格隆汇8月26日｜IG市场分析师托尼·西卡莫尔在一封电子邮件中写道，美国总统特朗普解除美联储理事 丽莎·库克的职务，为美联储的独立性敲响了警钟。特朗普的举动标志着在任美联储理事首次面临总统 的罢免企图。短期来看，库克倾向于支持FOMC多数成员的投票，他的离职增加了美联储9月份降息的 可能性。这一前景预计将给美元带来压力，并为股票和包括比特币在内的其他风险资产提供支撑。 ...

在上周上涨之后，油价趋于稳定，交易员们密切关注供应方面的紧张局势以及美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威 尔上周五发表讲话暗示下月可能重新降息后风险资产的整体情绪。布伦特原油价格接近每桶 68 美元， 上周上涨近 3%，而西德克萨斯中质原油价格高于 63 美元。美国威胁要将对印度所有进口商品的关税 提高一倍至 50%，以报复印度购买俄罗斯 石油。在周三关税生效之前，印度外交官表示，当地炼油厂 将继续从莫斯科购买原油。在鲍威尔周五发表讲话暗示下月可能重新降息之后，包括 大宗商品在内的 风险资产周一可能继续上涨。原油可能会从经济活动的刺激以及美元走弱中获益。 ...

Economic Context - At the 2025 Jackson Hole meeting, Fed Chair Powell hinted at a potential shift towards easing monetary policy, with a 25 basis point rate cut in September seen as almost certain by the market[4] - The U.S. economy is facing dual challenges: inflation pressures rising due to tariff increases and a weak labor market with synchronized supply and demand softening[4] Inflation and Employment - Core PCE inflation has risen to 2.9%, above last year's level, with significant increases in commodity prices[4] - Despite a low unemployment rate of 4.2%, non-farm employment growth has sharply slowed, indicating increasing risks to job stability[6] Policy Framework Changes - Powell announced the abandonment of the "compensatory" average inflation targeting introduced in 2020, reverting to a more traditional flexible inflation target[7] - This adjustment reflects a recognition that intentional mild inflation overshooting is not suitable in the current economic context, especially amid severe and persistent inflation shocks[7] Market Reactions - Market expectations for a September rate cut have surged, with over 85% probability indicated in federal funds futures[7] - If the Fed opts for more aggressive easing, such as a 50 basis point cut or a series of cuts, it could lead to significant impacts on risk assets, particularly in the tech sector and emerging markets[8] Dollar and Risk Assets - The dollar faces structural pressures, potentially weakening further if the Fed accelerates rate cuts, which could increase commodity prices and affect capital flows to emerging markets[8] - The stock market may experience a revaluation, with increased risk appetite and capital inflows into high beta assets like tech stocks[8]

Core Insights - The U.S. economy hit a bottom in June and showed signs of improvement in July, following policy shocks in the first half of the year [1] - A wave of debt issuance began in July, gradually absorbing U.S. dollar liquidity [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may start to become evident, and combined with tightening dollar liquidity, this could negatively affect U.S. stock performance in August and September [1] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may quickly bottom out and gradually rise to around 4.8% [1] - From a longer-term perspective, increased fiscal intervention alongside monetary policy may lead to a resumption of dollar liquidity easing, supporting the potential of risk assets [1] - The downward cycle of the dollar is expected to continue [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in the US economy and the impact of various factors such as monetary policy, fiscal measures, and international trade on market performance, suggesting that while there may be short-term adjustments, the long-term outlook for risk assets remains positive due to potential liquidity easing and fiscal support [2][18][25]. Group 1: Economic Conditions - The US economy is believed to have bottomed out in June and showed signs of improvement in July, with a debt issuance wave beginning in July to absorb dollar liquidity [2][18]. - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to gradually manifest, potentially affecting US stock performance negatively in August and September [2][18]. - The 10-year US Treasury yield is projected to quickly bottom out and rise to around 4.8% [2][18]. Group 2: Dollar Index and Liquidity - The dollar index reflects cross-border capital flows, fundamentals, and dollar liquidity, maintaining strength despite the US's fiscal and trade deficits due to ongoing capital inflows driven by AI investments [3][4]. - Following a structural depreciation in April, the dollar index has shown a recovery since May, correlating with the decline in the US-German yield spread [7][9]. - A significant increase in net debt issuance occurred in July, totaling $308.3 billion, compared to only $104.9 billion from April to June [13][15]. Group 3: Inflation and Fiscal Policy - The risk of inflation is increasing as the impact of tariffs on import costs becomes more apparent, alongside strong wage growth and low inflation base effects [18][20]. - The Treasury is expected to issue $1 trillion in net debt from July to September, with long-term debt issuance reaching $470 billion, which may lead to financial risks and market volatility [22][24]. - The potential for a "new accord" between fiscal and monetary policy could lead to renewed dollar liquidity and improved performance of risk assets in the long term [25].

