投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 3 月 3 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 核心逻辑：豆类市场整体呈现高位回调、内外承压的格局。中东地缘冲突虽引发大宗商品普涨，但对农产 品影响有限。受巴西丰产预期及中国需求不确定性拖累，美豆自 20 个月高位小幅回落，豆类期价跟随走 低。国内市场基本面疲软，油厂开工逐步恢复，豆粕库存高企，而下游饲料企业物理库存充足，采购意愿 低迷，导致现货价格稳中偏弱，进一步削弱市场看涨情绪。后市关注点在于南美大豆产区的天气表现，这 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一 ...

专题报告 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 2.28 美伊冲击升级对主要大宗商品的 影响 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 2月28日，美国与以色列联合对伊朗发动大规模军事打击， 伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊遇袭身亡，伊朗称将开启最猛烈进 攻，地缘政治格局遭遇数十年来最剧烈冲击。 ⚫ 对于此次事件对大宗商品的影响，我们认为此地缘政策事 件对能化影响较大，对贵金属和有色金属会产生脉冲式的 冲击，后续需重点跟踪美伊冲突演变。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 6 2026 年 3 月 2 日 专题报告 2 月 28 日，美国与以色列联合对伊朗发动大规模军事打击，伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊遇 袭身亡，伊朗称将开启最猛烈进攻，地缘 ...

有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：价格延续震荡 关注宏观预期变化 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 成文时间： 2026 年 3 月 2 日 逻辑：上周，煤焦期 ...

成文日期：2026年2月13日 报告周期:周报 研究员：顾小春（从业资格号：F0269198;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0000164) a成橡胶期货周报 一、行情回顾 本周（2026年 2 月 9 日-2 月 13 日）上海期货交易所丁二烯橡 胶期货主力合约呈现先上涨后回落，周五收于周内低点的走势。该 合约于 2 月 9 日以 12765 元/吨开盘、盘中最高触及 13175 元/吨, 最低下探至 12490 元/吨，截至 2 月 13 日收盘报 12505 元/吨，较 上周五收盘下跌 285 元/吨。周五持仓 14990 手，持续减仓。 二、现货市场情况 1. 产业链价格变动 本周丁二烯现货价格呈现先扬后抑走势，2 月 9 日现货价为 1472.20 美元/吨，随后连续三日上涨,一于２月 11 日达到 1504.74 美元/吨的周内高点、之后小幅回落、2 月 13 日报收 1477.92 美元/ 吨,较周初小幅上涨 0.39%。 苯乙烯作为丁二烯橡胶的主要原料，本周价格波动下行，从 2 月 9 日的 1111.37 美元/吨跌至 2 月 13 日的 1093.95 美元/吨,累计 下跌 1.57%、对丁二烯橡 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - The precious metals sector showed strong performance during the Spring Festival holiday, with COMEX silver futures rising over 11%, leading among major commodities, while COMEX gold futures increased by over 3% [2] - Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran were identified as a key driver for the price fluctuations in precious metals, with the market reacting to developments in negotiations and conflicts [2][3] - The US Supreme Court's ruling on the legality of large-scale tariffs imposed by the Trump administration is seen as a significant event affecting precious metal prices, with potential implications for inflation and market risk preferences [2][3] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil market experienced a strong rebound during the Spring Festival, with Brent crude oil futures rising over 5% and WTI crude oil futures increasing by over 4% [5] - The core pricing of the oil market remains influenced by geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly the developments related to the US-Iran situation [5][6] - The reduction in US crude oil inventories reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) during the holiday period provided additional support for market prices [5] Group 3: Future Price Volatility - Looking ahead, the oil market faces several core issues, including uncertainties regarding OPEC+ production policies and the growth of non-OPEC oil production [6] - Seasonal demand fluctuations are expected as global refineries enter a traditional maintenance period, which may lead to temporary demand contraction [6] - The precious metals market is characterized by high uncertainty, with recommendations for cautious trading strategies, particularly for gold and silver, based on geopolitical tensions and central bank activities [7]

Group 1 - The global commodity market showed a mixed trend during the Spring Festival holiday, with precious metals leading the gains and a strong performance in the energy sector [1] - Significant increases were observed in COMEX silver and gold futures, as well as Brent and WTI crude oil futures, drawing market attention [1] - Factors such as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, US tariff policy decisions, and tight silver inventories supported the price increases of precious metals and crude oil [1] Group 2 - Future market outlook indicates that commodity price volatility is likely to increase due to supply uncertainties, seasonal demand fluctuations, and macroeconomic disturbances [1] - Precious metals and crude oil are expected to remain the core commodities driving market volatility, necessitating close attention to related risks [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - The precious metals sector showed strong performance during the Spring Festival holiday, with COMEX silver futures rising over 11%, leading among major commodities, while COMEX gold futures increased by over 3% [1] - Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran were identified as a core driver for the price fluctuations in precious metals, with initial negotiations leading to a drop in oil prices and subsequent strong recoveries in both oil and precious metals [1][2] - The global silver inventory remains tight, and the upcoming March delivery month for COMEX silver futures is expected to test the market, with a high probability of price increases similar to previous delivery months [2] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil market experienced a strong rebound during the Spring Festival, with Brent crude oil futures rising over 5% and WTI crude oil futures increasing by over 4% [2] - The pricing of international oil remains heavily influenced by geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly the developments surrounding the US-Iran situation [2] - A significant reduction in US crude oil inventories, as reported by the EIA, provided additional support for market prices during the holiday period [2] Group 3: Broader Commodity Market Trends - Other commodities displayed mixed performance, with industrial metals like aluminum, nickel, and copper showing slight increases, while tin experienced a small decline during the Spring Festival [3] - Looking ahead, the oil market faces several core issues, including uncertainties regarding OPEC+ production policies and the growth of non-OPEC oil production, which will impact market balance [3] - Seasonal demand fluctuations are anticipated as global refineries enter a traditional maintenance period, potentially leading to temporary demand contractions [3] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The precious metals market is characterized by high uncertainty, suggesting a cautious approach to trading, with recommendations for gold investors to reduce positions during price spikes and accumulate during sharp declines [4] - For silver, which is more influenced by events and capital flows, strategies may include buying during sharp declines or following effective breakouts [4]

