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风险资产恐慌 加密货币遭遇近六个月最大规模平仓潮
Ge Long Hui· 2025-10-11 05:34
昨晚加密货币价格暴跌,事实上,加密货币市场的疲软在周五之前就已显现。Coinglass数据显示, 在过去24小时内,价值约100亿美元的押注被抹去,这是自至少四月初以来最大规模的一次平仓潮。规 模较小、流动性较低的代币受到的打击最为严重:在过去24小时内,XRP、热门模因币DOGE以及 Cardano的ADA分别下跌了约19%、27%和25%。主要经纪商Falcon X市场联席主管Ravi Doshi表示:"贸 易领域的突发事件导致了市场不确定性,并引发风险资产暴跌。"Doshi称,该公司衍生品交易台全天对 下行保护的需求超出寻常。 (责任编辑:贺翀 ) 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点,与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立,不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考,并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱: news_center@staff.hexun.com ...
深夜!全线暴跌 发生了什么?
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-10-10 23:46
Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with major indices falling sharply, including the Nasdaq dropping over 3%, marking its largest single-day decline since April [2][3] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 1.9%, while the S&P 500 index decreased by 2.71% [3] - Major tech stocks also suffered, with TSMC ADR down over 6%, and other companies like Tesla, Nvidia, and Amazon dropping more than 4% [3] Global Impact - Global financial markets faced widespread sell-offs, with European indices also declining, such as the Euro Stoxx 50 down 1.75% [3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell over 6%, impacting Chinese stocks significantly, with Futu Holdings down over 11% and NIO down over 10% [3] Commodities and Cryptocurrencies - Oil prices plummeted, with WTI crude oil falling over 4.24% and Brent crude down 4.62% [4] - Cryptocurrencies faced severe losses, with Bitcoin dropping over 13% and Ethereum falling more than 17% [4] Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for October was reported at 55, the lowest since May, indicating stagnant consumer confidence [8] - Consumers expect inflation to rise at an annual rate of 4.6% next year, with over 63% anticipating an increase in unemployment [8] Government Actions - The U.S. government shutdown has escalated, with the Trump administration implementing large-scale permanent layoffs of federal employees, affecting thousands across multiple departments [6][7] - This action marks a departure from previous practices during government shutdowns, intensifying the political standoff between the Trump administration and Democrats [7]
深夜!全线暴跌,发生了什么?
券商中国· 2025-10-10 23:27
北京时间10月10日深夜,全球金融市场全线重挫,美股三大指数直线跳水,跌幅持续扩大,道指一度暴跌超880点,截至收盘,道 指大跌1.9%,纳指暴跌3.56%,标普500指数暴跌2.71%。 美股遭遇"黑色星期五"。 北京时间10月10日深夜,美股三大指数全线跳水,截至收盘,纳指暴跌超3%,创4月以来最大单日跌幅;美股大型科技股集体重 挫。欧洲多国股市尾盘亦全线跳水,原油及加密货币也遭受重创,WTI原油暴跌超4%,比特币日内一度暴跌超13%,VIX恐慌指数 大幅飙涨超31%。 有分析指出,相关事态的不确定性导致风险资产全线下挫。另外,美国政府"停摆"事件升级,特朗普政府已开始对联邦雇员实施大 规模的永久性裁员,进一步加剧了市场紧张情绪。宏观数据方面,美国10月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值为55,为5月以来最 低。 全球暴跌 美股大型科技股集体大跌,截至收盘,台积电ADR暴跌超6%,博通、特斯拉暴跌超5%,英伟达、亚马逊大跌超4%,苹果、Meta 大跌超3%,微软跌超2%,谷歌、甲骨文跌超1%。 在美股盘后,美国科技巨头股价继续走低,英伟达、特斯拉、甲骨文盘后跌幅均超2%,新思科技、Cadence盘后跌幅超3%。 ...
