Market Overview - U.S. stocks experienced a decline, with the Dow Jones index dropping over 400 points, down 0.89% to 45,551.20, NASDAQ falling 1.27% to 21,136.11, and S&P 500 decreasing 0.91% to 6,418.40 [1] Sector Performance - Energy shares increased by 1.2%, while consumer discretionary stocks fell by 2% on the same day [2] Company News - Carnival Corporation's shares fell approximately 3% after reporting first-quarter earnings of 20 cents per share, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of 18 cents per share. However, the company lowered its earnings guidance despite quarterly sales of $6.165 billion, which also surpassed the analyst consensus estimate of $6.134 billion [3] Commodity Market - In commodities, oil prices rose by 3.4% to $97.71, gold increased by 1.2% to $4,429.00, silver went up 0.4% to $68.185, and copper saw a slight rise of 0.1% to $5.4780 [4] European Market - European shares declined, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 falling 1.2%, Spain's IBEX 35 Index down 1.3%, London's FTSE 100 decreasing by 0.4%, Germany's DAX dipping 1.6%, and France's CAC 40 falling 0.9% [5] Asian Market - Asian markets closed mixed, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 0.43%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index up 0.38%, China's Shanghai Composite gaining 0.63%, and India's BSE Sensex dipping 2.25% [6] Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index decreased to 53.3 in March from a preliminary reading of 55.5 and down from February's reading of 56.6 [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Affected by the high opening of coking coal, steel prices maintained a high - level volatile trend. Downstream demand is gradually picking up, and there is a price increase for non - standard specifications of rebar. Supply and demand in the steel industry are seasonally increasing, and inventories are seasonally decreasing, with basic balance in supply and demand. However, the upward elasticity of demand is not large, and domestic demand is slightly weak while exports are okay. After the end of production restrictions last week, production will rebound significantly this week, testing the height of demand. Recently, due to supply - side disturbances of iron ore and coking coal, raw material prices have strengthened, pushing up steel prices. Pay attention to whether rebar and hot - rolled coils can effectively break through 3150 and 3300 respectively [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Yesterday, the main iron ore contract rose and then fell. Geopolitical conflicts still cause disturbances, and commodities generally declined. Recently, the acceleration of steel mill复产 and the limited liquidity of some spot varieties support the futures price in the short term. The iron ore shipment from Guinea increased significantly month - on - month, and the sustainability of the shipment increase needs attention. In terms of fundamentals, on the supply side, the global iron ore shipment increased month - on - month, with significant increases in Australia and non - mainstream mines. The impact of rainfall in Brazil has weakened, and there will be no rainfall in Western Australia in the future. On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased month - on - month last week. Steel mills that had maintenance before are resuming production intensively recently, and the impact of steel mill maintenance has declined significantly. It is expected that the molten iron output will increase rapidly from this week. In terms of inventory, the steel mill inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and the port inventory increased slightly. Affected by the decline in arrivals and the restocking of downstream steel mills and the increase in port clearance, the port inventory has gradually changed from inventory accumulation to slight inventory reduction, but the high absolute inventory value will still restrict the price increase space. In the future, under the influence of geopolitical shocks, steel mill复产, and tightened spot liquidity, the main iron ore contract will fluctuate strongly in the short term, with the operating range referring to 780 - 840 yuan/ton [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Yesterday, the coke and coking coal futures prices fell from high levels. On the spot side, the mainstream steel mills started the first - round price cut for coke on March 4, which was successfully implemented on March 6. With the rise of coking coal, coke has a bottom - building and rebound expectation, and port prices fluctuate with futures. On the supply side, coke price adjustments lag behind coking coal. After the price cut, coking profits declined. During the Two Sessions, coke enterprise start - up decreased slightly and will gradually recover after the sessions. The sharp rise in chemical product prices makes up for the coke losses. On the demand side, after the end of the Two Sessions, steel mill production restrictions were lifted, molten iron output increased, and coke production increased synchronously. With the cost push, coke prices also have a bottom - building and rebound expectation. In terms of inventory, mines and ports are accumulating inventory, while coke enterprises, steel mills, coal washing plants, and ports are all reducing inventory. The overall inventory is seasonally decreasing, but the upstream inventory accumulation is bearish. The supply and demand of coke are basically balanced in the short term. In terms of strategy, the conflict between the US and Iran drives the sharp rise of energy commodities, giving a rising drive to coal and coke as energy substitutes, but the sustainability still needs to pay attention to the improvement of domestic supply and demand. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2605 contract at low prices, with the range referring to 1650 - 1850. For coking coal, energy inflation and substitution expectations will support it. The spot reaction lags, and it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract at low prices, with the range referring to 1100 - 1300, and the arbitrage suggestion is to go long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese Industry - Yesterday, the main silicon iron contract fell significantly, and commodities generally declined. On the spot side, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is limited, and they mainly produce according to orders. In terms of fundamentals, the silicon iron production increased slightly month - on - month last week. In the production areas, Ningxia and Qinghai resumed production. After resuming production this week, Shengjin reached full production, and Qinghai mainly produces according to orders. The hedging profit did not meet expectations, and the participation of manufacturers decreased. In the future, the silicon iron production will continue to increase, but the high electricity price in Qinghai will still suppress the start - up rate, and the supply growth rate may be slow. In terms of steelmaking demand, the molten iron output decreased month - on - month last week. Steel mills that had maintenance before are resuming production intensively recently, and it is expected that the molten iron output will increase rapidly from this week. In terms of magnesium and aluminum production, it is at a relatively low level but has decreased month - on - month, and the demand support has weakened. The export is affected, and it is difficult to conclude transactions in the short term, and the overall demand is marginally weakening. In terms of cost, the Lan charcoal price is stable, and the raw coal price and downstream demand are both supported. Affected by factors such as production area复产, the price of silicon ore fluctuates. In the future, in the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the market sentiment is changeable. The supply and demand of silicon iron both increase, and the supply - demand contradiction is limited, but there is no driving force for a trend - type market. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with the range referring to 5700 - 6200. - Yesterday, the main silicon manganese contract declined. Affected by energy costs and manganese ore support, silicon manganese has been stronger than silicon iron recently, and the price difference between silicon iron and silicon manganese has widened. On the spot side, the mainstream steel procurement prices have not been set, and the market sentiment is cautious. In terms of fundamentals, the silicon manganese supply increased slightly month - on - month. Production in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia remained stable, and production in Yunnan resumed due to electricity price subsidies. In Guangxi, Guizhou and other places, the valley - electricity cost increased, and manufacturers still have little enthusiasm to start production. It is expected that there will be new silicon manganese plant production capacity coming on - line in the second quarter, and the supply will continue to increase marginally. In terms of demand, the molten iron output decreased month - on - month last week. Steel mills that had maintenance before are resuming production intensively recently, and it is expected that the molten iron output will increase rapidly from this week. In terms of cost, some manganese ore sources at ports are in a tight supply - demand balance, and the downstream short - term transaction is difficult. The manganese ore price fluctuates due to factors such as the US - Iran conflict causing an increase in shipping and mining costs. In the future, in the short term, affected by international geopolitical conflicts, the market sentiment is changeable. The supply and demand of silicon manganese both increase, and the supply growth rate restricts the price increase height, while there is also no driving force for a trend - type decline. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely, with the range referring to 5800 - 6400 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3260, 3200, and 3280 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +10, 0, and 0 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. Rebar 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3140, 3165, and 3196 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 8, - 3, and - 1 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East China, North China, and South China are 3290, 3220, and 3280 yuan/ton respectively, with no change compared to the previous value. Hot - rolled coil 05, 10, and 01 contracts are 3310, 3311, and 3321 yuan/ton respectively, with a change of - 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous value [1]. Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2980 yuan/ton, with no change. The slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, with no change. - The cost of Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar is 3271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton; the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar is 3158 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton. - The profit of East China hot - rolled coil is 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the profit of North China hot - rolled coil is - 40 yuan/ton, with no change; the profit of South China hot - rolled coil is 20 yuan/ton, with no change. - The profit of East China rebar is - 10 yuan/ton, with no change; the profit of North China rebar is - 60 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the profit of South China rebar is 160 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output is 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.3 tons or 2.8% compared to the previous value. - The output of five major steel products is 821.0 tons, an increase of 23.7 tons or 3.0% compared to the previous value. - The rebar output is 195.3 tons, an increase of 22.0 tons or 12.7% compared to the previous value, among which the electric - furnace output is 29.0 tons, an increase of 17.3 tons or 148.2%, and the converter output is 166.3 tons, an increase of 4.7 tons or 2.9%. - The hot - rolled coil output is 295.3 tons, a decrease of 5.9 tons or 1.9% compared to the previous value [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1974.9 tons, an increase of 22.9 tons or 1.2% compared to the previous value. - The rebar inventory is 894.2 tons, an increase of 18.5 tons