[Table_I 日期 ndustry] : shzqdatemark 2025年11月25日 | [Table_Author] 分析师: | 张河生 | | --- | --- | | Tel: | 021-53686158 | | E-mail: | zhanghesheng@shzq.com | | SAC 编号: | S0870523100004 | [Table_ReportInfo] 相关报告： 《美联储或再次转鸽》 ——2025 年 11月 18日 《A 股建议关注困境反转的周期行业》 ——2025 年 11月 11日 《A 股或维持高位震荡，债市与黄金短期波 动》 ——2025 年 11月 03日 延迟的数据，推迟的降息 ——固收&宏观周报（20251117-20251123） [◼Table_Summary] 主要观点 美股三大指数与恒生指数均下跌。 过去一周（20251117-20251123），纳斯达克、标普 500 指数与 道琼斯工业平均指数分别变化-2.74%、-1.95%与-1.91%，纳斯达克中 国科技股指数变化-6.06%；同时期恒生指数变化-5.09%。 A 股普跌。 过去一 ...

宏观周报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 12 月 FOMC 降息预期回升 风险资产迎来修复 核心观点 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 焦鹏飞 从业资格号：F03122184 投资咨询号：Z0023260 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 海外方面，美国9月非农新增11.9万虽超预期，但失业率升 至4.4%并创四年新高；10月非农与CPI均因政府停摆取消 发布，11月数据延至12月FOMC后公布，使市场对官员表 态异常敏感。近期美联储内部分歧加剧，降息预期频繁摇 摆：此前一系列官员鹰派讲话令12月降息概率大幅回落、 风险资产持续承压，但上周五"美联储三把手"威廉姆斯 重申近期仍可能降 ...

国泰君安期货·有色及贵金属 周报合集 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 1 CONTENTS 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 2 01 黄金：高位震荡 白银：风险资产属性催化下跌 02 03 铜：短期价格震荡，但长期消费驱动价格上涨逻辑仍存 铝：宏观风偏超预期承压，关注下方支撑 氧化铝：基本面压力未解，盘面趁势下行 04 铸造铝合金：风偏走弱，短期价格承压 05 锌：供需相对平衡，价格短期震荡 06 铅：再生供应增加，且炒作题材弱化，价格偏弱震荡 07 锡：宏观拉动价 ...

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：高位震荡；白银：风险资产属性催化下跌 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银中性 价格区间：900-950元/克、11400-12400元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升0.04%，伦敦银回落5.97%。金银比从前周的78.4回升至83.1，10年期TIPS回升至1.82%，10年期名义利率回落至 4.06%（2年期3.62%），美元指数录得100.15。 ◆ 本周白银大幅回落，主要受到海外风险偏好回落以及权益下跌影响，而其本质在于AI投资热潮搭建起来的高估值科技公司是否能兑现 回报。我们上周提及，在近期风险偏好不稳且静待美国数据公布之时，白银脱离宏观商品独自上涨的可能性较小，且目前看 ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【11月23日，报告指比特币下跌或预示风险资产年底疲软】Bloomberg Intelligence最新报告显示，近期 比特币下跌且跌破重要支撑位，似预示风险资产年底表现疲软。该指标目前与标普500指数波动率呈反 向关系，但2026年可能有动能增长。因当前市场跌势或已触底，待华尔街仓位调整结束，后续上涨空间 较大。 ...

美银全球基金经理调查：看涨仓位对风险资产而言是逆风而非顺风，极低的3.7%现金水平是“卖出信号” ；全球投资者自2月25日以来最超配股票，自2022年9月以来最超配商品；基金经理认为企业在近20年来首次“过度投资” ；54%的受访者认为长期持有七巨头是最拥挤交易，45%的受访者认为AI泡沫是最大尾部风险；若美联储不降息，过热情况将进一步修正；新兴市场和银行最容易受到第四季度正常避险行情的影响。 ...

Market Overview - Asian stock markets continue to decline, with losses greater than those in the US markets, as A-shares drop by 1%, Hong Kong stocks by 2%, and Japanese stocks by 3% [2] - The Asian stock market has broken below the 50-day moving average, signaling an accelerated bearish trend, with the S&P 500 index also falling below this average for the first time in 139 days [2] - Bitcoin has plummeted by 5%, falling below $90,000, indicating a withdrawal of funds from high-risk assets [2] Market Sentiment - The current market downturn is characterized by a collective contraction rather than a reaction to bad news, akin to a driver instinctively braking before entering a tunnel [3] - The market is experiencing a threefold pressure of fear, fatigue, and anticipation, with concerns about Nvidia's earnings, strong non-farm payrolls leading to potential interest rate hikes, and the sustainability of AI valuations [2] - Investors are waiting for key events such as Nvidia's earnings report, non-farm payroll data, and the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes, as well as clear signals regarding interest rate cuts in December [2] Investment Strategy - The company suggests that this week is a "turning point week" rather than an observation week, with a low probability of sideways movement in various assets including the US dollar, A-shares, Chinese government bonds, US stocks, gold, silver, oil, and Bitcoin [4] - Insights into the 2026 outlook for China indicate that the secret to profitability will be revealed, alongside an analysis of a key action by the People's Bank of China that may signal the onset of a bull market [4]

