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中金:成交较快上行后的短线调整,无碍中期趋势
中金点睛· 2025-09-04 23:42
Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced significant volatility on September 4, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.25%, indicating a potential short-term adjustment after a rapid increase in trading volume and market performance [2][3][4]. Market Performance - On September 4, the A-share market showed weak performance, with major indices declining; the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 fell by 1.25% and 2.12% respectively, while the ChiNext Index and STAR 50 dropped by 4.25% and 6.08% [2]. - The trading volume on September 4 was 2.58 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the previous day, with nearly 3,000 listed companies experiencing declines [2]. Trading Signals - A turnover rate exceeding 5% is highlighted as a significant trading signal, indicating increased investor risk appetite and potential short-term volatility [3]. - Historical data suggests that when the turnover rate rises above 5%, the market often experiences subsequent adjustments, as seen in previous years [3]. Mid-term Trends - Despite short-term adjustments, the mid-term upward trend since September 2022 is expected to continue, with the market's overall valuation remaining reasonable and not overvalued [4]. - The current PE ratio of the CSI 300 is below 14 times, placing it in the 63rd percentile of the past 20 years, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to major global markets [4]. Earnings Growth - A-share earnings are projected to achieve positive growth this year, with a forecasted increase of 3.5% for 2025, driven by a favorable base effect and cost factors in the second half of the year [5]. - The recent policy emphasis on stabilizing the capital market is expected to bolster investor confidence, with ongoing attention to U.S. interest rate changes and domestic policy developments [5]. Investment Strategy - The focus is on the expansion and rotation of growth styles, particularly in sectors like semiconductors and new energy, while dividend-paying stocks are expected to show structural opportunities [6]. - The market is anticipated to continue exhibiting characteristics of style rotation, with strong sectors alternating, which may persist throughout the year [6].