● 本报记者 马爽 在美联储主席鲍威尔释放"鸽派"信号后，市场对9月降息预期急剧升温，金融市场迅速作出反应。与此 同时，大宗商品市场也因降息预期而备受关注。 业内人士表示，从美联储利率路径对商品价格的传导逻辑来看，不同商品因其自身属性不同，对利率变 动的反应存在显著差异。在美联储降息预期升温的背景下，那些对美联储政策比较敏感的大宗商品，如 铜、白银、黄金等价格有望上涨。 美联储降息必要性提升 当地时间8月22日，美联储主席鲍威尔在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的年度经济研讨会上发表讲话，暗示 尽管当前通胀上行风险依然存在，但美联储仍可能在未来数月降息。 这一表态被市场解读为货币政策转向宽松的"鸽派"信号，部分业内人士甚至将其视为9月降息的"强心 剂"。当日，金融市场迅速对此作出反应。 除了美国经济数据的影响，市场对美联储独立性的担忧加剧，也进一步助推了降息预期的升温。蒋贤辉 表示，若美联储"影子主席"确立，美国政府可能会以此来达到降低利率的诉求。预计美联储将在今年9 月和12月的议息会议上分别降息25个基点，明年上半年或仍有两次降息，后续降息幅度将更多取决于经 济数据的表现。 不过，也有业内人士对鲍威尔讲话中的"鸽派 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of various industries, focusing on liquidity, construction, real estate, industrial products, pricing relationships, export chains, and valuation metrics, highlighting both opportunities and challenges in the market. Liquidity - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -3.7 percentage points in June 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.9 percentage points [3] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - Rebar prices reached a new high for the year, with weekly price changes showing rebar up by 5.50%, cement price index down by 2.05%, rubber up by 3.09%, coke up by 8.55%, coking coal up by 6.60%, and iron ore up by 0.64% [4] - National capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces, cement, asphalt, and all-steel tires decreased by 0.08 percentage points, 6.80 percentage points, 1.8 percentage points, and 0.08 percentage points respectively [4] Real Estate Completion Chain - Prices for titanium dioxide and flat glass changed by -0.38% and 0.00% respectively, with flat glass profit at -58 yuan/ton and titanium dioxide profit at -1350 yuan/ton; flat glass operating rate was 75% [5] Industrial Products Chain - Major commodity prices showed cold-rolled steel, copper, and aluminum increasing by 6.42%, 1.05%, and 0.19% respectively, with corresponding profit changes of +107.38%, -18.19%, and -1.86% [6] - The national operating rate for semi-steel tires was 75.87%, down by 0.12 percentage points [6] - The PMI new orders index for June was 50.20% [6] Subcategory Products - Prices for graphite electrodes were 18,000 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a comprehensive profit of 1357.4 yuan/ton, down by 15.09% [7] - Electrolytic aluminum price was 20,800 yuan/ton, up by 0.19%, with estimated profit at 3260 yuan/ton (excluding tax), down by 1.86% [7] - Electrolytic copper price was 79,580 yuan/ton, up by 1.05% [7] Pricing Relationships - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore was 4.37 this week; the price difference between hot-rolled and rebar was 100 yuan/ton [8] - The price difference between Shanghai cold-rolled and hot-rolled steel reached 370 yuan/ton, up by 10 yuan/ton [8] - The price difference between small rebar (mainly used in real estate) and large rebar (mainly used in infrastructure) was 150 yuan/ton, down by 6.25% from last week [8] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for China in June 2025 was 47.70%, up by 0.2 percentage points [9] - The CCFI comprehensive index for container shipping rates was 1261.35 points, down by 3.24% [9] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate was 78.00%, down by 0.70 percentage points [9] Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.69%, with the best-performing cyclical sector being cement manufacturing, which rose by 13.13% [10] - The PB ratio of the ordinary steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.57, with a historical high of 0.82 reached in August 2017 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in industrial commodity futures, driven by "anti-involution" policy expectations, has faced a significant downturn due to regulatory measures aimed at curbing speculation and managing risk in the market [1][2][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Actions - On July 25, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) imposed trading limits on coking coal futures, restricting non-futures company members or clients to a maximum of 500 contracts for the JM2509 contract and 2000 contracts for other coking coal futures starting July 29 [2]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) also announced that from July 28, non-futures