高盛最新预计，美联储将在12月的会议上实施连续第三次降息。该行认为，通胀放缓以及劳动力市场降 温，为政策制定者进一步放松货币政策提供了空间。 "明年的风险倾向于进行更多次降息，因为核心通 胀方面的消息一直有利，而就业市场的恶化……可能难以通过我们预期的温和的周期性增长加速来遏 制。"高盛还预计，美联储2026年再降息两次，分别在3月和6月，最终将联邦基金利率降至3.00%– 3.25%的区间。 该行的基准观点是，美联储将越来越相信，通胀放缓的趋势将持续下去，货币政策无需 继续维持在明显具有限制性的水平。 11月25日，金价上摸4152美元后回落， 黄金期货价格目前交投于4140美元附近，黄金相关产品涨幅收 窄，截至14点41分，黄金ETF华夏（518850）涨1.68%，黄金股ETF（159562）涨1.86%，有色金属ETF 基金（516650）涨2.04%。 相关分析指出，得益于持续强劲的投资需求，黄金市场当前正试探每盎司4150美元附近的阻力关口，对 金价起到较强支撑，避免了剧烈下滑。相比之下，虽然黄金价格较上个月创下的约4360美元每盎司的历 史高点回落了大约6%，但这种回调显得相对温和，并未引发恐慌 ...

Core Viewpoints - The market style is expected to rebalance in November, potentially returning to a "dumbbell" structure, as liquidity remains relatively loose and external factors like the Fed's interest rate expectations may fluctuate [1][22]. Economic Data - China's October exports fell by 1.1% year-on-year, below the expected 3% growth, while imports grew by 1%. The trade surplus was $90.07 billion, slightly down from the previous month's $90.45 billion. For the first ten months of 2025, total trade value reached $520.46 billion, a 2.7% year-on-year increase [3][4]. - The decline in exports is attributed to a high base from the previous year and a slowing global economy, compounded by increased tariffs from the U.S. [3]. Equity Market Insights - Morgan Asset Management indicates that the global macro environment remains favorable for risk assets, supported by healthy consumer balance sheets, expectations of gradual monetary easing from the Fed, and ongoing fiscal stimulus [5]. - CITIC Securities suggests that resource products may become a new investment focus due to global monetary easing and supply-demand gaps, highlighting strategic resources like rare earths and lithium as having long-term investment value [6]. - China Europe Fund emphasizes the importance of cyclical stocks and technology resonance, suggesting that the market's current valuation recovery is nearly complete, with future growth driven by earnings [7]. Industry Research - CITIC Securities highlights that 2026 will be a critical year for the recovery of real estate companies' balance sheets, with a potential bottoming out of profits. The residential market shows signs of stabilization, and companies with quality investment properties are expected to perform well [11]. - Guotai Junan Securities notes that the liquor industry is undergoing a period of accelerated adjustment, with inventory clearing expected to lead to a rebound in stock prices [12]. - Penghua Fund anticipates that the domestic economy will seek balance between policy support and structural optimization over the next two to three years, favoring high-quality dividend assets [13]. Macro and Fixed Income - Huatai Securities recommends a focus on short-term credit bonds for defensive strategies, as overall credit demand is weakening [18]. - CICC predicts that monetary policy will accelerate easing due to ongoing export pressures, with expectations for rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [19]. - Bosera Fund indicates that domestic financial policies are favorable for the bond market, enhancing supply-demand dynamics [20].