Group 1 - Emerging market stocks have risen due to the potential for Federal Reserve rate cuts and optimistic earnings expectations, with the emerging market stock index up 0.6% for the second consecutive day and nearly 16% year-to-date [1] - Following a sell-off due to poor U.S. economic data, the index rebounded as traders anticipated a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, with an 80% probability, and a one-third chance of another cut by year-end [1] - The rise in U.S. corporate earnings indicates strong global economic activity despite higher tariff threats, with Jefferies' chief economist suggesting that moderate economic slowdown could lead to further easing by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - China's service sector activity unexpectedly accelerated in July, reaching its fastest growth in over a year, indicating resilience during the summer tourism season [2] - In Eastern Europe, Hungary's BUX stock index is nearing historical highs, driven by significant profit growth at OTP Bank in Q2 [2] - Investment institutions are increasingly optimistic about emerging market assets, shifting focus from developed markets like the U.S. to emerging markets such as China, influenced by macroeconomic factors including potential Fed rate cuts and the decline of "American exceptionalism" [2] Group 3 - Short-term market attention on India has increased due to President Trump's renewed focus on the country, particularly regarding India's purchase of Russian oil [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in gold prices to the 3350 level is attributed to two main factors: optimistic expectations regarding international trade and strong economic data [1][3][5]. Group 1: International Trade Impact - Recent trade negotiations among major economies, particularly between China and the U.S., have alleviated concerns about escalating trade tensions, leading to a more optimistic market sentiment [3][4]. - The recovery of China's economy has contributed to positive global economic recovery expectations, resulting in increased risk appetite among investors [3][4]. - As market sentiment becomes more optimistic, funds tend to flow towards risk assets rather than safe-haven assets like gold, contributing to the price decline [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Data Performance - Strong economic data from major economies, including positive U.S. non-farm payroll figures and signs of recovery in manufacturing and services, have bolstered confidence in global economic recovery [4][5]. - Economic performance in other regions, such as China's robust export and manufacturing data and the EU's gradual economic recovery, has further enhanced market risk appetite, diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][5]. - Despite strong economic indicators, gold maintains some support due to ongoing uncertainties in the global economy, such as unresolved supply chain issues and geopolitical risks [5][6]. Group 3: Investor Psychology - Investor sentiment plays a crucial role in gold price fluctuations, with a shift towards risk assets occurring as confidence in economic recovery grows [5][6]. - The perception of gold as a safe-haven asset diminishes when economic recovery signals emerge, leading to a withdrawal of funds from gold [5][6]. - The interplay of market sentiment and economic data is reflected in the recent price adjustments of gold, indicating a temporary market reaction rather than a loss of value [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices will be influenced by the interplay of trade dynamics, economic data, investor sentiment, and policy expectations [7]. - Despite the current price retreat, gold's safe-haven attributes remain relevant due to ongoing geopolitical risks and uneven global economic recovery [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade agreement between the U.S. and Japan, along with optimistic trade talks between the U.S. and the EU, has led to a decline in gold prices as market concerns over trade tensions ease [3]. Group 1: Trade Agreements - U.S. President Trump announced a trade agreement with Japan, reducing auto tariffs from 27.5% to 15% and securing $550 billion in U.S. investments from Japan [3]. - The EU and U.S. are nearing a similar agreement, potentially setting the baseline tariff for EU goods to the U.S. at 15%, avoiding a rise to 30% [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The trade optimism has resulted in a rally in Asian stock markets, with Japan's stock market rising nearly 4%, reaching a new high in over a year [3]. - U.S. stock indices, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, reached closing highs, while the Dow Jones increased by over 1% [3]. Group 3: Impact on Gold Prices - The easing of trade conflict concerns has led to a shift of funds from safe-haven assets like gold to riskier assets, putting downward pressure on gold prices [3]. - Current trading strategies for precious metals suggest maintaining a bullish outlook, with the main contract for gold in Shanghai expected to trade between 760-809 yuan per gram [3].

