inventory of in - factory, in - transit, and downstream raw materials has climbed to the highest level in the same period in the past five years, highlighting the hidden danger of supply surplus. On the other hand, the industry actively adjusts production capacity, the launch of new production capacity is postponed, and positive signals appear on the demand side, which support the market to maintain a stalemate pattern in the short term, and the core contradiction in the market is gradually changing [6]. Shanghai Aluminum - On February 12, al2603 closed at 23,610 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price will show a weak - fluctuating pattern before the festival to digest the inventory pressure, but the medium - and long - term bottom support is solid, and the deep - decline space is limited. In the short term, the seasonal inventory - accumulation process is not over, and the high inventory will continue to suppress the price. In the long term, the strategic position of electrolytic aluminum in the green energy transformation is stable, and the new - energy vehicle, photovoltaic, and grid - investment fields will continue to provide structural growth demand. Overall, after the pre - festival sentiment and weak - reality correction, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the medium - and long - term under the pattern of tight supply - demand balance [6].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on February 2, 2026 - A-shares tumbled: The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 2.48% to 4015.75, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.69% to 13824.35, and the ChiNext Index declined 2.46% to 3264.11. The turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges was 2606.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 255.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Indexes and commodities: The CSI 300 Index closed at 4605.98, down 100.36. The coke weighted index closed at 1683.5, down 58.6, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 1151.8 yuan, down 31.7 [2][3]. 2. Futures Market Analysis a. Coking Coal and Coke - Coke: Coke enterprises'开工 declined, and inventory increased significantly due to winter storage. The demand side saw an increase in blast furnace 开工 but a decrease in molten iron production. The first round of coke price increases was implemented. Supply contracted, and pre - holiday winter storage was nearing its end [4]. - Coking coal: The 开工 of coal washing plants and mines decreased, and Mongolian coal customs clearance volume declined from its high. Total coking coal inventory increased. The demand side, including coke enterprises' load and molten iron production, continued to decline. The first round of coke price increases was implemented. The price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 clean coal was reported at 1390 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1305 yuan/ton on the futures market [4]. b. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by factors such as the decline of US sugar on Friday, the drop in crude oil prices, and the reduction of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou sugar 2605 contract oscillated downward on Monday. Green Pool predicted that the global sugar market surplus in 2026/27 would shrink to 156,000 tons from 2.74 million tons in 2025/26, mainly due to a decrease in production [4]. c. Rubber - Affected by the sharp decline in crude oil prices and the stock market crash, the Shanghai rubber futures oscillated sharply downward on Monday. In 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) were 2.669 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3%. The total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber were 4.422 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [4]. d. Palm Oil - On February 2, affected by macro - funds sentiment, the commodity market dropped significantly, and the palm oil market also declined from its high. The palm oil main contract P2605 closed at 9014, down 2.45% from the previous trading day [5]. e. Soybean Meal - Internationally, CBOT soybean futures declined slightly on February 2. The strong US dollar weakened US export competitiveness. Brazil's soybean harvest was in its early stage with normal weather. As of January 24, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest rate was 6.6%, higher than 3.2% in the same period last year. Stonex predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach a record - high of 181.6 million tons. Domestically, the soybean meal main contract 2605 closed at 2750 yuan/ton, down 0.61%. Domestic imported soybean supply was abundant, and pre - holiday stocking was nearing its end. The soybean meal futures price lacked upward momentum [5]. f. Live Hogs - On February 2, the live hog main contract LH2603 closed at 11220 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. Before the Spring Festival, the window for live hog slaughter was narrowing, and the daily slaughter pressure of large - scale pig enterprises increased. The market's price - support mentality weakened, and the supply pressure before the festival increased. The demand side was supported by pre - holiday stocking, but the increase was limited. In the medium - term, the market's supply - exceeding - demand situation was difficult to change [5]. g. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper futures tumbled. The main contract 2603 closed at 98580 yuan/ton. The core reasons included profit - taking by long - position holders, the rebound of the US dollar, warnings of supply surplus, and increased market caution [5]. h. Iron Ore - On February 2, the iron ore 2605 main contract oscillated downward, with a decline of 1.26% to 783 yuan. The supply of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased, while domestic arrivals decreased, and port inventory continued to accumulate. The iron ore price was in an oscillating trend in the short term [5]. i. Asphalt - On February 2, the asphalt 2603 main contract oscillated and closed down, with a decline of 4.87% to 3299 yuan. In February, refinery production decreased slightly, and the market was in the off - season with weak demand. The asphalt price was in an oscillating state in the short term [5]. j. Cotton - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14635 yuan/ton at night on February 2. Cotton inventory increased by 36 lots compared with the previous trading day. Textile enterprises purchased on a just - in - time basis [6]. k. Logs - The log 2603 main contract opened at 805, closed at 795, and decreased its positions by 1052 lots. The port's softwood log inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks. The spot price of some logs increased slightly [6]. l. Steel - On February 2, the rb2605 contract closed at 3098 yuan/ton, and the hc2605 contract closed at 3261 yuan/ton. Steel demand continued to contract, and the supply - demand pressure before the festival increased. The raw material price decreased, and the inventory of social warehouses increased. Steel prices may have a weak and narrow - range adjustment in the short term [6]. m. Alumina - On February 2, the ao2605 contract closed at 2772 yuan/ton. The cost of bauxite decreased, and inventory accumulated before the Spring Festival. The downstream demand for electrolytic aluminum was weak. The alumina price may maintain an oscillating and weak trend in the short term [6]. n. Shanghai Aluminum - On February 2, the al2603 contract closed at 23035 yuan/ton. The market was cautious about the potential new Fed Chairman. Geopolitical tensions eased, and the non - ferrous metals market continued to decline. The supply was stable, inventory was high, and demand showed only slight improvement [6].