Focus Review - China's October export performance was disappointing, with a year-on-year decline of 1.1%, significantly below the market expectation of 3% growth, and a previous increase of 8.3% [1] - Imports grew by 1% in October, down from a previous increase of 7.4%, resulting in a trade surplus of $90.07 billion, slightly lower than the previous $90.45 billion [1] - For the first ten months of 2025, China's total goods trade maintained steady growth, with a total value of $520.46 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, including exports of $308.47 billion (up 6.2%) and imports of $211.99 billion (down 0.9%) [1] Equity Market - Morgan Asset Management expressed an optimistic outlook for risk assets over the next 6 to 18 months, supported by healthy consumer balance sheets, gradual easing of Federal Reserve monetary policy, and ongoing fiscal stimulus [1] - CITIC Construction Investment is bullish on resource products, anticipating price increases driven by global monetary easing, supply-demand gaps, and domestic replenishment cycles [2] - China Europe Fund suggests that the market's struggle around the 4000-point mark reflects policy signals, increased risk appetite, and long-term capital inflows, with a focus on technology and economic cycle resonance investment opportunities [3] Industry Research - CITIC Securities highlighted that 2026 will be a critical year for the asset-liability repair of Chinese real estate companies, with expectations of a long-term profit bottom for some firms [4] - Guotai Junan Securities noted that the liquor industry is undergoing an accelerated clearing adjustment, with inventory levels decreasing rapidly after reaching a bottom, suggesting potential price rebounds [6] - Penghua Fund is optimistic about the domestic economy over the next two to three years, supported by low interest rates and a shift in asset allocation towards equities, favoring high-quality dividend assets [6] Macro and Fixed Income Market - Huatai Securities recommended a focus on medium to short-term credit bonds, with a preference for bonds with strong demand and good odds [7] - CICC anticipates continued downward pressure on exports, necessitating more policy support, with expectations for accelerated monetary policy easing [8] - Bosera Fund noted that the central bank's actions to ease funding fluctuations and a friendly domestic financial policy environment support improvements in the bond market supply-demand structure [8] Asset Allocation Outlook - As of November, domestic liquidity is expected to remain relatively loose, with potential fluctuations in external Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, leading to a possible rebalancing of market styles back to a barbell structure [9]

Core Viewpoint - Since 2021, the bond market has entered a prolonged bull market, with expectations that the yield curve may continue to steepen by 2026 due to the divergence between the new economy, represented by AI, and the traditional economy [2][4][5]. Group 1: Bond Market Outlook - The 10-year government bond yield has decreased from 3.2% at the beginning of 2021 to approximately 1.7% currently, driven by a slowdown in financing demand due to declining real estate and demographic changes [5][6]. - The overall bond yield is expected to remain on a downward trend, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to fall to between 1.2% and 1.5% by 2026 [10][12]. - The credit bond market may experience marginal weakening in demand, but support for short- to medium-term credit bonds remains strong, with credit spreads likely to stay at historically low levels [12][20]. Group 2: Economic Divergence - The global economy is witnessing a divergence between the strong new economy and the weakening traditional economy, influenced by various frictional factors such as fiscal constraints and geopolitical tensions [6][10]. - In the U.S., the persistent "three highs" issue (high inflation, high interest rates, and high wages) is expected to pressure traditional industries, leading to a slowdown in investment and hiring [6][9]. - The Chinese economy is also experiencing a similar divergence, with the new economy showing robust growth while traditional sectors like real estate and infrastructure face challenges [6][10]. Group 3: Credit Bond Dynamics - The demand for credit bonds may face fluctuations due to a slowdown in wealth management scale growth, but short-term credit bonds are expected to maintain support [13][20]. - The net increase in non-financial credit bonds is projected to remain concentrated in central state-owned enterprises, with an estimated net increase of around 1.8 trillion to 2 trillion yuan for the year [15][16]. - The credit risk for city investment bonds and state-owned enterprise bonds is expected to remain low, although uncertainties may arise post-2027 when the platform exit policy is fully implemented [20]. Group 4: Market Trends and Strategies - The volatility of convertible bonds in 2026 is anticipated to be lower than in 2024-2025, with a gradual recovery in the primary market expected [21][23]. - The issuance of public REITs is likely to accelerate under the guidance of regulatory policies, with potential catalysts including declining long-term interest rates and improvements in market fundamentals [29][30]. - The "productization" of fixed income markets is expected to gain momentum in 2026, highlighting the importance of constant ETF development [29].