上周五（9月19日）税期影响渐退，资金面边际转松，当日央行净投放1243亿元。本周一14天逆回购操 作重启，资金面延续暖意，主要资金价格小幅下行，当日央行净投放2605亿元。本周二资金面维持均衡 态势，主要资金价格继续小幅下行，当日央行净回笼109亿元。本周三央行延续净回笼，资金面边际收 敛，主要资金价格有所抬升，央行当日回笼170亿元。本周四受季末影响，周四资金面延续收敛，资金 利率整体上行，当日央行净投放2965亿元。本周四（9月25日）相较于上周五，DR001上行1bp收于 1.47%，DR007上行9bp收于 1.60%。 海外方面，欧元区9月制造业PMI初值49.5，为3个月低位，预期50.7，8月终值50.7；综合PMI初值 51.2，预期51.1，8月终值51；服务业PMI初值51.4，预期50.5，8月终值50.5。美联储主席鲍威尔表示， 联储的双重使命——充分就业和价格稳定均面临威胁，两面的风险意味着没有毫无风险的政策路径；重 申合理预期是关税一次性推升价格，称要确保关税不会持续影响；无法再认为美国劳动力市场是稳健 的，现在的确看到劳动力市场实质性疲软的现象；金融稳定的风险并未增加；银行业资 ...

纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年12月黄金期价16日上涨8.5美元，收于每盎司3727.5美 元，涨幅为0.23%。 美国商务部16日发布的数据显示，美国8月份零售额增长0.6%，7月份经修正后增长0.6%。此前经济学 家预计8月份零售额将增长0.2%。 技术层面，12月黄金期货多头拥有强劲的整体近期技术优势。多头的下一个上行价格目标是突破3800美 元的坚固阻力位。空头的下一个近期下行价格目标是跌破3600美元的坚固技术支撑位。 当天12月交割的白银期货价格下跌8.2美分，收于每盎司42.880美元，跌幅为0.19%。 资讯编辑：王芳琴 021-66896877 资讯监督：乐卫扬 021-26093827 资讯投诉：陈跃进 021-26093100 在美联储未来几个月将放松货币政策预期的鼓舞下，当天早盘金价再创历史新高，白银价格也创下14年 来新高，之后一些短期期货交易员温和获利回吐，收盘时金价保持微涨，白银价格小幅下跌。 美联储公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议当日上午召开，17日下午结束。会后美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔 将发表声明和举行新闻发布会。市场普遍预计美联储将降息25个基点。 外界普遍 ...

此次确认投票的时间安排异常紧凑，为米兰参与FOMC会议创造了可能，但同时也带来了程序挑战。 特朗普的经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）正式加入美联储担任理事。 当地时间周一晚间，特朗普提名的美联储理事人选米兰在参议院通过最终投票表决，确认出任理事一 职。这意味着他将能够赶上周二开始的联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）议息会议，并拥有投票权。 市场普遍预期，美联储将在本次会议上降息25个基点。然而，米兰的加入可能会改变投票格局，他与美 联储理事Christopher Waller等部分官员，被认为可能支持50个基点或更大幅度的降息，与白宫的呼吁相 符。 这一任命正值特朗普政府持续向美联储施压、要求其大幅放松货币政策之际。与此同时，白宫还在通过 法律途径试图阻止另一位理事莉莎·库克（Lisa Cook）参加本周的会议。 米兰将填补Adriana Kugler于8月离职后留下的空缺，任期至2026年1月结束。 确认就职次日就投票？史上最快 一般来说，从参议院批准到正式宣誓就职并坐上FOMC会议桌的整个流程，通常需要数天时间。若米兰 能在周二会议开始前完成所有程序，他将创下一项历史纪录。 据《巴伦周刊》分 ...

Group 1 - Concerns regarding sovereign debt risks in major developed economies are rising, driven by increased government spending and fiscal expansions in the US, Europe, and the UK [2][3] - The yield curves of major economies are steepening due to long-term concerns about sovereign debt, reflecting higher credit risk premiums [3] - Global debt leverage is likely to decline, which may constrain future economic growth and point towards a downward trend in interest rates [4] Group 2 - The potential for gradual interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may open up further space for monetary policy easing by the People's Bank of China [5] - A decrease in short-term interest rates could lead to a corresponding decline in medium to long-term rates, potentially steepening the yield curve [5][6] - The supply of government bonds is expected to decrease in the coming months, which may also contribute to a decline in long-term interest rates [5]