每日机构分析:10月9日
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-09 13:33
Group 1 - Nomura Securities reports that foreign capital is returning, with the yen approaching the 150 mark, indicating potential weakness in the currency [1] - Goldman Sachs highlights that expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and improved corporate earnings are supporting risk assets [1][3] - Oxford Economics states that Spain's economic growth is likely to continue into next year, driven by a strong tourism sector, robust job market, and effective use of EU investment funds [1] Group 2 - CBA analysts note that the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes align with market expectations for two rate cuts by year-end, despite potential delays in key economic data due to government shutdown [2] - ING analysts observe low volatility in the Eurozone government bond market, with attractive yield spreads between French, Italian, and German bonds [2] - Morgan Stanley predicts that South Korea's exports will maintain a positive trend until the end of 2025, supported by demand for AI semiconductors and non-tech products [2] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs traders indicate that global stock indices remain above key moving averages, with ample liquidity supporting risk assets and a focus on earnings season and FOMC meetings [3] - Morgan Stanley reports that a tenfold increase in computing power could lead to a non-linear leap in AI model capabilities by 2026, potentially reshaping asset valuations in global supply chains [3] - Nomura strategists mention that a weak yen is driving the Japanese stock market upward, with foreign capital inflow and a projected P/E ratio reaching a high of 17 times since Abe's administration [3]
全球宏观环境对风险资产具有决定性支撑作用;高盛顶级宏观交易员_ZeroHedge
Goldman Sachs· 2025-09-26 02:28
2025/9/24 19:37 全球宏观环境对⻛险资产具有决定性⽀撑作⽤;⾼盛顶级宏观交易员 | ZeroHedge 全球宏观环境对⻛险资产具有决定性⽀撑作⽤;⾼ 盛顶级宏观交易员 作者:泰勒·德登 2025 年 9 ⽉ 23 ⽇星期⼆ - 晚上 10:25 ⾼盛⾸席宏观交易员保罗·斯基亚沃尼 (Paolo Schiavone) 表⽰,全球宏观环境对⻛险资产具有决定 性⽀持作⽤。 过去六个⽉,全球⼋成央⾏已降低利率, 76%的经合组织经济体领先指标⽬前处于扩张或复苏状 态。 流动性充裕,增⻓势头改善,投资者被推向⻛险曲线的更远处。 https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/global-macro-conditions-are-decisively-supportive-risk-assets-top-goldman-macro-trader 1/4 2025/9/24 19:37 全球宏观环境对⻛险资产具有决定性⽀撑作⽤;⾼盛顶级宏观交易员 | ZeroHedge 宽松的⾦融条件加上较低的实际利率为⻛险资产创造了有利的环境。 以下七个简短的要点: 1. 美国经济增⻓与资产负债表 美 ...
罕见!黄金今年36次、美股28次,同创新高,什么信号?如何交易?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 11:54
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is initiating interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in global asset prices, with significant movements in both risk and safe-haven assets [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Nvidia's substantial investment in OpenAI has reignited the AI boom, pushing the three major U.S. stock indices to new highs, with the S&P 500 index hitting its 28th record high this year [2]. - COMEX gold prices closed at $3,775.10, marking the 36th record high of the year, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 43% [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The simultaneous rise of risk and safe-haven assets has led to skepticism among investors regarding whether the market has reached "perfect pricing" [5]. - Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett suggests that the combination of tariff cuts, tax reductions, and interest rate cuts creates a "run-it-hot" policy environment, providing implicit guarantees for the economy and stock market [5]. - Deutsche Bank's report indicates that the market has not yet reached a "perfect pricing" state, suggesting that concerns about future risks may actually provide room for potential market increases [5][6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Hartnett proposes a five-point trading strategy to navigate the current market conditions, including investing directly in bubble assets, constructing a "barbell" portfolio, shorting corporate bonds of bubble companies, shorting U.S. bonds, and trading volatility [10][11]. - The current market sentiment is characterized by a belief that "money is depreciating, and holding it is less favorable than consumption or investment," driving funds into risk assets [6]. Group 4: Gold Market Analysis - The rise in gold prices is attributed to geopolitical uncertainties, inflation concerns, and expectations of interest rate cuts, creating a "perfect storm" for gold [13][14]. - Deutsche Bank notes that the high gold prices reflect market fear rather than extreme optimism, indicating a typical sign of investors seeking safe-haven assets [13]. - Despite concerns about a potential bubble, key market indicators have not shown signs of irrational exuberance, suggesting that the current gold market may be in a sustained bull phase rather than a bubble [14][15].
金价创出今年第36个新高,什么信号?如何交易?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-23 11:50
美联储正着手降息,全球主要资产价格高歌猛进。 隔夜,英伟达对OpenAI的巨额投资再次引爆AI热潮,推动美国三大股指接连刷新高点。其中,标准普尔500指数今年第28次创下新高。 COMEX黄金价格在周一收盘在3775.10美元,创下年内第36个收盘历史新高,经通胀调整后的黄金价格已超过1980年1月的高点。今年以来,金价 累计涨幅已达约43%。 比如,黄金价格创历史新高、持续的通胀和关税担忧、劳动力市场放缓以及央行降息预期,都反映出市场已计入大量潜在的下行风险。 换句话说,一旦这些被定价的风险未能成为现实,或者情况好于预期,市场反而可能迎来进一步的上行空间。 汇丰9月22日发布的《上涨,上涨,再上涨》研报指出,美国经济数据的重新加速迹象与美联储的降息构成了一个"强有力的催化剂",将继续推动 风险资产走高。 各类资产价格正呈现普遍的上涨态势。我们认为,好戏还在后头。 高盛交易员Paolo Schiavone则从市场情绪角度补充,认为当前市场弥漫着一种"货币正在贬值,持有不如消费或投资"的感觉,这也在助推资金涌 入风险资产。这种情绪迫使表现落后的基金经理不得不追逐高风险、高贝塔值的投资标的,以求在年底奖金季前跟上 ...