or 2.1% compared to the previous value. - The hot - rolled coil inventory is 471.6 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons or 0.0% compared to the previous value [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume is 9.3 tons, a decrease of 0.8 tons or 8.2% compared to the previous value. - The apparent demand of five major steel products is 798.1 tons, an increase of 106.7 tons or 15.4% compared to the previous value. - The apparent demand of rebar is 176.8 tons, an increase of 78.6 tons or 80.0% compared to the previous value. - The apparent demand of hot - rolled coil is 295.4 tons, an increase of 13.8 tons or 4.9% compared to the previous value [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines are 925.3, 849.0, 845.2, and 886.2 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 2.2, - 4.4, - 4.3, and - 4.3 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. - The 05 - contract basis of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines are 114.3, 38.0, 34.2, and 75.2 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 3.3, 1.1, 1.2, and 1.2 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. - The 5 - 9 spread is 32.0, an increase of 1.0 or 3.2% compared to the previous value; the 9 - 1 spread is 21.0, an increase of 0.5 or 2.4% compared to the previous value [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of Karara fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines at Rizhao Port are 951.0, 793.0, 823.0, and 738.0 yuan/wet ton respectively, with changes of - 2.0, - 4.0, - 4.0, and - 4.0 yuan/wet ton compared to the previous value. - The Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price is 107.1 dollars/ton, an increase of 0.7 dollars/ton or 0.6% compared to the previous value [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume (weekly) is 2215.0 tons, a decrease of 394.9 tons or 15.1% compared to the previous value. - The global shipment volume (weekly) is 3048.8 tons, an increase of 151.0 tons or 5.2% compared to the previous value. - The national monthly import volume is 9763.8 tons, a decrease of 2200.9 tons or 18.4% compared to the previous value [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.4 tons or 2.8% compared to the previous value. - The 45 - port daily average clearance volume (weekly) is 317.9 tons, an increase of 6.8 tons or 2.2% compared to the previous value. - The national monthly pig iron output is 0.0 tons, a decrease of 6072.2 tons or 100.0% compared to the previous value. - The national monthly crude steel output is 0.0 tons, a decrease of 6817.7 tons or 100.0% compared to the previous value [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory is 17187.52 tons, an increase of 69.7 tons or 0.4% compared to the previous value. - The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 8929.1 tons, a decrease of 82.5 tons or 0.9% compared to the previous value. - The inventory available days of 64 steel mills (weekly) is 23.0 days, with no change compared to the previous value [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse - receipt) is 1681 yuan/ton, with no change. The coke 05 and 09 contracts are - 11 and 1803 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 7 and - 7 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The 05 and 09 basis are 13 and - 69 yuan/ton respectively [6]. Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse - receipt) is 1230 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton or 2.5% compared to the previous value. The coking coal 05 and 09 contracts are 1722 and 1282 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of - 10 and - 22 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. The 05 and 09 basis are 74 and - 14 yuan/ton respectively [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.9 tons, a decrease of 0.1% compared to the previous value. The daily average output of 247 steel mills is 47.0 tons, with no change. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample mines is 873.9 tons, an increase of 12.6 tons or 1.5% compared to the previous value, and the clean coal output is 445.9 tons, an increase of 2.7 tons or 0.64% compared to the previous value [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills is 221.2 tons, a decrease of 6.4 tons or 2.8% compared to the previous value. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.9 tons, with no change [6]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory is 984.4 tons, a decrease of 0.3 tons or 0.0% compared to the previous value. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants is 100.4 tons, a decrease of 9.9 tons or 8.9% compared to the previous value. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills is 687

Core Viewpoint - The economic impact of the Iran conflict is evolving into a more complex phase as initial market shocks dissipate, leading to broader disruptions in the global commodity markets [1] Group 1: Market Phases - The market impact of conflicts typically unfolds in three phases: "initial shock wave," "ripple effect," and ultimately, long-term "reflow." The initial phase has largely passed, and the market is now entering the ripple effect stage, where supply disruptions and policy responses are affecting a wider range of commodities [3] - The global energy market has begun to reflect this transition, with initial volatility concentrated on commodities directly affected by Middle Eastern supply route disruptions, such as crude oil, refined oil, and natural gas [3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Production Impact - The initial price increases were primarily driven by logistical constraints rather than complete production losses, as tanker transport slowed and shipping routes became more difficult to plan, resulting in temporary global supply tightness [4] - However, the conflict is now entering a more destructive phase, where Gulf oil producers may be forced to cut production due to saturated storage capacity and ongoing shipping disruptions, transforming transportation issues into production shocks [5] Group 3: Government Responses and Broader Implications - Governments are increasingly prioritizing domestic energy security, which