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市场权威专家:观察货币政策效果要看累积效应
第一财经· 2026-02-13 10:17
2026年开年,人民银行先行出台了一批支持实体经济的货币金融政策,积极助力经济结构转型优 化。政策举措既有再贷款工具的完善与创新,也有再贷款利率的下调,加力支持民营、科技创新、绿 色和消费等重点内需领域。 据上述专家粗略匡算,当前人民币贷款余额约270万亿元,按照贷款利率下降2.5个百分点计算,相 当于每年为贷款主体节约利息支出超过6万亿元。 市场权威专家表示,货币政策调整是一次性的,但货币政策调整后对实体经济的影响是持续的。近年 来,央行已多次采取力度较大的货币政策调整,存量政策与增量政策的集成效应将持续显现,观察政 策效果的重点还在于关注累积效应。 2018年下半年以来,我国已18次下调存款准备金率,向市场提供的中长期流动性持续在银行体系和 金融市场发挥作用。 2026.02. 13 回溯来看,与2018年下半年本轮降息周期以来的高点相比,政策利率共下调了10次,累计下调了 1.15个百分点,引导企业贷款利率和个人房贷利率分别下降2.5个和2.7个百分点。 本文字数:878,阅读时长大约2分钟 作者 | 第一财经 杜川 2022年~2023年年中,美联储等主要经济体央行普遍在加息,货币政策是收紧的,而我国 ...
市场权威专家:观察货币政策效果要看累积效应
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2026-02-13 09:52
Group 1 - The People's Bank of China has introduced a series of monetary policies to support the real economy, focusing on optimizing economic structure and enhancing support for key domestic demand areas such as private enterprises, technological innovation, green initiatives, and consumption [1] - Since the second half of 2018, the central bank has lowered the reserve requirement ratio 18 times, providing sustained medium- and long-term liquidity to the banking system and financial markets [1] - The cumulative reduction in policy interest rates since the peak of the current interest rate cycle is 1.15 percentage points, leading to a decrease in corporate loan rates by 2.5 percentage points and personal mortgage rates by 2.7 percentage points [1] Group 2 - Current RMB loan balance is approximately 270 trillion yuan, and the reduction in loan rates is estimated to save borrowers over 6 trillion yuan in interest payments annually [1] - While developed economies are in a rate-cutting cycle, China's monetary policy remains relatively loose, focusing on reducing overall financing costs for society [1] - China's personal mortgage rates are nearing the average levels seen during the "zero interest rate" periods in the US, UK, and Japan, with consumer loan rates even lower than those during the same periods in the US [2]