本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【澳洲联储降息并下调增长与生产率前景，核心通胀可控留宽松空间】澳洲联储如期实施降息操作，同 时下调了增长预期，还调低了生产率前景。这一举措意味着该国2700万居民的生活水平和收入或出现下 降。不过，澳洲联储仍维持核心通胀放缓及失业率稳定的预期，为进一步降息留出了空间。 在季度 《货币政策声明》中，2025年GDP增速预期从5月的2.1%下调至1.7%。与此同时，鉴于总供给和总需求 预期均被下调，央行对通胀和劳动力市场的预测保持不变。6季度消费者价格指数为2.1%，预计到明年 年中将升至3.1%的峰值，随后在2027年底回落至2.5%。这一水平处于央行2%-3%长期目标区间的中 点，为货币政策放松创造了条件。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman, Philip Lowe, indicates a gradual approach to interest rate cuts, emphasizing a measured monetary policy response amid slight labor market easing and rising unemployment concerns [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The RBA is adopting a restrained and gradual approach to monetary policy easing, which is deemed appropriate given the current economic conditions [1] - Lowe reassures that the recent increase in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.3% in June is not surprising and aligns with expectations of a labor market slowdown [1] - The RBA continues to evaluate the appropriateness of a gradual easing of monetary policy, with second-quarter inflation data potentially being slightly stronger than anticipated [1] Group 2: Inflation and Employment - The long-term strategy of the RBA is to bring inflation back to target levels while preserving labor market growth as much as possible [1] - Lowe suggests that Australia's interest rates are unlikely to rise as sharply as in other economies, indicating that significant rate cuts may not be necessary during the easing process [1]

Core Insights - Rental growth in major Australian cities is slowing, indicating potential further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank, leading to improved financial conditions for tenants in the new fiscal year [1][2] Rental Market Overview - According to Domain's Q2 rental report, rental prices in major cities have either slowed or stagnated, with no change in the median rent for houses and apartments combined [1] - Nationally, rental prices have stabilized for the first time since 2019 after a nearly 40% increase post-pandemic, marking a turning point in the rental cycle [2] Regional Rental Changes - Sydney's median house rent saw a slight increase of 0.6% in the quarter, while Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, and Hobart remained unchanged [2] - For apartments, Sydney recorded a 2.1% quarterly change, while Melbourne's rents remained stable [2] Economic Implications - The slowdown in rental growth is seen as significant for macroeconomic policy, particularly for the Australian Federal Reserve, as rental inflation is a key indicator of overall economic inflation [2] - Analysts suggest that the current rental market dynamics could lead to a more favorable environment for tenants in the upcoming fiscal year, with increased vacancy rates providing more options [7] Factors Influencing Rental Trends - The affordability limit has been reached, with wage growth not keeping pace, leading to a softening demand as households opt for shared living arrangements [5] - Landlords are less inclined to pass on costs to tenants due to recent interest rate cuts, which may not negatively impact real estate investors seeking tax benefits [5] - Population growth slowdown is also contributing to the easing of rental prices [8]

Core Viewpoint - Fidelity International reports that Asian central banks have room to ease monetary policy to mitigate economic impacts from trade tensions [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - Asia's reliance on trade makes the region vulnerable to tariff tensions, prompting central banks to consider easing monetary policies [1] - The potential for interest rate cuts and currency appreciation may boost demand for local currency bonds in the region [1] Group 2: Currency Demand - As investors seek currencies outside the US dollar, demand for Asian currencies is likely to rebound [1] - Several regions in Asia stand to benefit from this shift in currency demand [1]

美国利率期货市场消化的未来两年放松货币政策的步伐快于美联储上周公布的最新预测，在美国对伊朗 发动军事打击给经济增长构成又一威胁后，这种观点得到了巩固。追踪有担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)的 期货交易员押注，美联储在2026年降息的幅度将超过上周三其政策会议结束时公布的预测。 ...

新华财经北京6月9日电（王柘）上周（2025年6月3日至6月6日）跨月后资金面维持宽松，央行预告10000亿元买断式逆回购操作呵护流 动性，收益率曲线整体下行，短端领涨，10年期国债收益率走低约2BP至1.65%。中美元首通话，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议也将于6月8 日至13日在英国举行，释放关税方面积极信号，提振市场风险情绪，债市反应较此前迟钝。 6月同业存单到期规模达4.2万亿元，较5月多增1.7万亿元，为近年来单月到期规模峰值。本周有逾1.2万亿元同业存单到期，单周规模为 2014年以来最大。除央行态度外，6月季末财政支出强度提升、理财资金季节性回流等将在一定程度上缓解银行存款流失压力。 行情回顾 2025年6月6日，中债国债到期收益率1年期、2年期、3年期、5年期、7年期、10年期、30年期、50年期较2025年5月30日分别变 动-4.5BP、-3.6BP、-4.23BP、-1.81BP、-3.25BP、-1.65BP、-2BP、-5BP。 | | | 中债国债收益率曲线(到期)$ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 标准期限(年) | 5月30日 | 6月6日 | 变动B ...

金十数据5月23日讯，澳新银行研究团队在一份报告中表示，到2025年底，印度央行可能会再降息三 次。他们写道，考虑到通胀目前不是一个问题，目前低迷的经济增长可能意味着印度央行将需要继续放 松货币政策。他们补充说，如果1-3月份的GDP数据低于预期，印度央行可能不得不下调当前财年6.5% 的增长预期。 澳新银行：印度央行可能在2025年再降息三次 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has determined that inflation risks have become more balanced, with inflation remaining within target range and upward risks appearing to diminish [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The RBA has decided to ease monetary policy in light of expected inflation remaining near target levels [1] - This decision is aimed at reducing the restrictive nature of monetary policy [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The RBA maintains a cautious outlook due to increased uncertainty regarding both aggregate demand and supply [1]

周一（5月19日）欧洲时段，欧元兑美元小幅上涨并重新站上1.1200关口，截至发稿前欧元/美元汇率报 1.1224，涨幅0.54%。尽管市场情绪偏谨慎，但经济和财政担忧引发的持续抛售美元支撑了欧元/美元。 目前焦点仍集中在美联储官员的讲话和贸易新闻标题上，以寻找新的交易动力。 欧洲央行管委会成员Martins Kazaks表示，如果通胀在今年回落至2%的基准预期得以实现，欧元区的降 息周期已接近尾声。但他同时警告称，由于全球贸易形势仍不明朗，政策制定者不应急于求成。 投资者押注的是，由于通胀朝着目标回落、加上关税带来的经济逆风，欧洲央行将进一步放松货币政 策。Martins Kazaks称市场预期是"适当的"。他本周早些时候曾表示，认为政策制定者在下次政策会议 上有理由再次降息。但他也强调，这一决定将基于获得的数据。 从日线级别，欧元对美元汇率在近期高位震荡后下破日线支撑，同时在下破后价格持续压制在日线阻 力，对于波段上短线于1.1240偏空对待，只有后续上破后才会转涨，否则右侧空对待。从短期四小时级 别看，近几日欧元走势维持在震荡格局，价格多空均没有延续，所以还是关注上方日线阻力得失。第一 价格不破日线阻力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The limited impact of tariffs on the economy reflects market expectations for a loosening of the Bank of England's monetary policy [1] Group 1 - The Chief Economist of the Bank of England, Huw Pill, highlighted that the economic effects of tariffs are not as significant as anticipated [1] - Market expectations regarding the Bank of England's monetary policy adjustments are influencing perceptions of tariff impacts [1]