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining has set an ambitious target for lithium carbonate equivalent production, aiming for 270,000 to 320,000 tons by 2028, a nearly 11-fold increase from the less than 30,000 tons expected in 2025, indicating a significant shift towards the new energy sector [2][11]. Group 1: Company Strategy and Performance - The company is diversifying its operations beyond gold and copper, with a focus on lithium production as part of its strategy to become a top global mining group [3][12]. - In 2025, Zijin Mining achieved a net profit of approximately 51 to 52 billion yuan, a nearly 60% year-on-year increase, largely driven by its gold business, which benefited from a surge in international gold prices [3][12]. - The company’s gold production reached 90 tons in 2025, a 23.3% increase from the previous year, with a gross profit margin of 72.8% [3][12]. Group 2: Expansion and Acquisitions - Zijin Mining has accelerated its international expansion, completing eight major gold mine acquisitions since 2020, including recent purchases in Ghana and Kazakhstan, and plans to list its overseas gold assets [4][13]. - The acquisition of African United Gold Company for 28 billion yuan is expected to add approximately 12 tons of gold production in 2025, raising the company's 2026 gold production target to 105 tons, with aspirations to reach 130 to 140 tons by 2028 [4][13]. Group 3: Lithium Production and Cost Management - The company has established a low-cost lithium production base through its "Two Lakes and Two Mines" resource system, including projects in Argentina, Tibet, Hunan, and the Democratic Republic of Congo [5][14]. - The first phase of the 3Q salt lake project has commenced production with a cash operating cost of only 2,914 USD/ton, among the lowest globally [5][14]. - Zijin Mining's comprehensive cost for lithium carbonate remains between 40,000 to 70,000 yuan/ton, providing a buffer against price fluctuations [6][15]. Group 4: Risks and Challenges - As of September 2025, Zijin Mining's long-term debt and bonds exceeded 112.3 billion yuan, with significant capital expenditure pressures from ongoing projects [6][15]. - The company faces geopolitical risks in its overseas projects, particularly in Africa and South America, which could impact resource control [6][15]. - Despite favorable market forecasts for gold, copper, and lithium, the company must navigate potential macroeconomic disruptions that could affect demand and pricing [6][15]. Group 5: Future Outlook - By early 2026, Zijin Mining is positioned as a diversified global resource platform, spanning precious metals, industrial metals, and new energy materials [7][15]. - If the company can effectively manage its production capacity and debt risks over the next three years, it may achieve its long-term vision of becoming a leading international mining group by 2035 [7][15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent fluctuations in the USD/CAD exchange rate, which has shown a recovery trend after a period of decline, influenced by the divergence in monetary policies of the two countries and commodity price volatility [1][2]. - The USD/CAD exchange rate has experienced a "first suppress then rise" pattern since the beginning of the year, with significant movements noted in January and February, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid ongoing fluctuations [1][2]. - The Bank of Canada has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, indicating potential for future rate cuts, while the Federal Reserve has not yet clarified its rate cut timing, creating a disparity that supports the USD and pressures the CAD [2][3]. Group 2 - The global trade environment remains uncertain, contributing to fluctuations in the USD/CAD exchange rate, with market risk aversion occasionally driving funds towards the USD, indirectly supporting its rise against the CAD [2]. - As a commodity currency, the CAD's performance is closely tied to global commodity prices, with potential price recoveries supporting the CAD and limiting the USD/CAD exchange rate's upward movement [3]. - There is a significant divergence in institutional views regarding the medium to long-term outlook for the USD/CAD exchange rate, with some analysts suggesting that a rate cut by the Bank of Canada could lead to further increases in the exchange rate, while others believe that rising expectations for Fed rate cuts may weaken USD support [3].

Group 1: Oil Market - Oil prices have risen due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, overshadowing concerns about oversupply [2][3] - WTI crude oil settled above $64 per barrel, supported by reports of U.S. military readiness in the region and potential actions against Iranian oil tankers [2][4] - U.S. employment data has improved the economic outlook, providing additional support for oil prices, despite a significant increase in U.S. crude oil inventories [3][10] Group 2: Nickel Market - Nickel prices have increased for the fourth consecutive day, reaching a near two-week high, following Indonesia's indication of substantial production cuts this year [5][12] - Indonesia's nickel ore production quota is projected to be between 260 million and 270 million tons, slightly above previous estimates but below the 2025 target of 379 million tons [5][12] Group 3: Silver Market - Silver prices have surged, continuing a trend of high volatility, with expectations of stronger investment demand in the coming year, despite weakening industrial demand [7][15] - On Wednesday, silver prices rose by 6.8%, recovering about one-third from last week's low, with the Silver Institute reporting a sixth consecutive year of supply deficit due to increased investment demand [8][15] - As of the latest data, silver spot prices increased by 4.12% to $84.1421 per ounce, while gold spot prices rose by 1.09% to $5080.29 per ounce [8][15]