may lead to export restrictions and inventory reserve measures that could further tighten global supply and exacerbate price volatility [6] - The ripple effect may extend beyond the energy market, as rising fuel and natural gas prices could increase fertilizer costs and transportation expenses, potentially driving up agricultural and other commodity prices [7] Group 4: Market Uncertainties - While measures such as the release of strategic petroleum reserves and reduced demand may alleviate some pressure, uncertainties surrounding the duration of the conflict continue to create significant volatility in the commodity markets [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The soybean and oil market is generally under pressure, with most varieties showing a weak - oscillating pattern. The soybean meal market lacks upward drivers due to supply surplus, high inventory, and low demand, while the palm oil market has a mixed fundamental situation [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating weakly [5] - **Core Logic**: The soybean market is experiencing a high - level correction, with both internal and external pressures. The Middle - East geopolitical conflict has limited impact on agricultural products. Affected by the expected Brazilian harvest and uncertain Chinese demand, US soybeans have slightly declined from a 20 - month high, dragging down soybean futures prices. In the domestic market, the fundamentals are weak, with oil mills resuming production, high soybean meal inventory, and low purchasing willingness from downstream feed enterprises, which weakens the bullish sentiment. The weather in South American soybean - growing areas is a key factor affecting future yields [5][6] - **Future Focus**: The weather performance in South American soybean - growing areas [5][6] 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all oscillating weakly [5] - **Core Logic**: The fundamentals of palm oil are mixed. Heavy rain in Sabah, Malaysia may lead to a significant decline in February production, but weak export data drags down the de - stocking expectation. Indonesia's increase in export tax to support the domestic biodiesel policy provides support for prices. With the rotation of the oil and fat sector, the overall support is strengthened [7] - **Future Focus**: The repair of the soybean - palm oil price difference and the inventory digestion rhythm [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical event on February 28, where the US and Israel launched a large - scale military strike on Iran and Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei was killed, will have a significant impact on energy and chemical commodities, and a pulse - like impact on precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The evolution of the US - Iran conflict needs to be closely monitored [1][3]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: The US - Iran conflict has raised market risk - aversion, providing a pulse - like support for precious metal prices. The market expects the conflict to be controlled, and the precious metal price may open higher and then fluctuate on Monday. If the geopolitical situation gets out of control, the gold price may break the previous high; otherwise, it will remain in a high - level shock. In the long - term, the long - bull trend of precious metals is solid [3]. - **Silver**: Geopolitical factors have less impact on silver than on gold. The silver price is highly volatile, and there is a possibility of a further increase under the boost of risk - aversion. However, it is unlikely to reach a new high in the short term. Attention should be paid to the risk of a short squeeze in COMEX March silver, and the silver price is expected to remain highly volatile [4]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: As of 2025, Iran's refined copper production capacity is 320,000 tons, accounting for 1.7% of the global total. Iran has large copper ore reserves. If the conflict leads to a change in the Iranian regime or full US takeover, it may intensify the game for strategic resources among major economies and push up the copper price [5]. - **Aluminum**: Iran's electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 800,000 tons/year, with an actual operation of about 600,000 tons. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, the aluminum plants in six Middle - Eastern countries may cut production, and the aluminum price may rise strongly on Monday. In the medium - term, the price trend depends on the evolution of the conflict [6][7]. - **Zinc**: In 2025, Iran's zinc ore production accounted for less than 2% of the global total. Although the import volume from Iran is small, the continued escalation of the US - Iran conflict will strengthen the expectation of a tight zinc ore supply. The short - term zinc price is mainly affected by geopolitical events and may open higher [8]. - **Lead**: Iran's lead resources account for a relatively low proportion globally. The US - Iran conflict may drive lead prices to open slightly higher in the short term. If the situation does not escalate, the price will return to the fundamentals and fluctuate within a range [9]. - **Tin**: Iran's tin resources are limited, but the conflict may indirectly affect the transportation and supply chain of major tin - producing countries. Short - term risk - aversion, supply risk expectations, and capital flows will push up the tin price, but there is a risk of price correction [10]. Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: After the US - Iran conflict, the spot price of coastal methanol increased. Iran accounts for a large proportion of the Middle - East's methanol production capacity and China's methanol imports. If the conflict expands, there may be a supply interruption. The domestic methanol main contract is expected to open higher on Monday [11][12]. - **Palm Oil**: The geopolitical conflict may boost the oil price and the palm oil market. However, considering the fundamentals of the palm oil market, it is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. Black Commodities - The impact of the US attack on Iran on black futures is relatively limited. The price of black commodities is mainly affected by domestic supply - demand, policies, and terminal demand. The black futures are expected to stabilize in the short term [14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - During the important national meetings, steel mills have expectations of phased emission reduction and control, putting pressure on the rigid demand for coking coal and other furnace materials; the mining end is in the resumption stage, and the supply - demand mismatch rhythm may cause the price of coking coal to perform weaker than that of finished products [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Performance - Last week, the coking coal futures prices fluctuated weakly, performing weaker than finished products. The spot prices in the production areas remained stable, and the prices of port resources fluctuated slightly. The intensification of overseas geopolitical conflicts during the weekend may affect commodity prices [2] Supply - side Situation - Last week, coal mines entered the peak of resumption of production, with most private coal mines resuming production. The daily production of raw coal and clean coal last week was 1.516 million tons and 649,000 tons respectively, an increase of 430,000 tons and 190,000 tons compared with the previous week. After the Spring Festival, the daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal has returned to a relatively high level, with a clearance volume of about 180,000 tons on February 23, and the inventory in the port supervision area is still at a high level [3] Demand - side Situation - Last week, the average daily hot metal output of steel mill blast furnaces was about 2.33 million tons. Affected by environmental protection and production restriction policies this week, the growth rhythm of hot metal output is expected to slow down. During the important meetings, steel mills have phased emission reduction and control expectations, which will put pressure on the demand for coking coal and other furnace materials [2][3] Other Influencing Factors - This week, the important national meetings will be held. On the one hand, pay attention to the changes in macro - policy expectations. On the other hand, some steel enterprises in North China will implement phased emission reduction and control from March 4th to March 11th, with blast furnace loads reducing emissions independently by no less than 30%, which will put pressure on the demand for coking coal and other furnace materials in the short term [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report In the short term, the butadiene rubber futures market is expected to maintain a range - bound and oscillatory pattern, with the market likely to be mainly in a state of oscillatory consolidation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - This week (February 9 - 13, 2026), the main contract of butadiene rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange first rose and then fell, closing at the weekly low on Friday. It opened at 12765 yuan/ton on February 9, reached a maximum of 13175 yuan/ton, a minimum of 12490 yuan/ton, and closed at 12505 yuan/ton on February 13, down 285 yuan/ton from the previous Friday. The position on Friday was 14990 lots, with continuous position reduction [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Conditions - **Industrial Chain Price Changes**: The butadiene spot price first rose and then fell this week. It was 1472.20 US dollars/ton on February 9, reached a weekly high of 1504.74 US dollars/ton on February 11, and closed at 1477.92 US dollars/ton on February 13, up 0.39% from the beginning of the week. The price of styrene, the main raw material for butadiene rubber, fluctuated downward, falling from 1111.37 US dollars/ton on February 9 to 1093.95 US dollars/ton on February 13, a cumulative decrease of 1.57%, weakening the cost - side support for butadiene rubber [1][2]. - **International Market Reference**: In December 2025, the South Korean styrene - butadiene rubber export price index showed that the index in Korean won was 175.16, and in US dollars was 141.96 (both with 2020 as 100), indicating that the international styrene - butadiene rubber price was still at a relatively high level, providing some support for the domestic butadiene rubber market [2]. 3.3 Main Influencing Factors - **Macroeconomic and Market Sentiment**: A recent report from Bank of America included US raw material stocks in the "bubbly" asset watch list, warning of bubble - like price fluctuations in the raw material sector. This view has raised concerns about the overall trend of commodities and suppressed the sentiment in the butadiene rubber futures market [2][3]. - **Industrial Chain Supply and Demand Situation**: Upstream, as the Spring Festival approaches, spot market transactions are gradually coming to a halt, trade quotes are scarce, lithium salt plants are cautious about selling single orders, and there is a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The market shows a pattern of double - reduction in supply and demand, and pre - holiday market transactions are expected to remain light, which also indirectly affects the trading mentality of butadiene rubber market participants [3]. 3.4 Short - term Outlook - **Spring Festival Holiday Impact**: As the Spring Festival approaches, spot market trading will further shrink, logistics will gradually stop or increase prices, and reduced market liquidity may intensify price fluctuations. - **Raw Material Price Trends**: Continuous attention should be paid to the price changes of upstream raw materials such as butadiene and styrene, as their price fluctuations will directly affect the production cost and market price of butadiene rubber. - **Macroeconomic Market Sentiment**: Bank of America's warning about the bubble risk in the raw material sector. If there is an adjustment in the commodity market in the future, it may put pressure on the butadiene rubber futures price. - **Downstream Demand Recovery**: The automotive and tire industries, as the main consumption areas of butadiene rubber, their post - holiday resumption of work and production progress and demand recovery will be the key factors affecting the market trend [3].

Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - The precious metals sector showed strong performance during the Spring Festival holiday, with COMEX silver futures rising over 11%, leading among major commodities, while COMEX gold futures increased by over 3% [2] - Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran were identified as a key driver for the price fluctuations in precious metals, with the market reacting to developments in negotiations and conflicts [2][3] - The US Supreme Court's ruling on the legality of large-scale tariffs imposed by the Trump administration is seen as a significant event affecting precious metal prices, with potential implications for inflation and market risk preferences [2][3] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil market experienced a strong rebound during the Spring Festival, with Brent crude oil futures rising over 5% and WTI crude oil futures increasing by over 4% [5] - The core pricing of the oil market remains influenced by geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly the developments related to the US-Iran situation [5][6] - The reduction in US crude oil inventories reported by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) during the holiday period provided additional support for market prices [5] Group 3: Future Price Volatility - Looking ahead, the oil market faces several core issues, including uncertainties regarding OPEC+ production policies and the growth of non-OPEC oil production [6] - Seasonal demand fluctuations are expected as global refineries enter a traditional maintenance period, which may lead to temporary demand contraction [6] - The precious metals market is characterized by high uncertainty, with recommendations for cautious trading strategies, particularly for gold and silver, based on geopolitical tensions and central bank activities [7]

Group 1 - The global commodity market showed a mixed trend during the Spring Festival holiday, with precious metals leading the gains and a strong performance in the energy sector [1] - Significant increases were observed in COMEX silver and gold futures, as well as Brent and WTI crude oil futures, drawing market attention [1] - Factors such as geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, US tariff policy decisions, and tight silver inventories supported the price increases of precious metals and crude oil [1] Group 2 - Future market outlook indicates that commodity price volatility is likely to increase due to supply uncertainties, seasonal demand fluctuations, and macroeconomic disturbances [1] - Precious metals and crude oil are expected to remain the core commodities driving market volatility, necessitating close attention to related risks [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - The precious metals sector showed strong performance during the Spring Festival holiday, with COMEX silver futures rising over 11%, leading among major commodities, while COMEX gold futures increased by over 3% [1] - Geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran were identified as a core driver for the price fluctuations in precious metals, with initial negotiations leading to a drop in oil prices and subsequent strong recoveries in both oil and precious metals [1][2] - The global silver inventory remains tight, and the upcoming March delivery month for COMEX silver futures is expected to test the market, with a high probability of price increases similar to previous delivery months [2] Group 2: Oil Market Dynamics - The international oil market experienced a strong rebound during the Spring Festival, with Brent crude oil futures rising over 5% and WTI crude oil futures increasing by over 4% [2] - The pricing of international oil remains heavily influenced by geopolitical risks in the Middle East, particularly the developments surrounding the US-Iran situation [2] - A significant reduction in US crude oil inventories, as reported by the EIA, provided additional support for market prices during the holiday period [2] Group 3: Broader Commodity Market Trends - Other commodities displayed mixed performance, with industrial metals like aluminum, nickel, and copper showing slight increases, while tin experienced a small decline during the Spring Festival [3] - Looking ahead, the oil market faces several core issues, including uncertainties regarding OPEC+ production policies and the growth of non-OPEC oil production, which will impact market balance [3] - Seasonal demand fluctuations are anticipated as global refineries enter a traditional maintenance period, potentially leading to temporary demand contractions [3] Group 4: Investment Strategies - The precious metals market is characterized by high uncertainty, suggesting a cautious approach to trading, with recommendations for gold investors to reduce positions during price spikes and accumulate during sharp declines [4] - For silver, which is more influenced by events and capital flows, strategies may include buying during sharp declines or following effective breakouts [4]