智通财经APP获悉，上周五，随着美国最高法院驳回了美国总统特朗普的全球关税政策，一只规模最大 的主动管理型新兴市场股票交易所交易基金(ETF)资金流入激增，凸显出市场对风险资产的需求再度升 温。 管理资产规模达203亿美元的泛大西洋投资集团新兴市场股票ETF(Avantis Emerging Markets Equity ETF) 上周五录得4.295亿美元的资金净流入，创下自5月13日以来的最大单日流入规模，并将其总资产推至历 史峰值。资金涌入的同一天，美国最高法院裁定特朗普的全面关税无效，这为该地区股市增添了新的上 行动能。随后，特朗普宣布了一项新的、统一为15%的进口关税，此举取消了此前针对印度、中国和巴 西等国的更高惩罚性关税，实际上为美国的贸易伙伴重置了竞争环境。 "尽管这很可能并非故事的终结，但头条新闻本身无疑是积极因素，政策不确定性的消除应会促使市场 做出正面回应，" Global X Management Co. 高级投资组合经理马尔科姆·多尔森表示。 市场汇编的数据显示，今年迄今，追踪新兴市场股票的ETF已吸引超过350亿美元的资金净流入。从巴 西、哥伦比亚到韩国，多个新兴市场国家的股票基准 ...

来源：凯基证券 美联储内部对降息路径出现巨大分歧。会议纪要显示，部分官员支持通胀回落后降息，但多数委员指出就业下行风险消退，而通胀降温进程缓慢，要求保留 利率指引的「双向」表述，以为通胀高企时加息留出空间。美联储理事米兰（Milan）亦指出，劳动力市场的改善可能意味着今年降息次数减少。随着高息 环境预期延长，流动性收紧忧虑升温，推高融资成本之余，更为风险资产带来估值逆风。 ...

格隆汇2月12日｜Clearbridge Investments的Jeff Schulze在报告中指出，美国一月劳动力市场数据对风险 资产构成利好，因为数据显示就业基础稳固，可进一步推动消费增长。他表示，投资者已将美联储降息 的预期从六月推迟到七月，因为数据表明，当前劳动力市场无需额外货币宽松措施即可维持增长。尽管 利率上行带来压力，但改善的经济增长前景已完全抵消这一影响。Schulze同时提醒，虽然报告整体偏 正面，但需注意一月数据往往受季节性因素影响较大，可能夸大当月就业报告的表现。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Core Viewpoint - Coeur Mining (CDE.N) has experienced significant stock price volatility over the past week, reflecting high trading activity driven by fluctuations in the precious metals market [1] Price Movement Summary - On February 5, the stock price dropped by 7.90% - On February 6, it rebounded with a rise of 12.19% - On February 9, it continued to increase by 7.42% - On February 10, there was a slight pullback of 0.83% - The latest closing price on February 11 was $22.67, resulting in a cumulative increase of 9.25% over the period and a price fluctuation of 22.22% [1] Market Drivers - The recent volatility in the precious metals market is identified as the core driver of the stock's performance - On February 5, a significant drop in Bitcoin led to a reassessment of safe-haven assets, causing both gold and silver prices to decline - Breakthroughs in U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations from February 6 to 7 eased geopolitical tensions, prompting a return of funds to risk assets - On February 9, gold prices rose above the $5,000 mark, further boosting mining stocks - Increased volatility in the U.S. stock market, particularly concerning technology sector capital expenditure plans, has indirectly affected market sentiment [1] Institutional Outlook - Institutions maintain a positive outlook on Coeur Mining, with seven firms setting a target average price of $25.14, indicating potential upside from the current price - 86% of institutions have rated the stock as a buy or hold - Earnings forecasts suggest a significant year-on-year increase in quarterly earnings per share, with a projected growth of 2100% in the second quarter of 2025, reflecting expectations for precious metal prices and improvements in company operations [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant rebound, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 50,000 points, indicating a historical high driven by multiple factors [1] - Chinese concept stocks were favored as representatives of "overseas growth stocks," with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rising by 3.71%, reflecting a re-evaluation of Chinese companies' overseas valuations [1] - The performance of Chinese companies in overseas markets suggests a reassessment of global capital towards China's technology and consumer sectors, although this assessment is contingent on macroeconomic stability and regulatory expectations [6][8] Group 2 - Precious metals and cryptocurrencies saw a dual rebound, with spot gold rising nearly 4% and silver soaring nearly 10%, indicating a return of risk aversion and increased demand for safe-haven assets [2] - The cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility, with over 300,000 liquidations occurring in the past 24 hours, highlighting the risks associated with leveraged trading in extreme market conditions [2] - Oil prices showed marginal increases, with NYMEX crude and Brent crude at $63.5 and $68 respectively, suggesting a stable supply-demand balance without systemic supply tightness [2] Group 3 - The U.S. consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan rose slightly from 56.4 to 57.3, yet remains below last year's level of 64.7, indicating persistent structural issues despite a mild recovery [4] - U.S. sanctions against Iran's oil trade involve multiple entities and vessels, aiming to significantly reduce Iran's oil and petrochemical exports, which may lead to the emergence of alternative markets and shadow networks [4][6] - The indirect negotiations between Iran and the U.S. in Oman mark a significant development, as both sides seek to balance high-pressure tactics with the need for diplomatic engagement [5][6] Group 4 - The current market dynamics illustrate a search for growth opportunities globally, with investments flowing into sectors like AI and semiconductors, driving the rise of U.S. stocks and related sectors [6] - The geopolitical landscape continues to reshape energy and trade channels, with short-term impacts but potential long-term strategic adjustments for involved nations [6] - For Chinese companies and domestic institutions, the enthusiasm of overseas capital for Chinese concept stocks presents both opportunities for financing and valuation recovery, emphasizing the need for robust performance and transparent governance [8]