Core Points - The U.S. stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Dow Jones dropping over 500 points, marking a decrease of approximately 1.2% [1] - The S&P 500 index has fallen over 2% in November, ending a six-month streak of gains, and is down more than 3% from its historical peak [1] - The Nasdaq index has also retreated over 5% from its record high [1] Group 1: Major Tech Stocks - Most large tech stocks saw declines, with Micron Technology down nearly 2%, Nvidia and Apple dropping over 1.8%, and Meta down 1.2% [2] - Tesla was an exception, rising by 1.1%, while Google saw a notable increase, initially rising 6% to reach a historical high before closing with a gain of just over 3% [2] - Berkshire Hathaway, led by Warren Buffett, established a position in Google during the third quarter [2] Group 2: Chinese Concept Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.21%, with notable declines in several Chinese concept stocks: Yatsen E-commerce down nearly 21%, Manbang down over 11%, and XPeng down over 10% [2] - Other Chinese stocks like Li Auto and NIO also experienced declines, while Alibaba saw a gain of 2.5% [2] Group 3: Commodities and Cryptocurrencies - The FTSE China A50 index futures fell by 0.52%, and precious metals, including gold and silver, saw significant declines, with gold dropping nearly 2% to a low of $4006.80 per ounce [3] - Bitcoin experienced a sharp decline, falling below $92,000, while Ethereum also dropped below $3,000, leading to over 160,000 liquidations worth $851 million in the past 24 hours [3] - The tightening liquidity of the U.S. dollar and changing Federal Reserve policy expectations are cited as key factors impacting high-volatility assets like cryptocurrencies [3][4]

Market Overview - On November 18, US stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones falling over 500 points, a decrease of approximately 1.2% [1] - The S&P 500 index has dropped over 2% since November, ending a six-month streak of gains, and is down more than 3% from its historical peak [1] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq has fallen over 5% from its record high [1] Stock Performance - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Micron Technology down nearly 2%, Nvidia and Apple down over 1.8%, and Meta down 1.2%. Tesla, however, rose by 1.1% [2] - Google was a notable exception, initially rising 6% to reach a new all-time high before closing with a gain of just over 3%. Berkshire Hathaway reportedly built a position in Google during Q3 [2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.21%, with significant declines in several Chinese stocks, including Yatsen Global down nearly 21% and XPeng down over 10% [2] Commodity Market - Precious metals and base metals experienced widespread declines, with spot gold dropping nearly 2% to a low of $4006.80 per ounce before closing around $4045 [4] - LME aluminum, nickel, and lead all fell over 1% [4] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a reduced probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, now at 42.9% [4] Cryptocurrency Market - Cryptocurrencies faced significant declines, with Bitcoin dropping below $92,000 and Ethereum also falling below $3,000 [4][5] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 160,000 traders were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $851 million [5] - The recent drop in Bitcoin prices is attributed to tightening dollar liquidity and changing Federal Reserve policy expectations, leading to increased selling pressure on high-volatility assets [5][6] Risk Assets - An unusual phenomenon observed is the simultaneous decline of risk assets like Bitcoin and traditional safe-haven assets like gold, which raises concerns [6]

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin has experienced significant volatility, reaching a peak of $126,251 on October 6, only to drop below $94,000 by November 17, erasing all gains for the year due to tightening dollar liquidity and changing market conditions [1][2][3] Market Dynamics - The recent decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a combination of macro liquidity tightening, decreased market risk appetite, and cyclical factors within the cryptocurrency industry [2][3] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. fiscal and monetary policy has led to a cautious trading environment, affecting both risk and safe-haven assets [3][4] Institutional Involvement - Institutional investors have been a key support for Bitcoin's price, but recent outflows indicate a potential shift as macro liquidity tightens and political uncertainties rise [5][6] - The reliance on institutional capital highlights the fragility of Bitcoin's narrative as a hedge against inflation, especially given its high volatility compared to traditional assets like gold [6][7] Regulatory Environment - The evolving regulatory landscape and the diminishing expectations of supportive policies from the Trump administration have contributed to market participants' cautious outlook [3][4] - The need for a robust regulatory framework and the maturation of ETF channels are seen as essential for Bitcoin's long-term viability [6][7] Correlation with Other Assets - The simultaneous decline of Bitcoin and gold suggests a breakdown of traditional safe-haven logic, driven by liquidity constraints and a strong dollar [8][9] - The current market environment indicates a deeper liquidity pressure test, where all asset classes are experiencing increased correlation and simultaneous declines [10]