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The liquidity in the domestic market remains relatively ample, with the central bank conducting net withdrawals of 244.2 billion yuan last Friday and 64.8 billion yuan on Monday, while also injecting 68.5 billion yuan on Tuesday and 94.7 billion yuan on Wednesday [1] - The 7-day funding rate showed a slight increase, with DR001 remaining stable at 1.32% and DR007 rising by 2 basis points to 1.43% compared to last Friday [1] Group 2: Economic Performance and Outlook - In the first three quarters, the domestic GDP reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% year-on-year, with a quarterly growth of 4.8% in Q3 and a 1.1% increase quarter-on-quarter [3] - The economic performance in Q3 showed signs of weakening, particularly in fixed investment, while social financing growth has declined, which is favorable for the bond market [3] - The expectation of monetary policy easing is anticipated, especially if the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates in Q4, which would facilitate domestic monetary loosening [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The National Development Bank ETF (159650) focuses on interbank market national development bonds, which are characterized by high credit ratings, large volumes, and good liquidity, making them attractive investment options [3] - The product features of the National Development Bank ETF include good liquidity, low credit risk, and reasonable risk-return ratios, making it a suitable tool for short-duration allocations [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown signs of recovery in the bond market, supported by macroeconomic pressures and a loosening of monetary policy [1][2] - As of October 23, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF has accumulated a weekly increase of 0.59%, with a current price of 106.91 yuan [1] - The recent issuance of a 7-year fixed-rate government bond by the Ministry of Finance, with a total competitive bidding amount of 118 billion yuan and a coupon rate of 1.78%, reflects ongoing government efforts to manage debt [1][2] Group 2 - The latest scale of the 30-year government bond ETF has reached 17.588 billion yuan, indicating significant investor interest [2] - Over the past three days, the ETF has experienced continuous net inflows, totaling 344 million yuan, with a peak single-day inflow of 166 million yuan [2] - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange's 30-year government bond index, which is designed to reflect the overall performance of corresponding maturity government bonds [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Despite the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions last week, the export data in September remained strong. The inflation rate increased year-on-year in September, while the overall financial data continued to face pressure. Coupled with the sharp decline in the A-share market, the bond market rebounded after bottoming out, and the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active. The term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low, while the variety spread widened, and the absolute level was also low [1][3][10]. - Considering the economic situation, the probability of a bond market rebound in October is high. With the release of the third-quarter economic data next Monday, it is expected that the GDP growth rate in the third quarter will be 4.5%. Given the weak economy, the monetary policy is expected to continue to be relaxed, and the bond market rebound will continue. It is expected that the 30 - 10 spread will compress periodically, and the variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds will also compress again in the short term [2][3][11]. Summary by Directory Weekly Review Ultra-long Bond Review - Last week, the bond market rebounded after bottoming out due to multiple factors. The trading activity of ultra-long bonds increased slightly, with the term spread narrowing and the variety spread widening [1][10]. Ultra-long Bond Investment Outlook - **30-year Treasury Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, at a historically low level. With the expected bond market rebound, the 30 - 10 spread is expected to compress periodically [2][11]. - **20-year China Development Bank Bonds**: As of October 17, the spread between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and 20-year Treasury bonds was 10BP, at a historically extremely low level. The variety spread of 20-year China Development Bank bonds is expected to compress again in the short term [3][12]. Ultra-long Bond Basic Overview - As of September 30, the balance of outstanding ultra-long bonds was 23.7 trillion yuan, accounting for 15.0% of the total bond balance. Local government bonds and Treasury bonds are the main varieties. In terms of remaining maturity, the 30-year variety has the highest proportion [13]. Primary Market Weekly Issuance - Last week (October 12 - 17, 2025), the issuance of ultra-long bonds increased slowly, with a total issuance