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机构研究周报:市场风格有望再平衡,货币政策或加快放松
Wind万得· 2025-11-09 22:31
Core Viewpoints - The market style is expected to rebalance in November, potentially returning to a "dumbbell" structure, as liquidity remains relatively loose and external factors like the Fed's interest rate expectations may fluctuate [1][22]. Economic Data - China's October exports fell by 1.1% year-on-year, below the expected 3% growth, while imports grew by 1%. The trade surplus was $90.07 billion, slightly down from the previous month's $90.45 billion. For the first ten months of 2025, total trade value reached $520.46 billion, a 2.7% year-on-year increase [3][4]. - The decline in exports is attributed to a high base from the previous year and a slowing global economy, compounded by increased tariffs from the U.S. [3]. Equity Market Insights - Morgan Asset Management indicates that the global macro environment remains favorable for risk assets, supported by healthy consumer balance sheets, expectations of gradual monetary easing from the Fed, and ongoing fiscal stimulus [5]. - CITIC Securities suggests that resource products may become a new investment focus due to global monetary easing and supply-demand gaps, highlighting strategic resources like rare earths and lithium as having long-term investment value [6]. - China Europe Fund emphasizes the importance of cyclical stocks and technology resonance, suggesting that the market's current valuation recovery is nearly complete, with future growth driven by earnings [7]. Industry Research - CITIC Securities highlights that 2026 will be a critical year for the recovery of real estate companies' balance sheets, with a potential bottoming out of profits. The residential market shows signs of stabilization, and companies with quality investment properties are expected to perform well [11]. - Guotai Junan Securities notes that the liquor industry is undergoing a period of accelerated adjustment, with inventory clearing expected to lead to a rebound in stock prices [12]. - Penghua Fund anticipates that the domestic economy will seek balance between policy support and structural optimization over the next two to three years, favoring high-quality dividend assets [13]. Macro and Fixed Income - Huatai Securities recommends a focus on short-term credit bonds for defensive strategies, as overall credit demand is weakening [18]. - CICC predicts that monetary policy will accelerate easing due to ongoing export pressures, with expectations for rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [19]. - Bosera Fund indicates that domestic financial policies are favorable for the bond market, enhancing supply-demand dynamics [20].