company members or clients would be limited to a maximum of 3000 contracts for the LC2509 lithium carbonate futures [2]. - Various exchanges have issued risk warnings and implemented measures such as increasing margin requirements and tightening trading limits across multiple commodities, including coking coal, lithium carbonate, and industrial silicon [1][3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the regulatory measures, coking coal futures experienced a sharp decline, with the main contract dropping 7.76% to 1140.5 yuan/ton, while the holding volume for the restricted JM2509 contract decreased by 10.2 thousand contracts to 417 thousand contracts [1][3]. - Despite a continued rise in lithium carbonate futures, the main contract saw a near 6% drop during trading, with total trading volume decreasing by 56.7 thousand contracts to 1.203 million contracts [3][4]. - The GFEX has also limited the daily opening positions for polysilicon and industrial silicon futures, indicating a broader trend of tightening controls across various commodities [3]. Group 3: Market Trends and Speculation - The "anti-involution" theme has led to a rotation of speculative funds, with some short-term capital quickly shifting to ferroalloys, as evidenced by significant price increases in silicon iron and manganese silicon contracts on July 25 [5]. - The overall market sentiment remains influenced by policy interventions, with industrial commodity futures experiencing substantial price fluctuations driven by speculative trading and regulatory responses [6][7]. - Analysts suggest that while regulatory measures may temporarily suppress price volatility for coking coal and lithium carbonate, ongoing supply disruptions or improved demand expectations could lead prices to return to an upward trajectory [8].

Group 1 - The ASEAN+3 region's economic growth is projected to be 3.8% in 2023 and 3.6% in 2026, reflecting a downward adjustment due to challenges posed by US tariff policies [1][2] - The region is characterized by high trade dependency, with ASEAN countries' total trade amounting to approximately 94% of their nominal GDP, and nearly 50% for the ASEAN+3 region [2] - Central banks in the ASEAN+3 region have shown flexibility in monetary policy, with over half having implemented easing measures in response to tariff risks, indicating potential for further support [4][6] Group 2 - Key risks for the ASEAN+3 region include rising US tariffs, changes in global financial conditions, and volatility in commodity prices, particularly oil [3] - The region's central banks are expected to maintain cautious approaches due to inflation targeting and the need to manage capital flows, which could limit their ability to ease policies further [6][7] - Malaysia's recent interest rate cuts are seen as preemptive measures to address external uncertainties, while Vietnam is focusing on attracting foreign direct investment and upgrading its industrial structure for long-term resilience [7]

Core Viewpoint - China's foreign trade maintained resilience in the first half of the year, achieving total growth, quality improvement, and controllable variables despite a complex international environment [1][4]. Group 1: Total Growth - In the first half of the year, China's total import and export volume reached 21.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, with the growth rate accelerating by 0.4 percentage points compared to the first five months [1]. - Exports exceeded 13 trillion yuan for the first time in history during the same period, showing a rapid growth of 7.2% year-on-year [1]. - Imports totaled 8.79 trillion yuan, experiencing a year-on-year decline of 2.7%, but the decline was narrowed by 1.1 percentage points compared to the first five months [1]. - The second quarter saw a year-on-year growth of 4.5% in total trade, accelerating by 3.2 percentage points from the first quarter, marking seven consecutive quarters of growth [1]. Group 2: Quality Improvement - Chinese foreign trade enterprises have capitalized on the global energy transition trend, increasing the supply of high-quality green products and exploring new fields [2]. - Exports of electromechanical products reached 7.