of 577 million yuan. Treasury bonds accounted for 400 million yuan, and local government bonds accounted for 177 million yuan [20]. This Week's Planned Issuance - The announced ultra-long bond issuance plan for this week totals 1,181 million yuan, all of which are ultra-long local government bonds [26]. Secondary Market Trading Volume - Last week, the trading of ultra-long bonds was very active, with a trading volume of 10,792 billion yuan, accounting for 11.8% of the total bond trading volume. The trading activity increased slightly compared with the previous week [29][30]. Yield - Last week, the yields of various types of ultra-long bonds changed. For example, the yields of 15-year, 20-year, 30-year, and 50-year Treasury bonds changed by -1BP, -2BP, -3BP, and -2BP respectively [37]. Spread Analysis - **Term Spread**: Last week, the term spread of ultra-long bonds narrowed, and the absolute level was low. The spread between 30-year and 10-year Treasury bonds was 38BP, 4BP lower than the previous week [46]. - **Variety Spread**: Last week, the variety spread of ultra-long bonds widened, and the absolute level was low. The spreads between 20-year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds and between 20-year railway bonds and Treasury bonds were 10BP and 15BP respectively [52]. 30-year Treasury Bond Futures - Last week, the main contract of 30-year Treasury bond futures, TL2512, closed at 115.87 yuan, an increase of 1.67%. The total trading volume and open interest increased significantly compared with the previous week [56].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has lowered the benchmark interest rate from 9.5% to 9.25%, marking the eighth consecutive rate cut since August 2024, aimed at stimulating lending to the private sector and supporting economic activity [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Monetary Policy - The CBK's decision to reduce the interest rate by 25 basis points is intended to encourage banks to lend more to the private sector [1] - There is potential for further easing of monetary policy while ensuring inflation expectations remain stable and the exchange rate is maintained [1] Private Sector Credit - Private sector credit has rebounded to 5% in September, following a decline to 3.3% in August and 2.9% in January 2025 [1] - The recovery in lending is particularly evident in the manufacturing, construction, and durable goods sectors [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent speech indicates a strong possibility of a rate cut in October, highlighting significant downward risks in the U.S. labor market and suggesting a potential end to the quantitative tightening policy [1][2]. Group 1: Powell's Speech Insights - Powell emphasized that the U.S. labor market shows considerable weakness, with both supply and demand for labor declining significantly [2]. - He warned that delaying action could increase the risks associated with loosening monetary policy [2]. - Powell hinted at the potential cessation of the quantitative tightening policy, as initial signs of tightening in financial markets have emerged [2]. Group 2: Market Expectations - JPMorgan's report stated that Powell's comments have solidified market expectations for a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on October 28-29 [3]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in October has reached 97.3%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool [3]. - Peter Cardillo from Spartan Capital Securities noted that while Powell acknowledges a robust economic foundation, he also recognizes existing issues, preparing the market for a series of rate cuts without implying they are guaranteed [3].

Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - The central bank's net injection of liquidity was 124.3 billion yuan on September 19, followed by a net injection of 260.5 billion yuan on September 22, indicating a marginal easing of the funding environment [1] - The central bank continued to implement net withdrawals, with a net withdrawal of 10.9 billion yuan on September 23 and 17 billion yuan on September 24, reflecting a tightening trend in the funding market [1] - The funding rates showed slight increases, with DR001 rising by 1 basis point to 1.47% and DR007 increasing by 9 basis points to 1.60% on September 25 compared to the previous week [1] Economic Indicators and Global Context - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI for September was reported at 49.5, a three-month low, below the expected 50.7, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [2] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted risks to both employment and price stability, suggesting that the labor market is showing signs of weakness and that asset prices may be overvalued compared to historical levels [2] Domestic Economic Outlook - Following the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut of 25 basis points, the Chinese monetary policy may accelerate easing in the fourth quarter, potentially leading to a reduction in bond yields [3] - The National Development Bank ETF (159650) is identified as a viable investment option due to its high credit rating, large scale, and good liquidity, making it suitable for short-duration allocations [3]