Group 1 - HSBC's report indicates that risk assets are expected to rise in the second quarter, driven by earnings season, while tariff issues may also become a favorable factor [1] - The market sentiment and positioning indicators from HSBC have issued sell signals, suggesting that optimistic sentiment has an "expiration date" [1][3] - HSBC is examining potential adverse scenarios to enhance bearish sentiment further [1] Group 2 - HSBC identifies two misconceptions regarding tariffs: investors view tariff deadlines as fixed, and the market may welcome potential delays [2] - The sensitivity of the market to tariff news has decreased, similar to the behavior observed during the COVID-19 pandemic, suggesting that recent tariff rate reductions could boost confidence in risk assets [2] - Warning signals have emerged, with short-term sentiment and positioning indicators issuing significant sell signals, marking the most notable signal since mid-2023 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report From July 14th to July 18th, the US inflation data was mixed, with the CPI in June higher than expected and the PPI lower than expected. The independence of the Federal Reserve attracted market attention, and the US dollar index continued to rise weekly. Globally, stocks and commodities rose, while the bond market declined. In China, exports increased year - on - year in June, imports turned positive, and new social financing and RMB loans increased year - on - year. The gap between M2 and M1 narrowed. The stock, bond, and commodity markets all rose weekly. Overall, commodities > stocks > bonds. The market has high expectations for the industry structural optimization brought by the "anti - involution" policy, and the atmosphere in the risk - asset market is positive. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in policy expectations [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Global Major Asset Performance - **Global Stock Market**: Most global major stock markets rose. Asia - Pacific markets led the gains, European stocks performed poorly, and emerging markets outperformed developed markets. The VIX index remained low weekly [8]. - **Global Bond Market**: The impact of tariffs on US inflation was reflected in the data. The yields of medium - and long - term US bonds showed a divergent trend. The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond rose 1BP weekly to 4.44%, and the bond market declined weekly. Globally, credit bonds > high - yield bonds > government bonds [15]. - **Global Foreign Exchange Market**: The US economy remained resilient, the US dollar index rose weekly by 0.60%, most major non - US currencies depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate declined slightly [16]. - **Global Commodity Market**: The EU's new round of sanctions on Russia lowered the price cap on Russian oil, causing international oil prices to decline weekly. The prices of major agricultural products and non - ferrous metals rose, and precious metals fluctuated at high levels [18]. 3.2 Domestic Major Asset Performance - **Domestic Stock Market**: Policy expectations continued to ferment, and major A - share broad - based indexes generally rose. The average daily trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. Growth - style stocks performed prominently. Among sectors, communication and medicine led the gains, while comprehensive finance and real estate underperformed. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69% weekly [21]. - **Domestic Bond Market**: The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 120.11 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively stable, and the bond market fluctuated slightly upward weekly. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [22]. - **Domestic Commodity Market**: The domestic commodity market continued to rise weekly. Among major commodity sectors, oils and fats led the gains [23]. 3.3 Major Asset Price Outlook The market has strong expectations for the industry structural optimization brought by the "anti - involution" policy, and the atmosphere in the risk - asset market is currently positive. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in policy expectations [24].