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%, accounting for 60% of total exports [2]. - High-end equipment related to new productive forces grew by over 20%, while "new three samples" products representing green and low-carbon initiatives increased by 12.7% [2]. Group 3: Controllable Variables - China expanded its trade partnerships, with imports and exports to over 190 countries and regions increasing, and the number of trading partners with a trade volume exceeding 50 billion yuan rising to 61, an increase of five compared to the previous year [2]. - Trade with traditional markets like the EU, Japan, and the UK grew, while emerging markets contributed significantly, with imports and exports to Africa and Central Asia increasing by 14.4% and 13.8% year-on-year, respectively [2]. - The fluctuation in import growth is attributed to uncertainties in international trade policies and falling prices of bulk commodities, which significantly impact China's import growth [3].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in commodity prices due to the conflict between Israel and Iran will not alter the inflation outlook for the Eurozone, according to the European Central Bank's Vice President, Luis de Guindos [1] Group 1: Inflation Outlook - Guindos stated that while rising oil prices are a concern, they appear to be under control, and the process of inflation decline is firmly anchored [1] - The growth rate of consumer prices has decreased from record highs to slightly below the ECB's target of 2% [1] - Officials are satisfied with the current trajectory of consumer prices, indicating a potential continuation of achieving the inflation target in the coming months [1] Group 2: Geopolitical Concerns - The situation in Iran adds complexity to an already tense global trade environment, which could impact economic stability [1] - Guindos emphasized the need for caution due to the high level of uncertainty surrounding these geopolitical issues [1]

Group 1: Oil Market Overview - WTI crude oil futures surged over 7%, currently priced at $73.39, while domestic crude oil futures hit a limit up at 535.2 yuan per barrel [1] - Oil and gas stocks opened significantly higher, with Tongyuan Petroleum reaching a 20% limit up, and several other stocks like Beiken Energy and Zhun Oil also hitting their limits [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - Notable stock performances include: - Keli Co., Ltd. up 26.22% at 39.95 - Tongyuan Petroleum up 19.91% at 5.06 - Potential Energy up 11.42% at 22.25 - Beiken Energy up 10.03% at 10.09 - Zhun Oil up 9.94% at 6.86 [2] Group 3: Domestic Oil Price Adjustments - The next round of domestic oil price adjustments is set to open on June 17, with predictions of a price increase due to rising international oil prices [2] - The current oil change rate indicates a 2.25% increase, predicting a rise of 135 yuan per ton for gasoline and diesel, translating to an increase of 0.10 to 0.12 yuan per liter [3]

Agriculture - Chicago futures market showed mixed results for corn, wheat, and soybeans on June 3, with corn up 0.06% to $4.39 per bushel, wheat down 0.56% to $5.36 per bushel, and soybeans up 0.7% to $10.41 per bushel [2] - The weather in the Midwest is expected to be warm and humid until June 18, which may create favorable growing conditions for crops [2] - Market focus is on potential crop yields in Europe, Russia, Canada, and the U.S. as weather conditions remain uncertain [2] Energy - International oil prices rose on June 3, with WTI crude up 1.42% to $63.41 per barrel and Brent crude up 1.55% to $65.63 per barrel [2] - The risk premium in oil prices has increased due to recent attacks in Ukraine and ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran regarding nuclear issues [3] - Canadian wildfires have impacted oil sands production by 344,000 barrels per day, approximately 7% of Canada's daily crude output [3] Metals - Gold prices fell by 0.60% to $3,376.9 per ounce on June 3, following a previous increase and amid profit-taking by investors [5] - The World Gold Council reported that global central banks purchased 12 tons of gold in April, a 12% decrease from March [5] - Most base metals on the London Metal Exchange saw price increases, with 3-month tin rising 2.96% to $31,450 per ton and 3-month copper up 0.24% to $9,638.5 per ton [5]