“美国经济增长+美联储降息”=风险资产“涨涨涨”?
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-09-23 07:09
这份报告罗列了多项支持美国经济再加速判断的证据。 风险资产的盛宴可能远未结束。 据追风交易台消息,汇丰9月22日发布的《上涨,上涨,再上涨》研报指出,美国经济数据的重新加速迹象与美联储的降息构成了一个"强有力的 催化剂",将继续推动风险资产走高。 各类资产价格正呈现普遍的上涨态势。我们认为,好戏还在后头。 该行首席多资产策略师Max Kettner团队分析,尽管市场对美国经济前景存在分歧,美国存在劳动力市场疲软、违约率上升等风险,但一系列指标 显示经济正在重拾动能。与此同时,美联储的宽松倾向为市场注入了关键的流动性预期。标普500指数已创下历史新高,而新兴市场和高收益债券 的利差也收窄至周期性低点。 报告强调,当前美国"K型复苏"不仅不构成风险,反而强化了其看多立场。一方面,高收入群体财富增长、实际工资水平保持良好,支撑了整体 消费和经济数据;另一方面,低收入群体面临的通胀压力、薪资放缓和违约率上升等问题,恰恰成为美联储推出降息的关键理由。这种"高增长 +宽货币"的组合,为风险资产提供了类似"金发姑娘"的有利环境。 美国经济复苏信号 从自上而下的宏观数据看,美国每周零售销售和综合增长指标自6月底以来均出现改善 ...
《周末小结系列》:“保险式降息”:美元见底?美股还能嗨多久?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-23 00:15
Group 1 - The core focus of the market in the past week was on the strong U.S. retail sales data and the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, which resulted in a significant interest rate cut described as "insurance-style" [1][5] - U.S. retail sales data exceeded expectations, particularly the retail control group, indicating that consumer spending remains robust despite signs of a cooling labor market [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates was characterized as a preventive measure rather than a response to an economic downturn, suggesting that the overall economic condition is still stable [5][6] Group 2 - The market's initial reaction to the retail data was somewhat counterintuitive, with short-term interest rates falling before rebounding after the FOMC meeting [6][8] - The performance of the U.S. dollar is expected to stabilize, with potential for a rebound as the Fed enters a phase of consecutive rate cuts, which may correct market expectations of excessive easing [11][18] - U.S. equities, particularly growth and technology stocks, have been performing well, supported by the combination of a stable economy and Fed rate cuts, with small-cap stocks potentially poised for a rebound due to low positioning [13][14][16] Group 3 - The Bank of England faces a dilemma regarding the sale of long-term bonds purchased during QE, which could either exacerbate the pressure on the bond market or lead to significant losses if held [16][18] - The overall conclusion from the week's events indicates that the U.S. economy is not weakening as feared, and the Fed's "insurance-style" rate cut is favorable for risk assets, with implications for the dollar, equities, and gold [18]
在刺激与通胀之间找平衡
Guo Ji Jin Rong Bao· 2025-09-22 03:33
Group 1 - The current economic environment is characterized by conflicting views: one advocating for more stimulus measures and the other indicating a strong but mature economic cycle [1] - Private sector spending is growing at the fastest rate in 20 years, suggesting that additional stimulus may not be necessary [2] - High inflation rates are stabilizing at a 30-year high, impacting the perception of nominal growth [2] Group 2 - The rapid investment in artificial intelligence (AI) could enhance productivity and extend the economic cycle, although there are risks of misallocation of funds [3] - Fiscal and monetary policies are not overly tight, with significant fiscal easing being implemented since 2010 [3] - Tariffs are causing macroeconomic fluctuations, but high nominal growth may continue to benefit risk assets [4] Group 3 - Inflation-driven growth may lead to rising interest rates, particularly if governments continue to accumulate deficits without addressing debt through high inflation [4] - The bond market may eventually require higher risk compensation for fiscal policies, potentially steepening the yield curve [4] - Investors should prepare for a shift from the current economic environment by diversifying portfolios and ensuring flexibility to capture investment opportunities [4]