肯《商业日报》8月13日报道，肯央行（CBK）连续第七次下调利率，将基准 利率从9.75%下调至9.5%。在过去一年中，肯央行将基准利率下调了350个基点 （2024年8月为13% ），目前处于2023年5月以来的最低水平。尽管这些举措预 示着借贷成本的下降，但商业银行贷款利率仍然维持较高水平。肯央行在声明 中表示，仍有进一步放松货币政策的空间，以增强之前的政策效果，推动商业 银行向私营部门放贷，刺激经济活动，同时确保通胀预期和汇率稳定。央行表 示，对私营部门信贷增长率从6月份的2.2%升至7月的3.3%，较2025年1月2.9% 有所回升。 （原标题：肯央行利率下调至9.5%） ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation, maintaining a loose monetary environment with a net injection of 696 billion yuan on August 8 [1] - The interbank liquidity showed slight fluctuations, with the central bank net withdrawing 432.8 billion yuan on August 11 and 46.1 billion yuan on August 12, while maintaining overall low funding rates [1] - The DR001 and DR007 rates increased slightly to 1.32% and 1.44% respectively on August 14, indicating marginal upward pressure on short-term interest rates [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Financial Data - In July 2025, the total RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, which is a reduction of 310 billion yuan year-on-year, while social financing increased by 1.16 trillion yuan, up by 389.3 billion yuan year-on-year [3] - The M1 and M2 growth rates were reported at 5.6% and 8.8% respectively, indicating a weak overall financial data performance [3] - The stock market showed strong performance since July, but the bond market faced some short-term disturbances without altering the fundamental economic landscape [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The National Development Bank ETF (159650) is highlighted as a viable investment option due to its high credit rating, large scale, and good liquidity, making it suitable for short-duration allocations [3]

肯央行声明称，该国经济增长显现出韧性。数据显示，肯尼亚2025年第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)同比 增长4.9%，反映出该国农业的良好表现以及工业活动的复苏，尤其是建筑业的发展。预计肯尼亚今年 第二季度的经济发展将持续改善，该国2025年和2026年GDP增速有望分别达到5.2%和5.4%。 肯央行称，该国通胀率仍处于目标范围内，因此央行仍有进一步放松货币政策的空间。肯尼亚货币政策 委员会将密切监测此次降息的影响以及全球和国内经济发展情况，随时准备在必要时采取进一步行动。 (完) 中新社北京8月13日电 内罗毕消息：肯尼亚央行当地时间12日发表声明，将基准贷款利率下调25个基点 至9.5%，以促进该国私营部门向银行贷款并刺激经济活动。 据肯尼亚《旗帜报》报道，央行此次降息是因该国短期内通胀情况良好且经济增长前景乐观。肯尼亚央 行数据显示，该国7月份总体通胀率为4.1%，尽管高于今年6月的3.8%，但仍低于目标区间2.5%至7.5% 的中点。在食品价格下跌、能源价格保持稳定以及汇率持续稳定的支撑下，预计短期内肯尼亚总体通胀 率仍将低于目标区间中点。 ...

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【澳洲联储降息并下调增长与生产率前景，核心通胀可控留宽松空间】澳洲联储如期实施降息操作，同 时下调了增长预期，还调低了生产率前景。这一举措意味着该国2700万居民的生活水平和收入或出现下 降。不过，澳洲联储仍维持核心通胀放缓及失业率稳定的预期，为进一步降息留出了空间。 在季度 《货币政策声明》中，2025年GDP增速预期从5月的2.1%下调至1.7%。与此同时，鉴于总供给和总需求 预期均被下调，央行对通胀和劳动力市场的预测保持不变。6季度消费者价格指数为2.1%，预计到明年 年中将升至3.1%的峰值，随后在2027年底回落至2.5%。这一水平处于央行2%-3%长期目标区间的中 点，为货币政策放松创造了条件。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Chairman, Philip Lowe, indicates a gradual approach to interest rate cuts, emphasizing a measured monetary policy response amid slight labor market easing and rising unemployment concerns [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The RBA is adopting a restrained and gradual approach to monetary policy easing, which is deemed appropriate given the current economic conditions [1] - Lowe reassures that the recent increase in the unemployment rate from 4.1% to 4.3% in June is not surprising and aligns with expectations of a labor market slowdown [1] - The RBA continues to evaluate the appropriateness of a gradual easing of monetary policy, with second-quarter inflation data potentially being slightly stronger than anticipated [1] Group 2: Inflation and Employment - The long-term strategy of the RBA is to bring inflation back to target levels while preserving labor market growth as much as possible [1] - Lowe suggests that Australia's interest rates are unlikely to rise as sharply as in other economies, indicating that significant rate cuts may not be necessary during the easing process [1]

Core Insights - Rental growth in major Australian cities is slowing, indicating potential further interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank, leading to improved financial conditions for tenants in the new fiscal year [1][2] Rental Market Overview - According to Domain's Q2 rental report, rental prices in major cities have either slowed or stagnated, with no change in the median rent for houses and apartments combined [1] - Nationally, rental prices have stabilized for the first time since 2019 after a nearly 40% increase post-pandemic, marking a turning point in the rental cycle [2] Regional Rental Changes - Sydney's median house rent saw a slight increase of 0.6% in the quarter, while Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide, Canberra, and Hobart remained unchanged [2] - For apartments, Sydney recorded a 2.1% quarterly change, while Melbourne's rents remained stable [2] Economic Implications - The slowdown in rental growth is seen as significant for macroeconomic policy, particularly for the Australian Federal Reserve, as rental inflation is a key indicator of overall economic inflation [2] - Analysts suggest that the current rental market dynamics could lead to a more favorable environment for tenants in the upcoming fiscal year, with increased vacancy rates providing more options [7] Factors Influencing Rental Trends - The affordability limit has been reached, with wage growth not keeping pace, leading to a softening demand as households opt for shared living arrangements [5] - Landlords are less inclined to pass on costs to tenants due to recent interest rate cuts, which may not negatively impact real estate investors seeking tax benefits [5] - Population growth slowdown is also contributing to the easing of rental prices [8]