贵金属市场剧烈波动是核心驱动因素。2月5日，比特币暴跌引发避险资产重估，黄金白银同步下挫；2 月6日至7日，美伊核谈判出现突破性进展，缓解地缘紧张，推动资金回流风险资产，贵金属板块大幅反 弹；2月9日，金价收复5000美元关口，进一步提振矿业股。此外，美股大盘波动加剧，道指与纳指分 化，科技股资本支出计划引发市场担忧。 机构观点 机构对科尔黛伦矿业维持积极展望。截至2026年2月，7家机构目标均价25.14美元，较当前价有上行空 间；86%机构给予买入或增持评级。盈利预测显示，2025年季度每股收益同比增幅显著，如第二季度预 测增长2100%，反映市场对贵金属价格及公司运营改善的预期。 以上内容基于公开资料整理，不构成投资建议。 经济观察网科尔黛伦矿业(CDE.N)近7天股价波动显著，受贵金属市场及全球风险情绪影响。2月5日， 贵金属板块集体回调，该股跌超7%；2月6日股价反弹，单日涨幅达12.19%；2月7日随美股暴力反弹， 涨超12%；2月9日继续上涨7.42%，受黄金价格回升提振；2月10日小幅回调0.83%。区间(2月5日至10 日)累计涨幅10.07%，振幅21.11%，成交活跃。 近期事件 ...

Group 1 - The bond market sentiment has improved due to the central bank's support and a weak performance of risk assets, with a net purchase of 100 billion yuan in government bonds in January, slightly exceeding market expectations [1] - The central bank's actions, including structural interest rate cuts and significant long-term liquidity injections, have stabilized market expectations, with a total of 1.1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity provided in January, equivalent to a 0.5 basis point reserve requirement cut [1] - The 10-year government bond yield has dipped to around 1.8%, indicating a warm sentiment in the bond market [1] Group 2 - The supply-demand gap is widening, with ongoing structural differentiation and weak internal momentum, while prices are stabilizing, supporting nominal growth recovery in the first half of the year [2] - Attention is needed on the impact of global policy synchronization on manufacturing cycles and exports, as well as the effects of ongoing declines in the real estate sector on household balance sheets [2] - Seasonal performance indicates that years with a later Spring Festival typically see stronger macro data in January and February, with potential impacts on production and investment data in the first quarter [2] Group 3 - The upcoming National People's Congress is expected to release policy signals, with local GDP growth targets for 2026 being adjusted downward, indicating a potential reduction in national economic growth targets [3] - The expectation of a downward adjustment in incremental policy strength may have a positive impact on the bond market, although medium to long-term macro policies remain supportive [3] - The bond market is likely to see increased volatility post-holiday, with institutional investors favoring "holding bonds over the holiday," which may lead to a relatively stable bond market performance [3] Group 4 - Weak domestic demand and loose liquidity are the main supports for the bond market, with improved supply-demand dynamics for local government bonds driving the current bond market recovery [5] - The expectation of stable liquidity and the historical calendar effect of the Spring Festival suggest that institutional willingness to "hold bonds over the holiday" will increase, potentially leading to slight price increases in the bond market [5] - Post-holiday, the bond market may experience differentiation and increased volatility, influenced by macroeconomic conditions, risk asset rebounds, and policy signals [5]

