1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macro - geopolitical risks have suddenly increased, leading to a rise in market risk - aversion sentiment, but the domestic macro - environment is relatively warm with policy expectations remaining. In the industry, the five major steel products continued to accumulate inventory in the first week after the Spring Festival. Both rebar and hot - rolled coils showed a structure of decreasing production and increasing demand, and the overall inventory growth rate slowed down. Hot - rolled coils' short - term demand rebounded faster and may reach an inventory decline inflection point in one or two weeks. Rebar still has inventory accumulation pressure in the short term, but its supply - demand structure is expected to continuously improve. Supported by macro - expectations and the improvement of fundamentals, steel prices have room to rise at low levels. It is recommended to mainly adopt high - selling and low - buying strategies within the range. [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - In the first week after the Spring Festival, steel products continued to accumulate inventory, and steel prices bottomed out and rebounded. Terminal demand had not fully recovered, and the five major steel products still had seasonal inventory accumulation. Although the inventory growth of rebar and hot - rolled coils slowed down, the inventory accumulation pressure still suppressed prices. Driven by policy expectations, steel prices bottomed out and rebounded, but the upward space was limited. [9] 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: Rebar weekly output was 165.1 tons (down 3.10% week - on - week and 20.05% year - on - year), and the national hot - rolled coil weekly output was 309.61 tons (down 0.06% week - on - week and 4.18% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace production decreased while electric furnace production remained stable. The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates both rebounded. The national blast furnace operating rate was 80.22% (up 0.11% week - on - week and 3.27% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 10.14% (up 2.94% week - on - week and down 83.99% year - on - year). [15][16][23] - **Profit**: Rebar profit was +24 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan/ton week - on - week and 19 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was +2 yuan/ton (up 0.1 yuan/ton week - on - week and 0.3 yuan/ton year - on - year). [25] - **Demand**: The demand for both rebar and hot - rolled coils rebounded after the Spring Festival. Rebar apparent consumption was 80.54 tons (up 95.67% week - on - week and down 57.77% year - on - year), the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 3.49 tons (down 51.40% week - on - week and 68.52% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 291.31 tons (up 18.07% week - on - week and down 9.62% year - on - year). [30] - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory continued to accumulate, and the growth rate of factory and social inventories slowed down. Rebar factory inventory was 232.84 tons (up 5.32% week - on - week and down 0.61% year - on - year), social inventory was 567.76 tons (up 14.71% week - on - week and down 9.76% year - on - year), and total inventory was 800.6 tons (up 11.81% week - on - week and down 7.28% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil inventory growth narrowed, and social inventory remained at a relatively high level in the same period of history. Hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 94.78 tons (up 1.50% week - on - week and 3.65% year - on - year), social inventory was 357.37 tons (up 4.96% week - on - week and 4.83% year - on - year), and total inventory was 452.15 tons (up 4.22% week - on - week and 3.85% year - on - year). [35][39] - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, land market transactions rebounded slightly from a low level. The weekly commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 92.37% week - on - week and 94.40% year - on - year, and the transaction land area of 100 large - and medium - sized cities rebounded by 15.32% week - on - week and decreased by 38.81% year - on - year. In the automotive market, in January 2026, automobile production increased slightly year - on - year while sales declined year - on - year. Automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively, with production increasing by 0.01% year - on - year and sales decreasing by 3.2% year - on - year. New energy vehicle production and sales were 1.041 million and 0.945 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 2.5% and 0.1% respectively. In January, automobile exports were 681,000, with a year - on - year increase of 44.9%, and new energy vehicle exports were 302,000, doubling year - on - year. [42][45] 3.3 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils both contracted, the rebar 5 - 10 spread widened slightly, the coil - to - rebar spread continued to contract, and the iron ore 5 - 9 spread widened slightly. [47][52]