伦敦现货黄金经历了上下近20%的大幅波动后，接下来行情将会如何走？中科智库经济专家、天投资本国际策略师霍冬勇认为，黄金短期内将会大幅震 荡，建议投资者先不要急于抄底，等市场波动幅度降低后，黄金ETF等产品将会比金矿股更加稳健，目前看黄金中长期的投资逻辑依然维持，但也要关注 美联储主席换人之后，如何配合总统特朗普的政策变化。 黄金本质上属于避险资产，然而任何资产价格出现大幅波动时，其风险属性将随之显现，在经 历近期急剧下跌行情后，预计短期价格波动或将延续。此次回落的重要支撑位置大致位于4300美元/盎司至4500美元/盎司区间，投资者当前不宜急于抄 底。从中线维度观察，黄金向上趋势仍未发生根本性改变，此次价格大幅回落并未扭转基本面支撑因素，包括美元汇率持续维持弱势、国际市场对美国国 债及美元资产信赖度下降，以及全球利率环境维持下行态势，这些因素均继续对黄金价格构成有力支撑，等行情稳定后，黄金ETF跟踪金价走势，相比金 矿股而言是更稳健的选择。 | W | 伦敦金现 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | ...

◎记者 张骄 近期，国际贵金属市场风云变幻，黄金、白银在暴跌后迅速反弹。 伦敦现货黄金曾重回5000美元/盎司，但在2月5日又急转直下，一度失守4800美元/盎司关口。伦敦现货 白银近期波动更为剧烈，单日盘中一度大跌超30%，也一度大涨超10%。2月5日，伦敦银高台跳水，盘 中重挫超17%，随后跌幅有所收窄。 如此大涨大跌，凸显出贵金属领域当前的极端不确定性。不少市场参与者认为，引发本轮走势的"沃什 交易"逻辑仍未完全消化，金银价格尚未企稳，下行风险犹存，市场正处于激烈的博弈状态。 当下，短期和长期投资者的策略差异和投资故事，进一步勾勒出当前市场的结构特征。 杠杆散户遭阻击 偏"鹰派"的凯文·沃什被提名为下任美联储主席的消息给市场泼了一盆冷水，但风险警报在此前就已拉 响。复盘来看，华西证券首席经济学家刘郁在研报中称，贵金属的下跌始于提名消息落地前（1月29日 晚），更多是多头过度拥挤后的修正。 "做梦都是金价跌了。"黄金投资"新玩家"张女士向上证报记者表示，她在1010元/克的价位补仓黄金 后，眼见着金价这两天涨到1100元以上，果断止盈。"暂时落袋为安，等回调再买，相当于在黄金上做 T了"。 去年尝过"甜头 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant upward trend on February 3, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4067.74 points, up 1.29%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 2.19% [2] - Over 4800 stocks in the market saw gains, with the photovoltaic industry chain showing strong performance, particularly in the space photovoltaic sector, where stocks like Aotewi and Zerun New Energy hit the daily limit with a 20% increase [2] - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 3.92%, closing at 54720.66 points, while the Korean Composite Index surged by 6.84%, marking the largest single-day increase since March 2020 [2] Commodity Futures - Most domestic commodity futures contracts closed lower during the day, with notable increases in palladium (up over 8%), polysilicon (up over 6%), and lithium carbonate (up over 4%) [2] - Conversely, silver futures dropped over 16%, tin fell over 6%, and crude oil decreased by over 4% [2] Bond Market - On February 3, government bond futures mostly rose, with the 10-year main contract increasing by 0.02% and the 5-year contract up by 0.06% [3] - The China Convertible Bond Index rose by 2.63%, with significant gains in individual convertible bonds such as Baichuan Convertible Bond (up 17.34%) [3] Fund Flow - On February 3, the top ten stocks by net inflow included Aerospace Development, Huasheng Tiancheng, and Kweichow Moutai, with Aerospace Development receiving a net inflow of 2.031 billion yuan [4] Institutional Insights - Huaxi Securities noted that after a rapid increase, the safe-haven appeal of precious metals has diminished, suggesting that the recent sharp decline is a correction of overheated sentiment, but precious metals still hold value for allocation [5] - CICC indicated that the A-share market is experiencing a natural demand for consolidation after a quick rise, but the underlying factors supporting market performance remain unchanged, suggesting conditions for a potential upward trend [5]